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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 26TH APRIL 2018, 6 AM MST

Alberta
Voter Intention Numbers
26th April 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of three surveys. The survey was conducted three levels of government, President and CEO
between April 16th to 18th, 2018 among a Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
sample of 1071 adults, 18 years of age or older, international public affairs.
living in Alberta. The survey was conducted
using automated telephone interviews (Smart Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
landlines and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a national telephone directory compiled by a Liberal majority government in the 2015
Mainstreet Research from various sources and federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
random digit dialing. The part of the survey predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
that dialed from the directory was conducted elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
as a stratified dial of the following regions; special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
Calgary, Edmonton, and the rest of Alberta. a member of the World Association for Public
In the case of random digit dials, respondents Opinion Research and meets international and
were asked the additional question of what Canadian publication standards.
region of the province they resided in.
CONTACT INFORMATION
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet In Ottawa:
Research and was not sponsored by a third Quito Maggi, President
party. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

The margin of error for the first survey is +/- In Toronto:
3.11% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NDP GAIN ON UNITED CONSERVATIVES THANKS TO KINDER MORGAN SUPPORT

26 April 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – Premier Rachel Notley’s strong support for the Kinder Morgan
pipeline construction has given her a boost in support vis-à-vis the United Conservative
Party.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten
provincial polls. The poll surveyed 1071 Albertans between April 16th and April 18th. The poll
has a margin of error of +/- 3.11% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Our surveys show that Premier Notley is on the right side of public opinion with her position
on Kinder Morgan,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “She has
narrowed the gap between herself and the UCP by taking the lead among 18-34s and in
Edmonton, which is where the NDP need to do well if they are going to be re-elected in
2019”.

Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP led by Jason Kenney has 48.6% support (-7.3%
from January), while the governing NDP led by Notley currently enjoy 35.4% (+8.1%). The
Alberta Liberals led by David Khan enjoy 6.2%, the Alberta Party with new leader Stephen
Mandel are at 5.1%, and the Alberta Greens have 2.4%.

“The UCP would win an election if it were held today but that does not negate the fact that
the NDP have made up a lot of ground since January”, added Maggi. “The UCP still lead
among men, Calgary residents, and voters in the rest of Alberta, but it is evident that the
NDP have taken support from the Liberals, the Alberta Party, and the UCP themselves.”

The poll also found that 87.8% of Albertans at least somewhat support the Kinder Morgan
pipeline expansion, with 77.5% saying they strongly support the expansion. This contrasts
with just 3.3% who somewhat oppose the expansion and 3.1% who strongly oppose it. 5.8%
were unsure.

Moreover, 35.8% of Albertans say that they are more likely to vote for the NDP because of
Notley’s position on pipeline construction, with 26.1% say that they are less likely to vote for
the NDP. 38.1% said they were unsure.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Allelection
If a provincial Voters were held today, which party would you
vote for?

8.1%
1.8%
1.3%
5.1%
31.5%

5.3%

All Voters

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
8.1%
46.9%
1.8%
1.3% 2.3%
2.4%
5.1% 5.1%
31.5%
NDP- Notley UCP- Kenney Liberal- Khan
6.2%
5.3%
Alberta Party- Mandel Green- Boonlert & Deheer Another Party

Undecided 35.4%

All Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters

46.9%

48.6%

NDP United Conservatives Alberta Liberals Alberta Party

Greens Another Party Undecided
NDP United Conservatives Alberta Liberals Alberta Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

35.4%
48.6%
6.2%
All

5.1%
2.4%

36.7%
45.6%
Calgary

9.0%
4.4%
1.8%

45.5%
38.6%
Edmonton

5.4%
7.2%
2.5%

24.3%
Rest of Alberta

62.0%
2.9%
4.1%
3.2%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

NDP United Conservatives Alberta Liberals Alberta Party

Greens
Supporters say that the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion are a safer mode of
transportation of oil and building them provide an economic benefit for the national
interest. Opponents of pipeline construction say that they are an environmental risk
which outweigh any short-term benefits. Do you support the construction of the Trans
Mountain pipeline?
(geographic breakouts)

All 77.5% 10.3%

Male 85.7%

Female 69.4% 13.1% 8.7%

18-34 67.7% 15.1% 9.1%

35-49 78.3% 11.7%

50-64 84.4%

65+ 85.1%

Calgary 81%

Edmonton 71% 13.1% 9.1%

Rest of Alberta 79.1% 10.7%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose

Strongly Oppose Not Sure
As you might know, Premier Rachel Notley and the Provincial
NDP government is in favour of the Kinder Morgan pipeline
expansion. Does this make you more or less likely to vote
NDP?
(geographic breakouts)

All 35.8% 26.1% 38.1%

Male 33.6% 30.8% 35.5%

Female 38.6% 21.4% 40.1%

18-34 36.4% 19.4% 44.2%

35-49 41.8% 24.8% 33.4%

50-64 35% 29.7% 35.3%

65+ 27.4% 36.2% 36.5%

Calgary 35.5% 23.8% 40.7%

Edmonton 46.1% 20.3% 33.5%

Rest of Alberta 27.2% 34.9% 37.9%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

