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UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA - UNAD

ACADEMIC AND RESEARCH VICE RECTOR


SYLLABUS OF THE COURSE THEORY OF DECISIONS

1. COURSE IDENTIFICATION

School or unit: School of Basic


Acronym: ECBTI
Sciences, Technology and Engineering
Level: Professional Field of formation: Disciplinary Training
Course: Theory of decisions Code: 212066
Type of course: Theoretical Number of credits: Three (3)
Course Designer: Ricardo Javier Pineda Course Updater: Ricardo Javier Pineda
Melgarejo Melgarejo
Elaboration date: June 01, 2017 Date of renovation: June 01, 2017
Course description:

The academic course consists of three (3) academic credits, whose field of training is
the discipline and has a professional nature- elective in the program of industrial
engineering that offer the UNAD; in addition, it is theoretical. After you understand and
internalize the knowledge of the three preliminary courses of operations research
(linear programming methods deterministic, probabilistic methods) and the support in
the acquired knowledge in statistics and probability and Statistical Inference, the
student is able to start the course of decision theory, where it seeks to understand the
methods, operations and definitions on the different techniques of application in the
decisions that depend on the type and quality of the information obtained.

The evaluation will be carried out in 8 phases with a learning strategy based on
problems. The Phase 1, belongs to the time of initial evaluation, at stages 3, 5 and 7
activities will be carried out type automatic qualification quiz. The phases 2, 4 and 6
are presented as collaborative work of the Units 1, 2 and 3, respectively, and in Phase
8, a project belonging to the final evaluation of the course.

1. FORMATION INTENTIONALITIES

Purposes of course formation:

 Generate in the student the ability for the interpretation of the results obtained in
the development of the algorithms of the decision-making process, through the
proposed algorithms for low certainty, risk and/or uncertainty.

 Differentiate the algorithms, their characteristics and application in different risk


environments and/or uncertainty, for the taking of decisions and the optimization
of the expected results.
 Provide the student with a clear tool for the solution of problems with any software
and the decision-making according to the results obtained in it.
The course competencies:

 The student identifies the basic concepts in the decision-making process, allowing
you to identify and implement the appropriate methods in the decisions under an
environment of risk or certainty.

 The student appropriate methods of expected value, decision trees, and utility
theory in the decision-making under risk, obtaining solutions to problems
presented in the professional field.

 The student uses the decisions under uncertainty, game theory and Markov chains
to put it into practice with several competitors and rivals, using technological tools
to develop an approximate simulation that allows solving various problems in the
professional environment.

2. COURSE CONTENT

Units / themes Educational resources required

Unit 1. Decisions in an environment


of risk

1. Expected value:

a. The criteria for assessing the Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for
possible solutions. Decision Making. New York, USA: McGraw-
b. The research design in the Hill Education Editorial. Retrieved from:
market. http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
c. The expected value of sample gin.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=23409
information. 8&lang=es&site=eds-live
d. Expected value of perfect
information.
e. Criterion level of acceptance.
Gilboa, I. (2001). A Theory of Case-Based
Decisions. Camdridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press Editorial. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
gin.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=72982
&lang=es&site=eds-live
2. Decision Trees:

a. Basic concepts of decision trees. Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision
b. Elements of decision trees. Trees: Theory And Applications, Bern,
c. Bayes rule and decision trees. Switzerland: H. Bunke, University Bern,
d. Troubleshooting decision tree. Switzerland. Retrieved from:
e. Polietapicas solutions. http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
gin.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=23603
7&lang=es&site=eds-live
3. Utility Theory:

a. Definition of the theory of the Gilboa, I. (2001). A Theory of Case-Based


utility. Decisions. Camdridge, UK: Cambridge
b. Features of the theory of the University Press Editorial. Retrieved from:
utility. http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
c. Indifference for assignments of gin.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=72982
the value of the utility. &lang=es&site=eds-live
d. Determination of the reason for
the utility. Pineda, R. (2017). Virtual learning object Unit
e. Applications of the theory of the 1. Decisions in an environment of risk. [Video
utility File]. Retrieved from
http://hdl.handle.net/10596/13263
Unit 2. Decisions in an environment
of uncertainty

