National Weekly Opinion Survey.

Client: Nation Media Group

Date: October 4, 2007.

Strategic Public Relations & Research; 4th Floor, Titan Centre, Chaka Road. P.O. Box 7201, 00100 Nairobi. Tel.: 2712208, Fax 2712209, e-mail: spr@africaonline.co.ke; info@strategicafrica.com

1.0.0. Introduction. The Nation Media Group (NMG) contracted Strategic Public Relations & Research Limited (SPRR) to conduct a national opinion poll to assess the opinions of Kenyan voters on their voting intentions. The survey, the second in a series of polls being conducted for the group by SPRR over a ten week period covered all the provinces of the country. 2.0.0. Methodology. Survey Area Sample size Sample distribution National 2,404 Proportionate to the registered voters in each of the provinces. The provinces formed the first strata with the districts forming the second strata. Kenyans 18 years and above in both rural and urban areas Questionnaire administered face to face at household level 29th September – October 1st 2007 -+ 1.79

Target Population Instrument Field Dates Margin of Error

2.1.0. Sample Distribution. National Survey- Sample 2404 Registered Sample voters Provincial % Allocation 1161708 8.9 215 2017073 15.5 374 1083873 8.3 199 2.0 49 265830 16.8 401 2190090 3055694 23.4 567 11.0 266 1434102 1835248 14.1 333 13043618 100 2404

Province Nairobi Central Coast N.Eastern Eastern R.Valley Western Nyanza

Province Nairobi Central Coast N. Eastern Eastern R.Valley Western Nyanza

% respondents interviewed 8.9 15.6 8.3 2 16.7 23.6 11.1 13.9

3.0.0. FINDINGS

Location of Interview Rural Urban Gender of respondents Male Female Age Groups 18-24 25-39 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+ Religion Christian Muslim Budhist/Hindu Traditional No response Level of education No formal education Primary school education Secondary school education Post secondary education University education Post graduate education 83 14 .6 1.2 1.2 6.6 25 39 21.5 7.5 .4 28.6 19.7 13.6 10.1 8.2 7.8 4.2 4.6 2.9 49.3 50.7 63.1% 36.9%

4.0.0. Registration to vote

All the respondents interviewed are registered voters. 5.0.0. If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president. 49.6% of Kenyans would vote in Raila Odinga as president if elections were held today. President Kibaki comes in second with 39.6% and Kalonzo Musyoka is third with 10.8% of the votes.
If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Series1 Kalonzo Musyoka 10.8 Mwai Kibaki 39.6 Raila Odinga 49.6

5.0.1. Who would you vote for as President if elections were held today – Provincial Analysis. Raila Odinga leads in all but two provinces, Central and Eastern where he comes second to Kibaki in the polls. Raila has most of his support in Nyanza where 85.6% of the voters prefer him. Kibaki on the other hand draws most of his support from Central province where he has 91.4% of the votes. Kalonzo’s support is mainly in Eastern Province with 37.4% of the support. He however comes second to Kibaki in Eastern.

Who would you vote for as president if elections were held today- analysis by province

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga

Nairobi 14 27.4 58.6

Central 2.1 91.4 6.4

Coast 6.5 30.2 63.3

N. Eastern 6.1 30.2 63.3

Eastern 37.4 53.6 8.7

R.Valley 6.2 29.3 64.6

Western 3.4 20.7 75.9

Nyanza 3.3 11.1 85.6

5.0.2. Who would you vote for as president if elections were held today – Analysis by gender.
Who would you vote for - Analysis by gender

53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 Male Female

Kalonzo Musyoka 47.1 52.9

Mwai Kibaki 48.3 51.7

Raila Odinga 50.6 49.4

5.0.3.

Who would you vote for as president if elections were held today – Analysis by education.
Who would you vote for - Analysis by level of education
60

50

40

30

20

10

0

No formal education 14.6 44.3 41.1

Prim ary s chool education 10.6 42.8 46.6

Pos t-s econdary education 10.3 37 52.7

Univers ity education 10.8 37.8 51.2

Post-graduate education 44.4 44.4 11.1

Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga

5.0.4. Who would you vote for as president if elections were held today – Analysis by age.

Raila Odinga draws most of his support from the younger population especially those between 18 -34. Those in the higher age group have preference for Kibaki.
Who would you vote for - Analysis by age group 60

50

40

30

20

10

0
Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga

18-24 12.4 38.1 49.3

25-39 10.8 36.9 52.3

30-34 9.5 38 52.5

35-39 10.7 42.6 46.7

40-44 7.1 41.9 51

45-49 10.7 37.4 51.9

50-54 14.9 49.5 35.6

55-59 8.2 40.9 50.9

60+ 11.4 55.7 32.9