Actionable Intelligence Briefing

4-11 May 2009

TARGETED ACTIONABLE MONITORING CENTER
Red Flag Dates Threat Matrix Contributing Factors New Threats, Targets and TTPs Domestic/Eco-Terror Alerts Strategic Analysis

Red Flag Dates
Current-13 May - India: Five-phase staggered general elections 4-15 May - USA: Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty countries meet to prepare for key 2010 conference (New York) 4 May - UK: May Day 4 May - Czech Republic: EU-Japan summit in Prague 5 May - Germany: Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso to visit Berlin 5 May - Europe: Europe Day and 60th anniversary of the Council of Europe 5 May - Spain: Socialist Party leader Patxi Lopez to be sworn in as prime minister of Spanish Basque region 5 May - Mexico: Cinco de Mayo 5 May - Albania: Martyrs' Day 5 May - Denmark: Liberation Day 5 May - Ethiopia: Liberation Day 5 May - Netherlands: Liberation Day 6 May - Syria/Lebanon: Martyrs' Day celebrated 6 May - Brazil: Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits 6 May - Germany: Jordan's King Abdullah to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin 6 May - Belgium: Brussels Palestinian National Football Team plays first game in Europe 6-7 May - Czech Republic: Senate's decision on EU reform treaty 6 May-1 June - Georgia: NATO military exercises 7 May - Czech Republic: European Union's Eastern Partnership summit in Prague 8 May - Czech Republic: EU's Southern Corridor summit in Prague 8 May - Czech Republic: New caretaker government to be appointed 8-15 May - Middle East: Pope Benedict XVI to visit the region (Jordan, Israel, Palestinian Authority)

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9 May - Germany: Anti-Islamization conference in Cologne 10 May - Germany: Afghan President Hamid Karzai to visit 11 May - Israel: UN experts to visit and to investigate environmental damage left by the recent Israeli offensive in Gaza 11 May - Laos: Independence Day 12 May - Egypt: Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Egyptian President Hosny Mubarak to hold talks in Sharm el-Sheikh 13-24 May - France: Cannes Film Festival

Threat Matrix Contributing Factors
Capture of Iraqi jihadist insurgency leader al-Baghdadi confirmed by Iraqi government First trial of native German jihadist cell underway in Dusseldorf; heavy security in the region Tamil Tigers vow to continue fighting against lengthy Sri Lankan counter-terror campaign; battles continued at sea MEND threatens "civil war" in Nigeria Delta region; targets oil producers for attacks Arrests of dozens of people charged with operating a Hizbullah cell in Egypt Arrests of AQ cell members in UK; more suspects still at large Somali piracy spreads out from Somali waters as endangered nations' navies patrol the region; pirates declare "war" on Americans after successful rescue mission Basque regions: Terror increasing as Basque Y progresses; French uncover ETA bomb factory P.O. Box 56555 Philadelphia, PA 19111 P.O. Box 18356 Jerusalem 91182, Israel 215.922.1080 www.terrorresponse.org Indian legislative elections continue as Communist, separatist violence escalates American airstrikes against Taliban-jihadist targets in Pakistan's northern tribal regions; threats by Taliban to strike US New Israeli government ratcheting up warnings over Iranian nuclear weapons program 2

Global Anarchist unrest and propaganda efforts continuing; led by Greek anti-authoritarians Heightened threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula; Yemen key target North African states combating AQIM activity Coptic-Muslim tensions, violence and jihad-inspired attacks on foreigners increasing in Egypt Jihadist success in Somalia; capture of most major cities Sub-Saharan Africa: Islamic radicalization on the continent Ongoing: New US administration in the White House Ongoing: Hizbullah seeking revenge for Mughniyeh assassination. Ongoing: worldwide targeting of maritime venues Ongoing: worldwide targeting of mass transit; electronic, physical targeting of national infrastructure grids