4. Criteria of Laplace, Minimal,


Savage and Hurwicz:

a. The criteria for assessing the Joyce, J. (1999). The Foundations of Causal
possible solutions. Decision Theory. Camdridge, UK: Cambridge
b. Criterion of Laplace. University Press Editorial. Retrieved from:
c. The criterion of minimum value. http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
d. Criterion of Savage. gin.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=22816
e. Hurwicz criterion. 7&lang=es&site=eds-live

5. Game Theory:

a. General concepts of the theory of Prisner, E. (2014). Game Theory.


games. Washington, District of Columbia, USA:
b. Method dominated strategies. Mathematical Association of America
c. Zero-sum method and saddle Editorial. Retrieved from:
point. http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
d. Method mixed strategies. gin.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=80065
e. Graphical method. 4&lang=es&site=eds-live
Owen, G. (2013). Game Theory: Monterey,
California, USA: Naval Postgraduate School
Editorial. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/lo
gin?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.a
spx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=525603&lan
g=es&site=ehost-live

6. Analytical Hierarchy Process


(AHP):

a. Conceptualization of the PJA. Abdi, M. (2003). A design strategy for


b. Follow-up to the proposal and reconfigurable manufacturing systems
assessment of alternatives. (RMSs) using analytical hierarchical process
c. Common components of the (AHP): a case study: Manchester, UK:
analytical hierarchy systems. International Journal of Production Research.
d. Scales to measure the impact on Retrieved from:
the PJA. http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
e. Alternative solution according to gin.aspx?direct=true&db=buh&AN=1014909
the PJA. 5&lang=es&site=eds-live

Pineda, R. (2017). Virtual learning object Unit


2. Decisions in an environment of
uncertainty. [Video File]. Retrieved from
http://hdl.handle.net/10596/13270

Unit 3. Markov decision processes

7. Overview of the Markovian


process:

a. Stochastic processes. Ibe, O. (2013). Markov Processes for


b. Markov chains. Stochastic Modeling: Massachusetts, USA:
c. Classification of states in the University of Massachusetts Editorial.
Markov chain. Retrieved from:
d. Markov decisions process. http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
e. Static and dynamic problem. gin.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=51613
2&lang=es&site=eds-live
8. Dynamic programming model
of finite stage:

a. Definition of the models of finite Ibe, O. (2013). Markov Processes for


stage. Stochastic Modeling: Massachusetts, USA:
b. Dynamic programming method of University of Massachusetts Editorial.
finite stage. Retrieved from:
c. Method of successive http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/lo
approximations. gin.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=51613
d. Example finite stage dynamic 2&lang=es&site=eds-live
programming.
e. Markov decisions in finite steps.

9. Dynamic programming model


of finite stage:

a. Definition of the models of finite Dynkin, E. (1982). Markov Processes and


stage. Related Problems of Analysis: Oxford, UK:
b. Dynamic programming method of Mathematical Institute Editorial. Retrieved
finite stage. from:
c. Method of successive http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/lo
approximations. gin?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.a
d. Example finite stage dynamic spx?direct=true&db=e000xww&AN=552478
programming. &lang=es&site=ehost-live
e. Markov decisions in finite steps.
Pineda, R. (2017). Virtual learning object Unit
3. Markov decision processes. [Video File].
Retrieved from
http://hdl.handle.net/10596/13271

Additional Educational resources for the course:

Unit 1. Decisions in an environment of risk

Aven, T. (2008). Risk Analysis : The Risk Analysis Process: Chichester, UK: john wiley
& sons editorial. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/logi
n.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=323407&lang=es&site=ehost-live
Unit 2. Decisions in an environment of uncertainty

Kelly, A. (2003). Decision Making Using Game Theory: An Introduction for Managers:
Camdridge, UK: Cambridge University Press Editorial. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=120
445&lang=es&site=eds-live

Narahari, Y. (2014). Game Theory And Mechanism Design. New Jersey, USA: IISc
Lecture Notes Series. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=752
585&lang=es&site=eds-live

Unit 3. Markov decision processes

Piunovskiy, A. (2012). Examples In Markov Decision Processes: Singapore: Imperial


College Press Optimization Series. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=545
467&lang=es&site=eds-live

3. LEARNING STRATEGY

Description of the learning strategy:

The educational exercise to distance and virtual learning environments requires a sound
process of planning in front of the activities suggested for the students. In this sense, the
work items that require the joint participation of the members of the group, the need
arises to articulate the strategy of problem based learning (PBL and to facilitate the
process of formation of the student. This approach emphasize the self-learning and self-
training, processes that facilitated by the dynamics of the constructivist approach and
eclectic.

