Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, March 2018 1

To: Interested Parties
Fr: Lake Research Partners
Re: WA-03 Poll Results
Date: March 16, 2018

Our recent survey of likely November 2018 general election voters in Washington’s 3rd Congressional
District shows incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler much more vulnerable than she has been in years past.1
Only 39% of voters approve of her job performance, and only 38% of voters in the district say they would
vote to re-elect her. Further, only 27% of voters in the 3rd district think Republicans in Congress are doing
an excellent or good job.

Herrera Beutler Re-Elect

Consider voting for
Vote to Re-elect someone else Vote to replace Don't know
38

22 20 19

Ballots

While Carolyn Long starts out with low name identification, she closes the gap quickly, going from an initial
ballot of 29% to 49% for Herrera Beutler, to a 4-point race (41% to 45%) after positive profiles of both
candidates and two short messages. Jaime Herrera Beutler’s initial support among independent voters
collapses, shifting to Long by a net +30 points during the survey. With enough resources to communicate
her message, Long can close this race to the margin of error very quickly.

Initial Ballot Informed Ballot

49 45
41
29
21
13
18 36 28 37

Long JHB Undecided Long JHB Undecided

****
Please do not hesitate to reach out to David Mermin (dmermin@lakeresearch.com) at 202-776-9066 should you have
any questions about this memo.

1
Lake Research Partners conducted a live telephone survey among 400 likely November 2018 general election voters in
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District. The survey was conducted March 8-12, 2018 and has a margin of error of +/-4.9%.