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Does Trade Cause Growth?

By JEFFREY A. FRANKEL AND DAVID ROMER*

Examining the correlation between trade and income cannot identify the direction
of causation between the two. Countries’ geographic characteristics, however, have
important effects on trade, and are plausibly uncorrelated with other determinants
of income. This paper therefore constructs measures of the geographic component
of countries’ trade, and uses those measures to obtain instrumental variables
estimates of the effect of trade on income. The results provide no evidence that
ordinary least-squares estimates overstate the effects of trade. Further, they suggest
that trade has a quantitatively large and robust, though only moderately statistically
significant, positive effect on income. (JEL F43, O40)

This paper is an empirical investigation of the income. The problem is that the trade share may
impact of international trade on standards of be endogenous: as Elhanan Helpman (1988),
living. From Adam Smith’s discussion of spe- Colin Bradford, Jr. and Naomi Chakwin (1993),
cialization and the extent of the market, to the Rodrik (1995a), and many others observe,
debates about import substitution versus export- countries whose incomes are high for reasons
led growth, to recent work on increasing returns other than trade may trade more.
and endogenous technological progress, econo- Using measures of countries’ trade policies in
mists interested in the determination of stan- place of (or as an instrument for) the trade share
dards of living have also been interested in in the regression does not solve the problem.2
trade. But despite the great effort that has been For example, countries that adopt free-market
devoted to studying the issue, there is little trade policies may also adopt free-market do-
persuasive evidence concerning the effect of mestic policies and stable fiscal and monetary
trade on income. policies. Since these policies are also likely to
To see the basic difficulty in trying to esti- affect income, countries’ trade policies are
mate trade’s impact on income, consider a likely to be correlated with factors that are omit-
cross-country regression of income per person ted from the income equation. Thus they cannot
on the ratio of exports or imports to GDP (and be used to identify the impact of trade (Xavier
other variables). Such regressions typically find Sala-i-Martin, 1991).
a moderate positive relationship.1 But this rela- This paper proposes an alternative instrument
tionship may not reflect an effect of trade on for trade. As the literature on the gravity model
of trade demonstrates, geography is a powerful
determinant of bilateral trade (see, for example,
* Frankel: Kennedy School of Government, Harvard Hans Linneman, 1966, Frankel et al., 1995, and
University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Romer: Department of
Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720. Frankel, 1997). And as we show in this paper,
We are grateful to Susanto Basu, Michael Dotsey, Steven the same is true for countries’ overall trade:
Durlauf, William Easterly, Robert Hall, Lars Hansen, simply knowing how far a country is from other
Charles Jones, N. Gregory Mankiw, Maurice Obstfeld, countries provides considerable information
Glenn Rudebusch, Paul Ruud, James Stock, Shangjin Wei,
Richard Zeckhauser, and the referees for helpful comments;
to Teresa Cyrus for outstanding research assistance and
helpful comments; and to the National Science Foundation regressions in Section II of this paper. Edwards (1995) and
for financial support. Dani Rodrik (1995b) survey the literature.
1 2
See, for example, Michael Michaely (1977), Gershon For examples of this approach, see J. Bradford De
Feder (1983), Roger C. Kormendi and Philip G. Meguire Long and Lawrence H. Summers (1991), Fischer (1991,
(1985), Stanley Fischer (1991, 1993), David Dollar (1992), 1993), Dollar (1992), William Easterly (1993), Edwards
Ross Levine and David Renelt (1992), Sebastian Edwards (1993), Jong-Wha Lee (1993), Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew
(1993), Ann Harrison (1996), and the ordinary least-squares Warner (1995), and Harrison (1996).
379
380 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

about the amount that it trades. For example, the come by asking whether larger countries have
fact that New Zealand is far from most other higher incomes.
countries reduces its trade; the fact that Belgium The reason that this issue complicates our test
is close to many of the world’s most populous of the impact of international trade is that coun-
countries increases its trade. try size and proximity to other countries are
Equally important, countries’ geographic negatively correlated. Because Germany is
characteristics are not affected by their incomes, larger than Belgium, the average German is
or by government policies and other factors that farther from other countries than the average
influence income. More generally, it is difficult Belgian is. Thus in using proximity to estimate
to think of reasons that a country’s geographic international trade’s effect on income, it is
characteristics could have important effects on necessary to control for country size. Similarly,
its income except through their impact on trade. in using country size to test whether within-
Thus, countries’ geographic characteristics can country trade raises income, it is necessary to
be used to obtain instrumental variables esti- control for international trade.
mates of trade’s impact on income. That is the To construct the instrument for interna-
goal of this paper.3 tional trade, we first estimate a bilateral trade
The remainder of the paper contains two equation and then aggregate the fitted values
main sections. The first describes the impact of of the equation to estimate a geographic com-
geographic characteristics on trade in more de- ponent of countries’ overall trade. In contrast
tail and uses geographic variables to construct to conventional gravity equations for bilateral
an instrument for international trade. As we trade, our trade equation includes only geo-
discuss there, there is one important complica- graphic characteristics: countries’ sizes, their
tion to our basic argument that geographic vari- distances from one another, whether they
ables can be used to construct an instrument for share a border, and whether they are land-
international trade in a cross-country income locked. This ensures that the instrument
regression. Just as a country’s income may be depends only on countries’ geographic char-
influenced by the amount its residents trade with acteristics, not on their incomes or actual
foreigners, it may also be influenced by the trading patterns. We find that these geo-
amount its residents trade with one another. graphic characteristics are important determi-
And just as geography is an important determi- nants of countries’ overall trade.
nant of international trade, it is also an impor- The second main section of the paper em-
tant determinant of within-country trade. In ploys the instrument to investigate the impact of
particular, residents of larger countries tend to trade on income. We estimate cross-country re-
engage in more trade with their fellow citizens gressions of income per person on international
simply because there are more fellow citizens to trade and country size by instrumental variables
trade with. For example, Germans almost surely (IV), and compare the results with ordinary
trade more with Germans than Belgians do with least-squares (OLS) estimates of the same equa-
Belgians. This suggests a second geography- tions. There are five main findings.
based test of the impact of trade on income: we First, we find no evidence that the positive
can test whether within-country trade raises in- association between international trade and in-
come arises because countries whose incomes
are high for other reasons engage in more trade.
On the contrary, in every specification we con-
3
Lee (1993) also uses information on countries’ dis- sider, the IV estimate of the effect of trade is
tances from one another to construct a measure of their
propensity to trade. His approach differs from ours in two
larger than the OLS estimate, often by a con-
major respects. First, his measure is based not only on siderable margin. Section II, subsection E, in-
countries’ geographic characteristics, but also on their ac- vestigates possible reasons that the IV estimate
tual trade patterns; thus it is potentially correlated with other exceeds the OLS one.
determinants of income. Second, he does not investigate the Second, the point estimates suggest that the
relationship between income and his measure of the pro-
pensity to trade, but only the relationship between income impact of trade is substantial. In a typical spec-
and the interaction of his measure with indicators of distor- ification, the estimates imply that increasing the
tionary trade policies. ratio of trade to GDP by one percentage point
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 381

