Appendix A

Terms of Reference (Draft)
Consulting Service for Country Study on Central Asia

1. Background of the Study

1-1. Background
Central Asia is a geopolitically and economically strategic important region in Eurasia since neighboring Asia and Europe. Historically, the region has been paid attentions by various stakeholders due to abundant natural resources, such as oil, gas, gold and rare metals. Since the independence of republics in the region, the government of Japan has been promoting enhancement of diplomatic and economic relations with the Central Asian countries and has been providing development cooperation to the region for the growth and stabilization of the region. In the past, Japan had approved 26 ODA Loan Projects and 321,961 million yen in total for the Central Asian countries through the former Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), which is the current Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The number of the Japanese ODA loan project in the region is still limited, and there had no ODA loan project approved for Turkmenistan, Kirgiz and Tajikistan since 1998. On the other hand, the new JICA is planning to formulate an operational plan of development cooperation for Central Asia for the next five years and needs to review the recent development of the region, in particular in the three countries mentioned above. In addition, it is essential for JICA to understand the current and future structure of regional and international cooperation in the region. Therefore, JICA has decided to conduct a comprehensive study on the entire region of Central Asia as well as the three countries of Turkmenistan, Kirgiz and Tajikistan. Because of that, JICA does not have sufficient necessary information for Yen Loan Cooperation, such as debt situation and economic situation etc. in Central Asian countries. Moreover, the relationships with countries where enhance the influence both politically and economically in this area such as Russia and China, countries where have a important role for regional security and development such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, and major donors such as World Bank, ADB and EBRD, should be paid attention.

1-2. Objectives of the Study
This study aims to compile necessary information in order to in order to formulate JICA’s operational plan for the next five year, including ODA loan projects, for the Central Asian countries, in particular, Turkmenistan, Kirgiz and Tajikistan. The main objectives of the study are as follows:

Appendix A - 1

Appendix A

(1) Reviewing political and economic situation, (2) Understanding diplomatic and economic relationships with neighboring countries, especially Russia, China, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and development assistance trend of the major donors, including World Bank, ADB and EBRD in the Central Asian Region. (3) Compiling country profiles of Turkmenistan, Kirgiz and Tajikistan, including politics, economy and development plans. 2. Outline of the Study

2-1. Region to be studied
Central Asia (including Turkmenistan, Kirgiz and Tajikistan), Russia, China, Afghanistan and Pakistan

2-2. Outline
(1) Regional Study on Central Asia (A) Outlook of political and diplomatic climate of Central Asia (a) Review of political and social situations and international relations in Central Asia (b) Understanding of issues to be concerned about the diplomatic and cooperation policies of countries in Central Asia, including Russia, China, Afghanistan and Pakistan (c) Review of regional cooperation organizations (CIS, SCO, EAEC etc.) (d) Review of assistance trend of each major donor (WB, ADB, EBRD etc.) to Central Asia (B) Economic Analysis (a) Review of transition to market economy in the region (b) Review of relationships between Central Asia and the neighboring countries (including labor migration issue) (c) Review of foreign investment and trade trends (2) Country Study (Turkmenistan, Kirgiz and Tajikistan) (A) Review of political and social situations and international relations in each country (B) Review of national development strategies or plans of each country (C) Macroeconomic and debt sustainability analysis of each country (D) Major sector survey (including performances and future trend of international farms) (E) Review of development assistance by the major donors to each country

Appendix A - 2

Appendix A

(F) Trend review of regional cooperation organizations (CIS, SCO, EAEC etc.)

3. Schedule of Study
The schedule of study is as follows: a. Start of Study: b. Preparatory work: c. Inception report d. Field visit mid-Feb. 2009 from mid-Feb. to late Feb. 2009 late Feb. 2009 from early Mar. to early Apr. 2009 (about 10 days for each country) e. Analytical Work: f. Drafting of evaluation report g. Completion of final report from early Apr. to mid-Apr. 2009 late Apr. 2009 late May 2009

Final report shall be submitted from OPMAC to JICA late May 2009.

4. Study Team The following Japanese experts of OPMAC are engaged in this work. Name Yuji Morimoto Title Team Leader/ Development Planning Responsibility

Hisamie Nakamura

Sector Analysis/ Economic Analysis

Naomi Murayama

Sector Analysis/ Investment and Trade

Manabu Shimizu

International Relations

5. Scope of Work for Country Expert

Appendix A - 3

Appendix A

***** (Company’s name), here in after referred to as the “Study Assistant”) is support for OPMAC, which is the original contractor with JICA, to the Study. Study Assistant provides the following assistance to OPMAC.

4.1 Information Collection and Analytical Work:
Collect the following necessary information and analyze them (if any, translate key information from Russian or local language into English); (1) Macroeconomic and fiscal data, including external debt, (2) Trade and foreign direct investment, including list of major foreign company and their future plan, (3) Recent development of the major sector, including electricity, gas, water supply, transportation, and so on, (4) Policies on public utilities and services, including tariff system, (5) Policies and performance of privatization, including participation of foreign company, in particular, into the major sectors, (6) In and outflows of migrating labor between Central Asia and the neighboring countries

4.2 Preparatory Work: mid-Feb. to late Feb. 2009
Prior to actual implementation of field visits by OPMAC in each country, Study Assistant shall be engaged in the following preparation works: a) To arrange meetings and interviews with relevant organizations and people, including Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, major donors (World Bank, ADB, EBRD etc.) and so forth, b) To deliver questionnaires to the concerned organizations and people and provide necessary support for the organizations and the people to complete the questionnaire, just in case, c) To translate questionnaires from English or Japanese into Russian and answers from Russian into English or Japanese, d) To make necessary arrangements of accommodation and domestic transportation for the field visits by Japanese experts of OPMAC and Study Assistant.

4.3 Field Visits by Japanese Experts: from early March 2009
During the field visits in each country by the Japanese experts above, Study Assistant shall provide the following services:

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Appendix A

a) To coordinate meetings and interviews with the concerned organizations and people, b) To accompany with the international expert for the meetings or interviews arranged and support to fulfill the questionnaires through interpreting and recording discussions and interviews, c) To support the Japanese experts to collect necessary data and information for the study, including socio-economic statistical data. d) To translate documents written in Russian or local language into English which are essentially required for analysis, if necessary.

4.4 Follow-up of Field Visits by Japanese Expert: from early -April to late May 2009
The Study Assistant follows up the field visits by the Japanese experts in case that all the necessary data, information and questionnaires cannot be collected during the field visits. a) To collect the completed answer to the questionnaire and other document requested to the concerned organizations and other relevant organizations.

b) To make interviews to the concerned organizations and the other relevant organizations. c) To collect other necessary data and information, if necessary.

6. Estimated Input of Evaluation Assistant and Working Schedule

5.1 Work Volume
During the period from XX February to XX June 2009, the estimated work volume is Up to 30 person-days. Study Assistant is required to work and to accompany with the Japanese consultants at full time basis during the filed visits by the Japanese consultants.

5.2 Qualifications of Evaluation Assistant

• • •

Experience in analytical work on politics and economics, Experience in arrangement of meetings and interviews with government organization, private companies and donors, Good communication and writing skills in English.

Appendix A - 5

Appendix B

Appendix C - 1

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