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One Sample Runs Test

Milind Gokhale
Nilesh Kataria
Kiran Itagi
Pratik Sharma
Rohit Murari

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Agenda
• Purpose of test and terminology
• Understanding Basic
• Formulae
• Problem
• Problem Analysis
• Requirements for One sample runs test
• Advantages
• Other applications

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Purpose of the test and Terminology
• Quite often in research we may be interested
in finding out whether the sample is drawn at
random, so that we can generalise the sample
results to the population
• we can apply the technique called ‘Runs test’,
which is exclusively used for the purpose of
ensuring the randomness of parameters of
interest
• “Run” is defined as a ‘series of like items‘.

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Understanding
• For example, flipping a coin 10 times might have resulted in obtaining either head
(H) or tail (T) in each throw as follows
HH TT HHHH T H
1 2 3 4 5
Total Runs = 5

• If the number of samples is very small or Very large then this would indicate a non-
random pattern. For example, consider again a throw of a coin for 10 times.
HHHH TTTT
1 2
Total Runs = 2

H T H T H T H T H T
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total Runs = 10

• This shows that there is a perceivable pattern in the sample. (Due to non random-
Influence)
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Formulae
• µr = (2n1n2 / n1+n2) +1

PROBLEM
 H= Healthy Tree D= Diseased Tree
HH DD HHHH DDD HHHH DDDDD HHHHHHHHH
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Total Runs = 7

 H0 = The trees are planted/placed randomly


 Ha = Diseased trees come in non-random grouping
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Problem Analysis
• µr = 14.33
• σr = 2.38
• 1% significance
• Z value for 0.495
= 2.58
• Upper limit =
µr + (2.58 * 2.38)
= 20.47
• Lower limit =
µr – (2.58 * 2.38)
= 8.19

R=7 in CR. So Reject Ho; Accept Ha.


There is strong indication that diseased trees come in non-random grouping. 6
Requirements
• This checks for randomness of the sample
selected.
• It is highly useful in checking the randomness of
residuals in regression or time series and
forecasting models.
ADVANTAGES
 This test checks for randomness of the sample selected.
 It is highly useful in checking the randomness of
residuals in regression or time series and forecasting
models.

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Other Applications
• Thus a runs test is used to test the randomness
dichotomous observations like head/tail, yes/no,
men/women, married/single, high/low,
increasing/decreasing

• Possibly in stock market technical analyses or


Forecasting and Analyses.

• In time series analyses finding out whether the errors


(residuals) of the models are randomly distributed

• finding out the randomness of defective items in the


quality control process
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