An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

Methodology
A Sample of 2400 respondents were interviewed. Fieldwork timings,1st -3rd October 2007
To gauge perception swings after the PNU rally on 30th September

The Sampling frame was designed using PPS; Population Proportionate to Size as is stipulated in the Population Census.
o The sample was defined by area,age,gender o Sampling was carried out using the district as the key administrative boundary. o Every respondent who was 18 years and above given an equal opportunity to participate on condition that they have a voters card or intend to get one in the near future.

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

Methodology
Fieldwork was conducted using purposive random sampling
o This ensured that every person in the selected area had an equal chance of being included in the survey. o 25% of the interviews were back checked for quality control purposes and data entered twice for validation

Data Analysis was done using SPSS 15.0(Minitab Version) All necessary statistical tests were carried out twice;
o Once internal by the Infotrak team o Second check done independently by reputable sampling & statistics expert.

The Data has been verified at 95% degree of confidence.
o The margin of error was minimal at 0.05%

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

Regional split by age
100% 90%

18-24
80%

25-34

35-44

45+

70%

60%

50%

40% 33% 29% 30% 27% 25% 22% 20% 18% 15% 31%

34% 26% 23% 17% 28%

34% 29%

32% 27% 19% 22% 17%

32% 28%

32% 23% 17%

23% 18%

22%

10%

0% Nairobi Coast Western Nyanza Central Eastern Rift Valley

Base 2400

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

Regional split by gender
100% 90% 80% Male 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nairobi Coast Western Nyanza Central Eastern Rift Valley
An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

Female

52% 48%

52% 48%

52% 48%

52% 48%

52% 48%

50% 50%

50% 50%

Base 2400

Are you likely to vote in the next general elections?

Yes

No

No 1%

Yes 99%

Base 2400

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

Voting

30% No

Voters card verified Registered voters

2%Intending

to register

70% Yes

98%

0%

20%

40%

60%
An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

80%

100%

Base 2400

If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president?

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

46% 35%

40% 30%

15%
20% 10% 0% Raila Odinga Mwai Kibaki service Kalonzo Musyoka An Infotrak Harris
October 4th 2007

4%

Undecided

Base 2400

Weekly voting trend
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 15% 16% 4% 4% 46% 46% 35% 34%

w2

w1

w2

w1

w2

w1

w2
Undecided

w1

Raila Odinga

Mwai Kibaki

Kalonzo Musyoka

Base 2400

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president? By gender
Male Female

48%
Undecided

52%

43%
Raila Odinga

57%

49%
Mwai Kibaki

50.30%

51%
Kalonzo Musyoka

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Base 2400

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president? by age group
100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

Kalonzo Musyoka

Mwai Kibaki

Raila Odinga

Undecided

50% 40% 32% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% 21% 24% 15% 23%

34% 25% 27% 24% 16% 18% 15% 6% 17% 24% 21% 18%

16%

4%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

Above 55

Base 2400

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president? By Province
100%

Kalonzo Musyoka

Mwai Kibaki
85%

Raila Odinga

Undecided
88% 80%

90%

80%

70%

60%

54%

54% 51% 52%

50%

40%

34%

35%

35%

32%

30%

20% 11% 10% 1% 0% Nairobi Coast Eastern Central Rift Valley Western Nyanza 7% 4% 3% 11% 12% 8% 4% 3% 4% 5% 1% 5% 6% 1% 14%

Base 2400

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007

What do you consider to be the single biggest failure of Kibaki’s government?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Corruption Insecurity Unemployment Tribalism Selective development

75% 66% 58% 54% 46%

Base 2400

An Infotrak Harris service October 4th 2007