New Threats, Targets and TTPs
JIHADIST GUIDEBOOK: HOW TO POISON A WATER SUPPLY Jihadist communications uncovered by TAM-C analysts include efforts to collate and share information and intelligence useful for various attacks on Western targets. Similar to the idea behind the "Osama College of Jihad", which TAM-C revealed in late April, a 28 April 2009 jihadist communication is entitled "A Complete Terrorist Ideabook", and calls to generate "a guidebook for every brother who wants to carry out this or any other mission." The purpose of the message was to elicit responses that would provide intelligence and instructions to be used by jihadists in planning specific attacks on Western targets, as well as new ideas for attacks. The very first potential attack tactic for which the jihadists request relevant information is "poisoning reservoirs or water pipelines in the lands of the infidels." Specifically, the communication requested information on poisonous substances such as: their potency and effectiveness; how long it takes them to kill; their cost; and where they can be obtained.

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In response to the request, jihadists provided, among other things, an encyclopedia of poisons and methods to prepare them, including detailed video instructions. In addition, another response included some useful maps for targeting. Some responses pointed out the danger to Muslims living in the lands where such a mass poisoning operation may be executed. Others replied that Islamic law would not condemn such "collateral damage" among Muslims if the action served the purpose of jihad. TAM-C analysts link this "guidebook" idea to a February 2009 video from Al-Jazeera TV that has been disseminated widely on video sharing websites, including non-Islamic outlets such as LiveLeak and Youtube, in which a Kuwaiti professor explains that a few cases of anthrax would be enough to kill 330,000 Americans within an hour. The professor, Abdullah Nafisi, also mentions the option of bombing the Lake Michigan nuclear plant and the White House. In addition, TAM-C analysts note, recent al-Qaeda recordings have made a point of noting that a small quantity of dioxin could successfully poison the water supply of New York City. The efforts to obtain practical information also dovetails with recent communications, also uncovered and released by TAM-C last month, in which detailed strategic nuclear and military maps of various nations were shared among the jihadists. The maps were presented alongside calls to strike the named and identified facilities. ******ACTION****** In the view of TAM-C analysts, this ongoing exchange of information appears to be earnest and authentic. It has drawn an intense response from jihadists and is being treated with the utmost seriousness among them. It is therefore reasonable, TAM-C concludes, to assume that the ideas raised or some part of them will ultimately be acted upon within a Western state. As a cautionary response to the developments in intelligence sharing among jihadists, and related motivational releases from al-Qaedaaffiliated cells, TAM-C has issued general guidance to all clients to increase security in the immediate period. Specific guidance focuses on the water infrastructure of Western nations, particularly the United States. TAM-C's current recommendation is to increase awareness of potential pre-operational surveillance or probing by adversarial elements at water facilities, as well as hardening soft assets within national and local water infrastructure systems. Enhanced reporting from water utility field personnel should be included in the security preparations. 4

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TARGETING TOURISM AND FOREIGN WORKERS Recent al-Qaeda communications intercepted by TAM-C researchers include tactical advice for jihadists operating in North African countries frequented by tourists. Specifically under threat are Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt. The exposed communication states, "We must warn these countries that they are accomplices of the US against Islam and we will kill tourists that come to [those] lands." Noting that the economies of these countries will be disrupted by damage to the tourist sector, the tactical advice provides specific guidance on the targeting of innocent tourists. In addition to targeting the tourists themselves for direct attack, guidance is provided by the terrorists for targeting of tourist-related sites, including gift shops. The communication further states, "You are not mandated only to kill the tourist, but it may even be easier to target the employee [of tourist-related facilities] because he [the employee] is a foreign worker. ...If you know of a foreign employee working in the country... follow him for a period of time, and kill him at an exploitable point in relation to time and location. Do not leave tracks. Do not leave evidence." ******ACTION****** The potential for lone-wolf attack against tourist and tourist sites, specifically in North Africa, is at an increased level. TAM-C analysts recommend that facilities catering to tourists immediately increase awareness of pre-operational surveillance. Any relevant information should be communicated to security services without delay. UNITED KINGDOM TARGETED In the wake of an al-Qaeda ultimatum to execute a British hostage if Abu Qatada al-Filistini is not released from a British prison, TAM-C researchers have intercepted additional jihadist communications proposing a series of attacks on British interests. In the communication, jihadists discussed the belief that such attacks will push the British people to pressure their government to release the prisoner. He suggests that the ultimatum has not been effective, but that pressure on the people will have more positive results. The jihadist explains that "the British do not have the will and patience" and that "such threats and actions will send the British into the streets against the government." The idea presented includes presenting the British with a warning that AQ is planning to carry out a series of terrorist attacks within a given time period if Abu Qatada is not released. "In this way, the mujahideen take the entire English people hostage!" the communication declares triumphantly. Continued on next page. 5

