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OKLAHOMA SURVEY OF
LIKELY 2018 REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY VOTERS
April 18th – 19th and 15th, 2018
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 2

Methodology
Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 644n
autodial survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in the state
of Oklahoma.

Ø The interviews were conducted from April 18th, 19th and 22nd, 2018.

Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.86% at the 95%
confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of
error than the overall population.

Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past voter turnout
demographics for a Republican primary election in Oklahoma.

Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and


Courtney Sievers was the project director.
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 3

Survey Demographics
45%
48%
52%

24%
14%
7% 10%

Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

34%
31%
20%
15%

Evangelical, Trump Republican "Traditional" Unsure or No


Christian Republican Opinion
Conservative
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 4

Survey Demographics

76%

11% 6% 5% 1% 1%
Married Widowed Separated or Single, Never Single, Living with No Opinion
Divorced Been Married Partner
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 5

Congressional Districts

KAY OTTAWA
HARPER WOODS GRANT NOWATA
CIMARRON TEXAS BEAVER ALFALFA CRAIG
WASHINGTON
OSAGE

WOODWARD NOBLE
GARFIELD ROGERS
MAJOR PAWNEE MAYES
ELLIS
PAYNE
1 DELAWARE

TULSA
DEWEY
KINGFISHER LOGAN WAGONER CHEROKEE
BLAINE CREEK ADAIR

ROGER MILLS
3 LINCOLN
CUSTER OKMULGEE MUSKOGEE
CANADIAN OKLAHOMA OKFUSKEE SEQUOYAH
MCINTOSH
BECKHAM WASHITA
CADDO POTTAWATOMIE
CLEVELAND 5 SEMINOLE HASKELL

GRADY MCCLAIN HUGHES


LATIMER
GREER KIOWA PITTSBURG LE FLORE
2
HARMON
JACKSON
COMANCHE 4 GARVIN PONTOTOC
COAL
STEPHENS MURRAY
TILLMAN PUSHMATAHA
ATOKA
JOHNSTON
COTTON

Legend JEFFERSON
CARTER

MARSHALL CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN
LOVE BRYAN

Congressional District

µ
CD 1
CD 2
CD 3
CD 4
CD 5

Oklahoma Regions - By Congressional District


6

VOTER ISSUE PREFERENCE


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 7

In your own words, being as descriptive as possible, please tell me what


you think the most important issues and problems are that the
Republican candidates for Governor should be addressing the most.
“Figure out the states “Oklahoma needs a full
Major Themes audit and investigation
budget problems. They
have had budget problems Budget Problems–Audit Govt. Agencies into every agency from
for years and it needs to be the top down on where
addressed.” Education – Paying Teachers – our tax money is going,
- Female, 45-54, Evangelical Consolidating School Districts who is spending it, the
waste, the corruption
Jobs and fix it. And stop
High Taxes raising taxes every time
“Economy and education.” the wind blows up their
- Male, 55-64, Traditional
skirt. ”
-Female, 55-64,
“Teacher pay raise. More funding for
Evangelical
“Raising teachers pay.” schools in OK.”
-Male, 55-64, Trump Rep - Female, 65+, Evangelical

“Leadership in the
“Should address the bureaucracy. Have
“Taxes are too high. Teachers legislature. The economy
audits of everything and see what we can
pay is too low. Too much and jobs. Education
cut. We should address the union of
corruption.” problems. Healthcare
government employees, it isn't right that
-Female, 65+, Trump Rep problems.”
the union runs our state more than the
- Female, 65+, Traditional
state does. ”
-Male, 45-54, Trump Rep
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 8

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is


the top priority that the Republican candidates for
Governor should be addressing the most?

24%

19%

13%

10% 10% 10%

7%
6%

1%

ADDRESSING IMPROVING CREATE JOBS PROTECTING ENFORCING PROTECT LIFE REDUCING REDUCE OTHER NO
STATE BUDGET PUBLIC GROW 2ND IMMIGRATION RELIGIOUS COST OF ENERGY OPINION
CRISIS SCHOOLS ECONOMY AMENDMENT LAWS LIBERTY HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
REGULATIONS
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 9

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is


the top priority that the Republican candidates for
Governor should be addressing the most?

24% 24% 12% 6% 6% 9% 10% 1% 8%


WOMEN

2%
23% 15% 14% 15% 14% 10% 4% 4%
MEN

ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS


CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT
ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY
REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS
OTHER NO OPINION
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 10

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is


the top priority that the Republican candidates for
Governor should be addressing the most?

