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TUGAS MANAJEMEN RISIKO

“MODELING OF RISK MANAGEMENT FOR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT OF


YOGURT DRINK USING HOUSE OF RISK (HOR) METHOD”

Oleh:
1. Zulfa Ulin Nuha (145100300111004)
2. Amelia Tri Purnamasari (145100300111010)
3. Mohammad Ramdhan (145100300111036)
4. Hanun Ari Wulandari (145100300111058)
5. Besari Ahmad Wiyono (145100300111082)

Kelas I

JURUSAN TEKNOLOGI INDUSTRI PERTANIAN


FAKULTAS TEKNOLOGI PERTANIAN
UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA
MALANG
2017
The Asian Journal of Technology Management Vol. 9 No. 2 (2016): 98-108

Modelling of Risk Management for Product Development of Yogurt Drink


Using House of Risk (HOR) Method
Nur Eko Wahyudin and Imam Santoso*
Dept. of Agroindustrial Technology, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, University of Brawijaya, Malang

Abstract. Product Development is essential for the company to stay steady or advance in the market competition. However, the main
challenge in product development is associated with the uncertaincy risks that may appeared during the design process. Such risks may affect
the success rate of the product development and may contribute either to a small or a huge loss, in which the sustainability of the company
can also be affected. To mitigate the risks in product development, risk management is critical. CV. XYZ is a company producing dairy-
based products such as mozzarella cheese and yogurt. This research is aimed to identify the potential appeared risks, to arrange the priority
order of risk agents and to conceptualize the risk mitigation strategy to be applied. A Yogurt drink product development is needed by CV.
XYZ to support the company goals of the product and market expansion. House of Risk (HOR) method was used in this research. Two
phases included in the identification process, namely marketing and product development design. The research results have examined 20
risks with 27 identified risk agents. Using the Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP) value, and Pareto 80:20 principal, this study provides a
strategic guideline as how to mitigate the top-three identified risk agents.

Keywords: House of risk (HOR), product development, risk management, yogurt drink

1. Introduction be different and stand out more compared to


their competitors. However, Monsef & Ismail
With increasingly tight competition in the (2012) argued that, based on several case
market due to a fast-growing food sector, the studies, there was a low success rate in
survival of food industries are greatly affected product development project as indicated by
and challenged. Some challenges faced by the failure rate of ~80%. This was caused by
these industries include uncertain market several risk factors include operational risk,
demand, short product life cycle, rapidly market or competition risk, financial risk,
changing customer needs (Kim, 2013), a wide talent risk, cultural and political risk (Brash &
product variety, as well as, complex and length Capozzi, 2008). Vargaz-Hernandez (2011)
supply chain (Zhou et.al, 2015). Thus, to added that the risks associated with
survive in the competitive market, the food environmental, technical, human resources,
industries are substaintially depended on their integration, management, marketing, and
product development, either from redesigning strategic are critical success factors in product
an existing product or from creating a new development.
product.
The risk is a situation involving uncertainty of
Product development is the development of a certain event to happen within the particular
original products, product improvements, time interval (Lokobal, 2014). Selim &
product modifications, and new brands McNamee in Sarens et al. (2006), define risk as
through the firm’s own research and a concept utilized to indicate the effect of the
development efforts (Kotler & Armstrong, uncertainty regarding the event and/or the
2010). If the product development is result occurred from the event that might
successful, the company profits will increase allow the effect of materiality to happen
(Amue & Adiele, 2012); and new products will towards the organization’s objectives and

*Corresponding author. Email: imam.santoso.ub@gmail.com


Received: December 20th, 2016; Revised: February 10th, 2017; Accepted: February 21st, 2017
Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12695/ajtm.2016.9.2.4
Print ISSN: 1978-6956; Online ISSN: 2089-791X.
Copyright@2016. Published by Unit Research and Knowledge
School of Business and Management-Institut Teknologi Bandung
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The Asian Journal of Technology Management Vol. 9 No. 2 (2016): 98-108

