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FED SURVEY

March 20, 2018
These survey results represent the opinions of 40 of the nation’s top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.

They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on March 15-17, 2018. Participants were not required to answer every question.

Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.

1. At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve will:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Raise interest
rates 100%

Lower interest
rates 0%

Keep rates
unchanged 0%

Don't know/
unsure 0%

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2. After its upcoming meeting, the Federal Reserve's next
directional move will most likely be:
Raise interest rates Lower interest rates
Move to negative interest rates Launch new quantitative easing
100%
100%
100% 100%
98% 98%
95% 95%
94%
90% 92%
90%
88%
Raise interest rates: 100%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20% Lower interest rates: 0%

10% 10%
Launch new quantitative easing: 0%
10%
5% 5%
4%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0%
0%
Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar
27 '16 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 '17 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 '18 20

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(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)

When will the Federal Reserve take this action?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Apr 0%

May 3%

Jun 83%

Jul 5%

Aug 3% Average:

June
Sep 8% 2019

Oct 0%

Nov 0%

Dec 0%

Jan '19 0%

Feb 0%

After Feb '19 0%

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3. How many times in total will the Federal Reserve hike
rates (assuming 25-basis point increases) in …?

2018 hikes 2019 hikes

4.00

3.50

3.45

3.21
3.00

2.86 2.84
Average

2.50 2.63
2.48
2.39
2.26
2.00

1.50

1.00
Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Jan 30 Mar 20
Survey Dates

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4. How do you view the recent Trump administration tariffs
on steel and aluminum?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Part of a
broader policy
shift toward 53%
more import
restrictions

Isolated actions
limited to
these particular 13%
industries
and products

Too soon to
tell if they are
part of a shift 35%
or isolated

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5. What is the most likely outcome from the steel and
aluminum tariffs?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

More U.S.
jobs overall 13%

Fewer U.S.
jobs overall 48%

No change
in U.S. jobs 35%

Don't know/
unsure 5%

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6. Are you concerned about a trade war between the U.S.
and its major trading partners?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes 75%

No 23%

Don't
know/ 3%
unsure

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7. How would you view a U.S. exit from the North American
Free Trade Agreement?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very
negative 48%

Negative 33%

Neutral 15%

Positive 3%

Very
positive 0%

Don't
know/ 3%
unsure

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8. In general, how do you view the Trump administration's
trade policies?

Jan 30 Mar 20
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Positive
16%
for U.S.
economic
growth 3%

Neutral
8%
for U.S.
economic
growth 13%

Negative
55%
for U.S.
economic
growth 63%

Too soon
to tell
21%
the impact
on U.S.
economic 23%
growth

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9. Which of the following statements most closely aligns
with your view on the recent market pullback?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

A healthy
part of the
market cycle;
we're past 60%
the worst
of it

A red
flag for
the markets; 30%
expect more
sell offs

Don't know/
unsure 10%

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10. How has the recent market volatility influenced your
views on stocks?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

More
bullish 8%

Unchanged 73%

More
bearish 20%

Don't
know/ 0%
unsure

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11. Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job
President Trump is doing handling the economy?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly
approve 13%

Approve 45%

Neutral 20%

Disapprove 18%

Strongly
disapprove 5%

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12. Please rate the members and alternate members of
the Federal Open Market Committee on a scale of 0 to 10,
with 0 being the most dovish and 10 being the most
hawkish.

Most dovish Neutral Most hawkish

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Jerome Powell
Chairman 5.4
William Dudley
Vice Chairman 4.6

Lael Brainard 3.5

Randal Quarles 5.4
Raphael Bostic
Atlanta 4.7
Eric Rosengren
Boston 5.2
Charles Evans
Chicago 3.1
Loretta Mester
Cleveland 6.8
Esther George
Kansas City 7.6
Mark Mullinix *
Richmond 5.1
John Williams
San Francisco 5.2
James Bullard
St. Louis 3.3

* The survey mistakenly listed Mark Mullinix as the Richmond Fed representative. He was
interim president during 2017. Thomas Barkin started as Richmond Fed president in January,
2018.

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13. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?

December 31, 2018 December 31, 2019

3,200

3005
3,000
2928

2937
2862

2,800 2839

2775

2708

2,600

2588 2593
2555 2564 2562

2480
2,400 2453

2,200

2,000

1,800
Dec Jan 31 Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar 20
13 2017 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30
2018
Survey Dates

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14. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year
Treasury note will be on … ?

