Vietnam’s Approach to Asia-Pacific S A i P ifi Security it

Professor Carlyle A Thayer P f C l l A. Th Presentation to Security & Strategic Studies B Strategic & Defence Studies Centre The Australian National University August 31 2010 31,

Changing World Vi Ch i W ld Views
Antagonistic contradictions between socialism and capitalism ‘who will triumph over whom’/friends and enemies Member of socialist camp led by USSR Global integration equals assimilation

Changing World Vi Ch i W ld Views
Multi-directional foreign policy (1991) M l i di i lf i li Four dangers (1994) ‘friend and reliable partner with all countries in the world’ (2001) i i h ld’ Interdependent world/integration Comprehensive security

Key Questions
1. How is Vietnam responding to the rise of China? 2. Why is Vietnam recalibrating its relations with the United States? 3. 3 What is Vietnam’s strategic significance Vietnam s as the Asian century unfolds?

Vietnam and Rising China g
Mature Asymmery
•Acknowledge A k l d ment of China pre-eminence •Acknowledge ment of Vietnam’s autonomy

Viet Nam

Asymmetric Relations

Vietnam s Vietnam’s 3 Strategies
Relegate contentious issues to  technical working groups

Promote multilateral efforts

Self‐help – develop defence capacity

Long‐term  Agreements

Defence ties

Joint Steering  Committee

Economic  relations

High‐level  party visits party visits

High‐level  High level state visits

Bilateral Issues

Defence White Paper 2009 D f Whit P
Southeast Asia: ‘basically stable security S h A i ‘b i ll bl i situation’ Potential risks of conflict still remain Territorial disputes over land and sea T i i l di l d d have been more complicated, in particular those relating to sovereignty i l h l i i and national interests in the East Sea have been on the rise’ h b h i ’

Maritime Strategy Towards the Year 2020 T d th Y

$11 billion  deficit  with China with China

Economic  and Trade  Relations
$9 billion $9 billion  surplus  with the  US

Balancing, Engagement, Hedging O i H d i or Omni-enmeshment? h t?
President Nguyen Minh Triet in Beijing j g May 2007

President Nguyen Minh Triet in Washington June 2007

Recalibration of Relations

Defence R l ti D f Relations
• Exchanges of Defence Ministers
2000, 2000 2003 (turning point) 2006 and 2009 point),

• Political, Security and Defense Dialogue (2008)
• State & Foreign Affairs S F i Aff i

• Defense Policy Dialogue (August 2010) • Deputy Assistant Secretary-Vice Minister

USS JohnD. Stennis JohnD April 2009

US Nuclear submarine Pacific Command December 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010

USS George Washington Aug 2010

1st Joint N J Naval Engagement g g Activities (Aug 2010)

15th Anniversary of US-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations USS John S McCain makes port call Da Nang S.

Three No’s Th N ’
1. No military alliances 2. No foreign military bases on Vietnamese territory 3. No use of third countries to combat another country

Vietnam’s Strategic Significance g g
1. 1 South China Sea littoral state 2. Emerging middle income country g g y 3. Gradual defence modernisation 4. Key player in ASEAN 5. 5 Key player in regional architecture 6. Potential strategic p g partner of US

ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus 8
China Russia USA

A t li Australia

ASEAN

New Zealand

South Korea India

Japan

Plus USA & Russia

Vietnam’s Approach to Asia-Pacific S A i P ifi Security it
Professor Carlyle A Thayer P f C l l A. Th Presentation to Security & Strategic Studies B Strategic & Defence Studies Centre The Australian National University August 31 2010 31,

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