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2016 Earnings Results – VCSC Coverage

We present here the 2016 results for our coverage universe. We will update this table daily and fill in the blanks as results
are announced and as we publish our updated ratings.

2016 EPS Growth 2017F Rating Rating Analyst's comment


Actual Forecast EPS Before After
Ticker
(VCSC) Growth Results Results
Forecast
Banks
ACB 29% 20% 22% M-PF O-PF Profit growth supported by robust retail lending push, now accounting for 50% of total loan book
BID -2% 0.3% 10% M-PF M-PF 63.4% increase of provision expense weighs on profit despite strong pre-provision profit growth of 24.8%
CTG 19% 17% 21% M-PF O-PF Strong loan growth and less provisioning spark profit as CTG eases back on loan write-offs
MBB 12% 10% 18% O-PF O-PF Decent profit growth thanks to strong loan growth, lower provisions and growth of non-interest income
STB -68% N/A N/A SELL STB still hasn’t issued its restructuring plan, which materially impacts its provision recognition
VCB 29% 36% 40% M-PF M-PF Profit growth driven by surge in loans, slight increase in provisions and higher NIMs thanks to retail loans
Non-Bank FI
BVH 19% 15% 22% O-PF U-PF Strong growth of premium revenue and financial income from premiums increase portfolio balance
SSI 3% 5% 5% M-PF
Consumer
DQC 1% -5% -31% BUY O-PF Cuba-related financial income and surging LED sales cushion nosedive in exports
DHG 21% 15% 13% M-PF M-PF Recovery of in-house products from FY15's low base and lower tax from new factories support 2016 earnings
GTN -87% -51% 174% BUY O-PF Higher SG&A due to ongoing restructuring of Vinatea
FPT 5% 7% 22% BUY BUY Telecom and Software Outsourcing spearhead growth while Trading remains a drag
MSN 89% 63% 17% BUY O-PF Positive progress across segments, led by animal feed and banking
MWG 40% 46% 45% BUY BUY Aggressive store openings, solid SSSG and doubling online sales bolster FY16 earnings
PNJ 510% 594% 42% BUY BUY Strong growth in core business, heavy provisions for Dong A Bank in 2015 and asset liquidation in 2016
VNM 20% 29% 11% BUY O-PF Solid volume growth and lower input costs propel FY16 earnings
Real Estate
DXG 27% -24% -30% O-PF M-PF One-off Q4 financial income and earlier deliveries at Luxcity project
KDH 45% 55% 27% O-PF M-PF Deliveries at Melosa, Mega Village and the Venica boost FY16 earnings
NLG 61% 11% 38% O-PF M-PF Continuing deliveries of Ehome projects fuel earning growth along with strong pre-sales growth in 2016
NVL 147% 141% 43% O-PF M-PF Financial income bolstered 2016 earnings growth while estimated total sales contract value grew 25% Y-o-Y
VIC 24% 62% 125% M-PF Earnings grow owing to financial income gain in Q2 2016 by selling Star City project
Construction / Infra
CTD 93% 92% 3% M-PF O-PF Strong backlog and high margins drive FY16. Recent private placement challenges FY17 EPS growth
CII 8% 8% 52% O-PF M-PF Stable income from toll collection and strong financial gains support 2016 earnings
Materials
HPG 89% 72% 4% BUY Strong construction steel sales volume and improved GPM due to low-cost iron ore forward buying
HSG (*) 135% NA 12% O-PF Strong volume growth drove top line while normalized gross margin being cushioned by low effective tax rate
HT1 0% 9% 5% BUY O-PF Slim outsourcing margins and accounting adjustments dampen FY16 growth
DPM -27% -25% -10% O-PF O-PF Weak Q4 earnings mainly due to GPM compression from gas costs recovering faster than urea prices
Power
NT2 -15% -14% -3% BUY BUY Earnings decline due to lower sales volume and weaker CGM price given unexpected heavy rain.
PPC -38% -51% 20% M-PF Profit's plunge is due to lower volume amid compressed competitive generation market price
PC1 1% -16% -2% BUY BUY Contribution to EPS from real estate compensates weak performance of transmission line installations
Oil & Gas
GAS -18% -27% -1% U-PF M-PF Drop in oil prices results in decrease of output prices across most segments
PLC 38% -39% 11% M-PF Weak infrastructure spending slows asphalt demand. Lubricant GPM fall as cheap input costs peter out
PVD -93% -95% NM M-PF M-PF Day rates and utilization rates fell. Abnormal profits from JVs provide support to 2016 earnings
PVS -35% -36% -20% O-PF BUY Profits from provision reversals related to Mechanics & Construction cushion 2016 earnings
Industrials
TLG 28% 25% 14% O-PF Solid sales and margins expansion fuel robust FY16
CSM -10% -14% -2% M-PF Abnormal reverted R&D expenses cushion FY16 results amid subdued core business
DRC -4% -8% -15% M-PF M-PF Non-operation items such as FX gains and other income boosts NPAT above our expectation
Transports
SKG 21.8% 25.4% 12% BUY BUY Solid earnings growth thanks to GPM expansion on low diesel costs

(*) Note: FY of HSG starts from Oct 1 to Sept 30. Therefore the above result is Q1 FY17 growth versus Q1 FY16.
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Current Recommendations – VCSC Coverage