goals. According to Susilo & Kaho (2010), the The objectives of this research is to identify
implementation of risk management enables the potential risks that may arise from Yogurt
the company to better control the associated drink product development, to clasify the
risk. Risk events are closely related to risk priority of risk agents and to conceptualize the
agents. Geraldin et al. (2009) argued that risk risk mitigation strategies using HOR method.
agents are factors that will most likely to cause Then, the design of risk mitigation strategies
the risk to happen. Thus, mitigation or risk was arranged in accordance with the criteria
handling needs to be carried out to reduce the and the needs of companies.
occurring risks (Yasa et al., 2013).
2. Research Methods
Many studies have reported the application of
risk analysis in food industries and non-food The identification of product development
industries (Kim, 2013; Lokobal, 2014; activity was applied on marketing and product
Nuchpho et al., 2014). Several methods such designing phase. Questionnaire was used as
as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy the instrument in this research. Determining
AHP, FMEA, Bayesian Network methods, and selecting the respondents were based on
have been widely used in the risk analysis, due the expertise in providing justification to the
to their accuracy results ( Chin et al., 2008; associated risks and their mitigation strategies.
Geraldin et al., 2009; Tampubolon et al., Four expert respondents, include the
2013). For example, Yet, et al., (2016) applied Company Director, Head of Marketing
Bayesian Network methods to analyze the division, Head of Production division, and
costs and the benefits of the agricultural Head of Research and Development division,
development project taking into account the were asked to answer the questionaire. Data
relevant risks. Tian & Yan (2013) used the were collected for 3 months, June -August
fuzzy AHP for risk assessment on the general 2016. The details of collecting and processing
design of the satellite. Likewise, the use of the data is explained as follows:
FMEA and fuzzy FMEA on the study of
product design system has also been reported 2.1. Mapping of Product Development
by Chin, et al. (2008). While, in a study of Activity
innovation and best practice in education; the The risk identification was started from the
application of the fuzzy concept to investigate planning phase, concept developing phase,
failure modes and effects analysis is integrated system level designing phase, detail designing
with fuzzy TOPSIS - fuzzy AHP (Kutlu & phase, testing and improvement phase, and
Ekmekçioḡlu, 2012). In addition to risk initial production phase in each stage.
analysis methods, house of risk (HOR) has
also been widely applied to assess and the 2.2. HOR Phase 1
risks, as well as to formulate an integrated risk HOR was used as the measuring method in
mitigation strategies (Lutfi & Irawan, 2012; this research. HOR Phase 1 was a severity
Pujawan & Geraldin, 2009). assessment of the risk event, risk agent
occurrence assessment, and correlation
CV. XYZ located in Jurnorejo Village, Batu, between the risk event and the risk agent
East Java is a dairy company producing a (Pujawan & Geraldin, 2009). The assessment
variety of dairy-based products, including was conducted by questionnaire sent to 4
Yogurt drink. Yogurt drink is a fermented (four) expert respondents. The results from
milk containing lactic acid bacteria, and is the questionnaire were used as the Aggregate
beneficial for digestion health. This product is Risk Potential (ARP) value, which further be
generally made from low-fat milk, diluted with used to determine the priority of risk agents as
water to reduce total solid or mixed with a basis for mitigation initiatives. Risk agent
yogurt to reduce its viscosity (Hartati et.al, priority was resulted from Pareto 80:20
2012). According to Yildiz (2010) and Tamime principle. The formula for ARP value is
(2006), the total solid in yogurt drink should provided in equation (1), below:
not more than 11%. ARPj = Oj ∑ Si X Rij ………. (1)

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Wahyudin and Santoso, Modelling of Risk Management for Product Development of Yogurt Drink Using House of Risk (HOR) Method

