Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia: U.S. Cuts Aid
- What
Next?

March 1, 2018

we are following up on news reports yesterday

that the United states has announced
it is withdrawing some aid from cambodia in expectation
of pressuring cambodia to
stopping its assault on democracy.
we seek your assessment of the following questions:
Do you think this will work?
what do you think the U.s. is trying to signat with
this move, given that cambodian
officials haven't given any indications that
they fear U.s. sanctions? what do you think
the U.S. will do next if this doesn't work?
ANSWER: The recent decision by the U.s. state Department to cut certain types
to cambodia is an indication that of aid
the U.s. bureauciacy is foltowing standard operating
procedures in upholding the rule
of law and democratic norms. At the worst of
during the 1997 so-called coup, the U.s. also times,
slashed aid but continued to provide
other assistance to the people of Cambodia
via NGOs.
The present case is an example of do no
harm to the peopte of cambodia who need
this assistance' while I hesitate to criticize
U.s. actions, it is a bit knee jerk. The U.s.
withdrawal of aid wilt have no impact on
Hun sen other than to embotdened him on
his present course' Hun sen witl make
a meal out of defending cambodia,s
aga inst foreign interference.
sovereignty

ln reality, cambodia hords rittre priority for the

U.s. what can the u.s. do? put
relations with cambodia on hold indefinitely.
The risk for Hun sen is further
congressional intervention that takes aim garment
at exports to the United states.
The cambodia case is a sad exampte
of the decline of U.s. soft-power under
Administration' the Trump
The Trump Administration has no coherent policy
promote democracy and ensure the rule or program to
of law and human rights. The Trump
Administration has responded episodicary
to these issues.
cambodia willjust turn to china and thumb
its nose. Just look at the remarks Hun sen
has made about ethnic cambodian citizens
in Australia and his threat to sabotage any
Australia-ASEAN joint statement that is
criticat of his anti-democratic actions. Hun
is spoiling for a fight in order to discredit sen
outside support for the political opposition
in Cambodia. China has Hun Sen,s back
and he knows it.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Cambodia: U.S. Cuts Aid -What Next?," Thoyer
Consultancy Bockground Brief , March t, 2018. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit thq Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2OO2.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Brief
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Cambodia: Hun Sen to Receive
Guns and Weapons After U.S.
Aid Cuts
March 1, 2018

Prime Minister Hun Sen said today in a speech to garment workers that he had tens
of thousands of pounds of "special goods" coming in over-night, a hint that he later in
the speech revealed to be guns and weapons.
We think, but have yet to prove, that these are from China for an upcoming military
exercise. We also think the PM is showing a bit of bluster. The U.S. cut off aid, Germany
suspended preferential visa treatment, and the PM is calling Australian protesters
"dogs".
What is your assessment of this issue?

ANSWER: The data on arms sales reveals that in the past Cambodia has sourced its
arms purchases from Bulgaria, China, Czech Republic, France, Slovakia, Ukraine and
possibly other countries.

The open source data bases may not capture shipments of small arms and
ammunition. China and possibly the Ukraine are the most likely sources of the arms
Hun Sen referred to. The other countries are all EU members. China often provides
weapons at opportune moments and would definitely come to the aid of an embattled
Cambodia.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Cambodia: Hun Sen to Receive Guns and
Weapons After U.S. Aid Cuts," Thoyer Consultoncy Bockground Brief , March 1",2018.
All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the
Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Transfers of major weapons: Deals with deliveries or orders made for 1993 to
2016
Note: The 'No. delivered'and the 'Year(s) ofdeliveries' columns refer to all deliveries since the beginning ofthe contract. The 'Comments' column includes
publicly reported information on the value of the deal. Information on the sources and methods used in the collection of the data, and explanations of the
conventions, abbreviations and acronyms, can be found at URL <http:iiwww.sipri.org/contents/armstrad/sources-and-methods>.
Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database
Information generated: 26 February 2018

Year(s)
Supplier/ No. Weapon WgaPon Year of No.
recipie[t (R) ordered designation description oforder delivery delivered Comments