23% 9% 11% 19% 16% 4% 7% 2% 9%


TRUMP

17% 17% 14% 8% 11% 21% 9% 3%


EVANGELICAL

1% 2%
33% 31% 14% 7%
TRADITIONAL 4% 5% 3%

ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS


CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT
ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY
REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS
OTHER NO OPINION
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 11

And among the following list of issues, which do you think is


the top priority that the Republican candidates for
Governor should be addressing the most?

65+ 21% 20% 10% 9% 13% 10% 8% 1% 9%

55-64 22% 19% 13% 9% 8% 8% 13% 4% 5%

1%
45-54 27% 25% 13% 17% 5% 8% 1% 2%

35-44 33% 19% 11% 15% 5% 11% 6%

18-34 27% 10% 34% 10% 11% 8%

ADDRESSING STATE BUDGET CRISIS IMPROVING PUBLIC SCHOOLS


CREATE JOBS GROW ECONOMY PROTECTING 2ND AMENDMENT
ENFORCING IMMIGRATION LAWS PROTECT LIFE RELIGIOUS LIBERTY
REDUCING COST OF HEALTHCARE REDUCE ENERGY INDUSTRY REGULATIONS
OTHER NO OPINION
12

GARY RICHARDSON
IMAGE RATING
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 13

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Gary Richardson?

14%
23%
37%
31% 31%
25% 25%
35% 21%
28% 12%
17%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE 39% 37% 36%
HEARD OF NO OPINION 25% 24% 26% 27% 26%
20% 19%
NEVER HEARD OF 11% 11%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 14

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Gary Richardson?
14% 23%

28% 35%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

42% 40% 37% 36%


34% 31%
27% 30% 31%
23% 24% 26%
18% 21% 21%
15% 14% 17%
13%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+


15

TODD LAMB
IMAGE RATING
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 16

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Todd Lamb?

6%
35%
34% 32% 33%
37% 35%
29%
22%

25% 7% 5%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE 41% 39%
37% 35% 36%
HEARD OF NO OPINION 31%
22% 25%
NEVER HEARD OF 16%
6% 4% 7%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 17

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Todd Lamb?
6%
35%
34%
25%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

48%
38% 41%
35% 34% 32% 34% 36%
27% 30%
23% 25% 26% 24% 22%
8% 5% 8%
4%
18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
18

KEVIN STITT
IMAGE RATING
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 19

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Kevin Stitt?

22% 28%
34%
29% 28% 26%
21% 22% 22%
31% 19% 17%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE 33% 33% 33%
29% 30% 31%
HEARD OF NO OPINION 25% 22%
21%
17%
NEVER HEARD OF 13% 12%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 20

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Kevin Stitt?
22% 28%

31% 19%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

52%
48%
32% 31% 32% 31% 33%
25% 27% 27% 25% 25% 22% 22%
18% 15% 14%
10% 10%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+


21

MICK CORNETT
IMAGE RATING
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 22

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Mick Cornett?

17%
33% 32% 33% 33%
21% 25% 23%
19% 19%
16%
29%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE 45%

HEARD OF NO OPINION 28% 32% 30% 29%


23% 21% 24% 24%
NEVER HEARD OF 16% 17%
11%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 23

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Mick Cornett?
17%
33%
21%
29%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

46%
38% 36% 33% 39%
32% 31%
27% 25% 23% 28%
22% 21%
18% 16% 18% 18%
14%
10%
6%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+


24

GARY JONES
IMAGE RATING
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 25

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Gary Jones?

12%
31%
38%
24% 31% 31%
26% 29%
21%
14%
33% 10%

MEN WOMEN

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE 33% 37% 37%
31% 30%
27%
HEARD OF NO OPINION 23% 22%
18% 19%
NEVER HEARD OF 13% 11%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 26

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable


opinion of Gary Jones?
12%
31%
24%

33%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

45% 47%
34% 33% 36%
32% 32% 32% 32%
27% 26%
21% 20%
17% 19% 15%
12% 11%
0% 8%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+


27

DONALD TRUMP
JOB APPROVAL
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 28

Do you approve or disapprove of the job


Donald Trump is doing as President?

6%
14%
83% 78%

80% 12% 15%


5% 7%
MEN WOMEN

APPROVE 98%
90%
DISAPPROVE
56%
UNSURE NO OPINION 39%
5% 5% 5% 2%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 29

Do you approve or disapprove of the job


Donald Trump is doing as President?
14% 6%

80%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

83% 85%
72% 68% 74%

18% 20% 22%


10% 12% 4% 15% 2% 10% 4%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+


30

REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL
JOB APPROVAL
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 31

Do you approve or disapprove of the job


the Republicans in Congress are doing?