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Furthermore, on the tactical front, the jihadist communication says that effective OpSec would be critical to the success of such attacks. "The British security forces are already monitoring and surveilling [Muslim] actions," the propagandist warns, explicit threats will only increase their alertness. For that reason, it is recommended to jihadists intending to take action in England that they do not expend too much time in pre-operational intelligence gathering. Rather, the individual sent to carry out the attack would do best to execute the plan the same day he arrives in England. If more intel is needed, the communication says, then a second person can carry out the preoperational activities and the actual attacker will need only collect the explosives and head for the heavily populated, predesignated target. TAM-C analysts note that the communications suggested multiple attacks because the jihadists recognize that some of them may be unsuccessful due to British anti-terror measures. ******ACTION****** TAM-C analysts expect a stepped-up level of al-Qaeda of the Islamic Magrehb (AQIM) and lone-wolf activity in the short term. TAM-C analysts further believe that, because of their concern about "British security forces," the suggestion for attacks against British interests extends beyond North Africa, where AQIM is said to be holding the British captive, and into England. Organizations identified as British, or being closely associated with the British, are at enhanced risk of terror activity at this time. TAM-C analysts strongly suggest security personnel be on a heightened state of alert for pre-operational probing and surveillance activity. AMERICAN ASSETS IN YEMEN TARGETED TAM-C analysts note an increased threat to American assets in Yemen at this time. Arabic-language researchers have identified specific targeting information that has been provided to jihadists by a radical website in Yemen. The targeting information specifically identifies Americans and American-related assets. According to the website, a Yemeni family lost custody of two children to their American mother when the children were taken to the US embassy in Yemen. The loss of custody was the result of a US court decision. The website states that the Yemeni family has filed a complaint with the Yemeni foreign ministry because the US embassy refuses them admission to see the children. The family has accused the embassy of kidnapping. Continued on next page. 6

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TAM-C analysts believe that the facts of the above custody battle are moot. What is of great concern however, is the fact that radical Islamic sites are criticizing the jihadist community for not attacking the American embassy. The radical Islamic sites further demand wide-spread destruction to American property in the country. ******ACTION****** While the facts of the reported custody battle may or may not be true, the targeting of American assets in Yemen by radical websites cannot be ignored. Discussion of the kidnapping of Muslim women to or by the United States is an effective method of incitement against Americans or Westerners in general. Therefore, there is currently an increased threat in Yemen to American assets and Westerners who are (or may be mistaken for) Americans. Westerners entering Yemen should maintain communications with their embassies. TALIBAN PLANS A RETURN TO ISLAMABAD The Southeast Asia desk of the TAM-C has intercepted communications from Taliban sources that their retreat from Buner, Pakistan, was not a retreat, but was, in fact, a deception. The intercepted communication indicates that the "retreat" was tactical in nature. The Taliban, according to the jihadist claims, left their fighting force on the ground amongst the citizens of Buner in the Mardan area. The communication states that the Taliban is planning a surprise blitz to conquer the Mardan region, a critical area of Northwest Pakistan and close to Islamabad. Pakistani security forces, meanwhile, say that their latest offensive in the region, launched 28 April 2009, is intended "to eliminate and expel militants from Buner." Overall, attacks in Pakistan more than doubled between 2007 and 2008 to about 1,800. ******ACTION****** If nothing is done to combat the aforementioned Taliban tactic, the TAM-C expects to see the control of the Mardan area revert to the Taliban in the short term. International agencies with assets in Islamabad should be preparing for an increase in adversarial pressure on the capital city. NGOs that send employees into the Mardan region should recognize that the potential for kidnapping by Taliban forces has increased. The TAM-C is monitoring activity in an attempt to corroborate the intercept. 7