raises income per person by between one-half Similarly, within-country trade is a function of
and two percent. the country’s size, S i , and other factors:
Third, the estimates also imply that in-
creased size raises income. This supports the
(3) W i 5 h 1 l S i 1 n i.
hypothesis that greater within-country trade
raises income.
Fourth, the large estimated positive effects of The residuals in these three equations, « i , d i ,
trade and size are robust to changes in specifi- and n i , are likely to be correlated. For example,
cation, sample, and construction of the countries with good transportation systems, or
instrument. with government policies that promote compe-
Fifth, the impacts of trade and size are not tition and reliance on markets to allocate re-
estimated very precisely. The null hypothesis that sources, are likely to have high international
these variables have no effect is typically only and within-country trade given their geographic
marginally rejected at conventional levels. As a characteristics, and high incomes given their
result, the estimates still leave considerable uncer- trade.
tainty about the magnitudes of their effects. The key identifying assumption of our anal-
ysis is that countries’ geographic characteristics
(their P i ’s and S i ’s) are uncorrelated with the
I. Constructing the Instrument residuals in equations (1) and (3). Proximity and
size are not affected by income or by other
A. Background factors, such as government policies, that affect
income. And as we observe in the introduction,
Our basic ideas can be described using a it is difficult to think of important ways that
simple three-equation model. First, average in- proximity and size might affect income other
come in country i is a function of economic than through their impact on how much a coun-
interactions with other countries (“international try’s residents interact with foreigners and with
trade” for short), economic interactions within one another.
the country (“within-country trade”), and other Given the assumption that P and S are un-
factors: correlated with «, data on Y, T, W, P, and S
would allow us to estimate equation (1) by
(1) ln Y i 5 a 1 b T i 1 g W i 1 « i . instrumental variables: P and S are correlated
with T and W [by (2) and (3)], and are uncor-
Here Y i is income per person, T i is international related with « (by our identifying assumption).
trade, W i is within-country trade, and « i reflects Unfortunately, however, there are no data on
other influences on income. As the vast litera- within-country trade. Ideally, we would want
ture on trade describes, there are many channels data comparable to measures of international
through which trade can affect income—nota- trade. That is, we would want a measure of the
bly specialization according to comparative ad- value of the exchange of all goods and services
vantage, exploitation of increasing returns from among individuals within a country, both across
larger markets, exchange of ideas through com- and within firms. This measure would probably
munication and travel, and spread of technology be many times GDP for most countries. But no
through investment and exposure to new goods. such measure exists.
Because proximity promotes all of these types To address this problem, we substitute (3)
of interactions, our approach cannot identify the into (1) to obtain
specific mechanisms through which trade af-
fects income. (4) ln Y i
The other two equations concern the determinants
of international and within-country trade. Interna- 5 a 1 b T i 1 g ~ h 1 l S i 1 n i! 1 « i
tional trade is a function of a country’s proximity to
other countries, Pi, and other factors: 5 ~ a 1 gh ! 1 b T i 1 gl S i

(2) T i 5 c 1 f P i 1 d i. 1 ~ gn i 1 « i !.
382 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

Our identifying assumption implies that P i and theory provides little guidance about the best
S i are uncorrelated with the composite residual, measure of size. We therefore use two natural
gn i 1 « i . Thus (4) can be estimated by instru- measures, population and area, both in logs. In
mental variables, with P i and S i (and the con- interpreting the results concerning size, we fo-
stant) as the instruments. cus on the sum of the coefficients on log pop-
Note that estimation of (4) yields an esti- ulation and log area. Thus we consider the
mate not only of b, international trade’s im- impact of an increase in population and area
pact on income, but also of gl, country size’s together, with no change in population density.
impact on income. Since the two components Such a change clearly increases the scope for
of this coefficient are not identified sepa- within-country trade.5
rately, one cannot obtain an estimate of g, the To measure proximity, we need an appropri-
effect of within-country trade on income. But ate weighted average of distance or ease of
as long as l is positive—that is, as long as exchange between a given country and every
larger countries have more within-country other country in the world. To choose the
trade—the sign of g is the same as the sign of weights to put on the different counties, we
gl. Thus, although we cannot estimate the begin by estimating an equation for bilateral
magnitude of the impact of within-country trade as a function of distance, size, and so on.
trade on income, we can obtain evidence We then use the estimated equation to find fitted
about its sign. values of trade between countries i and j as a
As we argue in the introduction (and verify share of i’s GDP. Finally, we aggregate over j
below), P i and S i are negatively correlated: the to obtain a geographic component of country i’s
larger a country is, the farther its typical resi- total trade, T i . It is this geographic component
dent is from other countries. Thus if we do not of T i that we use as our measure of proximity.
control for size in (4), P i will be negatively The remainder of this section describes the spe-
correlated with the residual, and thus will not be cifics of how we do this.
a valid instrument. Intuitively, smaller countries
may engage in more trade with other countries B. The Bilateral Trade Equation
simply because they engage in less within-
country trade. This portion of the geographic Work on the gravity model of bilateral trade
variation in international trade cannot be used to shows that trade between two countries is neg-
identify trade’s impact on income. Similarly, if atively related to the distance between them and
we fail to control for T i in (4), S i will be positively related to their sizes, and that a log-
negatively correlated with the residual. Thus, linear specification characterizes the data fairly
our approach requires us to examine the impacts well. Thus, a minimal specification of the bilat-
of both international trade and country size. eral trade equation is
To estimate (4), we need data on four vari-
ables: income (Y ), international trade (T ), size (5) ln~ t ij /GDPi ! 5 a 0 1 a 1 ln D ij 1 a 2 ln S i
(S), and proximity (P). We measure the first
three in the usual ways. Our measure of income 1 a 3 ln S j 1 e ij ,
is real income per person. Following standard
practice, we measure international trade as im- where t ij is bilateral trade between countries i
ports plus exports divided by GDP. This is and j (measured as exports plus imports), D ij is
clearly an imperfect measure of economic in- the distance between them, and S i and S j are
teractions with other countries, an issue we re- measures of their sizes.
turn to in Section II, subsection E.4 Finally, This specification omits a considerable amount
of geographic information about trade. The equa-
tion that we estimate therefore differs from (5) in
4
Using the log of the trade share instead of the level
does not affect our conclusions. Examining import and
5
export shares separately yields, not surprisingly, the result Throughout the paper, we use the labor force as our
that the geographic components of the two shares are almost measure of population in computing income per person and
identical. Thus our approach cannot separate the effects of in measuring country size. Using total population instead
imports and exports. makes little difference to the results.
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 383

three ways. First, as described above, we include great-circle distance between countries’ princi-
two measures of size: log population and log area. pal cities. The information on areas, common
Second, whether countries are landlocked and borders, and landlocked countries is from Rand
whether they have a common border have impor- McNally (1993). Finally, the data on population
tant effects on trade; we therefore include dummy are from the Penn World Table.7
variables for these factors. And third, a large part The results are shown in Table 1. The first
of countries’ trade is with their immediate neigh- column shows the estimated coefficients and
bors. Since our goal is to identify geographic standard errors on the variables other than the
influences on overall trade, we therefore include common-border dummy and its interactions.
interaction terms of all of the variables with the These estimates are shown in the second
common-border dummy. column.8
The fact that we are measuring trade relative The results are generally as expected. Dis-
to country i’s GDP means that we are already tance has a large and overwhelmingly signifi-
including a measure of i’s size. We therefore do cant negative impact on bilateral trade; the
not constrain the coefficients on the population estimated elasticity of trade with respect to dis-
measures for the two countries, or the coeffi- tance is slightly less (in absolute value) than
cients on the area measures, to be equal. We do, 21. Trade between country i and country j is
however, constrain the coefficients on the land- strongly increasing in j’s size; the elasticity with
locked dummies, and their interactions with the respect to j’s population is about 0.6. In addi-
common-border dummy, to be equal for i and tion, trade (as a fraction of i’s GDP) is decreas-
j. 6 Thus, the equation we estimate is ing in i’s size and in j’s area. And if one of the
countries is landlocked, trade falls by about a
third.
~6! ln~ t ij /GDPi ! Because only a small fraction of country pairs
share a border, the coefficients on the common-
5 a 0 1 a 1 ln D ij 1 a 2 ln N i 1 a 3 ln A i border variables are not estimated precisely.
Nonetheless, the point estimates imply that
1 a 4 ln N j 1 a 5 ln A j 1 a 6 ~L i 1 L j ! sharing a border has a considerable effect on
trade. Evaluated at the mean value of the vari-
1 a 7 B ij 1 a 8 B ij ln D ij 1 a 9 B ij ln N i ables conditional on sharing a border, the esti-
mates imply that a common border raises trade
1 a 10 B ij ln A i 1 a 11 B ij ln N j by a factor of 2.2. The estimates also imply that
the presence of a common border alters the
1 a 12 B ij ln A j 1 a 13 B ij ~L i 1 L j ! 1 e ij ,
effects of the other variables substantially. For
example, the estimated elasticity with respect to
where N is population, A is area, L is a dummy country j’s population across a shared border is
for landlocked countries, and B is a dummy for 0.47 rather than 0.61, and the estimated elastic-
a common border between two countries. ity with respect to distance is 20.70 rather than
20.85.
C. Data and Results Most importantly, the regression confirms

We use the same bilateral trade data as


7
Frankel et al. (1995) and Frankel (1997); the We use Mark 5.6 of the table, which is distributed by
data are originally from the IFS Direction of the National Bureau of Economic Research. This is an
updated version of the data described in Robert Summers
Trade statistics. They are for 1985, and cover and Alan Heston (1991). The capital city is used as the
trade among 63 countries. Following these pa- principal city, except for a small number of cases where the
pers, we drop observations where recorded bi- capital is far from the center of the country (in terms of
lateral trade is zero. Distance is measured as the population). In these cases, a more centrally located large
city is chosen. For the United States, for example, Chicago
rather than Washington is used as the principal city.
8
The coefficient on the common-border variable itself is
6
Allowing them to differ changes the results only triv- therefore shown as the coefficient on the interaction of the
ially. common-border dummy with the constant.
384 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

