CONFIRMED, PAKATAN WILL WIN

GE14! MALAYS START TO REALIZE

THEY WILL BENEFIT THE MOST –
ONE TERM OUT OF POWER WILL
TEACH UMNO A LESSON & FORCE
IT TO CLEAN UP ITS ACT
April 1, 2018

April is full of things we can look forward to, but all eyes will be on the 14th
General Election (GE14). Before the parliament has even dissolved, analysts,
politicians and other speculators from both side of the political divide are already
offering their predictions and evidence as to which party will capture
Putrajaya in GE14 – Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Harapan?

In time, you will know what it’s like to lose. Image from HypeBeast.

The question is obviously of interest to many Malaysians. After all, it determines

the fate of the entire country, and its exciting to see who is going to lead us for
the next 5 years. But this time around, all evidence points that Pakatan
Harapan might actually win the elections, and here’s why:

1. The Mahathir effect will cause a Malay tsunami for Pakatan

According to political risk news and analysis publication Global Risk Insights, the
return of Dr Mahathir to politics is significant and perhaps among the biggest
factors behind Pakatan defeating BN in the next election. In their report, they
credit Mahathir with unifying Pakatan and allowing them to win over rural
constituencies that they would otherwise have been unable to enter. Think of it
as Pakatan becoming friends with the popular kids at school and finally getting
invited to all the parties.

But Mahathir’s influence is only part of the broader picture expected to be seen in
the upcoming elections. Many are predicting a “Malay tsunami” this time round,
referring to a tidal wave of support for Pakatan in previously UMNO-held
seats. Despite the term being first used by DAP Kluang MP Liew Chin
Tong back in 2015, it was revived last year by Bersatu president Muhyiddin

Yassin to describe UMNO’s loss of support among Malays.

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 “The leaders are getting nervous. They know the people, the Malays
themselves, are rejecting Umno.” – Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin
Yassin, as quoted in The Malaysian Insight.

Although Mahathir’s role in Pakatan is expected to be the key reason for this,
high living costs, lack of jobs, and other economic problems will also be another
key trigger for a Malay tsunami. But speaking of triggers…

2. The number of allegations against the gomen are getting hard to

ignore

When the first reports of 1MDB were just starting to come out in 2014,
Malaysians would have NO IDEA how far and wide the allegations about
corruption would spread. Almost four years later, we’ve seen an UMNO
leader file police reports against 1MDB in five countries, a deputy PM and
an AG sacked for poking around 1MDB, the US Department of Justice filing a
lawsuit to seize money that had been illegally taken from 1MDB, aaand…
Leonardo DiCaprio having to return an Oscar gifted to him by some flers
connected to 1MDB.

Thankfully, he has his own one now. Image from Know Your Meme.

But this hasn’t even been the only scandal to hit BN in the past five years. Two
years ago, questions were raised when federal land authority FELCRA chaired
by BN MP Bung Mokhtar spent a RM687 million to bail out a construction
project. A year later, another BN MP, Annuar Musa, was suspended as
chairman of MARA for allegedly forcing the government agency to sponsor a
Kelantan football team. A couple months after, suspicious payments by land
scheme company FELDA resulted in the suspension of its CEO and CFO.

In response to these scandals, voters in Ketereh (Annuar Musa’s constituency)

and FELDA settlements have increasingly shown discontent with BN. To tap
into these sentiments, Pakatan’s manifesto launched last monthpromised that
they would set up a Royal Commission of Inquiry to investigate each of these
scandals and restructure the management of the companies involved.

Which might be exactly what they need to win this election, especially when you
consider…

3. BN was already unpopular in 2013 BEFORE this whole 1MDB

thing

Although Najib was seen by many as a reformist in the last elections, BN still
suffered its biggest defeat everby winning less than 50 percent of the popular
vote for the first time in history. Today, they have the same guy as PM + all
these extra scandals that weren’t there in 2013, which would explain why support

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for BN has been dwindling across Malaysia, much to Pakatan’s favour. Kinda like
if ugaiz found out the weird kid in your school ALSO hates kittens.

WHY WOULD SOMEONE DO THIS? Image from YouTube.

According to the Invoke survey of over 200,000 RESPONDENTS across the

peninsular Malaysia, only 29% of Malays supported BN in
February compared to the 41% support it enjoyed in December. This
translates into a6% decrease each month which if compared to Pakatan, is
worse once they realize Malay support for Pakatan has been steadily increasing,
from 10% in December to 14% in February.

This pattern has also been recorded by other researches as well. Earlier this
year, the Merdeka Centre surveyed over 1,000 respondents in Johor, which
has long been considered to be a BN stronghold. There, they found that
support for BN among Malays in Johor had fallen from 83% in GE13 all the
way down to 58%. On the other hand, researchers from Singapore’s ISEAS-
Yusof Ishak Institute predict that if Pakatan can get just 35% of Malay
support in three cornered fights, they stand to win at least 16 seats that
currently belong to BN.

“The most significant decline (in support for BN in Johor) was among Malay
voters.” – Merdeka centre executive director Ibrahim Suffian, as quoted in The
Malaysian Insight.

Even the Pakatan tudung got more likes than the BN one. Image from Wanny
Jibril.

However the Invoke and Merdeka Centre studies have only focused on
peninsular Malaysia. Because over in East Malaysia…

4. Sabah and Sarawak might finally be waking up

According to former Sabah Chief Minister Harris Salleh, there was a huge
possibility of BN losing Sabah and Sarawak on the federal level, although it
would hold on to them at the state level. He said that voters in those states were
growing frustrated with the government because of its selective and
discriminatory policies, and he believed that the youth vote would have a
significant impact against BN.