Description :
ARPj = Aggregate Risk Potential on risk 3. Results and Discussion
agent ‘j’, j = 1,2,3,….n
Oj = Occurrence of risk agent ‘j’, j = 3.1. House of Risk (HOR) Phase 1
1,2,3,….n HOR Phase 1 is the risk identification phase
Si = Severity of a risk, i = 1,2,3,….,n utilized to determine the priority of risk agent
Rij = Correlation level between ‘i’ risk and in which should be applied with the mitigation
‘j’ risk, ij = 1,2,3,…,n risk. HOR Phase 1 was carried out by
k = Respondent ‘k’, k = 1,2,3,…..,n implementing the risk identification and risk
assessment which included severity
2.3. HOR Phase 2 assessment, occurrence, and correlation level
HOR phase 2 was conducted to conceptualise between risk agent and ARP value calculation.
the mitigation strategy to be applied by CV The ARP value was used to see the risk agent
XYZ to tackle the appeared risk. The Total priority that will be applied with mitigation by
Effectiveness (TEk) of each strategy was ordering the ARP value from the smallest to
calculated using Equation (2), aimed to the largest.
explain the effectiveness level of mitigation 1. Risk Event and Risk Agent Identification
strategy in terms of handling the risk agents. The identification of risk event and risk
TEk = ∑ j ARPj Ejk k ……….. (2) agent was obtained from the expert
Description : respondents which includes the Director of
TEk = Total Effectiveness the company, Marketing division, Production
ARPj = Agregate Risk Potential on risk agent division, and also Research and Development
‘j’, j = 1,2,3,…..,n division. Twenty risk events followed by 27
Ejk = Correlation level between risk agent risk agents have been identified to be
‘j’ and mitigation strategy ‘k, jk = 1,2,3,…n pottentially appeared in each stage of product
k = Respondent ‘k’, k = 1,2,3,……n development activity. The details can be in
Table 1 and Table 2.
Then, the assessment of Degree of Difficulty 2. Severity Assessment
(Dk) on the respective mitigation strategies Severity is a measurement of how severe
was carried out using the Likert Scale with a 3- that the loss or damage may appear from
5 point scale. The value of 3 indicates that the various kind of targets. A ranking system is
mitigation strategy is less difficult to be then established on the severity of the
applied, the value of 4 shows medium appeared impacts (Hariyati & Rusdiansyah,
difficulty, and value of 5 shows that the 2009). The impact of an event was valued
mitigation is difficult to be applied. And the using the scale of 1 to 10 based on their
last step is to calculate the ratio of significance effects. The value of 1 has the
Effectiveness to Difficulty (ETD) to lowest significance meanwhile 10 has the most
determine the rank in the priority order of severe impacts. The severity assessment on
mitigation strategy that later will be applied. each identified risk event was examined from
The ETD is calculated based on formula as the questionnaire given to all selected
shown in equation (3): respondents. The result of severity assessment
TEk is shown in Table 3.
ETDk Dk ………. (3)

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Table 1.
Risk Event and Risk Agent of Marketing Phase

Risk Risk
Phase event Risk event agent Risk agent
code code
Inaccuracy research and
Error in analysis market
E1 A1 development division in analyzing
needs
market needs
Misunderstanding of marketing
Error in determining market
E2 A2 divisions in the determination of
segments
market segments
Research and development
Error in determining
E3 A3 division error in the determination
consumer needs
of consumer needs
Error of strategy
Marketing strategy error in the
E4 determination of market A4
Marketing

determination of market leader


leader
Error of determining Lack of information regarding the
E5 A5
competitor competitors
Risk in determining the Error of cost analysis
E6 A6
selling price and profit management
Risk of subsequent strategic
E7 A7 Error of management planning
planning
E8 Risk of failure in promotion A8 The lack of promotion
Misunderstanding of division of
Risk of errors in planning a
E9 A9 research and development in the
trial product
composition to make yogurt drink
A10 Error of promotions used
Risk of not being massive
E10 Promotions that are used do not
initial promotional products A11
follow the existing trend
Source: (Primary Data, 2016)

3. The Assesment of Correlation Level 4. Calculation of ARP Value


between Risk Event and Risk Agent ARP value shows the level of risk agent in
The following step is to asses the correlation relation to its frequency of appearance. High
between the risk event and risk agent. If the ARP value is proportional to the severity of
risk event caused the appearance of a risk the impact given by the risk agent (Lutfi &
agent, there is a correlation between the two Irawan, 2012). The ARP value was calculated
of them (Tampubolon et al., 2013). Using the based on the severity value, occurrence, and
data from the questionaire, the level of correlation obtained from previous steps. The
correlation is divided into the scale of 0 (no ARP value was calculated on each risk agent
correlation), 1 (low correlation), 3 (medium using the formula (1), and the results can be
correlation), and 9 (high correlation). The seen in Table 3. Below is the example of the
result of this assessment can be seen in Table ARP calculation:
3.
ARP1 = O1(S1 x R11)
= 3(5 x 9)
= 135

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Wahyudin and Santoso, Modelling of Risk Management for Product Development of Yogurt Drink Using House of Risk (HOR) Method

