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PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV)

NO OLVIDARSE
CAMBIAR EL VALOR
DE "n" EN TODA LA
COLUMNA

m Q (m3/s) = X Q (m3/s) = X y = Ln (X) P(x)=m/(n+1)

1 3029.00 3029 8.016 0.034


2 3437.00 3437 8.142 0.069
3 3794.00 3794 8.241 0.103
4 3851.00 3851 8.256 0.138
5 4360.00 4360 8.380 0.172
6 4474.00 4474 8.406 0.207
7 4672.00 4672 8.449 0.241
8 4757.00 4757 8.467 0.276
9 4813.00 4813 8.479 0.310
10 4870.00 4870 8.491 0.345
11 4870.00 4870 8.491 0.379
12 4898.00 4898 8.497 0.414
13 4898.00 4898 8.497 0.448
14 4983.00 4983 8.514 0.483
15 5153.00 5153 8.547 0.517
16 5219.00 5219 8.560 0.552
17 5719.00 5719 8.652 0.586
18 6229.00 6229 8.737 0.621
19 6456.00 6456 8.773 0.655
20 6597.00 6597 8.794 0.690
21 6654.00 6654 8.803 0.724
22 7399.00 7399 8.909 0.759
23 7645.00 7645 8.942 0.793
24 8126.00 8126 9.003 0.828
25 8155.00 8155 9.006 0.862
26 8551.00 8551 9.054 0.897
27 9231.00 9231 9.130 0.931
28 10165.00 10165 9.227 0.966

Nº=28
media X = 5821.6071

desvacion Sx= 1828.927

varianza S²x= 3344973.95


corf de variacion= 0.31

ln de la media Ln X= 8.669 y

Ln X= 8.624

gamma (�)= 11.119


BETA (B)= 523.575

NO OLVIDARSE
CAMBIAR EL VALOR
DE "n"UNO X UNO EN
TODA LA COLUMNA n
ES EL NUM DE DATOS

α Δo Δo
1.07/
20% 𝑛^(0.
5)
0.2022109931
1.22/
10% 𝑛^(0. 0.2305583285
5)
1.36/
5% 𝑛^(0.
5) 0.2570158416

1.63/
1% 𝑛^(0. 0.3080410455
5)

a) Calcular el caudal Q=? Para T=50 años T=


inciso de exam aplicada

�(𝑸=<�)=𝟏−𝟏/� �(𝑸=<�)=𝟏−𝟏/=
valor de excedencia= 1 - F(z) = 0.1

grado de libertad v=2*gamma v= 22.238

x²= 32

�²=2 �/� x=

b) P (70 < Q < 2 00) = F(8000) - F(3500 de ayudantia

v=2*gamma v= 22.238 = 23.000

PARA: 8000

�²=2 �/� x²= 30.6

PARA: 3500

�²=2 �/� x²= 13.4

F( 8000 )=1 - 0.123 =

F( 3500 )=1 - 0.927 =

P (70 < Q < 2 00) = F(200) - F(70) = 0.877 - 0.073

c) si un vertedero se dimensiona para que pueda evacuar dicha crecida cual sera la probabilid
inciso 2 de aplicada

v= 22.238 = 23.000
gamma= 11.119
beta= 523.575

�²=2 �/� x²= 32


�²=2 �/�

F(z)= 0.02092

F(x)= 1-F(z)= 0.97908

�(𝑸=<�)=𝟏−(𝑭(𝒙))^�

1.0000

P(Q=<q)=
Porque estos caudales son instantaneos, porque son caudales maximos puntuales que se miden en un determinado lu
y fecha; Y son validos solo para esas condiciones.
RNOV KOLMOGOROV) PARA LA LEY GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS O LEY INCOMPLETA

par. forma par. esc


y=ln x - ln x 0 <= Y < 0.5772 0.5772<= Y < 17 gamma β= media /gamma x²=2x/β

0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 11.570


0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 13.129
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 14.493
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 14.710
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 16.655
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 17.090
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 17.847
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 18.171
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 18.385
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 18.603
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 18.603
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 18.710
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 18.710
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 19.035
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 19.684
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 19.936
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 21.846
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 23.794
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 24.661
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 25.200
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 25.418
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 28.263
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 29.203
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 31.040
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 31.151
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 32.664
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 35.261
0.046 11.119 11.124 11.119 523.575 38.829
0.04564

