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201 N Union Street, Suite 410

Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688
THE TARRANCE GROUP
(703) 836-8256 FAX www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM

TO: NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE

FROM: DAVE SACKETT
LAUREN HUTCHINSON

RE: KEY FINDINGS FROM A STATEWIDE SURVEY OF VOTER ATTITUDES IN
NORTH DAKOTA

DATE: FEBRUARY 21, 2018
________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the National Republican Senatorial Committee with the
key findings from a survey of voter attitudes in North Dakota. These key findings are based on
live telephone interviews with n=500 “likely” registered voters throughout the state on both
landline and cellular telephone. Responses to this survey were gathered February 18-20, 2018.

KEY FINDINGS

ENVIRONMENT

➢ Key Democratic figures remain toxic in North Dakota. A plurality of respondents have an
unfavorable view of Chuck Schumer, and nearly 60% of North Dakota voters have an
unfavorable view of Nancy Pelosi.

➢ The generic ballot for United States Senate is a net +14 advantage for Republicans. Forty-
eight percent (48%) of respondents indicate they would vote for a generic Republican, and
only thirty-four percent (34%) indicate they would vote for a generic Democrat.

The Tarrance Group – North Dakota Statewide (February 2018) Page 1
CANDIDATES

➢ Fully fifty-three percent (53%) of respondents have a favorable impression of Congressman
Cramer, while just 29% have an unfavorable impression, for a net +24 favorability rating.

➢ Importantly, in the last 5 months, Senator Heitkamp’s net favorable rating has decreased by
10-points and now trails Congressman Cramer’s net rating:

Oct ‘17 Feb ‘18 Movement
Heitkamp – Favorable 60% 54% -6%
Heitkamp - Unfavorable 34% 38% +4%
Heitkamp – NET Favorability +26 +16 -10%

SENATE BALLOT

Feb ‘18
Kevin Cramer 49%
Heidi Heitkamp 44%
Undecided 7%

➢ As you can see from the chart above, Congressman Cramer already has a 5-point lead over
Heitkamp. Forty-nine percent (49%) indicate they would vote for Cramer, forty-four percent
(44%) indicate they would vote for Heitkamp, and seven percent (7%) remain undecided.
Cramer’s “definite” vote (36%) is +5 points higher than Heitkamp’s (31%).

o Enthusiasm is on Cramer’s side: his ballot position reaches 50% among those who are
extremely likely to vote in the November election, and has an 11-point lead over
Heitkamp among those who are very likely to vote.

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The Tarrance Group – North Dakota Statewide (February 2018) Page 2