TABLE 1—THE BILATERAL TRADE EQUATION where a is the vector of coefficients in (6) (a 0 ,
a 1 , ..., a 13 ), and Xij is the vector of right-hand
Variable Interaction side variables (1, ln D ij , ..., B ij [L i 1 L j ]). Our
Constant 26.38 5.10 estimate of the geographic component of coun-
(0.42) (1.78) try i’s overall trade share is then
Ln distance 20.85 0.15

Ln population
(country i)
(0.04)
20.24
(0.03)
(0.30)
20.29
(0.18)
(8) T̂ i 5 Oe
jÞi
â*Xij
.
Ln area 20.12 20.06
(country i) (0.02) (0.15) That is, our estimate of the geographic component
Ln population 0.61 20.14
(country j) (0.03) (0.18) of country i’s trade is the sum of the estimated
Ln area 20.19 20.07 geographic components of its bilateral trade with
(country j) (0.02) (0.15) each other country in the world.10
Landlocked 20.36 0.33 All that is needed to perform the calculations
(0.08) (0.33)
Sample size 3220
in equation (8) are countries’ populations and
R2 0.36 geographic characteristics. We therefore take
SE of regression 1.64 the sum in (8) not just over the countries cov-
ered by the bilateral trade data set, but over all
Notes: The dependent variable is ln( t ij /GDPi ). The first countries in the world.11 Similarly, we are able
column reports the coefficient on the variable listed, and the
second column reports the coefficient on the variable’s to find the constructed trade share, T̂, for all
interaction with the common-border dummy. Standard er- countries, not just those for which we have
rors are in parentheses. bilateral trade data. Since our income regres-
sions will also require data on trade and income,
however, we limit our calculation of T̂ to the
that geographic variables are major determi- countries in the Penn World Table. Thus we
nants of bilateral trade. The R 2 of the regression compute T̂ for 150 countries.
is 0.36. The next step is to aggregate across
countries and see if geographic variables are E. The Quality of the Instrument
also important to overall trade.9
Figure 1 is a scatterplot of the true overall
D. Implications for Aggregate Trade trade share, T, against the constructed share, T̂.
The figure shows that geographic variables ac-
To find the implications of our estimates for count for a major part of the variation in overall
the geographic component of countries’ overall trade. The correlation between T and T̂ is 0.62.
trade, we aggregate the fitted values from the As column (1) of Table 2 shows, a regression of
bilateral trade equation. That is, we first rewrite
equation (6) as

(7) ln~ t ij /GDPi ! 5 a9X ij 1 e ij ,


10
The expectation of t ij /GDPi conditional on Xij is
actually equal to e â*Xij times E[e e ij]. Since we are modeling
e ij as homoskedastic, however, E[e e ij] is the same for all
observations, and thus multiplies T̂ i by a constant. This has
9
The standard errors reported in Table 1 are conven- no implications for the subsequent analysis, and is therefore
tional OLS standard errors. It is likely that the residuals of omitted for simplicity.
the bilateral trade equation are not completely independent, 11
For convenience, we omit a handful of countries with
and thus that the reported standard errors are too low. But as populations less than 100,000: Antigua and Barbuda,
described in Section II, subsection B, uncertainty about the Greenland, Kiribati, Liechtenstein, the Marshall Islands,
parameters of the bilateral trade equation contributes only a Micronesia, Monaco, Nauru, St. Kitts and Nevis, and San
small amount to the standard errors of the cross-country Marino. In addition, for countries that are not in the Penn
income regressions that we ultimately estimate. For exam- World Table, we have data on population but not on the
ple, doubling the variance-covariance matrix of the esti- labor force. To estimate the labor force for these countries,
mated parameters of the bilateral trade equation increases we multiply their populations by the average ratio of the
the standard error of the coefficient on the trade share in our labor force to population among the countries in the same
baseline cross-country regression [column (2) of Table 3] continent that are in the Penn World Table. We use the Penn
by less than 10 percent. World Table’s definitions of the continents.
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 385

TABLE 2—THE RELATION BETWEEN ACTUAL AND


CONSTRUCTED OVERALL TRADE

(1) (2) (3)


Constant 46.41 218.58 166.97
(4.10) (12.89) (18.88)
Constructed trade share 0.99 0.45
(0.10) (0.12)
Ln population 26.36 24.72
(2.09) (2.06)
Ln area 28.93 26.45
(1.70) (1.77)
Sample size 150 150 150
R2 0.38 0.48 0.52
SE of regression 36.33 33.49 32.19

FIGURE 1. ACTUAL VERSUS CONSTRUCTED TRADE SHARE Notes: The dependent variable is the actual trade share.
Standard errors are in parentheses.

T on a constant and T̂ yields a coefficient on T̂


of essentially one and a t-statistic of 9.5. however, is that the constructed trade share still
As described in subsection A of this section, contains a considerable amount of information
however, the component of the constructed trade about actual trade. For example, its t-statistic in
share that is correlated with country size cannot be column (3) is 3.6; this corresponds to an F-statistic
used to estimate trade’s impact on income: smaller of 13.1. As the results in the next section show,
countries may engage in more international trade this means that the constructed trade share con-
but in less within-country trade. That is, our iden- tains enough information about actual trade for IV
tification of trade’s impact on income will come estimation to produce only moderate standard er-
from the component of the excluded exogenous rors for the estimated impact of trade. Further-
variable (the constructed trade share) that is un- more, the results of Douglas Staiger and James H.
correlated with the other exogenous variables (the Stock (1997), Charles R. Nelson and Richard
size measures). Startz (1990), and Alastair R. Hall et al. (1996)
The constructed trade share is in fact highly imply that these first-stage F-statistics are large
correlated with country size. For example, the enough that the finite-sample bias of instrumental
five countries with the smallest constructed variables—which biases the IV estimate toward
shares all have areas over 1,000,000 square the OLS estimate—is unlikely to be a serious
miles, and the five with the largest constructed problem in our IV regressions.
shares all have areas under 10,000 square miles. Figure 2, Panel A, shows the partial association
A regression of the constructed trade share on a between the actual and constructed trade shares
constant, log population, and log area yields controlling for the size measures. The figure
negative and significant coefficients on both shows that although the relationship is not as
size measures and an R 2 of 0.45. strong as the simple relationship shown in
Thus in examining whether geographic variables Figure 1, it is still positive. The figure also shows
provide useful information about international trade, that there are two large outliers in the relationship:
we need to ask whether they provide information Luxembourg, which has an extremely high fitted
beyond that contained in country size. Columns (2) trade share given its size, and Singapore, which
and (3) of Table 2 therefore compare a regression of has an extremely high actual trade share given its
the actual trade share on a constant and the two size size. Figure 2, Panel B, therefore shows the scat-
measures with a regression that also includes our terplot with these two observations omitted. Again
constructed trade share. As expected, size has a neg- there is a definite positive relationship.12
ative effect on trade. Area is highly significant, while
population is moderately so. The coefficient on the
constructed trade share falls by slightly more than 12
When these two observations are dropped from the
half when the size controls are added. regression in column (3) of Table 2, the coefficient on the
The important message of columns (2) and (3), constructed trade share rises to 0.69, but the t-statistic falls
386 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

shares. In sum, countries’ geographic charac-


teristics do provide considerable information
about their overall trade.

