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Volker C.

Radeloff, Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Post-USSR land cover change in Eastern Europe:


socioeconomic forcings, effects on biodiversity, and future scenarios
Background Approach Education Plan
Eastern European land cover has ò MODIS will provide data on current land use pattern. Informal education about LULCC will be facilitated via a
changed substantially since Spectral mixture analysis will be used to distinguish web-based active learning tool allowing simple
the breakdown of the USSR plowed from fallow fields wildlife habitat analysis and LULCC scenario
in 1990 ò Landsat TM/ETM+ data from modeling targeted for middle-school students
ò In some areas more than half of the farm- 1985 to 2002 will provide ò Web page visitors will examine LULCC from the perspective
land has been abandoned and is information on land cover of a European bison (Carpathians), a brown bear
converting to shrublands and forest change (North-central Russia) and a
ò Eastern Europe is ‘re-wilding’ and that ò Landsat scenes are selected saiga antelope (Kalmykia)
offers opportunities for biodiversity along political borders to ò The challenge to web page visitors
conservation separate environmental is to identify what makes good
ò This project will assess habitat Fig. 1 Change in agricultural constraints of LULCC from Fig. 3: Landsat scenes selected for
land cover change analysis and habitat. They will overlay
change affecting umbrella area in Russian oblasts from socioeconomic forcings cross-border comparisons animal locations on maps of
1991 to 19971
species for biodiversity roads, landcover, settlements, Fig. 6: Radiocollared bison in
ò The hypothesis is that agricultural
Poland
abandonment is controlled at broad etc. and rank the factors the Carpathians, Dec. 2004
ò Socio-economic trends and land
cover change differ markedly scales by the national economy Formal education will include six research internships for
among neighboring countries Slovakia and climate, and at fine scales by young scientists from Eastern Europe interested
with similar ecological conditions Ukraine
distance to markets, major roads, in remote sensing and LULCC science
ò This provides the opportunity to study topography, and soil quality ò Interns will join the research team for three months over the
ò Resource selection function will
N

transboundary differences in space Hungary


summer and take active part in this project
Fig. 2 Change in nighttime
ò The comparison of pre- and post-1990
20 0 20 40 60 Kilometers
identify habitat availability for ò Their main task will be a land cover classification for one
lights 1993-2000. Yellow and
red: more lights, blue: fewer land cover change provides data on
Fig. 4: Landsat TM scene
186/26 Sep. 2000, bands 4,5,3.
European bison, brown bear and Landsat scene in the study area
lights2
transboundary phenomena in time Note differences in forest cover saiga antelopes, three umbrella
at the Polish-Ukrainian border species for biodiversity ò Prior to their internship, candidates will collect ground truth
The project uses this ‘natural experiment’ to test data in the field
hypotheses on the relative importance of ò Three LULCC scenarios will be modeled using a land cover ò Collaboration will continue after interns return home
environmental versus socioeconomic factors as transition model
controls and forcings of land cover and land use ò Model results will reveal
potential future forest
change
de-fragmentation and
Significance
wildlife habitat change Fig. 5: Parcelization in the Ukrainian Carpathians.
The project uses state-of-the-art remote sensing methods to
Study Objectives monitor the patterns of land cover change in Eastern
Europe, thus describing the variability of global change
1) Monitor land use and land cover change (LULCC) across Timeline It integrates land cover with socioeconomic and environmental
Eastern Europe from 1985 to 2002 using MODIS and data in a ’natural experiment’ to examine the role of
Landsat TM/ETM+ Year Milestones socioeconomic change as a primary forcing function
2) Examine the role of socioeconomic and political changes on the Earth’s systems
2005 MODIS/TM image processing, socioeconomic data
as primary forcing functions affecting LULCC collecting, conceptual education web page design The response of ecosystems to these changes and the
consequences are assessed via the habitat analysis
3) Examine effects of LULCC in Eastern Europe on habitat 2006 MODIS/TM image processing, regression LULCC for umbrella species for biodiversity in Eastern Europe.
availability for umbrella species for biodiversity versus socioeconomics, resource selection functions And lastly, scenario modeling will predict the effects of different
4) Spatially model potential future LULCC scenarios across 2007 Accuracy assessment, future scenarios simulations, future land use trajectories on land cover and
Eastern Europe and examine potential biodiversity journal articles, web page dissemination biodiversity in Eastern Europe
changes

Footnotes Collaborators Contact Information


1 Data: www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/russia/ Linas Balciauskas (Vilnius University, Lithuania), Leonid Baskin (Russian Academy of Volker Radeloff
2 Red: lights much brighter in 2000; yellow: new lights in 2000; blue: lights dimmer or Sciences, Moscow), Patrick Hostert (Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany), Anna Department of Forest Ecology and Management Phone: 608-263-4349
missing in 2000; black: bright lights at both dates; gray: dim lights at both dates Lushchekina (Russian MAB Program and Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow), University of Wisconsin-Madison Fax: 608-262-9922
oblasts from 1991 to 1997 Data courtesy of C. Elvidge, NOAA-NESDIS Kajetan Perzanowski, (Polish Academy of Sciences, Ustrzyki Dolne, Poland), 1630 Linden Drive E-mail: radeloff@wisc.edu
Wolfgang Schröder (Technical University Munich, Germany) Madison, WI 53706 http://silvis.forest.wisc.edu