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AFGHANISTAN: NEW TALIBAN OFFENSIVE In a recent communication from senior Taliban leader Bradar Akhund, the jihadist promises a new offensive for the month of May. Targets will include assets throughout Afghanistan, Akhund says, including foreign forces, embassies, convoys, officials of the current Afghani regime, Afghani legislators and others. Among the foreigners, specifically cited were NATO forces operating in Afghanistan. The self-branded "mullah" also warned civilians to stay away from the listed people and places, because they could be targeted at any time, anywhere. Tactics mentioned by Akhund included ambushes, armed assaults, explosions, suicide bombings and other such terrorist surprise attacks. ******ACTION****** As Afghanistan is a known war zone, precautions relevant for such a situation are still appropriate in most major cities. Force protection measures should focus on identification and interdiction of Taliban assault cells, as well as lone suicide bombers. In addition, TAM-C analysts recommend specific increased awareness around high-visibility fixed assets of the aforementioned targets. This includes promoting increased awareness of pre-operational surveillance by adversarial elements, as well as enhanced communication for accountability purposes. MARITIME TACTIC IN NIGERIA A Nigerian security services gunboat was attacked on 29 April 2009 by gunmen in five speedboats. The attackers opened fire on the Joint Task Force (JTF) officers in Bonny Local Government Area in Rivers State. The attackers were not identified, but local insurgent militias had already declared "war" on oil producers in the Delta region of Nigeria earlier in the year. Two JTF men were wounded in the attack, although security sources said the attackers fled after suffering "heavy casualties". The JTF was deployed to ensure security and economic development in that region of Nigeria. P.O. Box 56555 Philadelphia, PA 19111 P.O. Box 18356 Jerusalem 91182, Israel 215.922.1080 www.terrorresponse.org JTF officials said the attack would not precipitate a large-scale counter-attack on the supposed location of the small number of militants, who hide among innocents in their own communities. Continued on next page.

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Of particular interest is the fact that the asault was a coordinated maritime attack in African waters with no piracy intent. The attackers sought to cause maximum damage and loss of life among the Nigerian JTF with the apparent intent of instilling fear and demoralization, which they seemingly hoped would force the oil industry to see itself as defenseless, to fold to the militants' demands or to leave the Delta region altogether. ******ACTION****** TAM-C analysts recommend that enhanced levels of security surrounding oil facilities and personnel in Nigeria be maintained. MEND, the most well-known militant insurgent group, has attacked platforms, pipelines, installations and oil flow-stations owned by Chevron, Shell and Agip. Additionally, they have been involved in kidnapping oil industry workers. In addition, Nigeria reportedly suffers from the second-highest rate of piracy in its territorial waters, after Somalia. Defensive measures should include increased situational awareness, tighter marine security procedures, as well as enhanced communication links for accountability among personnel in light of past kidnappings.

POSSIBLE MASS TRANSIT ATTACK TACTIC The 29 April 2009 crash of a speeding electric suburban commuter train into a goods train in Tamil Nadu state, India, which killed four people, is being investigated as a possible terrorist attack. However, as of this writing, there has been no claims of responsibility and police are having difficulty identifying the man they say drove the train, jumped out at the last minute and died of injuries sustained in the crash. Directions of investigation being explored thus far reflect the multiple threats India faces at this time: 1. Communist terrorists: There have been a string of attacks on trains an railway stations in recent months pepetrated by Communist terror cells. They have been attempting to disrupt national elections, which are ongoing at this time. On the other hand, a single-man attack that was essentially a suicide mission has not been the modus operandi of these Communist groups. Such groups also generally purposefully leave some indication of their part in attacks.