In the PBL approach promotes cognitive autonomy, is taught and learned from problems
that have meaning for students, the error is used as an opportunity to learn and not to
punish and gives an important value to the self-evaluation and qualitative formative
assessment, and individualized.

For this exercise, it is important to consider aspects such as the execution time of the
activity and the resources required for the solution of the problems found approximately
Knowledge. Any time you have considered these aspects can then begin to develop the
phases corresponding to the individual and collaborative work of the course.
4. DISTRIBUTION OF THE ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES OF THE COURSE

Activity to develop according to the learning


Week Content to develop
strategy
Phase 1. Recognize and analyze the problem
raised in an individual way.

Stage 1. Individually The student must read the


syllabus of the course in the environment of
knowledge, read the agreements of the course and
decide whether or not to accept accepts, welcomes
and must submit to the peers and the trainer in the
general forum of the course, revise the notebook of
the course, which is also found in the environment of
knowledge, finally fully update the profile of the
classroom, entering by participant should review their
data, photography, and other contact information.

Stage 2. Recognize the virtual environment of


collaborative learning environment in the
classroom: the student individually and check the
context of the activity.

Stage 3. Each participant enters the collaborative


1-2 Units 1, 2 and 3. learning environment, in the collaborative work and
Decisions under risk forum on the topic of discussion called Phase 1.
environments, Recognition of the course, willing to develop the
uncertainty and Markov activity and in accordance with the indications of the
integrative activities guide the student performs
individual contributions, relevant and efficient,
leaving leave evidence of the development of the
activity of recognition.

Stage 4. Develop activities that are contained in


the Guide.

Stage 5. Each participant at the end of their


contributions and consolidate its final intellectual work
in the environment of evaluation and follow-up the
document raised for the activity.

The product is expected to be a PDF file marked with


Name_Surname_102016_Phase 1, with the following
content:
Page 1.Home.
Page 2.Introduction.
Page 3.Conceptual Map.
Page 4.Recognition of the companions of
collaborative group.
Page 5. Crossword puzzle solved.
Page 6. Alphabet Soup.
Page 7. Definition of terms identified in the video in
English language.
Page 8. Conclusions.
Page 9. Bibliography according to APA standards.

Phase 2. Solve problems by applying the


algorithms of the Unit 1, taking into account the
following steps:

Stage 6. Individual Activity: With the reading and


analysis of the problem reflected in the integrated
guide of activities, which is located in the collaborative
learning environment, we review the scenarios raised,
preparing to discuss a solution to the problem. Do not
forget to gather the information needed to learn new
concepts, principles, and skills that will help you in the
process. In the collaborative work and forum on the
topic of discussion called Phase 2. 1 collaborative
work, the activity can start by convening partners,
identifying the roles and noting that you will take.
Group Activities:
3-4 Unit 1. Decisions in an
environment of risk
Stage 7. The team must have recourse to the
knowledge they already have, to the details of the
problems that are proposed and to be put in
discussion for later resolution. Consider the possible
algorithms that will need to solve each of the
problems proposed decisions in an environment of
risk. Generate collectively a list of methods of
response, and then solve manually using these
algorithms. Support the solution through the
investigation of knowledge and the bibliographic
sources that contain and explain each one of the
methods of solution.
Stage 8. Enter the practical environment, in this
space is the use of explanatory material WinQSB,
remember append using screen captures to their
collaborative work, income, and final results table for
the problems raised. In this same space can carefully
review the guide to the use of educational resources,
for the use of the software WinQSB, which is the most
widely used program in the solution of problems of
Operations Research and other software specialized in
the subject.

Stage 9. Individually fill out the journal of e-portfolio,


so you can check the registration of their difficulties
and strengths with the activity of the practical
environment, recognizing the contribution for their
professional life the use of algorithms of the course,
which is located in the environment of evaluation and
monitoring, as identified in the e-portfolio in the
conclusions of the collaborative work that is located in
the collaborative learning environment and
consolidate the final working group.
5 Unit 1. Decisions in an
environment of risk Expected product: PDF file marked with your work
group_212066_TC1, in Arial 12 and APA, with the
following content:

Page 1. Home with the members who participated


actively in the consolidation and generation of the
collaborative work.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Solved exercises according to
the theme proposal.
In the following pages. Screenshots WinQSB
exercises with the solution of Excel in the learning
environment.
Next Page. Conclusions With the e-portfolio.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA that
supports the solution of the problems.

