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Run regression and interpret results

and lag "LapGNP". "LagUnemp" and "LagInt" by one period Page 2 . Modified Data A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U 1 Prepare data: Dummy variables for modeling the impact of quarters.

83 530147.88225705 R Square 0.27539036 0.34852 -37.05635003 2.5110748 16 2155.04328024 0.7699369 -4.0% Intercept 3571.333816 Observations 32 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 6 3180887.73524 Q3 -246.06664 95.24922 GNP 0.10207 95.14631 14 2025.0487 256.66132 50.972 14.241924 9 2282.76987 -130.8754E-08 2614.48893 47.522764 21 2733.1593353 0.27609 173.493759 3 2344.088E-07 Residual 25 905674.84727 15 1983.629642 5 2452.67045 8 2060.5032748 -372.35089 164.49376 -32.70742 20.750647 17.50638 -280.3386776 18 2298.32313 -178.46258 -97.9617 Total 31 4086561.5716447 0.727701 28.39804 -575.9391325 0.82759916 0.33301 -310.33301 6 2410.4608715 -1.79215 106.75 95.64911 22 2578.67045 -20.2723446 -3.9771305 -3.136719 -444.70742 Q2 -378.95568 -34.68837 40.152777 -110.8447566 0.75808 309.01645366 -444.042 36226.0003365 -110.36327 -49.26003 2614.723905 2 2594.37036 198.88 CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.7783775 Adjusted R S 0.50638 7 2210.79823 163.00909989 0.84727 -114.164322 19 2137.72518811 Standard Erro190.36327 RESIDUAL OUTPUT ObservationPredicted Sales Residuals 1 2736.1503044 0.04328024 Unemp -92.9502687 -2.SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.00057918 -575.16432 -60.47724 176.499717 -150.53711 17 2451.14631 -129.00305381 -150.76987 23 2353.24922 4529.207853 .95568 Int -73.34852 Q1 -176.462585 12 2122.3116297 4 2321.68263688 4.53711 -109.201768 11 1855.912592 7.127303 10 2032.6340722 4.73524 -180.951299 20 2409.75462 464.1273 -74.07695328 -372.32313 13 2223.2798023 0.

856734 27 2697.57614 61.79451 13.3115 -258.24 2632.53732 -74.86602 29 2983.723099 31 2759.2769 312.3115 28 2844.52893 63.4710697 26 2824.14327 142.86602 -246.2054854 25 2924.537323 32 2912.87356 -162.4238576 30 2900.87356 .

136719 .5032748 -180.39804 -49.27539036 0 -1000 0 Q21000 20 -34.152777 Q 20. GNP Residual Plot 400 200 Unemp Residual Plot Residuals Int Residual Plot 0 400 -2002000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Residuals 200 -400 0 400 Q1 Residual Plot Residuals 0 2 GNP 4 200 6 8 10 12 14 16 -200 0 400 Q2 Residual Plot Residuals Unemp 200 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 400 1500 2000 2500 3000 -200 0 Q3 Residu Residuals -1000 0 Int1000 200 2000 3000 4000 -200 400 Upper 95.499717 -200 -37.26003 -1000 -500 0 Q1 200500 1000 1500 -200 0.0% 0 Residuals 4529.

lot sidual Plot 14 16 Q2 Residual Plot 1500 2000 2500 3000 00 Q3 Residual Plot 00 2000 3000 4000 5000 400 0 0 Q1 200500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 00 0 000 0 Q21000 2000 3000 4000 5000 -200 Q3 .

8 0 0 0 83 1 2238 2878 10.6 1 0 0 80 2 2190 2570 7.1 8.4 0 0 0 80 1 2130 2509 7.4 13.3 7.2 0 1 0 80 3 2370 2667 7.2 13.3 1 0 0 81 2 1758 2897 7.2 0 0 0 85 1 2967 4133 7.6 0 0 1 81 4 2208 2878 7.8 0 0 0 82 1 1911 2613 9.2 8.9 9.1 8.9 9.1 7.5 8.9 0 0 0 86 1 3213 4587 7.4 0 0 0 79 1 2562 2640 5.3 0 1 0 84 3 2646 3919 7.8 1 0 0 84 2 2460 3861 7.3 0 1 0 82 3 2046 2544 10.5 1 0 0 85 2 2439 4303 7.4 12.5 10.8 0 0 1 84 4 2898 3594 7.1 7.4 14.9 0 0 1 80 4 2142 2785 6.7 0 1 0 79 3 2520 2701 6 11.9 7.Historical data Year Quarter Sales GNP Unemp Int Q1 Q2 Q3 79 4 2910 2541 5.4 7.5 9.7 7.4 1 0 0 79 2 2385 2595 5.8 0 0 1 82 4 2094 2582 8.1 0 1 0 81 3 1944 2744 8.4 0 1 0 86 3 2750 4796 6.9 9.4 0 0 0 81 1 2196 2835 7.7 9.8 12.2 0 0 0 84 1 2448 3774 7.4 0 0 1 .7 9.1 0 1 0 85 3 2598 4393 7 7.8 0 0 1 85 4 2988 4040 7.4 8.4 1 0 0 83 2 2394 3051 9.2 0 0 1 86 4 3045 4560 7.8 7.9 0 0 1 83 4 2502 2633 10.3 11.7 1 0 0 86 2 2685 4716 6.4 9.3 9.4 15.4 15.1 0 1 0 83 3 2586 3274 8.4 1 0 0 82 2 2031 2529 10 9.

4 0 0 0 79 1 2562 2640 5.2 8.1 8.7 0 1 0 79 3 2520 2701 6 11.7 9.3 7.2 0 1 0 80 3 2370 2667 7.4 1 0 0 82 2 2031 2529 10 9.7 9.4 0 0 0 80 1 2130 2509 7.1 0 1 0 81 3 1944 2744 8.4 14.3 11.3 9.4 12.8 0 0 0 82 1 1911 2613 9.1 7.4 15.6 0 0 1 81 4 2208 2878 7.2 0 0 0 85 1 2967 4133 7.4 8.4 0 0 0 81 1 2196 2835 7.9 9.3 1 0 0 81 2 1758 2897 7.7 7.2 13.9 0 0 1 80 4 2142 2785 6.9 9.4 1 0 0 83 2 2394 3051 9.5 1 0 0 85 2 2439 4303 7.1 0 1 0 83 3 2586 3274 8.9 9.8 0 0 1 84 4 2898 3594 7.9 0 0 0 86 1 3213 4587 7.4 15.8 1 0 0 84 2 2460 3861 7.Historical data Year Quarter Sales GNP Unemp Int Q1 Q2 Q3 79 4 2910 2541 5.6 1 0 0 80 2 2190 2570 7.1 8.5 9.5 10.1 0 1 0 85 3 2598 4393 7 7.4 13.4 1 0 0 79 2 2385 2595 5.3 0 1 0 82 3 2046 2544 10.4 0 1 0 86 3 2750 4796 6.8 0 0 1 85 4 2988 4040 7.8 12.9 7.2 0 0 0 84 1 2448 3774 7.4 7.5 8.8 0 0 1 82 4 2094 2582 8.2 0 0 1 86 4 3045 4560 7.8 7.4 9.7 1 0 0 86 2 2685 4716 6.9 0 0 1 83 4 2502 2633 10.1 7.4 0 0 1 .8 0 0 0 83 1 2238 2878 10.3 0 1 0 84 3 2646 3919 7.