POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 9TH MARCH 2018, 12:01 PM EST

Ontario Progressive
Conservative Leadership
Race Poll
9th March 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey conducted between March 1st to
8th, 2018 among a sample of 18308 members
of the Progressive Conservative Party of
Ontario. The survey was conducted using
emails and automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Telephone respondents were
interviews on landlines and cellular phones.
Three copies of the Ontario PC Party
membership list were provided to Mainstreet
Research by different leadership campaigns
and matched to each other to ensure the
validity and integrity of the list. Respondents
were dialed or emailed at random.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 0.7%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
and the Alabama special election in 2017.
Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and
meets international and Canadian publication
standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
ELLIOTT NOW LEADS FORD, BUT IT’S STILL CLOSE

9 MARCH 2018 – (TORONTO, ON) – Christine Elliott has a slight edge over Doug Ford in what
is turning into a highly competitive Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leadership
race, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.

The poll surveyed 18308 PC party members between March 1st and March 7th. The
respondents were asked to rank their top three choices. The poll has a margin of error of
+/- 0.7% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Even though they are virtually tied on riding points, Christine Elliott has a six point lead in
popular vote over Doug Ford,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.
“With a strong majority of Caroline Mulroney’s second choice voters also expected to go to
her, we believe that Christine Elliott is a slight favourite when the results are announced on
Saturday.”

When calculating for points per riding, Elliott would get 35.2% on first ballot, and Ford
would garner 34.9%, Mulroney would be at 17.3% and Granic Allen would come in with 12.5%.

In terms of votes among decided voters, Elliott leads with 38.3%, while Ford has 32.2%
support. Caroline Mulroney follows with 17.5% and Tanya Granic Allen has the support of
12% of Conservative members.

“Writing off Doug Ford would be a mistake because he is in good shape coming into
Saturday,” added Maggi. “Over 2/3rds of Granic Allen’s second choice votes will go to Ford
when she drops off the ballot and his vote is more efficient than Elliott’s”.

1000 simulations of the leadership vote using all the responses were run. Elliott won 53% of
the simulations while Ford won 47%.

“We will not be surprised if Ford wins, even though Elliott leads by a nose,” Maggi concluded.

When asked which candidate is most likely to beat Kathleen Wynne in the June election,
43.4% of Conservative members said Elliott was the best choice compared to 35.5% who
said Doug Ford. 15% chose Caroline Mulroney as their best bet to win in June while 6% said
Granic Allen was the likeliest to defeat the Ontario Liberals.

The results of the vote will be announced on Saturday.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Paths To Victory
What Our Polling and Simulations Show About How The Race
Could Unfold
Not much has changed from our last survey of Progressive Conservative members.
This race will be too close to call – but a couple of things have changed from our
last survey.

Once again we ran 1000 simulations based on our polling – each time randomly
selecting turnout levels for each candidate - and again we find it hard to pick a
winner. We do know either Christine Elliott or Doug Ford will likely be the next
leader of the Ontario PC Party. Only those two candidates make to the final ballot
and thus only thus end up as potential winners.

What has changed is that Elliott is now the slight favourite instead of Ford. Out
of the 1000 simulations we ran, Elliott won 530 while Ford won 470. There has
definitely been a shift in favour of Elliott over the past week, but we cannot count
Ford out of the running.

Another thing to note is that support has shifted away from Tanya Granic Allen and
Caroline Mulroney to the frontrunners. Because of this, our simulations now show
scenarios for second ballot victories for both Elliott and Ford. Elliott manages 9
second ballot wins, while Ford gets 64 second ballot wins.

While there is a six percent gap in favour of Elliott, she is essentially neck and neck
with Ford in terms of points per riding. This metric is what will decide the race – not
overall votes. The difference between overall votes and riding points shows that
there is some inefficiency in Elliott’s vote, showing that her campaign might have
leads in ridings where more members are registered.

This is one reason why Doug Ford has a decent chance at winning. Another reason
is that over two thirds of Tanya Granic Allen’s second choices go to Doug Ford.
While Granic Allen drops off on the first ballot on over 90% of the simulations, she
tended to overperform a fair bit. We have her with 12.5% of riding points, but on
average she garners 13.4% on first ballot. Her best result was 17.2%. If Doug Ford
can get 38% on first ballot and Granic Allen has a good first ballot result, then Ford
has a clear path to victory.