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2. Jihadist cells: The apparent attempt to cause great damage and many deaths, without regard for the death of the perpetrator himself, is a hallmark of recent dramatic jihadist attacks. In addition, there were intelligence warnings that jihadists were seeking to hit India's mass transit at this time. However, it is expected that some Islamist group would have already taken credit for the attack. 3. Tamil Tigers or an affiliated group: There was some intelligence warning of possible attacks by Tamil Tigers or their sympathizers targeting rail assets in India. The attack took place in a majorityTamil area, which may indicate easy access for Tigers terrorists; yet, the victims are also mostly Tamils, which raises the question of how much "collateral damage" among Indian Tamils would be acceptable in such an attack were it perpetrated by the Tamil Tigers. 4. Lone-wolf terrorist: An individual unconnected with an organized terrorist infrastructure may have taken it upon himself to conduct such an attack. His motivation may have been jihad, Communism, regional separatist goals, Anarchism, Tamil freedom in Sri Lanka, or another, more obscure goal. 5. Disgruntled former railway worker: There was apparently some need for specialized knowledge and four seprate keys to operate the train and force it to crash as it did. This possibility does not rule out any other, additional reason for the incident. 6. Vandalism: An act of joy-riding vandalism that may have gotten out of control; yet, the specialized knowledge and planning necessary would seem to point away from this possibility. In reaction to the deadly incident, the Indian Railway Protection Force (RPF) has decided to install CCTV cameras at all suburban railway stations, to train rail personnel to keep an eye out for unauthorised persons entering train engine cars, as well as challenging the rail staff to explain the failure to cut power to the electric train even after it blasted through two red signals. Railway personnel were initially quoted as saying there was insufficient time to do so, although a railway official said they managed to immediately halt all trains heading into the path of the runaway from other lines, thus avoiding a disaster that may have claimed 100 lives. ******ACTION****** P.O. Box 56555 Philadelphia, PA 19111 P.O. Box 18356 Jerusalem 91182, Israel 215.922.1080 www.terrorresponse.org Continued on next page.

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India For some time, TAM-C analysts have cited stepped up terror activities targeting India, specifically major tourist sites, major or high-profile cities, as well as other targets in Assam and Tamil Nadu states; this, is in addition to the ongoing tension and sporadic violence in the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir. Other states vulnerable to Communist or separatist attack include Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand. Recent events confirm the need for security personnel in India to remain vigilant and to maintain a heightened awareness of pre-operational surveillance and probing by all possible adversarial elements. Rail Travel The train hijacking and ramming in India was a success due to a combination of factors, in the view of TAM-C analysts. Among these are: lax or insufficient station security measures and/or presence on the trains themselves; poor security measures and thin-tononexistent law enforcement presence at the non-urban stations; slow reaction to the developing situation by railway personnel. TAM-C analysts further believe that the tactic seen in Tamil Nadu may be copied by other terrorist elements in India or outside of it. To be effective, however, perpetrators would need specialized knowledge, access and the confidence that the targeted rail system personnel would be unable to react in time to prevent the attack's execution in full.

Domestic/Eco-Terror Alerts
Current – 6 May 2009 CONUS: The Rainforest Action Network (RAN) is holding training at campuses across the CONUS. The training is designed to inspire ecological activity – from legitimate canvassing to illegal direct actions. 4 May 2009 Brighton, UK: The aggressive Anarchist group, Wombles, will be holding a May Day protest as part of the Smash EDO / Smash Capitalism program. A critical mass used to disrupt traffic will be part of this protest. P.O. Box 56555 Philadelphia, PA 19111 P.O. Box 18356 Jerusalem 91182, Israel 215.922.1080 www.terrorresponse.org 6 May 2009 London, UK: Anti-war groups are planning to disrupt the BAE Annual General Meeting to be held in London at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre. 6 May 2009 London, UK: Ecological activists will be disrupting the 100th anniversary celebration of BP that is being held at the British Museum.