Table 2.
Risk Event and Risk Agent of Design Product Phase

Risk Risk
Phase Event Risk Event Agent Risk Agent
Code Code
A12 Invalid Market analysis
The flow of information that is
Errors in determining the
E11 not appropriate from the
concept of the product A13
marketing division to research
and development division
Error of division research and
Risk determination
E12 A14 development and production in
industrial scale
industrial scale determination
Risk of errors in
Error of Production Division in
E13 determining the A15
Yogurt Drink Production
composition of products
The flow of information is not
E14 Risk of increased costs of A16 appropriate from the marketing
product design division to division production
Error of management
A17
Selection of materials supervision
E15
incompatible Not having a fixed standard
Design

A18
material
Errors division of production
Risk of errors in
A19 and research and development in
E16 determining the critical
materials characterization analyze
point material
A20 Unskilled labor
Division of research and
Risk of control error development wrong in making a
A21
E17 determination industrial design according to company
design standards
A22 Lack of supporting technologies
Risk of reliability testing Raw materials used have
E18 A23
error yogurt drink different quality standards
Division research and
A24 development and production
Risk of errors durability
E19 incorrect in testing material
testing yogurt drink
Raw materials used have
A25
different quality standards
Division of marketing, research
and development and production
A26
Risk of errors in product incorrect in evaluating the
E20
evaluation products that have been made
The lack of information for
A27
product evaluation
Source: (Primary Data, 2016)

3.2. HOR Phase 2 mitigation strategy and risk agent. The values
HOR Phase 2 is the mitigation strategy for TEk, Dk, and ETDk were also calculated
planning stage. The mitigation strategy was in HOR Phase 2 to determine the order of the
arranged based on the correlation between the arranged strategy.

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1. Risk Evaluation about competitor identification an analysis


Risk Evaluation was performed to rank the (once in two weeks) (PA4).
risk agents necessary to be applied with the b) Error of Cost Analysis Management (A6)
mitigation strategy. Pareto Diagram was used Cost Analysis determines the
as a measuring instrument on this step, plotted sustainability of a product because cost
by ordering ARP values from the largest to the analysis calculates selling price and profit
smallest, followed by calculating the obtained inside its scope. It is important
cumulative value of risk agent and the to have an excellent cost analysis
percentage. This diagram functioned as a management in product development to
media to identify risk agent needed to be create a competitive product in the aspect
applied with the mitigation strategy. Three risk of price and profit. The applicable
agents were selected based on Pareto 80:20 mitigation strategies are repairing the cost
principle. According to the previous research analysis planning mechanism (PA5),
by Fendi & Yuliawati (2012), the Pareto conducting a cost analysis management
principle using the ratio of 80:20 illustrated training (PA6), and carrying out a
that 80% of the risk events appeared from frequent analysis on the raw material and
20% of the risk agents causative to the risk the selling price fluctuation (once in a
events. Figure 1 is the ARP Value Pareto week) (PA7).
Diagram from each risk agent. The most c) Error of Production Division in Yogurt
appearing risk agent was A5 lack of Drink Production (A15)
information regarding the competitors) with The error of yogurt drink production
the ARP value of 180. could generate a huge loss if this happens
frequently. The raw material to make
2. Mitigation Risk Strategy Arrangement Yogurt drink are highly perishable
Mitigation Risk Arrangement was used to therefore proper handling method is
handle the top three highestranked risk agents. critical to achieve the optimum quality of
Table 4 shows eleven mitigation strategies that finished good. The applicable mitigation
can be applied by CV XYZ to manage the strategies are conducting a training and
identified risk agents. The following are risk human resources development in
agents index along with the mitigation risk production division (PA8), recruiting
strategy that is applicable at CV XYZ. more experienced employees (PA9),
creating a fixed Production Standard
a) Lack of Information Regarding the Operational Procedure (PA10), and
Competitors (A5) supervising all production activities
One of the indicator to measure the (PA11).
market orientation is the competitors 3. Correlation between Mitigation Risk
(Setiawan, 2013). According to Li et al. Strategy and Risk Agent
(2006), the advantage of competition The determination of correlation value
defined as the ability of each company to between mitigation risk strategy and risk
create the value that is unable to be found agents was aimed to investigate the relation
in any of its competitors. The applicable and effect of mitigation towards the identified
strategies to mitigate this risk are risk agents. The assessment was carried out
collecting an additional using the questionaire . The level of
informationregarding the competitors correlation is divided into the scale of 0
(PA1), increasing the field observation of represents no correlation, 1 represents low
the competitors (PA2), conducting a correlation, 3 represents medium correlation,
comparative study with the competitors and 9 represents high correlation. The result
(PA3), and arranging a systematical and of the determination of the correlation
frequent planning schedule concerning between risk agent and risk strategy is shown
inTable 5.