II. Estimates of Trade’s Effect on Income

A. Specifications and Samples

This section uses the instrument constructed


in Section I to investigate the relationship be-
tween trade and income. The dependent vari-
able in our regressions is log income per person.
The data are for 1985 and are from the Penn
World Table. Our basic specification is

(9) ln Y i 5 a 1 bT i

1 c 1 ln N i 1 c 2 ln A i 1 u i ,

where Y i is income per person in country i, T i is


the trade share, and N i and A i are population
and area. This specification differs from the one
derived from the simple model in Section I,
subsection A, only by including two measures
of size rather than one [see equation (4)].
We do not include any additional variables in
the regression. There are of course many other
factors that may affect income. But our argu-
FIGURE 2. PARTIAL ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ACTUAL AND
ment about the appropriateness of using
CONSTRUCTED TRADE SHARE geographic characteristics to construct an in-
strument for trade implies that there is no strong
reason to expect additional independent deter-
The five countries with the smallest con- minants of income to be correlated with our
structed trade shares controlling for size are instrument; thus they can be included in the
Western Samoa, Tonga, Fiji, Mauritius, and error term. In addition, if we included other
Vanuatu. All five are geographically isolated variables, the estimates of trade’s impact on
islands. Of the five, Western Samoa and income would leave out any effects operating
Tonga have large negative shares given their through its impact on these variables. Suppose,
size; Fiji and Mauritius have moderate nega- for example, that increased trade raises the rate
tive shares; and Vanuatu has a moderate pos- of return on domestic investment and therefore
itive share. At the other extreme, the five increases the saving rate. Then by including the
countries with the highest constructed trade saving rate in the regression, we would be omit-
shares controlling for size are Luxembourg, ting trade’s impact on income that operates via
Belize, Jordan, Malta, and Djibouti. Of these saving.
five, Luxembourg and Jordan have large pos- As an alternative to including control vari-
itive actual trade shares controlling for size, ables, in subsection D of this section, we de-
and the other three have moderate positive compose countries’ incomes in various ways
and ask how trade affects each component. In
doing so, we can obtain information about the
to 3.2 (corresponding to an F-statistic of 10.1). This channels through which trade affects income.
F-statistic remains large enough that the finite-sample bias For example, we ask how trade affects both in-
of the IV estimates is still likely to be small. come at the beginning of the sample and growth
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 387

over the sample period.13 TABLE 3—TRADE AND INCOME

Appendix Table A1 reports the basic data


(1) (2) (3) (4)
used in the tests. It lists, for each country in the
sample, its actual trade share in 1985, its con- Estimation OLS IV OLS IV
structed trade share, its area and 1985 popula- Constant 7.40 4.96 6.95 1.62
(0.66) (2.20) (1.12) (3.85)
tion, and its income per person in 1985.14 Trade share 0.85 1.97 0.82 2.96
We focus on two samples. The first is the full (0.25) (0.99) (0.32) (1.49)
set of 150 countries covered by the Penn World Ln population 0.12 0.19 0.21 0.35
Table. Our instrument is only moderately cor- (0.06) (0.09) (0.10) (0.15)
related with trade once we control for size, and Ln area 20.01 0.09 20.05 0.20
(0.06) (0.10) (0.08) (0.19)
much of the variation is among the smallest Sample size 150 150 98 98
countries in the sample. Thus it is important to R2 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.09
consider a relatively broad sample. And as we SE of
describe below, the results for this sample are regression 1.00 1.06 1.04 1.27
First-stage F
robust to the exclusion of outliers and of obser- on excluded
vations where the data are potentially the most instrument 13.13 8.45
subject to error.
Our second sample is the 98-country sample Notes: The dependent variable is log income per person in
considered by N. Gregory Mankiw et al. (1992). 1985. The 150-country sample includes all countries for
which the data are available; the 98-country sample includes
The countries in this sample generally have only the countries considered by Mankiw et al. (1992).
more reliable data; they are also generally Standard errors are in parentheses.
larger, and thus less likely to have their incomes
determined by idiosyncratic factors. In addition,
data limitations require that we employ a eficial. The point estimates imply that increasing
smaller sample when we examine the channels both population and area by one percent raises
through which trade affects income. income per person by 0.1 percent.
Column (2) reports the IV estimates of the
B. Basic Results same equation. The trade share is treated as
endogenous, and the constructed trade share is
Table 3 reports the regressions. Column (1) is used as an instrument.15 The coefficient on trade
an OLS regression of log income per person on a rises sharply. That is, the point estimate sug-
constant, the trade share, and the two size mea- gests that examining the link between trade and
sures. The regression shows a statistically and income using OLS understates rather than over-
economically significant relationship between states the effect of trade. The estimates now
trade and income. The t-statistic on the trade share imply that a one-percentage-point increase in
is 3.5; the point estimate implies that an increase the trade share raises income per person by 2.0
in the share of one percentage point is associated percent. In addition, the hypothesis that the IV
with an increase of 0.9 percent in income per coefficient is zero is marginally rejected at con-
person. The regression also suggests that, control- ventional levels (t 5 2.0). The coefficient is
ling for international trade, there is a positive
(though only marginally significant) relation be-
tween country size and income per person; this 15
Throughout, the standard errors for the IV regressions
supports the view that within-country trade is ben- account for the fact that the instrument depends on the
parameters of the bilateral trade equation. That is, the vari-
ance-covariance matrix of the coefficients is estimated as
the usual IV formula plus (­b̂/­â)V̂(­b̂/­â)9, where b̂ is the
13
Fischer (1993) uses a similar approach to investigate vector of estimated coefficients from the cross-country in-
the effects of inflation. Frankel et al. (1996) and the working come regression, â is the vector of estimated coefficients
paper version of this paper (Frankel and Romer, 1996) from the bilateral trade equation, and V̂ is the estimated
investigate the effects of controlling for physical and human variance-covariance matrix of â. In all cases, this additional
capital accumulation and population growth, and find that term makes only a small contribution to the standard errors.
this does not change the character of the results. In the regression in column (2) of Table 3, for example, this
14
The other data used in the analysis are available from correction increases the standard error on the trade share
the authors on request. from 0.91 to 0.99.
388 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

much less precisely estimated under IV than partners, these papers use some information
under OLS, however. As a result, the hypothesis about the partners’ incomes. Specifically, they
that the IV and OLS estimates are equal cannot include measures of physical and human capital
be rejected (t 5 1.2). 16 accumulation and population growth. As those
Moving from OLS to IV also increases the papers explain, one can argue that the factor
estimated impact of country size. The estimated accumulation of a country’s trading partners is
effect of raising both population and area by one uncorrelated with determinants of the country’s
percent is now to increase income per person by income other than its trade and factor accumu-
almost 0.3 percent. This estimate is marginally lation: once one accounts for the impact of a
significantly different from zero (t 5 1.8). country’s own factor accumulation on its in-
One interesting aspect of the results concern- come, the most evident channel through which
ing size is that the coefficient on area is positive. its partners’ factor accumulation may affect its
One might expect increased area, controlling for income is by increasing the partners’ incomes,
population, to reduce within-country trade and and thus increasing the amount the country
thus lower income. One possibility is that the trades. Thus if one controls for the country’s
positive coefficient is due to sampling error: the own factor accumulation, its partners’ factor
t-statistic on area is slightly less than one. An- accumulation can be used in constructing the
other is that greater area has a negative impact instrument.
via decreased within-country trade, but a larger Not surprisingly, using more information in
positive impact via increased natural resources. constructing the instrument increases the preci-
It is because of this possibility that we focus on sion of the IV estimates of trade’s effect on
the sum of the coefficients on log population income. But the estimated effect of trade is not
and log area in our discussion. As described systematically different when one moves to the
above, this sum shows the effects of increased alternative instrument; this supports the argu-
size with population density held constant. In ment that it is a valid instrument. The overall
addition, as we show below, using population results are similar to those we obtain with our
alone to measure size has no major impact on basic instrument: the IV estimates of trade’s
the results. impact on income are much larger than the OLS
Columns (3) and (4) consider the 98-country estimates, and are marginally significantly dif-
sample. This change has no great effect on the ferent from zero.
OLS estimates of the coefficients on trade and
size, but raises both the IV estimates and their C. Robustness
standard errors considerably. The t-statistics for
the OLS estimates fall moderately, while those A natural question is whether the results are
for the IV estimates change little. robust. We consider robustness along four
Frankel et al. (1996) and the working paper dimensions.
version of this paper (Frankel and Romer, 1996) First, as described above, Luxembourg and
consider a second approach to constructing the Singapore are major outliers in the relationship
instrument for trade. In addition to using infor- between the actual and constructed trade shares.
mation on the proximity of a country’s trading Dropping either or both of these observations,
however, does not change the basic pattern of
the results. The most noticeable change occurs
16
That is, we perform a Hausman test (Jerry A. Haus- when Luxembourg is dropped from the baseline
man, 1978) of the hypothesis that actual trade is uncorre- regressions in columns (1) and (2) of Table 3.
lated with the residual, and thus that OLS is unbiased.
Under the null, asymptotically the OLS and IV estimates of
This has effects similar to those of moving to
trade’s impact differ only because of sampling error. As a the 98-country sample (which does not include
result, the difference between the two estimates divided by Luxembourg): the OLS estimate of the effect of
the standard error of the difference is distributed asymptot- trade changes little, but the IV estimate and its
ically as a standard normal variable. Furthermore, under the standard error rise. Similarly, adding Luxem-
null the variance of the difference between the IV and OLS
estimates is just the difference in their variances; that is, the bourg to the regressions in columns (3) and (4)
standard error of the difference is the square root of the of Table 3 moderately reduces the IV estimate
difference in the squares of their standard errors. of the effect of trade.
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 389

