You are on page 1of 5

To: Interested Parties

From: Chris Grant
General Consultant
Friends of Michael Grimm

Date: March 8, 2018
Subject: NY-11 Survey Results

On behalf of Friends of Michael Grimm, Big Dog Strategies commissioned a poll of n=446 likely
GOP Primary voters in New York’s 11th Congressional District. Interviews were conducted March
4-5, 2018 by telephone. The margin of error of this is +/- 4.57%.

Grimm Bests Donovan in the Republican Primary

Despite 3 years of relentlessly negative media attention, Michael Grimm has built a lead over
incumbent Dan Donovan, 35%-34%, with 31% of the electorate undecided. Grimm leads among
men (36-35) and among women (35-33), and across nearly every age group.

Donovan-Grimm Ballot
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
34.1% 35.2%
40.0% 30.8%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Donovan Grimm Undecided

In addition, Grimm is beating Donovan in Staten Island (37-35) which represents nearly 73% of the
congressional district, and only trailing by 2 points (30-32) in Brooklyn, which represents
approximately 27% of the district.
Donald Trump is a Rockstar Among GOP Voters and Trump Voters Support Michael
Grimm by a 14-point Margin

Among GOP Primary voters, Donald Trump has a 87% favorability rating, with nearly 70% of voters
strongly favorable towards President Trump. Of those voters, Grimm is leading Donovan 42%-
28%, a 14-point margin. Clearly, Donovan’s record as one of the the most-anti Trump
Republicans in Congress is crippling his re-election effort and presents a real hurdle to a victory on
Primary Day.

Trump Favorability
100.0%
69.6%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0% 17.4%
20.0% 4.5% 6.3% 2.3%
0.0%
Very Favorable Somewhat Somewhat Very Not Sure
Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Ballot Test Among Very Favorable
Trump Supporters
1

0.8

0.6 42%
0.4 28% 30%

0.2

0
Donovan Grimm Undecided
Voters Have Favorable Image Ratings of Both Grimm And Donovan
Grimm’s image rating also remains strong, with 65.9% of GOP voters saying they have a favorable
opinion of the former Congressman, while 26.6% saying they have an unfavorable opinion of
Grimm. Grimm’s net image rating is more than 2-1 favorable to unfavorable (+39.3% points)

Dan Donovan also maintains a favorable image rating, 66.5% - 24%. Donovan also maintains a
net positive image rating of more than 2-1, (+42.5%)

Notably, Grimm’s “Very Favorable” image number is more than 7 points higher than Donovan’s
(37.5% - 30.4%); this is a strong indication that Grimm’s support is firmer and more intense
heading into Primary Day.

Donovan Favorability
100.0%
80.0%
60.0% 36.1%
30.4%
40.0% 14.8% 9.2% 9.5%
20.0%
0.0%
Very Favorable Somewhat Somewhat Very Not Sure
Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Grimm Favorability
100.0%
80.0%
60.0% 37.5%
28.4%
40.0%
13.3% 13.3% 7.5%
20.0%
0.0%
Very Favorable Somewhat Somewhat Very Not Sure
Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Conclusion:

Michael Grimm’s lead in the GOP primary in NY-11, combined with his double-digit lead amongst
the most ardent Trump supporters, is a clear sign that the electorate, while tight, is disposed to
nominating Grimm on Primary Day.
Survey Questions and Data
1. What is your current opinion of President Donald Trump?

Very Favorable 69.6%
Somewhat Favorable 17.4%
Somewhat Unfavorable 4.5%
Very Unfavorable 6.3%
Not Sure 2.3%

2. What is your current opinion of Dan Donovan?

Very Favorable 30.4%
Somewhat Favorable 36.1%
Somewhat Unfavorable 14.8%
Very Unfavorable 9.2%
Not Sure 9.5%

3. What is your current opinion of Michael Grimm?

Very Favorable 37.5%
Somewhat Favorable 28.4%
Somewhat Unfavorable 13.3%
Very Unfavorable 13.3%
Not Sure 7.5%

4. Do you think Dan Donovan has performed his job well enough to deserve re-
election, or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance?

Reelect 40.9%
New Person 32.3%
Not Sure 26.9%

5. If the Republican Primary for US Representative were held today who would you vote for:

Donovan 34.1%
Grimm 35.2%
Undecided 30.8%