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Table 3.
HOR Phase 1

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 A10 A11 A12 A13 A14 A15 A16 A17 A18 A19 A20 A21 A22 A23 A24 A25 A26 A27 Severity
E1 9 5
E2 9 6
E3 3 5
E4 3 6
E5 9 5
MARKETING
E6 9 6
E7 3 7
E8 3 6
E9 3 5
E10 9 3 5
E11 1 1 6
E12 3 5
E13 9 6
E14 1 4
E15 3 3 5
DESIGN
E16 3 3 5
E17 1 9 4
E18 3 4
E19 3 3 5
E20 3 3 5
Occurance 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 4 1 3 4 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 2
ARP 135 108 45 54 180 162 42 72 15 135 60 12 12 45 162 8 45 45 45 30 12 144 36 30 30 30 30
Ranking 5 7 11 10 1 2 16 8 23 5 9 24 24 11 2 27 11 11 11 18 24 4 17 18 18 18 18
Source: (Primary Data, 2016)

Description:
En = Risk Event
An = Risk Agent
ARP = Value of ARP
Empty column shows a value 0, indicating no correlation

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4. Calculation of TEk and The Result of Dk strategy. The highest value of ETD shows the
TEk value is necessary to asses the level of most effective mitigation strategy to avoid the
effectiveness from each mitigation strategy risk agents. The result of ETD calculation can
esigned to handle the appearing risk agents. be also be seen in Table 4. The example of
Each mitigation strategy was assessed using ETD calculation is as follows:
the Likert Scale. The TEk value was calculated 1620
using equation (2). Table 4 shows the result of ETDk = = 405
4
TEk calculation and Dk assessment. The
example of TEk calculation is as follows: 6. Table of HOR Phase 2
HOR Phase 2 (Table 5) indicated the order of
mitigation risk strategies applicable for the
TE1 = ∑(9 𝑥 180) = 1620
product development at CV XYZ. The
priority was arranged based on ETD value
5. Calculation ofETD Ratio from the largest to the smallest.
ETD calculation is important to determine the
rank of priority from the available mitigation

Figure 1. Pareto Diagram of the ARP Value

Table 4.
Risk Agents and Mitigation Strategy

Risk
Strategy
Agent Risk Agent ARP Mitigation Strategy
Code
Code
Collecting an
PA1 additionalinformation
regarding the competitors
Increasing the field observation
PA2
of the competitors
Lack of Information
Conducting comparative study
A5 Regarding the 180 PA3
with the competitors
Competitors
Arranging a systematical and
frequent planning schedule
PA4 concerning about competitor
identification an analysis (once
in two weeks)

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Wahyudin and Santoso, Modelling of Risk Management for Product Development of Yogurt Drink Using House of Risk (HOR) Method

Repairing the cost analysis


PA5
planning mechanism
Conducting a cost analysis
PA6
Error of Cost Analysis management training
A6 162
Management Carrying out a frequent analysis
on the raw material and the
PA7
selling price fluctuation (once
in a week)
Conducting a training and
PA8 human resources development
in production division
Recruiting more experienced
Error of Production PA9
employees
A15 Division in Yogurt 162
Creating a fixed Production
Drink Production
PA10 Standard Operational
Procedure
Supervising all production
PA11
activities
Source: (Primary Data, 2016)

Table 5.
HOR Fase 2

Mitigation Strategy
Risk Agent ARP
PA1 PA2 PA3 PA4 PA5 PA6 PA7 PA8 PA9 PA10 PA11
A5 9 9 9 9 180
A6 9 9 3 162
A15 9 3 9 9 162
TEk 1620 1620 1620 1620 1458 1458 486 1458 486 1458 1458
Dk 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 3
Etd 405 405 324 405 364.5 291.6 97.2 364.5 97.2 364.5 486
Ranking 2 2 8 2 5 9 10 5 10 5 1
Source: (Primary Data, 2016)