December 31, 2018 December 31, 2019

4.0%

3.54%
3.5% 3.44% 3.43% 3.44%
3.37%

3.22% 3.24%
3.17%
3.05% 3.03% 3.06% 3.07%
2.95%
3.0%

2.84%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar 20
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30
2017 2018
Survey Dates

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15. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020

3.5%

2.86%

3.0% 2.90%

2.73% 2.70% 2.67%
2.67%2.70% 2.68% 2.85%
2.60%
2.56%
2.49% 2.80%
2.5%
2.54%
2.25% 2.42% 2.24% 2.23%
2.17% 2.19%
2.22% 2.15% 2.14%
2.07% 2.06%
2.03%
2.10%
2.0% 1.87% 2.06%
1.81% 2.02%

1.78%
1.69%
1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar
26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20
2017 2018

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16. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%

3.5%

3.30%

3.20% 3.21%
3.17%
3.11% 3.18%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92%
2.85% 2.94%
2.91%
2.85% 2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%

2.42% 2.44%

2.29%

2.0%
Sep 16

Sept 16

Jul 26

Sep 20

Sep 19

Mar 20
Jun 16

Jun 14

Jun 13
Oct 28
Dec 16

Mar 17

Jul 28

Oct 27

Jan 26 '16

Jan 31 '17
Jan 27, '15

Dec 15

Mar 15

Dec 13

Mar 14

Jul 25

Oct 31

Jan 30 '18
Dec 12
Aug 20

Apr 28

Aug 25

Apr 26

Aug 24

May 2
Nov 1

Survey Dates

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17. When do you believe fed funds will reach its
terminal rate?

2017 2018 2019
Survey date
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Aug 20, 2014 Q4
Sept 16 Q3
Oct 28 Q4
Dec 16 Q1
Jan 27, 2015 Q1
Mar 17 Q4
Apr 28 Q1
June 16 Q1
July 28 Q2
Aug 25 Q3
Sept 16 Q1
Oct 27 Q3
Dec 15 Q1
Jan 26, 2016 Q2
Mar 15 Q3
Apr 26 Q4
Jun 14 Q4
Jul 26 Q4
Aug 24 Q4
Sept 20 Q4
Nov 1 Q1
Dec 13 Q2
Jan 31, 2017 Q2
Mar 14 Q2
May 2 Q2
June 13 Q2
Jul 25 Q2
Sep 19 Q2
Oct 31 Q3
Dec 12 Q3
Jan 30, 2018 Q3
Mar 20 Q3

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18. What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in real U.S. GDP for …?
2018 2019

3.0%
2.94%

2.85%
2.85%
2.8% +2.76%+2.75%
2.76%

2.72%
2.61% 2.70%
+2.62%
2.6% 2.60%

+2.58%

2.4% +2.45% 2.45%

2.2%

2.0%

1.8%
Jan 31 Jan 30
Dec 13 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Mar 20
'17 '18
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62% +2.58% +2.45% 2.45% 2.60% 2.61% 2.85% 2.94% 2.76%
2019 2.85% 2.70% 2.72%

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19. What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for …?
2018 2019

2.8%

2.64%

2.6% 2.57%
2.54%
2.50%
2.44%
2.41%
2.4%
2.38%

2.28% 2.32% 2.32%
2.30%
2.2%
2.23%

2.15% 2.14%

2.0%

1.8%

1.6%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar 20
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30
2017 2018
Survey Dates

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20. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S.
economic recovery? (Percentage points)

Outcome of US presidential election
European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake
Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0

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Outcome of US presidential election
European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake
Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0

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Outcome of US presidential election
European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake
Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0

Other responses:
 CEOs who cave in to equity analysts  Overall debt levels, including
who want them to raise dividends unfunded liabilities
and buy back shares rather than  Political uncertainty
investing in plant and equipment  Reversing QE consequences
 Weaker profit margins  Share revaluation of asset prices

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21. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0=No chance
of recession, 100=Certainty of recession)
40%

36.1%

This survey:
35%
34.0% 14.3%

30%
28.5% 28.8%

26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9%24.1% 23.2%

22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20% 20.3% 18.9%
18.8%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1% 14.3%
15.3% 15.0% 14.9%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6% 13.7%
13.0%

10%

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22. What is your primary area of interest?

Other
24%
Economics
41%
Currencies
0% Fixed Income
11%

Equities
24%

Comments:

Marshall Acuff, Managing Director, Silvercrest Asset
Management: Year-to-date stock prices are lagging increasing
consensus earnings suggesting the potential for higher stock prices
during the first quarter profits reporting period.