16%
26% 65%
52%

25% 27%
21%
58% 10%

MEN WOMEN

APPROVE 58% 58% 56%


DISAPPROVE
32% 29%
UNSURE NO OPINION 22% 19% 15%
10%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 32

Do you approve or disapprove of the job


the Republicans in Congress are doing?
16% 26%

58%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

66% 66%
54% 56% 56%

28% 29% 31% 28%


26%
18% 16%
8% 13%
5%
18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
33

MARY FALLIN
JOB APPROVAL
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 34

Do you approve or disapprove of the job


Mary Fallin is doing as Governor?

17% 20%
66%
60%

24%
63% 16% 16% 18%

MEN WOMEN

APPROVE 69%
59% 58%
DISAPPROVE
UNSURE NO OPINION 22% 22% 19% 21% 21%
9%
TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 35

Do you approve or disapprove of the job


Mary Fallin is doing as Governor?
17% 20%

63%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION

77% 71%
64% 67%
55%

26% 19% 25% 21%


10% 12% 9% 19% 14%
11%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+


36

OKLAHOMA GOVERNOR
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
BALLOT TEST
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 37

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held


today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary
Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and
Dan Fisher?

23%

19% 19%

17%

12%

5% 5%

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 38

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held


today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary
Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and
Dan Fisher?

22% 19% 16% 10% 5% 4% 23%


WOMEN

15% 18% 18% 15% 6% 5% 23%


MEN

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 39

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held


today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary
Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and
Dan Fisher?

17% 24% 14% 16% 2%4% 24%


TRUMP

19% 24% 9% 15% 10% 4% 19%


EVANGELICAL

26% 8% 31% 8% 2% 7% 18%


TRADITIONAL

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 40

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held


today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary
Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and
Dan Fisher?

65+ 17% 20% 22% 10% 4% 3% 24%

55-64 21% 20% 18% 9% 7% 4% 22%

45-54 14% 14% 21% 13% 5% 7% 27%

35-44 23% 17% 26% 14% 20%

18-34 27% 16% 17% 19% 20%

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 41

If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held


today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Gary
Richardson, Todd Lamb, Kevin Stitt, Mick Cornett, Gary Jones and
Dan Fisher?

CD05 20% 8% 32% 8% 10% 8% 14%

CD04 23% 24% 17% 11% 5% 5% 15%

CD03 19% 19% 18% 11% 2% 7% 24%

CD02 22% 15% 6% 14% 7% 2% 33%

CD01 13% 23% 11% 17% 5% 2% 29%

LAMB STITT CORNETT RICHARDSON FISHER JONES UNDECIDED


42

VOTER OPINION ON
TEACHER RAISES
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 43

As you may know, the Oklahoma Governor and state legislature


recently approved a pay increase for public school teachers of about
$6,000 depending on experience. Knowing this, do you support or
oppose the pay increase for Oklahoma public school teachers?

3%
18%
84%
74%

79% 23%
3% 14% 2%

MEN WOMEN

TOTAL SUPPORT 87%


77% 77%
TOTAL OPPOSE
UNSURE NO OPINION 22% 2%
12% 1% 20% 3%

TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 44

As you may know, the Oklahoma Governor and state legislature


recently approved a pay increase for public school teachers of about
$6,000 depending on experience. Knowing this, do you support or
oppose the pay increase for Oklahoma public school teachers?

18% 3%

79%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION

77% 81% 80% 80%


73%

27% 23%
17% 2% 18% 2% 17% 3%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+


Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 45

Additional Funding for


Classrooms and Teachers
As you may know, after the pay raise for public school
teachers was approved, teachers walked out in
protest for nine days asking the Governor and state
legislature for additional funding for Oklahoma’s
classrooms. To pay for the additional funding, the
Governor and state legislature expanded the number
of online purchases subject to the state sales tax, and
allowed ball and dice games at tribal casinos in which
winnings are taxed. Knowing this information, do you
support or oppose these actions to generate
additional funding for Oklahoma’s classrooms?
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 46

Additional Funding for


Classrooms and Teachers

6%
28% 61%
71%

34%
66% 23%
5% 6%
MEN WOMEN

TOTAL SUPPORT 78%


62% 63%
TOTAL OPPOSE
33% 34%
UNSURE NO OPINION
18%
4% 5% 4%
TRADITIONAL EVANGELICAL TRUMP
Oklahoma GOP Primary Survey, 644n, +/-3.86%, April 2018 47

Additional Funding for


Classrooms and Teachers
6%
28%
66%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION

70% 69% 69%


56%
44% 49%
40%
27% 28% 23%
11% 3% 3% 7%
18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
David Flaherty | Courtney Sievers

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES
303-861-8585
www.MagellanStrategies.com