A second concern is the possibility that sys- from the 98-country sample, and excluding them
tematic differences among parts of the world are from the 150-country sample changes the esti-
driving the results. That is, it could be that our mates only slightly. As a more general check of
IV estimates of the impact of trade arise because the possible importance of data problems, we use
the countries in certain regions of the world the Penn World Table’s summary assessments of
have systematically higher constructed trade the quality of countries’ data to exclude the coun-
shares given their size and also have systemat- tries with the poorest data from the sample. Spe-
ically higher incomes. In this case, our findings cifically, we exclude all countries whose data are
might be the result not of trade, but of other assigned a grade of “D.” This reduces the 150-
features of those regions. country sample to 99, and the 98-country sample
To address this concern, we reestimate the re- to 77. These reductions in the sample sizes mod-
gressions in Table 3 including a dummy variable erately increase the standard errors of both the
for each continent. This modification substantially OLS and IV estimates of the impact of trade. The
increases the standard errors of the IV estimates of point estimates change little, however.
the impact of trade on income. As a result, the Finally, one can imagine reasons that virtu-
estimates are no longer significantly different ally all the variables used in finding the geo-
from zero. In addition, the IV estimate of the graphic component of countries’ trade might
impact of trade for the 150-country sample [col- have some endogenous component that is cor-
umn (2) of Table 3] falls to only moderately above related with the error term in the income equa-
the OLS estimate. When Luxembourg is dropped tion. For example, whether countries have
from the sample, however, the IV estimate returns access to an ocean may be endogenous in the
to being much larger than the OLS estimate. For truly long run, and may be determined in part by
the 98-country sample, in contrast, inclusion of the other forces that affect income.17 Similarly,
continent dummies raises the IV estimate slightly population is endogenous in the very long run.
and lowers the OLS estimate slightly. To check that no single variable that could
As an alternative way of considering the im- conceivably be endogenous is driving the re-
pact of differences across parts of the world, we sults, we redo the construction of the instrument
follow Robert E. Hall and Charles I. Jones and the regressions in Table 3 in five ways:
(1999) and include countries’ distance from the omitting the landlocked variable from the bilat-
equator as a control variable. This variable may eral trade equation; excluding population from
reflect the impact of climate, or it may be a this equation; omitting all interactions with the
proxy for omitted country characteristics that common-border dummy from this equation; us-
are correlated with latitude. With this approach, ing total population rather than the labor force
the IV estimate of trade and size’s effects are both in measuring countries’ sizes and in com-
virtually identical to the OLS estimate for the puting income per person; and excluding area
full sample, and only moderately larger than the from both equations.
OLS estimate for the 98-country sample. Thus None of these changes has a major effect on
there is some evidence that systematic differ- the results. Although the changes sometimes
ences among regions are important to our find- affect the IV estimates noticeably, in every case
ing that the IV estimates of trade’s effects they remain much larger than the OLS esti-
exceed the OLS estimates. Even in this case, mates. Moreover, there is no systematic ten-
however, there is still no evidence that the OLS dency for the changes to reduce the IV
estimates overstate trade’s effects.
Third, our data are highly imperfect in various
ways. Potentially most important, for the major 17
The potential endogeneity of characteristics of borders
oil-producing countries much of measured GDP other than whether countries are landlocked is unlikely to
represents the sale of existing resources rather cause serious difficulties, for two reasons. First, the location
than genuine value added. Since these countries of borders is largely determined by forces other than gov-
have among the highest measured incomes in the ernment policies and other determinants of current income;
that is, the endogenous component of borders appears small.
sample, they have the potential to affect the results Second, because our estimates control for within-country
substantially. In fact, however, they are not im- trade, what is key to our estimates is the overall distribution
portant to our findings: they are already absent of population, not the placement of country borders.
390 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

estimates; indeed, there are several cases where than ln A i directly from the data, and then find
the changes raise the estimate considerably, or ln A i as a residual.
reduce its standard error considerably. Thus, our Our second decomposition of income is sim-
findings do not hinge on the use of any one of pler. We write log output per worker in 1985 as
these variables in constructing the fitted trade the sum of its value at the beginning of the
shares. sample (1960) plus the change during the sam-
ple period:

D. The Channels Through Which Trade ~13! ln~Y i /N i ! 1985


Affects Income
5 ln~Y i /N i ! 1960
The results thus far provide no information
about the mechanisms through which trade 1 @ln~Y i /N i ! 1985 2ln~Y i /N i ! 1960 #.
raises income. To shed some light on this issue,
we decompose income and examine trade’s im- For both decompositions, we regress each
pact on each component. component of income on a constant, the trade
We consider two decompositions of income. share, and the size measures. Again, we con-
The first follows Hall and Jones (1999). Sup- sider both OLS and IV. Since the decomposi-
pose output in country i is given by tions cannot be performed for the full sample,
we consider only the 98-country sample. The
(10) Y i 5 K ai @e f ~S i! A i N i # 12 a , results are reported in Table 4. The first three
pairs of columns show the results for the Hall
where K and N are capital and labor, S is and Jones decomposition, and the remaining
workers’ average years of schooling, f[ gives two pairs show the results for the decomposition
the effects of schooling, and A is a productivity into initial income and subsequent growth.
term. Equation (10) could be used to decompose With both decompositions, the estimates
differences in output per worker into the con- using instrumental variables suggest that
tributions of capital per worker, schooling, and trade increases income through each compo-
productivity. As Hall and Jones note, however, nent of income. For the first decomposition,
an increase in A leads to a higher value of K for the estimated impacts of trade on physical
a given investment rate. Following Peter Kle- capital depth and schooling are moderate, and
now and Andrés Rodriguez-Clare (1997), they its estimated impact on productivity is large.
therefore rewrite (10) as The estimates imply that a one-percentage-
point increase in the trade share raises the
(11) Y i 5 ~K i /Y i ! a /~12 a ! e f ~S i! A i N i . contributions of both physical capital depth
and schooling to output by about one-half of
Dividing both sides by N i and taking logs yields a percentage point, and the contribution of
productivity to output by about two percent-
a age points. For the second decomposition,
(12) ln~Y i /N i ! 5 ln~K i /Y i ! trade’s estimated effects on both initial in-
12a come and subsequent growth are large. Here
the estimates imply that a one-percentage-
1 f ~S i ! 1 ln A i . point increase in the trade share raises both
initial income and the change over the sample
Equation (12) expresses the log of output per period by about one and a half percentage
worker as the sum of the contributions of capital points. Further, in every case, the estimates
depth (reflecting such factors as investment and suggest that country size, controlling for in-
population growth), schooling, and productiv- ternational trade, is beneficial. And in every
ity. Hall and Jones set a 5 1⁄3 and let f[ be a case the IV estimates of the effects of inter-
piecewise linear function with coefficients national trade and country size are substan-
based on microeconomic evidence. This allows tially larger than the OLS estimates.
them to measure each component of (12) other The standard errors of the IV estimates are
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 391

TABLE 4—TRADE AND THE COMPONENTS OF INCOME

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Dependent a
ln~K i /Y i !
variable 12a f (S i ) ln A i ln(Y/N) 1960 D ln(Y/N)
Estimation OLS IV OLS IV OLS IV OLS IV OLS IV
Constant 20.72 21.29 0.10 20.37 7.47 3.05 7.45 4.27 20.50 22.65
(0.34) (0.93) (0.30) (0.81) (0.74) (2.84) (1.03) (3.07) (0.39) (1.66)
Trade share 0.36 0.59 0.18 0.37 0.27 2.04 0.38 1.66 0.45 1.31
(0.10) (0.36) (0.08) (0.31) (0.21) (1.10) (0.29) (1.19) (0.11) (0.65)
Ln population 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.21 0.32 0.09 0.17 0.12 0.18
(0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.03) (0.06) (0.11) (0.09) (0.12) (0.03) (0.06)
Ln area 0.04 0.07 20.01 0.01 20.13 0.08 20.02 0.13 20.03 0.07
(0.02) (0.05) (0.02) (0.04) (0.05) (0.14) (0.07) (0.15) (0.03) (0.08)
Sample size 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98
R2 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.08 0.14 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.24 0.20
SE of
regression 0.32 0.33 0.28 0.29 0.69 0.92 0.96 1.06 0.36 0.47
First-stage F
on excluded
instrument 8.45 8.45 8.45 8.45 8.45