Stage 10. The group leader must upload a single file


in PDF in the evaluation and follow-up, in the space
provided for this purpose, hereinafter referred to as
Phase 2. Collaborative Works 1.
Phase 3. Troubleshoot and analyze situations
raised in the evaluation of the Unit 1, taking into
account the following steps:

Stage 11. Individual Activity: Next to the


6 Unit 1. Decisions in an
development of the activities of the collaborative
environment of risk
works 1, the student must enter the environment
assessment and monitoring and in the specific link
called: Evaluation Unit 1 of the questions presented
in the same.

Phase 4. Solve problems by applying the


algorithms of Unit 2, taking into account the
following steps:

Stage 12. Individual Activity: With the reading and


analysis of the problem reflected in the integrated
guide of activities, which is located in the collaborative
learning environment, we review the scenarios raised,
preparing to discuss a solution to the problem. Do not
forget to gather the information needed to learn new
concepts, principles, and skills that will help you in the
process. In the collaborative works and forum on the
topic of discussion called Phase 4. Collaborative works
2, the activity can start by convening partners,
7-8 Unit 2. Decisions under identifying the roles and noting that you will take.
a risk environment Group Activities:

Stage 13. The team must have recourse to the


knowledge they already have, to the details of the
problems that are proposed and put in discussion for
later resolution. Consider the possible algorithms that
will need to solve each of the problems proposed
decisions in an environment of risk. Generate
collectively a list of methods of response, and then
solve manually using these algorithms. Support the
solution through the investigation of knowledge and
the bibliographic sources that contain and explain
each one of the methods of solution.
Stage 14. Enter the practical environment, in this
space is the use of explanatory material WinQSB,
remember append using screen captures to their
collaborative works, income, and final results table for
the problems raised. In this same space can carefully
review the guide to the use of educational resources,
for the use of the software WinQSB, which is the most
widely used program in the solution of problems of
Operations Research and other software specialized in
the subject.

Stage 15. Individually fill out the journal of e-


portfolio, so you can check the registration of their
difficulties and strengths with the activity of the
practical environment, recognizing the contribution
for their professional life the use of algorithms of the
course, which is located in the environment of
evaluation and monitoring, as identified in the e-
portfolio in the conclusions of the collaborative works
that is located in the collaborative learning
environment and consolidate the final working group.
9 Unit 2. Decisions under
a risk environment Expected product: PDF file marked with your works
group_212066_TC2, in Arial 12 and APA, with the
following content:

Page 1. Home with the members who participated


actively in the consolidation and generation of the
collaborative works.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Solved exercises according to
the theme proposal.
In the following pages. Screenshots WinQSB
exercises with the solution of Excel in the learning
environment.
Next Page. Conclusions With the e-portfolio.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA that
supports the solution of the problems.

Stage 16. The group leader must upload a single file


in PDF in the evaluation and follow-up, in the space
provided for this purpose, hereinafter referred to as
Phase 4. Collaborative Works 2.
Phase 5. Troubleshoot and analyze situations
raised in the evaluation of the Unit 2, taking into
account the following steps:

Stage 17. Individual Activity: Next to the


10 Unit 2. Decisions in an
development of the activities of the collaborative
environment of risk
works 2, the student must enter the environment
assessment and monitoring and in the specific link
called: Evaluation Unit 2 of the questions presented
in the same.

Phase 6. Solve problems by applying the


algorithms of Unit 3, taking into account the
following steps:

Stage 18. Individual Activity: With the reading and


analysis of the problem reflected in the integrated
guide of activities, which is located in the collaborative
learning environment, we review the scenarios raised,
preparing to discuss a solution to the problem. Do not
forget to gather the information needed to learn new
concepts, principles, and skills that will help you in the
process. In the collaborative works and forum on the
topic of discussion called Phase 6. Collaborative works
3, the activity can start by convening partners,
11 - 12 Unit 3. Markov decision identifying the roles and noting that you will take.
processes Group Activities:

Stage 19. The team must have recourse to the


knowledge they already have, to the details of the
problems that are proposed and put in discussion for
later resolution. Consider the possible algorithms that
will need to solve each of the problems proposed
decisions in an environment of uncertainty. Generate
collectively a list of methods of response, then solve
manually using these algorithms. Support the solution
through the investigation of knowledge and the
bibliographic sources that contain and explain each
one of the methods of solution.
Stage 20. Enter the practical environment, in this
space is the use of explanatory material WinQSB,
remember append using screen captures to their
collaborative works, income, and final results table for
the problems raised.