Description: planning mechanism, 6) Conducting a training


PAn = mitigation strategy number ‘n’ and human resources development in
An = risk agents number ‘n’ production division, 7) Creating a fixed
TEk = Total Effectiveness value Production Standard Operational Procedure,
Dk = Degree Of Difficulty value 8) Conducting a comparative study towards
Etd = Effectiveness to Difficulty value the competitors, 9) Conducting a cost analysis
Empty spaces shows the value 0, in which management training, 10) Carrying out a
represented no correlation frequent analysis on the raw material and the
selling price fluctuation (once in a week), 11)
The research suggested that there are 11 Recruiting more experienced employees.
mitigation strategies need to be applied in
yogurt drink production at CV XYZ. These 4. Conclusion
include: 1) Supervising all production activity,
2) Collecting of an additional information It was concluded that the product
regarding the competitors, 3) Increasing the development of the yogurt drink at CV. XYZ
field observation of the competitors, 4) were identified 27 the risk agents. From these
Arranging a systematical and frequent 27 risk agents, three were selected as the risk
planning schedule concerning about that needs immediate handling based on
competitor identification ana analysis (once in pareto diagram. Those risks were lack of
two weeks), 5) Repairing the cost analysis information regarding the competitors, Error

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of cost analysis management, and Error of Fendi, A. & Yuliawati,E. (2012). analysis of
production division in yogurt drink strategy for risk mitigation on supply
production. Eleven mitigation strategies were chain PT.PAL Indonesia (PERSERO)
obtained to be applied in product (Text in Indonesia). Prosiding Seminar
development of yogurt drink at CV XYZ Nasional Aplikasi Sains &
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108
Modeling of Risk Management
for Product Development of
Yogurt Drink Using House of
Risk (HOR) Method

Manajemen Risiko kelas I

Anggota:
Zulfa Ulin Nuha 145100300111004
Amelia Tri Purnamasari 145100300111010
Mohammad Ramdhan 145100300111036
Hanun Ari Wulandari 145100300111058
Besari Ahmad Wiyono 145100300111082
LANDASAN TEORI
 House of risk (HOR) adalah modifikasi
model failure mode and effect analysis
(FMEA) untuk pengukuran resiko secara
kuantifikasi dan model house of quality
(HoQ) untuk memprioritaskan agen resiko
yang harus ditangani terlebih dahulu.
 Pendekatan HOR bertujuan untuk
mengidentifikasi risiko dan merancang
strategi penanganan untuk mengurangi
probabilitas kemunculan dari agen risiko
dengan memberikan tindakan pencegahan
pada agen risiko.
LANDASAN TEORI
Menurut Luthfie dan Irawan (2012),
menyatakan bahwa penerapan HOR terdiri atas dua
tahap, yaitu:
1. HOR fase 1: untuk mengidentifikasi kejadian
risiko dan agen risiko yang berpotensi timbul
sehingga hasil output dari HOR 1 yaitu
pengelompokan agen resiko ke dalam agen
resiko prioritas sesuai dgn nilai Agregate risk
potential (ARP).
2. HOR fase 2: untuk perancangan strategi mitigasi
yang dilakukan untuk penanganan agen resiko
kategori prioritas. Hasil output dari HOR fase 1
akan digunakan sebagai input pada HOR fase 2.
LANDASAN TEORI
 HOR fase 1: bertujuan mengidentifikasi kejadian resiko serta
agen resiko penyebabnya. Proses pengerjaan HOR fase 1
memiliki tahapan berikut:
1. Identifikasi proses bisnis berdasarkan model SCOR. Pembagian
bertujuan untuk mengetahui dimana resiko tersebut
dapat muncul.
2. Identifikasi kejadian risiko (Ei) untuk masing-masing proses
bisnis yang teridentifikasi pada tahap sebelumya.
3. Pengukuran tingkat dampak (SI) suatu kejadian risiko
terhadap proses bisnis perusahaan. Nilai severity
menyatakan besar ganggungan yang timbul dari kejadian
risiko proses bisnis.
4. Identifikasi agen penyebab risiko (Aj), yaitu faktor apa saja
yang dapat menyebabkan terjadinya risiko yang telah
teridentifikasi
LANDASAN TEORI
5. Pengukuran nilai peluang kemunculan (Occurance)
suatu agen risiko. Occurance ini menyatakan tingkat
peluang frekuensi kemunculan satu agen risiko.
6. Pengukuran nilai Korelasi (Correlation) antara
suatu kejadian dengan agen penyebab risiko. Nilai
korelasi (Rij) terdiri atas (0,1,3,9) dimana 0 tidak
menunjukan hubungan, 1 korelasi kecil, 3 korelasi
sedang, dan 9 korelasi tinggi
7. Perhitungan nilai indeks prioritas risiko /
Aggregate Risk Potensial (ARP), Indeks prioritas
ini akan digunakan sebagai bahan pertimbangan
untuk HoR fase 2.
LANDASAN TEORI