Note: Standard errors are in parentheses.

large, however. For productivity and for growth E. Why Are the IV Estimates Greater Than
over the sample period, the estimates of trade’s the OLS Estimates?
effect are marginally significantly different
from zero (t-statistics of 1.8 and 2.0, respective- Both the simple model presented in Section I,
ly). For the other dependent variables, the t- subsection A, and prevailing views about the
statistics are between 1.2 and 1.6. Similarly, the association between trade and income suggest
t-statistic for the sum of the coefficients on that IV estimates of trade’s impact on income
population and area is 1.9 for productivity, 2.0 will be less than OLS estimates. There are four
for growth, and between 1.3 and 1.5 for the main reasons. First, countries that adopt free-
other dependent variables. Thus, although the trade policies are likely to adopt other policies
estimates suggest that international and within-
country trade raise income through several dif-
ferent channels, they do not allow us to
determine their contributions through each the decomposition into initial income and subsequent
growth). The one exception is that in the IV regression with
channel with great precision. f (S i ) as the dependent variable, both the coefficient on
The results also provide no evidence that trade and the sum of the coefficients on population and area
OLS is biased. The IV and OLS estimates of are very slightly negative when latitude is included as a
trade’s impact never differ by a statistically control. Likewise, the finding that the IV estimates of the
effects of trade and size on productivity, initial income, and
significant amount. Indeed, the t-statistic for the growth over the sample are larger than the OLS estimates is
null that the estimates are equal exceeds 1.5 extremely robust. Again there is only a single exception:
only once.18 when latitude is included, the IV estimates of the impact of
trade and of the combined effect of population and area on
initial income are slightly smaller than the OLS estimates.
The result that the IV estimates of trade’s and size’s effects
18
The result that the IV estimates of the effects of trade on capital depth and schooling are larger than the OLS
and country size on each component of income are positive estimates, on the other hand, is only moderately robust: for
is extremely robust to the exclusion of outliers, the addition several of our robustness checks, the IV estimates are
of continent dummies and latitude, the omission of coun- smaller. The difference is never large, however.
tries with the most questionable data, the use of less infor- Finally, Hall and Jones’s data are for 1988 rather than
mation in constructing the instrument, and expanding the 1985. This is not important, however: redoing the basic
sample to include as many countries as possible (132 coun- regressions in Table 3 for the 98-country sample using 1988
tries for the Hall and Jones decomposition, 127 countries for income per worker changes the results only trivially.
392 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

that raise income. Second, countries that are


wealthy for reasons other than trade are likely to
have better infrastructure and transportation
systems. Third, countries that are poor for rea-
sons other than low trade may lack the institu-
tions and resources needed to tax domestic
economic activity, and thus may have to rely on
tariffs to finance government spending. And
fourth, increases in income coming from
sources other than trade may increase the vari-
ety of goods that households demand and shift
the composition of their demand away from
basic commodities toward more processed,
lighter weight goods. All of these consider-
ations would lead to positive correlation be-
tween trade and the error term in an OLS
regression, and thus to upward bias in the OLS
estimate of trade’s effects. And since there is no
reason to expect correlation between proximity
and these various omitted country characteris-
tics, there is no reason to expect the IV estimate
to suffer a similar bias. But we find that the IV
estimate is almost always considerably larger
than the OLS estimate. Although the difference
is not statistically significant, the fact that it is
large and positive is surprising.
The OLS estimate is determined by the par-
FIGURE 3. PARTIAL ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN INCOME AND
tial association between income and trade, THE TRADE SHARE
while the IV estimate is determined by the par-
tial association between income and the com-
ponent of trade correlated with the instrument. of 0.26). It is this smaller relationship that
Thus, mechanically, the fact that the OLS esti- causes the OLS estimate to be less than the IV
mate is smaller than the IV estimate means that estimate.
income’s partial association with the compo- The figures show that the difference between
nent of trade that is not correlated with the the OLS and IV estimates is not due to a handful
instrument is weaker than its partial association of observations. (Recall that including Luxem-
with the component that is correlated. Figure 3 bourg and Singapore reduces the IV estimate of
presents these two partial associations. Since trade’s effects. Thus the only major outliers are
Luxembourg and Singapore are outliers in the not the source of the gap between the OLS and
relationship between trade and the instrument, IV estimates, but in fact reduce it.) In addition,
they are omitted. Panel A of the figure shows examining which specific countries are impor-
the positive partial association between income tant to the estimates suggests that there is no
and the component of trade correlated with the simple omitted country characteristic that is
instrument; it is this association that underlies driving the results.
the positive coefficient on trade in the basic IV The observations that are responsible for
regression [column (2) of Table 3]. Panel B of the high estimated IV coefficient are those at
the figure shows that there is also a positive the upper right and lower left of Panel A. The
partial association between income and the most influential observations at the upper
component of trade not correlated with the in- right are Qatar, Belgium, the United States,
strument. This association, though statistically and Israel. The most influential observations
significant, is smaller than the partial associa- at the lower left are Malawi, Lesotho, Bu-
tion in Panel A (b̂ 5 0.75, with a standard error rundi, and Haiti. Similarly, the observations
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 393

that are lowering the OLS estimate relative to tries does not raise income. Rather, trade is a
the IV estimate are those in the lower right proxy for the many ways in which interac-
and upper left of Panel B. The most influential tions between countries raise income—spe-
observations at the lower right are Qatar, cialization, spread of ideas, and so on. Trade
Trinidad and Tobago, Hong Kong, and Syria, is likely to be highly, but not perfectly, cor-
while the most influential observations at the related with the extent of such interactions.
upper left are Lesotho, Mauritania, Togo, and Thus, trade is an imperfect measure of in-
Belize. come-enhancing interactions among coun-
Thus, in both cases the low-income coun- tries. And since measurement error leads to
tries are, not surprisingly, disproportionately downward bias, this would mean that OLS
from sub-Saharan Africa. But there is no ev- would lead to an understatement of the effect
ident characteristic other than proximity that of income-enhancing interactions.19
distinguishes the countries with low proxim- To explore this idea, consider the following
ity and low income from those with high simple model. Average income in country i is
proximity and high income. Similarly, there is given by
no clear characteristic other than trade that
differentiates the countries with low residual
trade and high income from those with high (14) ln Y i 5 a 1 b 1 I 1i 1 b 2 I 2i 1 ... 1 b N I Ni
residual trade and low income. Together with
our earlier results, this suggests that the find- 1 cS i 1 e i ,
ing that the IV estimate exceeds— or at least
does not fall short of—the OLS estimate is where I 1 , I 2 , ..., I N are measures of the various
robust and not the result of omitted country ways in which interactions among countries af-
characteristics. fect income. This equation has the same form as
There are two leading explanations of the (4), except that trade has been replaced by I 1 ,
fact that the IV estimate of trade’s impact I 2 , ..., I N . We want to rewrite this model in a
exceeds the OLS estimate. The first is that it way that expresses the idea that trade is a noisy
is due to sampling variation. That is, although measure of income-promoting interactions. To
there no reason to expect systematic correla- do this, we define T *i 5 (b 1 I 1i 1 b 2 I 2i 1 ... 1
tion between the instrument and the residual, b N I Ni )/b, where b 5 Var(b 1 I 1 1 b 2 I 2 1 ... 1
it could be that by chance they are positively b N I N )/Cov(b 1 I 1 1 b 2 I 2 1 ... 1 b N I N , T) and
correlated. The principal evidence supporting where T is again trade. With this definition, we
this possibility is that the differences between can rewrite (14) as
the IV and OLS estimates, though quantita-
tively large, are well within the range that can (15) ln Y i 5 a 1 bT *i 1 cS i 1 e i .
arise from sampling error. In our baseline
regressions [columns (1) and (2) of Table 3], It is straightforward to check that with these
the t-statistic for the null hypothesis that the definitions, T 2 T* is uncorrelated with T*.
OLS and IV estimates are equal is 1.2 ( p 5 Thus we can write
0.25). And in the variations on the baseline
regression that we consider, this t-statistic (16) T i 5 T *i 1 u i ,
never exceeds 2, and it is almost always less
than 1.5. Moreover, in a few cases it is essen- where u i is uncorrelated with T *i . Thus, equa-
tially zero. Thus, if one believes that theory tions (15)–(16) express the idea that actual trade
provides strong grounds for believing that is a noisy measure of income-promoting inter-
OLS estimates are biased up, our IV estimates actions.
do not provide a compelling reason for chang- With this formulation, the relationship be-
ing this belief. tween income and actual trade is
The second candidate explanation of the
finding that the IV estimates exceed the OLS
estimates is that OLS is in fact biased down. 19
We are grateful to an anonymous referee and several
The literal shipping of goods between coun- seminar participants for suggesting this possibility.
394 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