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6 May 2009 San Francisco, Phoenix, Tucson, and Sonora, Mexico: Ecological activists will be protesting the intent of Mexico to build a hazardous waste dump on land belonging to the O’odham Indians. The San Francisco protest will be at the Mexican consulate. The other protests will be on Indian Territory. 6 May 2009 San Francisco: Anarchist groups will be drawing attention to the bank bailouts by protesting at the Bank of America and marching to Sen. Feinstein’s Office. 8 May 2009 London, UK: Anti-war activists will be holding a protest and “die-in” as they protest NATO bombings in Afghanistan that have included the deaths of civilians. 9 May 2009 Lewisham, UK: Anarchist groups will be protesting in support of Parents of the children attending Lewisham Bridge Primary School who have occupied the roof in protest of the school’s new administration. 9-10 May 2009 Washington, DC: A group of Baltimore Anarchists will be protesting in front of the White House as part of a Mother's Day for Peace Vigil. This is scheduled to be a 24 hour protest. 14 May 2009 New York City: A protest march will be held by people opposed to the closing of some schools in New York City. The march will conclude with a rally at the NYC Department of Education. 16 May 2009 London, UK: Ecological activists will be holding a “flash mob” at noon at Heathrow Terminal 1 Departures. The activists will attempt to call attention to the planned airport expansion. In addition to the London flash mob, there will be similar flash mobs in Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Brussels, and Dublin. 16 May 2009 Worldwide: Animal Rights activists will be holding their annual international boycott of Procter & Gamble products in protest of the company’s “cruel and gratuitous animal testing for cosmetics and household products.” TAM-C analysts expect vandalism to facilities owned by P & G as well as vandalism to P&G products on store shelves. P.O. Box 56555 Philadelphia, PA 19111 P.O. Box 18356 Jerusalem 91182, Israel 215.922.1080 www.terrorresponse.org 17 May 2009 New York City: Pro-Palestinian activists will be holding a March/Rally as part of Al Nakba (The Catastrophe). Al Nakba is Israel’s creation. There is a potential for conflict between pre-Israeli – pro-Palestinian groups. 19 May 2009 The Hague and London: Environmental activists will be disrupting the Shell Petroleum annual shareholders’ meeting at The Hague and the satellite downlink at Barbican Centre in London.

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Pipestem, WV: Earth First! eco-activists will 17-23 May 2009 be holding Mountain Justice Summer Training Camp at Pipestem State Park in West Virginia. The training at this camp will be aimed toward ending open pit coal mining in WV. 21 – 24 May 2009 Vienna, Austria: Animal Rights activists will be gathering in Vienna for Liberation Days Vienna. They will be discussing and protesting issues of animal liberation issues + repression against political activists, demo against speciesism. 26 May 2009 New York City: Karl Rove is scheduled to speak at Radio City Music Hall. TAM-C researchers are watching as Anarchist groups attempt to gather support for a protest at the site. More information will follow. 27 May 2009 Anti-war activists will be conducting an “act of nonviolent civil disobedience” at the NATO Regional Command, Northwood, “demanding an end to the bombing and the withdrawal of all British troops from Afghanistan”. 29 May - 1 June 2009 Glengad, Ireland: The anti-Shell gas pipeline encampment is gathering at the Rossport Solidarity Camp again this year. The environmental activists will be celebrating what they consider a victory over Shell’s attempts to build a pipeline. 5-14 June 2009 Gaza: The Coalition of Women for Peace, in partnership with the American anti-war group, Code Pink, will be applying Pro-Palestinian pressure on Israel as they hold protests in Gaza and Jerusalem. 6 June 2009 Washington, DC: Pro-Palestinian groups will be holding an End the Siege of Gaza! March on Washington protest and march beginning at 14th & Pennsylvania Ave. NW. It is a “Solidarity Day on the 42nd Anniversary” of Israel’s successful conclusion of the 6 Day War. 6-7 June 2009 London, UK: The Anarchist Movement Conference 2009 will take place at Queen Mary & Westfield College. This conference is an attempt to achieve greater unity in the International Anarchist movement. 11-14 Jun2 2009 Glasgow, Scotland: Environmental activists will be gathering in Glasgow to discuss “consolidating our collective power and resources as grassroots groups tackling climate change.” TAM-C analysts note that much of the time will be spent discussing social change. However, direct action taken against the power industry should be anticipated.