Jim Bianco, President, Bianco Research: The source of recent
market volatility is rising inflation expectations, the highest in the
post-crisis period, leading to the market fearing that global central
balance sheets will pull back.

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer, Bleakley Advisory
Group: There is not enough appreciation of the liquidity drain via
quantitative tightening that is about to increase again to a quarterly
run rate of $90B vs $60B in Q1 and $30B in Q4.

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Kathy Bostjancic, Head of U.S. Macro Investor Services,
Oxford Economics USA: We will be eager to see if Fed officials still
forecast a moderate overshoot in real economic growth compared to
the long-run potential and forecast a fall in the unemployment rate
below the long-run equilibrium (NAIRU) as the labor market
continues to tighten. This led Fed officials to forecast, as of
December, that the fed funds rate would rise to 3.1% by the end of
2020, above the long-run neutral projection of 2.75% and indicative
of a moderately restrictive monetary policy stance, which increases
the chances of an economic slowdown in 2020.

Changes to these long-term forecasts, in the context of fiscal
stimulus, will provide insight into the Fed's current reaction function
and be instructive in understanding the possible future path of
interest rates.

John Donaldson, Director of Fixed Income, Haverford Trust
Co.: A 25 basis point increase is as certain as certain can be. With 3-
month Bills at 1.77% and 3-month LIBOR at 2.14%, the markets are
leaving the FOMC with little choice and giving investors the best
opportunities at the short end of the curve in the past several years.

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research, Renaissance Macro
Research: While market participants appear to be on high alert for
a sharp inflation upturn, we're skeptical. With strong growth in the
labor force and the prospect of better productivity growth, we see
price pressures as muted, allowing the Fed to continue on its gradual
rate path.

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Robert Fry, Chief Economist, Robert Fry Economics LLC: The
very slow productivity growth since the end of 2010 is an historical
aberration, not a new normal. It was caused by the fallout from the
financial crisis (Reinhart and Rogoff), excessive regulation, corporate
taxes that were uncompetitive by international standards, and oil
prices that were over $100/barrel from 2010 to 2014. All of those
problems are behind us. Productivity growth should return to
historical norms -- faster if businesses respond to tax cuts by
investing heavily in plant and equipment.

Kevin Giddis, Head of Fixed Income Capital Markets, Raymond
James Financial: While wage and price inflation may be the biggest
risk to economic growth and long-term interest rates, the only real
inflation to date has been to "over forecast" its arrival.

Stuart Hoffman, Senior Economic Advisor, PNC Financial: First
quarter real GDP growth of only 2% suffering from usual downward
seasonal bias exaggerated by a colder and snowier winter than
usual. Expect a spring quarter real GDP growth rebound into the 3.5-
4.0% range. Why are the markets surprised when this has
happened in each of the past four years?

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist, B. Riley FBR: The market
has shifted from a fear of a monetary policy misstep, tightening too
aggressively, to a trade policy mistake, escalating into a trade war
with China. The balance of risk for equities has moved from the Fed
to the White House.

John Kattar, Chief Investment Officer, Ardent Asset
Management: The Fed will attempt to steer a course between the
threat of inflation and the need to accommodate large and rising
deficits. Fed funds will be capped at just over 2% and balance sheet
declines will be small.

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Ed Keon, Chief Investment Strategist, QMA, a PGIM Company:
The global economy, including the U.S., is in fine shape now. A trade
war could hurt growth, but if productivity rebounds as we think it
might, this economic growth cycle and bull market might have more
years to run.

Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist, National Retail Federation:
Given the strong labor market, recent tax cuts, and elevated
consumer sentiment, consumer spending will remain steady and
improving in the coming months. Seasonal adjustment factors may
again be distorting the performance of the economy. It is way too
early to draw conclusions about the impact of tax cuts on household
spending.

David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer,
Cumberland Advisors: One man's income is another man's
expenses. No one wins a trade war.

Subodh Kumar, President, Subodh Kumar & Associates: Much
has occurred just in the first half of March 2018 in the complexities
of mega mergers and market valuation, trade frets and major
political developments. The same can be said about emergent
observations by major central banks that have been most tied to
quantitative ease. Political stress is indicated from the U.S., Europe,
China and Russia. Each have major developments. It contrasts to
recent years of low volatility and broad risk on/risk off attributions
onto equity and fixed income market behavior. We expect events
leading up to the ides of March 2018 presage market tryst with
higher volatility. Current market and fundamental aspects, as well as
those previously ignored, are likely to add to risk premiums.