“It is not a question of whether Sabahans and Sarawakians are being deprived of
their rights by the federal government, but the people here have heard lots of

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things. They are worried about what is happening in KL.” – Harris Salleh, as
quoted by Free Malaysia Today.

Or maybe they’re just tired of us forgetting that they’re Malaysians. Screencap

from Datuk Masidi Manjun’s Twitter.

But his claims haven’t been the only rumblings in East Malaysia. In 2016, former
cabinet minister and Semporna MP Shafie Apdal became one of the UMNO
members who got kicked out of the party for questioning 1MDB in public. Later
that year, he turned down offers to join Bersatu so he could form his own
party, Warisan. Despite making it clear that they would not be joining Pakatan,
Shafie confirmed that ongoing negotiations between the two were almost being
finalised. Then if that wasn’t enough, just a few days ago 1,600 people quit
UMNO to join Warisan.

Over in Sarawak, rumors have been buzzing about the state wanting to secede,
although its Chief Minister Adenan Satem strongly deny these. Still,
these telltale signs of discontent in states that have long been considered fixed
deposit support for BN is troubling for them. Former law minister turned DAP
member Zaid Ibrahim even speculated that if Pakatan can win enough
seats on the peninsular, BN component parties in Sabah and Sarawak will jump
ship to join Pakatan in GE14.

But now that we’ve mentioned fixed deposit support banks…

5. Non-Malays are kinda in the bag for Harapan

Really wan… we’re not lion. Image from Liew Chin Tong’s FB.

In Invoke’s data projections of support for Pakatan among non-Malays, it was

revealed that Chinese voter support was at its 2013 level of above 80%. Among
Indians, BN had 60% of voter support compared to Pakatan’s 40%. However, this
was still comparatively high given that BN used to have an 80%
share among Indian voters. Plus, even with 40%, it was expected that Pakatan
would have enough support to win parliamentary seats that have substantial
Indian populations.

Although groups such as MCA have expressed puzzlement over the Chinese
community’s support for Mahathir, they admit that Pakatan Harapan with
Mahathir at its helm does still enjoy support among Chinese voters. This
observation has been echoed by Mahathir himself, who expressed confidence in
Chinese voters supporting Pakatan even if he is leading the coalition.

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“I think the Chinese will support us… when I meet Chinese, they are friendly.
They are even friendlier to me now than when I was the Prime Minister.” – Tun
Dr Mahathir, as quoted in the Malaysian Chinese News.

“Haha, remember that time you locked me up for 18 months under Operation
Lalang? Good times.” Image from Utusan.

Chief reasons behind Chinese voters preferring Pakatan over BN are economic
factors such as the weak ringgitand rising cost of living. Additionally, things
like government mismanagement, corruption, and the perception of MCA as a
proxy of UMNO meant that Chinese voters overwhelmingly prefer Pakatan over
BN. Not to mention, after the recent spat between UMNO and Malaysia’s
richest man, Robert Kuok, many think that Chinese voters would have
been driven even further from voting BN.

6. PAS could be a thing of the past

In most analyses of the upcoming electoral contests, PAS consistently comes out
as the biggest loser in three-cornered fights with Pakatan and BN. Invoke for
example predicted that PAS will lose every single parliamentary and state
seat they currently have, with Kelantan and Terengganu going to BN. Although
less pessimistic (or should we say… PASimistic �), another study similarly
estimated that PAS would lose most of its seats and that PAS president Hadi
Awang would be one of the casualties.

We wonder if he feels… torn about this.

Among the chief reasons behind PAS becoming the biggest loser instead of
Pakatan is their lack of support among non-Malays who only voted for
them while they were part of the opposition. Since then, other issues such
as their poor handling of flood relief efforts, clean water supply, or waste
management, as well as policies with logging and the orang asli have further
decreased their support among voters.

On top of that, recent suspicions that PAS may be working with UMNO have
started to shake the confidence of PAS grassroots in their party leaders, since
such a thing would be seen as a betrayal. But now that we’ve talked about
Pakatan’s strengths AND obstacles, the number one reason that GE14 will see
Pakatan forming the new government is…

7. Pakatan IS the only real alternative to BN

Inilaaah barisan kita… Image from Pakatan Harapan’s FB.

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All things considered, Pakatan looks willing to take the majority from BN for the
first time in history. The combination of economic and political crises with
unresolved issues of transparency and corruption under BN serve to make
the next GE the best time for a change of government. And with some seeing the
current Pakatan coalition as the strongest the opposition has ever been, it looks
like it just might happen.

“This time, the unity (of Pakatan Harapan) is better… It is not 100% perfect, but it
is better than Pakatan Rakyat. I am confident this time we can defeat BN.” – Dr
Mahathir, as quoted by The Malaysian Insight.

As a coalition, Pakatan has arguably built itself a track record running the state
gomens of Penang and Selangor to show that they are able to govern when put
to the task. That, combined with their manifesto promises which include (slightly
populist) promises to abolish the GST and delay PTPTN loan repayments, as
well as institutional reforms such as term limits and reducing powers of the PM,
indicate that they have their own plans for the country.

It’s not all bad news for BN though, as one term as government in waiting could
resolve alot of their current issues. After all, while it is likely that Pakatan will be
making some huge changes to the direction Malaysia is heading in, their
successes are only possible due to how far BN has gotten us in our sixty one-
year history together.

– https://cilisos.my/7-