Elliott’s path is similar to Ford’s, except she will rely on Caroline Mulroney’s second
choices instead of Granic Allen if she is to win. Elliott ends up winning more
simulations than Ford because of this reliance on Mulroney’s second choice votes.
Mulroney consistently outperforms Granic Allen in our simulations (she averages
17.2% on first ballot and her best performance was 23.3%). About two-thirds of
Mulroney’s second choice votes go to Elliott. Since 2/3rds of Mulroney’s votes
is a larger bloc than 2/3rds of Granic Allen’s votes, Elliott gets more wins in our
simulations, despite Elliott and Ford having virtually identical average first ballot
results (34.8% for Ford, 34.6% for Elliott).

The first ballot results will give big clues as to who will win on Saturday. Expect
both Ford and Elliott to get over 30% - failure to do so will mean certain defeat.
Conversely, if a candidate can get near 38% on first ballot, then they have a clear
path to winning. That said, because Mulroney will likely deliver more second place
votes to Elliott than what Granic Allen will deliver to Ford, Elliott should be in a good
spot to win if she can get to 36-37% on first ballot. We also will not be surprised
if Granic Allen overperforms, as fellow social conservative Brad Trost did in the
federal Conservative leadership race last year. Even though our simulations did
not yield a first ballot victory, Elliott or Ford could get there if there is a significant
collapse in support for one of the candidates.
 If the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election
were held today for whom would you vote?
Support Among All Members
(calculated by votes)

Support Among Decided Members

(calculated by points)
Second Choice Support Broken Out By
Candidate
 Ballot-by-Ballot Scenarios

Which candidate do you think is most likely to

beat Kathleen Wynne in June?
Distribution of First Ballot Percentages For
Each Leadership Candidate
If the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election were held today for whom would you vote?
(calculated by votes)

Ranges of First Ballot Simulated Percentages

Second Choices Broken Out By Candidate

Third Choices Broken Out By Candidate

 QUESTIONNAIRE
Did you register to vote? That is, did you
receive your code in the mail,
and complete the ID verification to receive
your ballot?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Have you voted? Did you login and submit
your ballot through the
online form?
Yes
No
Not Sure
If the Ontario PC Party Leadership Election
were held today for whom would you vote?
(order of responses randomized)
Christine Elliott
Doug Ford
Tanya Granic Allen
Caroline Mulroney
And regardless of who you are supporting
which candidate do you think is most likely
to beat Kathleen Wynne in June?
(order of responses randomized)
Christine Elliott
Doug Ford
Tanya Granic Allen
Caroline Mulroney
What is your gender?
Male
Female
What is your age group?
Under 18 years of age
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older

As you may know, the Ontario PC Party

Leadership Election will use a preferential
ballot on which you will be able to rank the
candidates. If the Leadership Election were
held today which candidate would you
rank second? In other words, who would
be your second choice?
Christine Elliott
Doug Ford
Tanya Granic Allen
Caroline Mulroney

And if the Leadership Election were held

today which candidate would you rank
third? In other words, who would be your
third choice?
Christine Elliott
Doug Ford
Tanya Granic Allen
Caroline Mulroney
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between March
1st and March 7th, 2018, among a sample of 18308 members of the Progressive
Conservative Party of Ontario. The survey was conducted using and emails and
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents on the telephone were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting membership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario.

Three copies of the Ontario PC Party membership list were provided to Mainstreet
Research by different leadership campaigns and matched to each other to ensure
the validity and integrity of the list. Respondents were dialed or emailed at random.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.

Three copies of the party membership list were then provided to Mainstreet Research
by different leadership campaigns and matched to each other to ensure the validity
and integrity of the list. Any member that did not appear on all three lists was
excluded from the frame. Respondents were dialed at random.

In the case of the telephone component of the survey, at least two attempts were
made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were
staggered over multiple times of day to maximize the chances of making contact
with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible
across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document.
If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in
parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted to the distribution of ethnicities among the PC membership
list.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 0.7% at the 95% confidence level. The margin
of error for each subgroup is higher.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of opinion polls.