Bulgaria,
R: Cambodia (4) L-392 Albatros Trainer/cornbat ac (1996) 1996-199'7 4 Second-hand but modemized in Israel belbre
delivery; possibl.v sold via original Czech producer
4 BRDM.2 RcconnaissanceAV (2010) 2010 4 Second-hmd
40 BTR-6OPB r\PC (2010) ' 2010 40 Second-hand
China
R: Cambodia Y-t2 Light transpofi ac ( I 99.1) I 99.1 2
(4) 'l'ype-062-lG/Lushun Palrol craft 2007 2007 (.1) ['art of$60 m deal (financed
by Chinese loan); designation uncertain
(s0) FN.6 POTIAbIC SAN'I (2008) 2009 (50) Possihly FN-16 version
t2 ASl65/AS565 Panther I Ielicopter 201 1 2013 12 $195 nr deai (tinanced b1
Chine:e lornl: incl 4 arrtted version
-lransport
2 \,14.60 aircrall 2012 2012 2

czech Republjc
* _ ,, .._
R: Cmbodia (26) 0T-644 APC 1994 1994 ?6 Second-hand
40 T-55AM-2 'l'ank 199.1 1994 40 Second-hand
(6r) BMP-I rFV (2012) 2013 6l Second-hand; designation unccrtian (reponed as
'armoured combat vehicles')
(20) RM-70 l22mm Self-propelled\'IRL (2012) 2013 20 Second-handl designtrtion
uncertain (repofted as'large calibre artilleq'
systems')

France
R: Cambodia (2) AS-350/AS-550 Fennec Light helicopter (1993) 1993 (2) Aid

Slovakia
R: Cambodia Mi-87 Transport helicopter (995) 1997
r 2 Second-hand; for VIP transporl
(8) BMP.I IFV 2OI2 2012 8 Second-handl BVP-l version
/51 RM-70 122mm Self-propelled MRL (2012) 2012 5 Second-hand

Ukraine
R: Cambodia (4) Mi-8MT,Mi-17 Transport helicopter (1994) 1994 (4) Second-hand; probably incl 2 Mi-8 and 2 N'li-17
version
(4) L-39C Albatros Triiner aircraft (1e95) 199',7 4 Second-irand (but a
modemized in Israel before delivery)
(2) Mi-26 'l'ransport helicopter (1996) 1996 2 Second-hand; bought b1,
Cambodian civilian m gift for air Ibrce
2 Mi-8MTA,Ii-I7 Trmsport helicopter 1997 1997 2 Sccond-hand: $1.3 m deal;
probably illegally exported; Mi-17 vcrsion
(40) BTR.6OPB APC (2010) ' z0t2 (40) Probably second-hand; designation
uncertain (reported as'8-lvheeled APC')
(100) T-55 Tmk (2010) 2012 (100) Second-hand
 Thayer Consultancy Background Brief
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Cambodia: Monk Threatened
with Lese Majestd
March 1, 2018

Cambodian Buddhist Monk Buntenh said during an interview with Radio Free Asia that
Cambodians, including Prime Minister Hun Sen and the King, drink Vietnamese urine.
He explains this by saying that Hun Sen owed Vietnamese a "faithful debt" when they
liberated the country from the Khmer Rouge. "Then it came to 99-year land
concessions, and he let [the Vietnamese] live on Tonle Sap" - into which, he said, the
Vietnamese urinate and defecate.
Can you provide us with an assessment of the following issues?
Qt. Do you think this depiction that "the Vietnamese" came to live on the
is accurate:
Ton16 Sap river because Hun Sen owed the Vietnamese government something?

ANSWER: Ethnic Vietnamese migrated to Cambodia duringthe period when Cambodia

was a French Protectorate. They were the victims of a pogrom during the Lon Nol
Khmer Republic (1970-75lrand were targeted during the Khmer Rouge years (1975-
7el.
When Vietnam invaded and occupied Cambodia for a decade (1979-89) ethnic
Vietnamese, some with previous connections to Cambodia, returned to the country.
The People's Republic of Kampuchea under Hun Sen had little to say in the matter and
had very little clout to do anything about it.

However, after L993 when the Kingdom of Cambodia was restored, there were
expulsions of ethnic Vietnamese under the FUNCINPEC-CPP coalition government
(1993-97). Subsequently, when Hun Sen took power outright, illegal Vietnamese
immigrants were deported from time to time. Vietnam continually called on Cambodia
to treat the ethnic Vietnamese community with respect.
Q2. As a reaction to these comments, Fresh News and Pich Sros claim that this is in
violation of the lese majest6 clause recently passed bythe NationalAssembly. Though
that law has not yet taken effect, do you think this is the purpose of the lese majeste
law, and what do you think of the factthat people invoke it before it has even come
law?
ANSWER: lt is evident that Hun Sen has set priority on turning Cambodia from a liberal
multiparty system (that is mentioned five times in the state Constitution) into a virtual
one-party state under rule by law. This means that the lese majest6 clause can be used
 2

as a legal weapon to go after opponents of the Hun Sen regime and any critic that
arouses his ire. The fact that the lese majest6 clause is being invoked before it takes
effect is a demonstration of arrogance of power-threaten and intimidate and if critics
don't back down use lawfare to silence them.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Cambodia: Monk Threatened with Lese

Majest6," Thoyer Consultoncy Background Brief, March t,20L8. Allbackground briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search forThayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2OO2.