Rob Morgan, Chief Investment Officer, Sethi: The Fed will raise
rates at the March meeting, and begin to signal in the
pronouncement and future commentary that four hikes in 2018 is
the new expectation of the committee.

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Joel Naroff, President, Naroff Economic Advisors: Either the tax
cut works and strong growth leads to higher inflation or the deficit
explodes and rates rise. In other words, rates are going up.

Michael Painchaud, Director of Research, Market Profile
Theorems: The QE initiative, in particular QE3, which was a big
mistake, was 90% of the driver of asset price inflation. If this is
true, QT (Quantitative Tightening) is the inverse, and is likely to
arrive bearing thorns. The current extremely high level of equity
valuation is not positioned to offset the impact of QT. It would take
an extraordinarily high level of GDP growth (in excess of 3.5%) to
maintain even the current level of equity prices in 2018 and 2019.

Lynn Reaser, Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene
University: Markets will monitor Mr. Powell's first meeting as chair
closely to recalibrate his position on their dove-hawk meter. The
Fed's most important decision may be to assess how severe a risk
the threat of a trade war now presents.

John Roberts, Director of Research, Hilliard Lyons: Valuations
continue to worry us, although in light of the current economic
growth environment, we see no downward market catalyst and
anticipate overall continued market strength. However, should a
downward catalyst arise, current market valuations could create
significant downward risk.

John Ryding, Chief Economist, RDQ Economics: The U.S.
economy is doing well, the manufacturing sector is gaining ground,
the economy is at full employment, but inflation pressures are rising.
I couldn't imagine a worse time to impose tariffs. Even without the
threat of retaliation the tariffs are an unwise course of action. There
are far more jobs tied to using steel than making steel.

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Allen Sinai, Chief Global Economist and Strategist, Decision
Economics: U.S. and world economies taking off to new "New
Normal" much higher growth paths.

Hank Smith, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Haverford Trust
Company: Larry Kudlow was the BEST choice; let's pray Trump
listens to him and acts on his advice.

Richard D. Steinberg, CFA, Chief Investment Officer,
Steinberg Global Asset Management: If investors can look past
the daily chaos and focus on earnings trends, the stock market could
surprise on the upside.

Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, Grant Thornton: The threat of a
trade war creates uncertainty which fuels hesitation by businesses.
The result has historically dealt a blow to investment, which means
that tariff and threats of a trade war are offsetting the very
incentives for business investment that the corporate tax cuts were
supposed to stimulate. That would further increase the interest and
overall costs to tax payers of recent fiscal stimulus.

Peter Tanous, Chairman, Lynx Investment Advisory: When the
10-year goes above 3%, we'll finally realize the enormous burden we
face servicing the national debt. If interest on the national debt held
by the public rises to the 30-year average of 5%, debt service will
cost more than the Defense Department budget and will consume
one half of all personal income taxes collected by the IRS.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 20, 2018
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FED SURVEY
March 20, 2018

Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist, Wells
Fargo Securities: The greatest risk from tariffs appear to be the
volatility that they create in the financial markets about worries
about what might happen next. Trump is getting tougher in trade
negotiations and there is a slightly better than even chance this
stance will result in an improved NAFTA and better trade deal with
China. There is also a smaller but still significant risk the tougher
stance on trade will unduly slow global trade and global economic
growth.

Scott Wren, Senior Global Equity Strategist, Wells Fargo
Investment Institute: Expect continued volatility as the market
debates wage pressure, general inflation and whether the Fed will
hike rates more than three times in 2018. We look for slight wage
pressure, modestly higher general inflation, and three Fed rate
hikes. The single most important piece of economic data for at least
the next six months will be the year-over-year change in average
hourly earnings contained in each employment report. A wage jump
(3.0 or above) will hit the market, while anything below 2.9% will at
least keep stocks bid for now.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics: The economy
is boomy, and threatens to overheat as the massive deficit finance
tax cuts and government spending increase hit the economy this
year and next.

Clare Zempel, Principal, Zempel Strategic: With respect to trade
issues, your suggested responses ignored the extent to which recent
tariff threats are a bargaining tool, which they could well be. With
respect to monetary policy, you overlook market monetarism's
principals and attach too much importance to the fed funds rate.
With respect to threats, bad ideas seem to be driving out the good
here and abroad.

CNBC Fed Survey – March 20, 2018
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