In this same space can carefully review the guide to


the use of educational resources, for the use of the
software WinQSB, which is the most widely used
program in the solution of problems of Operations
Research and other software specialized in the
subject.

Stage 21. Individually fill out the journal of e-


portfolio, so you can check the registration of their
difficulties and strengths with the activity of the
practical environment, recognizing the contribution
for their professional life the use of algorithms of the
course, which is located in the environment of
13 Unit 3. Markov decision evaluation and monitoring, as identified in the e-
processes portfolio in the conclusions of the collaborative works
that is located in the collaborative learning
environment and consolidate the final working group.

Expected product: PDF file marked with your works


group_212066_TC3, in Arial 12 and APA, with the
following content:

Page 1. Home with the members who participated


actively in the consolidation and generation of the
collaborative works.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Solved exercises according to
the theme proposal.
In the following pages. Screenshots WinQSB
exercises with the solution of Excel in the learning
environment.
Next Page. Conclusions With the e-portfolio.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA that
supports the solution of the problems.
Stage 22. The group leader must upload a single file
in PDF in the evaluation and follow-up, in the space
provided for this purpose, hereinafter referred to as
Phase 6. Collaborative Works 3.

Stage 23. Individually fill out the survey of self-


evaluation and COEVALUATION, which is located in
the environment of evaluation and follow-up, this
allows to identify the individual and group strategies
used for the development of the activities.

Phase 7. Troubleshoot and analyze situations


raised in the evaluation of the Unit 3, taking into
account the following steps:

Stage 24. Individual Activity: Next to the


14 Unit 3. Markov decision
development of the activities of the collaborative
processes
works 3, the student must enter the environment
assessment and monitoring and in the specific link
called: Evaluation Unit 3 of the questions presented
in the same.

Units 1, 2 and 3.
Decisions under risk Phase 8. Present the results of the proposed
15 - 16
environments, problems in the final project.
uncertainty and Markov
5. ACCOMPANYING STRATEGIES TEACHING

Description of the accompanying strategies to use in teaching this course

 Digital Teaching Strategies, which make reference to the way in which the teacher
teaches and provides training or effective teaching, so that, from a variety of virtual
information aid, the student understands through actions and formalizations the true
teaching applied to the activities of the Course.

 Interactive Learning, methodology that has taken a great importance in virtual


learning environments, thanks to the integration of technological tools and the
continued growth of digital resources that are integrated and used in autonomous
education. Web conferences and use of software covering the subject matter of the
course are the main spaces to be used to ensure that strategy.

Collaborative Learning, based on the resolution of problems of daily life and


productive students will face in their professional future, supported the latter in the
group discussion, the development of collaborative intellectual products and the
permanent use of the interactive forums of the synchronous activities and the media
as a means of that discussion and consolidation of final products.

 Accompaniment In-Situ and online, under the circles of interaction and Academic
and Social Participation - SCERP and accompaniment asynchronous via Skype will
ensure the continued attention of students to facilitate the development of the
proposed activities, work in small groups and individually.
6. COURSE EVALUATION PLAN

Moments of Products to be delivered Maximum Weighting


Week
the according to the teaching Score/500 /500
number
evaluation strategy points points
Individual product written in PDF
format, with the activities
1-2 Initial 25 25
described in the activity guide for
the reconnaissance activity.
Individual product written in PDF
format, with the activities
3 -5 50
described in the activity guide for
Intermediate the reconnaissance activity.
Unit 1 Individual Development of the
activity type Quiz that contains
6 50
certain questions to assess the
topics of unit 1.
Product group and written in PDF
format, with the activities
7-9 75
described in the activity guide for
Intermediate the collaborative activity 2.
350
Unit 2 Individual Development of the
activity type Quiz that contains
10 50
certain questions to assess the
topics of unit 2.
Product group and written in PDF
format, with the activities
11 - 13 75
described in the activity guide for
Intermediate the collaborative activity 3.
Unit 3 Individual Development of the
activity type Quiz that contains
14 50
certain questions to assess the
topics of unit 3.
Product group and written in PDF
format, with the activities
15 - 16 Final 125 125
described in the activity guide for
the final activity.
500
Total Score 500 points
points