Tabel 1.
Framework House of Risk HOR fase 1
LANDASAN TEORI
 HOR fase 2: untuk perancangan strategi mitigasi untuk
melakukan penanganan (risk treatment) agen risiko yang telat
teridentifikasi dan berada pada level risiko prioritas. Proses
pengerjaan HOR fase 2 memiliki tahapan berikut:
1. Menyeleksi agen risiko mulai dari nilai ARP tertinggi hingga
terendah dengan menggunakan analisis pareto. Agen risiko
tertinggi masuk kategori prioritas tinggi jadi input HOR fase
ke 2.
2. Mengidentifikasi aksi mitigasi yang relevan (PA) terhadap
agen resiko yang muncul. Penanganan dapat berlaku untuk
satu atau lebih agen resiko.
3. Pengukuran nilai koreksi antara satu agen risiko dengan
penanganan risiko. Hubungan korelasi dapat menentukan
derajat efektivitas dalam meredeksi kemunculan agen risiko.
LANDASAN TEORI
4. Mengkalkulasi total efektivitas (TEk) pada setiap
agen resiko dengan menggunakan perhitungan
sebagai berikut:

5. Mengukur tingkat kesulitan dalam penerapan aksi


mitigasi (Dk) dalam upaya mereduksi kemunculan
agen resiko.
6. Mengkalkulasi total efektivitas penerapan aksi
mitigasi/effectiveness to difficulty of ratio (ETDk)
dengan rumus sebagai berikut:
LANDASAN TEORI

Tabel 2.
Framework House of Risk (HOR) fase 2
Review Jurnal

Introduction
 Tujuan :
1. Mengidentifikasi potensi risiko yang timbul
dari pengembangan produk minuman yogurt
2. Mengklasifikasi prioritas agen risiko dan
mengkonsepkan strategi mitigasi risiko
dengan HOR (House of Risk)
Introduction
 Masalah : CV. XYZ berencana melakukan
pengembangan produk yogurt. Tantangan
dalam pengembangan produk berkaitan
dengan ketidakpastian risiko yang
mungkin muncul. Risiko dapat mempengaruhi
tingkat keberhasilan pengembangan produk
(rugi kecil/besar). Oleh karena itu perlu
dilakukan identifikasi risiko supaya risiko
dapat dikendalikan dan mampu untuk
merumuskan strategi mitigasi risiko
Introduction
 Author memilih masalah ini karena :
1. Berdasarkan beberapa studi kasus,
tingkat kegagalan pengembangan
produk lebih dari 80%
2. Tingginya tingkat kegagalan tersebut
disebabkan oleh faktor risiko, seperti
risiko operasional, risiko pasar atau
persaingan, risiko finansial, risiko bakat,
risiko budaya dan politik
Hasil dan Pembahasan
 Metode yang digunakan dalam menyelesaikan
permasalahan yaitu metode House of Risk
(HOR) dengan 2 tahapan
 HOR Tahap 1 adalah tahap identifikasi
risiko yang digunakan untuk menentukan
prioritas agen risiko yang harus diterapkan
dengan risiko mitigasi.
1. Identifikasi Risiko dan Identifikasi Agen
Resiko
 Responden ahli: Direktur perusahaan, divisi
Pemasaran, divisi Produksi, dan juga divisi
Penelitian dan Pengembangan.
2. Penilaian Tingkat Keparahan
 Tingkat keparahan adalah ukuran seberapa parah suatu kehilangan
atau kerusakan dapat muncul dari berbagai jenis target.
3. Penilaian Tingkat Korelasi antara Event Risiko dan Agen
Resiko
 Jika kejadian berisiko menyebabkan munculnya agen
risiko, ada korelasi antara keduanya. Dengan
menggunakan data dari kuesioner, tingkat korelasi
terbagi dalam skala 0 (tidak ada korelasi), 1 (korelasi
rendah), 3 (korelasi sedang), dan 9 (korelasi tinggi).
4. Perhitungan Nilai ARP
 Nilai ARP yang tinggi sebanding dengan tingkat
keparahan dampak yang diberikan oleh agen risiko.
Nilai ARP dihitung berdasarkan tingkat keparahan,
kejadian, dan korelasi yang diperoleh dari langkah
sebelumnya.
HOR tahap 2 : merupakan tahapan
perencanaan strategi mitigasi.
Evaluasi Risiko: Pareto digunakan untuk
menghasilkan 3 agen resiko terpilih. Prinsip
pareto menggambarkan 80% kejadian
muncul dan 20% Agen risiko yang sering
muncul yaitu A5 dengan ARP 180, kurangnya
informasi tentang pesaing
Gambar 1 merupakan diagram pareto ARP
dari agen resiko.
Gambar 1 diagram pareto ARP dari agen resiko.
Mitigation Risk Strategy Arrangement
 Correlation Between Mitigation Risk Strategy and Risk
Agent
Penentuan nilai korelasi antara strategi mitigasi risiko dan
agen risiko bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan dan efek
mitigasi terhadap agen risiko yang teridentifikasi
 Calculation of TEk and The Result of Dk
Nilai TEk diperlukan untuk menilai tingkat keefektifan dari setiap
strategi mitigasi yang diajukan untuk menangani agen risiko yang
muncul. Setiap strategi mitigasi dinilai menggunakan Skala Likert.