(17) ln Y i 5 a 1 bT i 1 cS i 1 ~e i 2 bu i !. III. Conclusion

From (16), T and u are positively correlated. If This paper investigates the question of how
this correlation is strong enough, it will cause international trade affects standards of living.
the overall correlation between T and the resid- Although this is an old question, it is a difficult
ual in (17), e–bu, to be negative, and thus cause one to answer. The amounts that countries trade
OLS to yield a downward biased estimate of b. are not determined exogenously. As a result,
And again this bias will not carry over to the IV correlations between trade and income cannot
estimates—proximity and other geographic identify the effect of trade.
variables are likely to be strongly correlated This paper addresses this problem by focus-
with income-enhancing interactions, and there ing on the component of trade that is due to
is no evident reason for them to be correlated geographic factors. Some countries trade more
with the idiosyncratic factors that cause trade to just because they are near well-populated coun-
move differently from those interactions. tries, and some trade less because they are iso-
In the univariate case, the expectation of lated. Geographic factors are not a consequence
the OLS estimate of b would be given by of income or government policy, and there is no
E[b̂ OLS] 5 (V T* /V T )b, where V T* and V T are likely channel through which they affect in-
the variances of T* and T. When size is come other than through their impact on a coun-
controlled for, the expression is analogous: try’s residents’ interactions with residents of
other countries and with one another. As a
result, the variation in trade that is due to geo-
V T*| S graphic factors can serve as a natural experi-
(18) E@b̂ OLS# 5 b,
VT | S ment for identifying the effects of trade.
The results of the experiment are consistent
where V T*|S and V T |S are the conditional vari- across the samples and specifications we con-
ances of T* and T given size. sider: trade raises income. The relation be-
This discussion implies that trade must be a tween the geographic component of trade and
very noisy proxy for income-promoting interac- income suggests that a rise of one percentage
tions to account for the gap between the OLS and point in the ratio of trade to GDP increases
IV estimates. In our baseline regression for the full income per person by at least one-half per-
sample [columns (1) and (2) of Table 3], the OLS cent. Trade appears to raise income by spur-
estimate of b is less than half the IV estimate. ring the accumulation of physical and human
Thus for the gap between the two estimates to capital and by increasing output for given
arise from the fact that trade is an imperfect proxy levels of capital.
for income-enhancing interactions, the majority of The results also suggest that within-country
the variation in trade uncorrelated with size would trade raises income. Controlling for interna-
have to be uncorrelated with income-promoting tional trade, countries that are larger—and that
interactions. To put it differently, u in (16) would therefore have more opportunities for trade
have to have a standard deviation of 22 percentage within their borders— have higher incomes. The
points. point estimates suggest that increasing a coun-
We conclude that the most plausible expla- try’s size and area by one percent raises income
nation of the bulk of the gap between the IV and by one-tenth of a percent or more. And the
OLS estimates is simply sampling error. This estimates suggest that within-country trade, like
implies that our most important finding is not international trade, raises income both through
that the IV estimates of trade’s effects exceed capital accumulation and through income for
the OLS estimates, but rather that there is no given levels of capital.
evidence that the IV estimates are lower. In There are two important caveats to these con-
addition, it implies that our IV estimates may be clusions. First, the effects are not estimated with
substantially affected by sampling error, and great precision. The hypotheses that the impacts
thus that the OLS estimates are likely to be of trade and size are zero are typically only
more accurate estimates of trade’s actual impact marginally rejected at standard significance lev-
on income. els. In addition, the hypothesis that the estimates
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 395

based on the geographic component of trade are trade that are due to geography and variations
the same as the estimates based on overall trade that are due to policy may not involve exactly
are typically relatively far from rejection. Thus, the same mix of the various mechanisms. Thus,
although the results bolster the case for the differences in trade resulting from policy may
benefits of trade, they do not provide decisive not affect income in precisely the same way as
evidence for it. differences resulting from geography.
This limitation is probably inherent in the ex- Nonetheless, our estimates of the effects of
periment we are considering. Once country size is geography-based differences in trade are at least
controlled for, geography appears to account for suggestive about the effects of policy-induced
only a moderate part of the variation in trade. differences. Our point estimates suggest that the
As a result, geographic variables provide only a impact of geography-based differences in trade
limited amount of information about the relation are quantitatively large. We also find that the
between trade and income. Thus, unless additional estimated impact is larger than what one obtains
portions of overall trade that are unaffected by by naively using OLS, but is not significantly
other determinants of income can be identified, it different from the OLS estimate. These results
is likely to be difficult to improve greatly on our are not what one would expect if the positive
estimates of the effects of trade. correlation between trade and income reflected
The second limitation of the results is that an impact of income on trade, or of omitted
they cannot be applied without qualification to factors on both variables. In that sense, our
the effects of trade policies. There are many results bolster the case for the importance of
ways that trade affects income, and variations in trade and trade-promoting policies.

APPENDIX

TABLE A1—BASIC DATA

Area
Actual trade Constructed (thousands of Population Income per
Country share trade share square miles) (millions) worker
Algeria 49.66 13.97 919.595 4.859 13434
Angola 69.10 11.51 481.354 3.512 1742
Benin 76.99 42.20 43.483 1.874 2391
Botswana 121.28 24.03 231.800 0.370 6792
Burkina Faso 52.42 14.10 105.870 4.150 940
Burundi 30.82 24.86 10.747 2.539 986
Cameroon 57.67 15.79 183.569 3.831 3869
Cape Verde Islands 118.02 45.11 1.557 0.120 2829
Central African Republic 65.23 15.13 241.313 1.309 1266
Chad 61.43 12.00 495.755 1.791 1146
Comoros 67.06 46.77 0.863 0.181 1400
Congo 112.81 25.77 132.046 0.760 6878
Djibouti 117.06 70.97 8.958 0.105 4647
Egypt 51.97 11.75 386.900 12.719 7142
Ethiopia 34.13 8.44 472.432 18.385 705
Gabon 100.18 30.65 103.346 0.420 9672
Gambia 89.14 52.20 4.093 0.358 1609
Ghana 21.29 18.87 92.100 4.468 2237
Guinea 71.80 23.95 94.926 2.243 1583
Guinea-Bissau 62.74 42.24 13.948 0.425 1354
Ivory Coast 78.19 16.58 124.502 4.030 3740
Kenya 51.69 12.48 224.960 7.980 2014
Lesotho 152.42 20.66 11.720 0.743 2028
Liberia 79.63 29.81 43.000 0.811 2312
Madagascar 30.99 9.90 226.660 4.498 1707
Malawi 54.09 12.67 45.747 3.180 1171
Mali 73.60 12.80 482.077 2.332 1686
396 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

TABLE A1—Continued.