10 frecuencia
𝑭=𝟏/�
𝑸=<�)=𝟏−𝟏/= F(z)= 0.9 Probabilidad de no excedencia u ocurrencia
10
= 23.000

se lee de tablas

8377.205 m³/s

F(z)= 0.12278 para caudal de 8000

se entra a tablas para leer :

F(z)= 0.92687 para caudal de 3500

0.877

0.073

= 0.804 = 80.409 %

cida cual sera la probabilidad que sea destruido por una crecida en los proximos 30 años

T= 10
n= Nº=28

�(𝑧)=1−1/𝑇=
0.9

F(0.90)^n
� 〖 (�(𝑇)) 〗 ^𝑛=
valor de tabla − = =
1 F(0.90)^n 0.9477 94.77%

100.00 %

e se miden en un determinado lugar, tiempo


OMPLETA

v=2*gamma asum F(z)=1-Val de exc Δ= F(z)-P(X) m


GAMA=X/B
22.238 23.0 0.0314 0.0031 5.785223426 1
22.238 23.0 0.0653 0.0036 6.564480988 2
22.238 23.0 0.1095 0.0060 7.246331356 3
22.238 23.0 0.1178 0.0201 7.355198221 4
22.238 23.0 0.2069 0.0345 8.32736023 5
22.238 23.0 0.2300 0.0231 8.54509396 6
22.238 23.0 0.2724 0.0310 8.923263072 7
22.238 23.0 0.2912 0.0154 9.085608397 8
22.238 23.0 0.3039 0.0065 9.192565318 9
22.238 23.0 0.3169 0.0279 9.301432183 10
22.238 23.0 0.3169 0.0624 9.301432183 11
22.238 23.0 0.3233 0.0904 9.354910643 12
22.238 23.0 0.3233 0.1249 9.354910643 13
22.238 23.0 0.3431 0.1397 9.517255969 14
22.238 23.0 0.3830 0.1342 9.84194662 15
22.238 23.0 0.3987 0.1531 9.96800299 16
22.238 23.0 0.5164 0.0698 10.92297549 17
22.238 23.0 0.6284 0.0077 11.89704745 18
22.238 23.0 0.6737 0.0186 12.33060496 19
22.238 23.0 0.7002 0.0105 12.59990721 20
22.238 23.0 0.7105 0.0136 12.70877408 21
22.238 23.0 0.8240 0.0654 14.13168311 22
22.238 23.0 0.8530 0.0599 14.60152958 23
22.238 23.0 0.8988 0.0712 15.52021313 24
22.238 23.0 0.9011 0.0391 15.57560153 25
22.238 23.0 0.9287 0.0322 16.33193975 26
22.238 23.0 0.9609 0.0298 17.63070236 27
22.238 23.0 0.9840 0.0185 19.41459099 28
Δmax= 0.1531
Δo= 0.2570
Δmax <= Δo LOS DATOS SE AJUSTAN AL MODELO ELEGIDO

a) la probablidad de que un caudal anual sea menor o igual que 8500 m3/s

�(𝑸=<�)=𝑭(𝒛) 8500

�²=2 �/�
�²=2 �/�

�²= 32.46907

ν 22.237899

F(z) 0.9256 esta ya es la probablidad


Q (m3/s) = X P(x)=m/(n+1) x²=2x/β GAMA=X/B F(z)=1-Val de exc Δ= F(z)-P(X)
AL MODELO ELEGIDO

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