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Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani

Work-Integrated Learning Programmes Division


First Semester 2016-2017

Mid-Semester Test
(EC-2 Regular)

Course No. : AAOC ZC111


Course Title : Probability & Statistics
Nature of Exam : Closed Book
Weightage : 35% No. of Pages = 1
Duration : 2 Hours No. of Questions = 6
Date of Exam : 25/09/2016 (AN)
Note:
1. Please follow all the Instructions to Candidates given on the cover page of the answer book.
2. All parts of a question should be answered consecutively. Each answer should start from a fresh page.
3. Assumptions made if any, should be stated clearly at the beginning of your answer.
4. All symbols carry the usual meaning as given in the text book.

Q.1. If A and B are independent events, prove that A and B are also independent. [5]

Q.2. A box contains 9 blue and 6 red balls. Four balls are selected at random without replacement.
If X represents the number of blue balls in the selected 4 balls, then
(a) construct the probability density table.
(b) find the mean and standard deviation of X. [6]

Q.3. A random variable X has the Poisson distribution with parameter  > 0, then
(a) find the mean and variance of X.
(b) if P(X = 2) = 3P(X = 4) , find P(X < 3) . [6]

Q.4. A rubber factory produces tires. Of the total production, 25% are of type D, 35% are of type
E and the remaining are of type F. It is known that 5% of type D tires, 4% of type E tires and
2% of type F tires are defective. A tire is chosen at random and found to be defective, find the
probability that it is of type F. [6]

Q.5. Two fair dice are thrown. Let X is a random variable that represents the sum of the numbers
shown up. Find the probability that X will differ from 7 by at most 3 using Chebyshev’s
inequality? [6]
Q.6. A product planner is working on plans for producing a new soap. He wishes to simulate a raw
material demand in order to plan for adequate materials-handling and storage facilities. On
the basis of a usage for a similar product introduced previously, she has developed a
frequency distribution of demand in tons per day for 2- month period. Using the data shown
in the table simulates the raw materials usage requirement for 7 periods (days).
Simulate the demands assuming the random numbers are: 61,49,33,11,60,54,10. [6]

Demand 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Frequency 14 18 16 12 20 14 6

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Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani
Work-Integrated Learning Programmes Division
First Semester 2016-2017
Mid-Semester Test
(EC-2 Regular)
(Solutions and Marking Scheme)
Course No. : AAOC ZC111
Course Title : Probability & Statistics
Nature of Exam : Closed Book
Weightage : 35% No. of Pages = 1
Duration : 2 Hours No. of Questions = 6
Date of Exam : 25/09/2016 (AN)
Note:
1. Please follow all the Instructions to Candidates given on the cover page of the answer book.
2. All parts of a question should be answered consecutively. Each answer should start from a fresh page.
3. Assumptions made if any, should be stated clearly at the beginning of your answer.
4. All symbols carry the usual meaning as given in the text book.

1. Let A and B are independent, then


P(A I B) = P(A).P(B) [1Mark]
Now, A = (A I B) U (A I B) , where A I B and A I B are mutually exclusive events. [1Mark]
So, A = (A I B) + (A I B) . Hence, P(A) = P(A I B) + P(A I B) [1Mark]
P(A I B) = P(A) - P(A I B) = P(A)[1 - P(B)] = P(A).P(B)
Hence, A and B are independent [2Marks]
2. (a)The probability density table is

x 0 1 2 3 4

f(x) 0.011 0.132 0.396 0.369 0.092


[3Marks]
4
(b) Mean, m = E(X) = �x.f (x) = 2.399 [1Mark]
x =0

4
E(X 2 ) = �x 2 .f (x) = 6.509; V(X) = E(X 2 ) - {E(X)}2 = 0.754; s(X) = 0.868 [2Marks]
x =0

3. (a) Let X be the Poisson random variable with parameter  > 0 .


� �
x
m = E(X) = �x.f (x) = �e - = [1Mark]
x =0 x =1 (x - 1)!

E(X 2 ) = �x 2 .f (x) =  2 + . Hence, V(X) =  [2Marks]
x =0

e - . 2 e - . 4
(b) P(X = 2) = 3.P(X = 4) � = 3. � = 2 [1Mark]
2! 4!
P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) = e -2 (1 + 2 + 2) = 5e -2 = 0.6766 [2Marks]
4. Let D, E and F respectively be the event that tire chosen is of type D, E and F. Let A be the event
that tire chosen is defective. [1Mark]
P(D) = 0.25, P(E) = 0.35,P(F) = 0.40, P(A | D) = 0.05, P(A | E) = 0.04, P(A | F) = 0.02 [1Mark]
P(A I F) P(F).P(A | F)
P(F | A) = =
P(A) P(D).P(A | D) + P(E).P(A | E) + P(F).P(A | F)
(0.4)(0.02) 0.008
= = = 0.2319 [4Marks]
(0.25)(0.05) + (0.35)(0.04) + (0.4)(0.02) 0.0345
35
5. m = E[X] = 7, V(X) = [2Marks]
6
Using Chebyshev’s inequality
1
�X - m < ks �
P� ��1 - k2
. For the given problem

3 6
�X - 7 < 3�
P� �, ks = 3, k = [2Marks]
35
1 35 19
�X - 7 < 3�
Now, P � ��1 - k 2 =1 - 54 = 54 [2Marks]

6.

X (Demand) Frequency P(X=x) CDF [F(x)] RN Range RN Simulated Demand

11 14 0.14 0.14 00-13 61 15

12 18 0.18 0.32 14-31 49 14

13 16 0.16 0.48 32-47 33 13

14 12 0.12 0.60 48-59 11 11

15 20 0.20 0.80 60-79 60 15

16 14 0.14 0.94 80-93 54 14

17 6 0.06 1.00 94-99 10 11

[1Mark] [1Mark] [2Mark] [2Mark]

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