Upside FY17 FY17 Mkt 30D
Current TTM Sector FY17 Sector Foreign
Ticker Sector to Div EPS P/B Cap, ADTV,
Price P/E P/E P/E P/B Room
target Yield Growth USDm USDm
BUY
FPT Technology 46,950 45% 4.9% 22% 10.8 10.0 8.9 2.3 2.2 0% 956 2.0
HPG Steel 31,900 11% 4.7% 4% 4.3 11.5 4.1 2.0 1.7 13% 1,779 6.4
MWG Retailing 168,600 33% 0.9% 45% 15.7 14.4 10.8 6.8 6.0 0% 1,145 1.3
NT2 Utilities 31,500 12% 8.3% -4% 8.9 23.6 9.2 1.8 2.9 27% 400 0.5
PC1 Power 38,600 30% 0.0% -2% 8.7 27.5 8.8 1.5 1.9 24% 128 0.5
PVT O&G Services 13,250 13% 3.8% -16% 10.0 36.2 12.0 1.0 0.9 25% 165 0.5
PNJ Consumer 76,900 30% 2.2% 42% 19.3 16.9 13.6 5.0 3.1 0% 333 0.3
PVS O&G Services 17,200 20% 2.9% -20% 8.8 36.2 11.0 0.7 0.9 21% 339 0.9
SKG Transportation 74,000 31% 1.4% 12% 11.9 10.7 10.6 3.6 2.1 0% 112 0.1
OUTPERFORM
ACB Banks 23,700 9% 0.0% 22% 17.3 13.8 14.2 1.7 1.8 0% 1,031 3.3
CTD Construction 205,000 6% 2.7% 3% 9.9 27.5 9.7 2.5 1.9 6% 696 1.4
CTG Banks 18,100 19% 0.0% 21% 12.4 13.8 10.2 1.1 1.8 0% 2,973 1.1
DPM Fertilizer 23,450 13% 10.7% -10% 9.5 11.5 10.5 1.1 1.7 29% 405 1.0
DQC Lighting 52,000 16% 3.8% -31% 8.9 27.5 12.8 1.4 1.9 23% 73 0.1
GTN Agri-Food 16,150 16% 0.0% 174% 163.1 20.8 59.6 1.5 7.0 49% 178 1.1
HSG Steel 51,500 3% 2.9% 12% 6.9 11.5 6.1 2.5 1.7 20% 447 3.0
HT1* Cement 24,800 -2% 0.0% 5% 12.9 11.5 12.4 1.8 1.7 40% 417 0.4
KBC Industrial Park 15,350 4% 0.0% 71% 12.9 43.1 7.6 0.9 3.1 17% 318 1.9
MBB Banks 15,650 7% 3.2% 18% 10.0 13.8 8.4 1.1 1.8 0% 1,182 0.7
MSN Conglomerate 46,100 21% 0.0% 17% 18.5 20.8 15.8 3.4 7.0 18% 2,315 1.3
TLG* Manufacturing 106,000 2% 2.8% 14% 19.3 16.2 16.9 4.4 3.6 21% 179 0.0
VNM Food Beverage 143,500 5% 3.7% 11% 24.6 20.8 22.3 9.4 7.0 46% 9,188 5.2
MARKETPERFORM
BID Banks 17,000 7% 0.0% 10% 12.0 13.8 10.9 1.4 1.8 29% 2,564 2.8
CII Infrastructure 37,700 -1% 5.7% 52% 11.8 10.7 7.8 2.6 2.1 12% 401 3.7
CSM Tires 19,700 -6% 7.6% -2% 8.5 9.7 8.7 1.5 1.9 42% 90 0.2
DHG Pharmaceuticals 135,000 -11% 2.6% 13% 18.8 16.8 16.7 4.1 3.2 0% 519 0.5
DRC Tires 31,000 -1% 6.5% -15% 10.2 9.7 11.9 2.3 1.9 18% 162 0.5
DXG Real Estate 22,600 -14% 2.2% -30% 6.6 43.1 9.4 1.8 3.1 20% 252 3.6
GAS Utilities 56,800 -5% 5.3% -1% 15.6 23.6 15.7 2.8 2.9 46% 4,794 1.8
KDH Real Estate 24,900 -4% 2.8% 27% 15.4 43.1 12.1 1.7 3.1 2% 257 0.1
NLG Real Estate 28,900 -2% 1.7% 38% 12.2 43.1 8.9 1.6 3.1 4% 181 0.6
NVL Real Estate 70,700 4% 0.0% 42% 20.8 43.1 14.6 4.6 3.1 38% 1,838 3.0
PLC Materials 28,900 -4% 6.9% 11% 12.3 11.5 11.1 1.7 1.7 40% 103 0.0
PPC Utilities 17,050 -4% 10.0% 20% 8.3 23.6 6.9 1.1 2.9 33% 239 0.1
PVD Energy 20,050 -5% 0.0% NM 72.9 36.2 NM 0.6 0.9 22% 339 1.8
SSI Securities 23,600 -11% 4.2% 5% 13.2 10.2 12.6 1.6 1.3 45% 510 3.1
VCB Banks 36,900 10% 1.9% 40% 23.7 13.8 16.9 2.8 1.8 9% 5,857 1.9
VIC Real Estate 42,550 10% 0.0% 125% 66.7 43.1 29.7 3.9 3.1 19% 4,951 1.7
UNDERPERFORM
BVH Insurance 58,900 -10% 1.3% 22% 29.7 31.7 24.3 3.0 3.0 24% 1,768 0.9
SELL
STB Banks 12,650 -42% 0.0% NA 39.7 13.8 NA 1.0 1.8 16% 1,007 3.1

Note: Sectors according to GIC classifications. EPS growth according to VCSC forecast. * under review
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