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Strategic Analysis
TARGETING GERMAN SPEAKERS A recent jihadist communication noted by TAM-C Arabic-language researchers included several links to German-language videos from Afghan jihadists. The armed men, in some cases with concealed faces, appeared to be native German speakers. The videos were standard jihadist fare - mixed Koranic exhortations, incitement and threats. However, the focus here was on Germany as an infidel aggressor against Muslims. Unlike most motivational jihadist videos in Arabic, the German videos were posted on the open video sharing website Youtube, and under English titles. The use of Youtube and German presenters in the jihadist videos cited has two main goals, according to TAM-C analysts following the viral spread of such clips. The first goal is recruitment - to encourage German-speaking Muslims to join the global jihad. This is directed at second- or thirdgeneration Turkish Germans, or converts to Islam from among White European Germans. German converts to Islam have already been involved in terrorism in Iraq and in Germany itself in recent years, so this appeal is not unexpected. The second goal is psychological warfare against non-Muslim German-speakers. There is a certain demoralization inherent in a threat issued by a native German-speaker, in German and to Germans. It indicates that the enemy is already winning converts to his side, thus weakening the resolve of Germans. It also gives the impression of a worldwide, borderless movement - which al-Qaeda is, for instance but it also can give a false, inflated impression of the group's size. A native German jihadist can also amplify any threat issued by his organization. His very existence implies that it is possible that a potential future perpetrator lives among the target population already, undetected, and able to strike anywhere. On a simpler level, a message in native-sounding German will be listened to by Germans in a way that a video in Arabic or another language with subtitles would not be. Thus more effectively conveying the threat implied in such jihadist videos.

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Finally, such videos can also be used to influence the discussion in the German-speaking countries to focus on issues the jihadists choose to emphasize. However, in practice, according to ITRR's ground truth indicators, the issue of the German-born jihadists quickly faded from the general public awareness almost as suddenly as it came. Videos such as the recent releases in German have appeared in English, Russian and other languages as well. And the two complementary purposes for creating them are the same, although in some cases the recruitment aspect is more prominent and in others, the psy-ops element.

-END-CLASSIFIED-TAM-CFor additional information, please contact the TAM-C of the Institute of Terrorism Research and Response at: +1.215.922.1080 or info@terrorresponse.org Working with organizations that refuse to surrender their domestic or international operations to terrorism

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Ensure that you always receive the latest information from The Institute of Terrorism Research and Response. Add the e-mail address, "tamc@terrorresponse.org" to your personal address book. This Intelligence report includes information from open and closed intelligence sources. Not all information is able to be verified; however, the TAM-C is actively evaluating the reporting to establish its accuracy and to determine if it represents a possible link to terrorism. If recipients have any additional or clarifying information, please contact the Targeted Actionable Monitoring Center (TAM-C) at +1.215.922.1080. Actionable Intelligence Weekly Briefing® A general overview of actionable intelligence (upcoming events) used by directors of security and law enforcement managers to pre-plan their future operations. The Briefing is dispatched on Monday of each week by 1100 GMT to enable early planning of the upcoming weeks. Threat and Hazard Monitoring (THM) A custom service meeting the needs for each client. With the assistance of our international analysts, this service identifies specific threats, hazards, vulnerabilities, and assets our team of native language speakers researchers and ground resources, are to monitor and forward on to the client. For additional information regarding the Center's services or specialized customized research and analysis programs, feel free to contact us at: tamc@terrorresponse.org

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