 Calculation ofETD Ratio


Nilai tertinggi ETD menunjukkan strategi mitigasi yang paling efektif
untuk menghindari agen risiko.
 Table of HOR Phase 2
 HOR Tahap 2 menunjukkan urutan strategi risiko mitigasi yang berlaku
untuk pengembangan produk di CV XYZ. Prioritas disusun
berdasarkan nilai ETD
 dari yang terbesar sampai yang terkecil.
 Originality penelitian: Peneliti memakai
metode HOR untuk menyelesaikan
permasalahan dalam pengembangan
produk minuman yogurt di CV. XYZ
 Hasil Riset: Penelitian menyarankan 11
strategi mitigasi yang perlu diterapkan
pada produksi minuman yogurt di CV
XYZ.
11 strategi mitigasi risiko
1. Melakukan pengawasan pada setiap kegiatan produksi
2. Menambah pencarian informasi mengenai pesaing
3. Meningkatkan observasi/survei lapang mengenai pesaing
4. Membuat jadwal perencanaan yang sistematis dan berkala tentang
identifikasi dan analisis pesaing
5. Memperbaiki mekanisme perencanaan analisis biaya
6. Melakukan pelatihan dan pengembangan tenaga kerja divisi
produksi
7. Membuat SOP produksi yogurt yang baku
8. Melakukan studi banding dengan pesaing
9. Mengikuti pelatihan mengenai analisis biaya
10. Melakukan analisis secara berkala terkait fluktuasi harga bahan
baku dan harga jual
11. Menambah tenaga kerja tetap tetap yang berpengalaman
Conclusion
 Terdapat 27 agen risiko, dengan diagram
pareto, 3 agen risiko dipilih sebagai
risiko yang memerlukan penanganan
segera, yaitu:
1. Kurangnya informasi mengenai pesaing
2. Kesalahan manajemen dalam analisis
biaya
3. Kesalahan divisi produksi dalam
memproduksi yogurt
 Terdapat 11 strategi mitigasi risiko
 Ide lain untuk memecahkan masalah yang
sama : ada, dapat menggunakan AHP, ANP,
Fuzzy, Bayesian Network, dll
 Kelemahan jurnal :
1. Susunan tabel dan gambar tidak runtut
sehingga membuat pembaca menajdi
bingung
2. Strategi mitigasi bersifat subjektif
sehingga tidak semua strategi cocok
digunakan pada CV tersebut
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Kusmindah, C., Sumantri, Y., dan Yuniarti, R. 2011.
Pengelolaan Risiko pada Supply Chain dengan
Menggunakan Metode House of Risk (HOR) (Studi
Kasus di PT. XYZ). Jurusan Teknik Industri Universitas
Brawijaya.
Luthfi, A. dan Irawan, H. 2012. Analisis Risiko Rantai
Pasok dengan Model House of Risk (HOR) (Studi
Kasus pada PT XXX). Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia Vol.
12 (1)
Wahyudin, Nur dan Imam S. 2016. Modeling of Risk
Management for Product Development of Yogurt
Drink Using House of Risk (HOR) Method. The Asian
Journal of Technology Management 9(2): 98-108