Area
Actual trade Constructed (thousands of Population Income per
Country share trade share square miles) (millions) worker
Mauritania 141.56 23.44 397.953 0.533 2674
Mauritius 109.10 31.11 0.787 0.577 7474
Morocco 58.50 12.71 172.413 6.714 6427
Mozambique 18.38 11.11 308.642 7.290 1417
Namibia 119.81 21.31 317.818 0.380 8465
Niger 51.27 12.37 489.206 3.343 1098
Nigeria 28.53 8.68 356.700 30.743 2874
Reunion 53.14 39.92 0.969 0.216 7858
Rwanda 30.65 26.20 10.169 3.005 1539
Senegal 70.63 19.87 75.954 2.758 2688
Seychelles 111.95 84.98 0.175 0.029 7058
Sierra Leone 19.15 27.81 27.700 1.372 2411
Somalia 25.64 14.89 246.199 2.774 1574
South Africa 55.43 8.90 471.440 11.240 9930
Sudan 21.34 10.97 967.491 7.121 2436
Swaziland 118.71 56.87 6.704 0.277 5225
Tanzania 21.03 10.97 364.900 10.266 975
Togo 105.52 41.47 21.925 1.277 1516
Tunisia 71.33 23.83 63.379 2.280 8783
Uganda 22.54 12.97 91.343 6.236 1224
Zaire 53.15 8.97 905.365 12.321 1136
Zambia 76.96 13.81 290.586 2.274 2399
Zimbabwe 56.40 11.27 150.699 3.135 3261
Bahamas 124.11 38.03 5.382 0.097 29815
Barbados 130.30 56.10 0.166 0.127 12212
Belize 183.27 87.48 8.866 0.049 8487
Canada 54.48 4.97 3851.809 12.595 31147
Costa Rica 63.19 23.37 19.652 0.920 9148
Dominica 103.09 75.08 0.305 0.030 6163
Dominican Republic 64.24 22.37 18.704 1.912 7082
El Salvador 52.21 28.91 8.260 1.564 5547
Grenada 120.63 81.25 0.133 0.039 4502
Guatemala 24.94 22.04 42.042 2.262 7358
Haiti 38.44 20.44 10.714 2.514 2125
Honduras 54.15 27.58 43.277 1.307 4652
Jamaica 131.89 22.19 4.411 1.059 4726
Mexico 25.74 4.52 761.600 24.669 17036
Nicaragua 36.60 23.46 50.180 0.980 5900
Panama 70.96 23.56 29.761 0.760 10039
Puerto Rico 136.74 22.75 3.515 1.101 21842
St. Lucia 165.77 68.83 0.238 0.057 5317
St. Vincent & Grenadines 152.17 79.41 0.150 0.042 5796
Trinidad & Tobago 61.90 30.33 1.980 0.441 25529
United States 18.01 2.56 3540.939 117.362 33783
Argentina 17.10 5.60 1072.067 10.798 14955
Bolivia 30.27 8.06 424.162 1.978 5623
Brazil 19.34 3.03 3286.470 49.609 10977
Chile 53.85 7.25 292.132 4.303 9768
Colombia 26.33 7.54 439.735 9.433 9276
Ecuador 47.63 11.42 109.484 2.820 9615
Guyana 109.95 25.92 83.000 0.280 3573
Paraguay 49.58 10.43 157.047 1.226 6241
Peru 39.42 7.03 496.222 6.107 8141
Suriname 82.99 30.96 63.251 0.124 10883
Uruguay 47.86 17.07 68.040 1.169 10216
Venezuela 40.76 8.94 352.143 5.789 18362
Bahrain 188.70 71.82 0.240 0.178 22840
VOL. 89 NO. 3 FRANKEL AND ROMER: DOES TRADE CAUSE GROWTH? 397

TABLE A1—Continued.

Area
Actual trade Constructed (thousands of Population Income per
Country share trade share square miles) (millions) worker
Bangladesh 25.78 10.31 55.598 27.684 4265
Bhutan 62.54 37.74 17.954 0.575 1504
China 19.44 2.30 3689.631 612.363 2166
Hong Kong 209.52 35.88 0.398 3.516 16447
India 15.04 3.29 1229.737 295.478 2719
Indonesia 42.66 4.47 735.268 62.136 4332
Iran 15.20 10.06 636.293 13.540 13847
Iraq 49.22 19.14 169.235 4.105 15855
Israel 85.80 54.17 8.020 1.602 21953
Japan 25.54 5.47 143.574 75.526 18820
Jordan 113.50 68.18 37.297 0.601 15655
Korea, Republic of 67.86 14.36 38.031 16.608 10361
Kuwait 96.45 42.55 6.880 0.640 35065
Laos 13.80 27.32 91.429 1.758 2739
Malaysia 104.69 16.82 128.328 6.217 10458
Mongolia 82.72 13.52 604.829 0.894 3966
Myanmar 13.16 10.74 261.220 16.613 1332
Nepal 31.29 13.26 54.463 6.958 2244
Oman 87.06 34.19 82.030 0.368 31609
Pakistan 34.00 8.04 310.400 28.567 4249
Philippines 45.84 8.84 115.830 19.945 4229
Qatar 80.94 69.56 4.412 0.166 36646
Saudi Arabia 79.97 14.98 865.000 3.652 28180
Singapore 318.07 48.90 0.220 1.189 17986
Sri Lanka 62.93 13.94 25.332 5.786 5597
Syria 37.23 37.44 71.498 2.556 17166
Taiwan 94.62 17.92 13.895 8.262 12701
Thailand 51.20 9.45 198.455 26.793 4751
United Arab Emirates 89.66 33.42 32.000 0.694 38190
Yemen 49.34 16.83 128.560 2.369 6425
Austria 81.27 36.64 32.375 3.528 23837
Belgium 151.34 52.46 11.781 4.071 27325
Bulgaria 85.99 31.12 42.823 4.417 9662
Cyprus 107.57 54.39 3.572 0.310 13918
Czechoslovakia 69.45 21.07 49.383 8.137 7467
Denmark 72.99 30.89 16.631 2.780 23861
Finland 57.50 21.64 130.119 2.493 23700
France 47.17 15.26 211.208 24.882 27064
Germany, West 61.52 18.47 96.010 28.085 27252
Greece 53.97 27.01 50.961 3.800 16270
Hungary 82.32 26.92 35.920 5.195 10827
Iceland 81.83 33.08 39.709 0.127 23256
Ireland 118.84 33.85 26.600 1.342 19197
Italy 46.06 13.97 116.500 22.714 27189
Luxembourg 211.94 281.29 0.999 0.157 30782
Malta 160.86 98.14 0.122 0.119 15380
Netherlands 118.76 35.84 16.041 5.855 28563
Norway 86.00 23.54 125.049 2.043 28749
Poland 35.07 13.84 120.728 19.235 8079
Portugal 77.95 18.78 35.550 4.540 11343
Romania 41.62 18.80 91.699 11.275 4021
Spain 43.51 12.38 194.885 13.732 21169
Sweden 69.02 18.22 173.800 4.238 26504
Switzerland 77.69 32.57 15.941 3.222 29848
Turkey 44.40 11.26 300.947 21.829 7091
United Kingdom 56.87 13.47 94.247 27.684 22981
Soviet Union 18.28 3.68 8600.387 142.801 13700
398 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW JUNE 1999

TABLE A1—Continued.

Area
Actual trade Constructed (thousands of Population Income per
Country share trade share square miles) (millions) worker
Yugoslavia 57.88 25.82 39.449 10.475 11417
Australia 35.28 4.07 2966.150 7.391 28960
Fiji 89.13 18.56 7.078 0.232 9840
New Zealand 65.25 8.19 103.884 1.438 26039
Papua New Guinea 94.52 10.17 178.704 1.660 3374
Solomon Islands 123.60 25.12 10.954 0.088 5109
Tonga 102.25 43.40 0.288 0.030 6022
Vanuatu 123.33 30.86 4.707 0.042 5707
Western Samoa 92.17 32.77 1.093 0.050 5388

Notes: Actual trade share—Ratio of imports plus exports to GDP, 1985 (Penn World Table, Mark 5.6, Series OPEN).
Constructed trade share—Aggregated fitted values of bilateral trade equation with geographic variables. (See text, Section
I, subsections B–D.)
Area—Rand McNally (1993).
Population—Economically active population, 1985 (Penn World Table, Mark 5.6, constructed from real GDP per capita
(RGDPCH), real GDP per worker (RGDPW), and total population (POP): RGDPCH*POP/RGDPW).
Income per worker—Real GDP per worker, 1985; 1985 international prices (dollars) (Penn World Table, Mark 5.6, Series
RGDPCH).

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the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), New Zealand (NZ). Funding from MAF is
acknowledged. Thanks are due to Mr. Darran Austin of MAF and an anonymous referee who made
several comments to improve the paper.,22Disclaimer: The opinions, findings, recommendations and
conclusions expressed in this report are those of the authors. Statistics NZ, the Ministry of Economic
Development, NZ and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, NZ take no responsibility for any
omissions or errors in the information contained here. Access to the data used in this study was
provided by Statistics NZ in accordance with security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics
Act 1975. Only people authorised by the Statistics Act 1975 are allowed to see data about a particular,
business or organisation. The results in this paper have been confidentialised to protect individual
businesses from identification. Statistics NZ protocols were applied to the data sourced from the
New Zealand Customs Service; the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology; New Zealand
Trade and Enterprise; and Te Puni Kokiri. Any discussion of data limitations is not related to the
data‘s ability to support these government agencies’ core operational requirements. Any table or other
material in this report may be reproduced and published without further licence, provided that it does
not purport to be published under government authority and that acknowledgement is made of this
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