More likely Less likely Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 31.5% 24.4% 38.4% 38.1% 30.9% 26.3% 27.5% 33.6% 40.7% 20.1%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 46.9% 57.5% 36.7% 37.1% 48.1% 55.1% 51.9% 44.2% 37.9% 59.1%
Liberals led by David Khan 5.3% 5.6% 5.1% 6.7% 5.3% 4.8% 3.5% 7.6% 4.9% 2.6%
Alberta Party led Stephen Mandel 5.1% 5.2% 5% 5.2% 5.6% 3.4% 6.6% 4.5% 7.1% 4.1%
Alberta Green Party 1.3% 1.6% 1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.9% 1.8% 0.5% 1.8% 2.1%
Another Party 1.8% 1.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.9% 2% 2.5% 1.8% 0.5% 2.9%
Undecided 8.1% 4.5% 11.5% 9.5% 7.9% 7.5% 6.2% 7.8% 7.2% 9.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1071 655 416 274 323 295 179 285 299 487
Weighted Frequency 1071 534 537 341 292 268 170 438 312 321

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 33.9% 26.2% 41.4% 41.7% 33.4% 27.5% 29.1% 34.9% 44.5% 22.6%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 48.7% 58.6% 39.1% 38.6% 49.2% 57.8% 54% 46.7% 37.9% 61.6%
Liberals led by David Khan 6.2% 5.6% 6.8% 7.4% 6.3% 6% 4% 9.2% 5.3% 2.9%
Alberta Party led Stephen Mandel 5.1% 5.2% 5% 5.2% 5.6% 3.4% 6.6% 4.5% 7.1% 4.1%
Alberta Green Party 2.4% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 1.9% 2.5% 3.2%
Another Party 2.3% 1.6% 2.9% 2.6% 1.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 0.7% 3.4%
Undecided 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 2% 2.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1071 655 416 274 323 295 179 285 299 487
Weighted Frequency 1071 534 537 341 292 268 170 438 312 321

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 35.4% 27.3% 43.2% 43.4% 35.3% 28.5% 30.2% 36.7% 45.5% 24.3%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 48.6% 58.2% 39.3% 38.6% 49.7% 57.2% 53.5% 45.6% 38.6% 62.0%
Liberals led by David Khan 6.2% 5.5% 6.8% 7.4% 6.3% 6% 3.9% 9% 5.4% 2.9%
Alberta Party led Stephen Mandel 5.1% 5.2% 5% 5.2% 5.7% 3.4% 6.5% 4.4% 7.2% 4.1%
Alberta Green Party 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 1.8% 2.5% 3.2%
Another Party 2.3% 1.6% 2.9% 2.6% 1.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 0.7% 3.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1054 649 405 268 314 294 178 284 294 476
Weighted Frequency 1054 525 529 336 287 264 168 431 307 316
Supporters say that the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion are a safer mode
of transportation of oil and building them provide an economic benefit for
the national interest. Opponents of pipeline construction say that they are an
environmental risk which outweigh any short-term benefits. Do you support the
Alberta government’s decision to support the construction of the Trans Mountain
pipeline?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Strongly Support 77.5% 85.7% 69.4% 67.7% 78.3% 84.4% 85.1% 81% 71% 79.1%
Somewhat Support 10.3% 7.4% 13.1% 15.1% 11.7% 5.6% 5.4% 7.9% 13.1% 10.7%
Somewhat Oppose 3.3% 1.3% 5.3% 4.7% 1.9% 4.3% 1.3% 3.6% 3.2% 3%
Strongly Oppose 3.1% 2.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 3.3% 2.9% 3.6% 3.1%
Not Sure 5.8% 2.9% 8.7% 9.1% 5% 3.1% 5% 4.6% 9.1% 4.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1071 655 416 274 323 295 179 285 299 487
Weighted Frequency 1071 534 537 341 292 268 170 438 312 321

As you might know, Premier Rachel Notley and the Provincial NDP government is
in favour of the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion. Does this make you more or
less likely to vote NDP?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
More likely 35.8% 33.6% 38.6% 36.4% 41.8% 35% 27.4% 35.5% 46.1% 27.2%
Less likely 26.1% 30.8% 21.4% 19.4% 24.8% 29.7% 36.2% 23.8% 20.3% 34.9%
Not Sure 38.1% 35.5% 40.1% 44.2% 33.4% 35.3% 36.5% 40.7% 33.5% 37.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1071 649 405 268 314 294 178 284 294 476
Weighted Frequency 1071 525 529 336 287 264 168 431 307 316
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held Do you support the construction of
today, which party would you vote the Trans Mountain pipeline?
for? Strongly Support
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Somewhat Support
Rachel Notley Somewhat Oppose
United Conservative Party led by Strongly Oppose
Jason Kenney Not Sure
Alberta Liberal Party led by David
Khan As you might know, Premier Rachel
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel Notley and the Provincial NDP
Green Party of Alberta government is in favour of the Kinder
Another Party Morgan pipeline expansion. Does this
Undecided make you more or less likely to vote
NDP?
And which party are you leaning More likely
towards? (only asked of respondents Less likely
who were undecided in previous Not Sure
question)
Alberta New Democratic Party led by What is your gender?
Rachel Notley Male
United Conservative Party led by Female
Jason Kenney
Alberta Liberal Party led by David What is your age group?
Khan 18 to 34 years of age
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 35 to 49 years of age
Green Party of Alberta 50 to 64 years of age
Another Party 65 years of age or older
Undecided

Supporters say that the Kinder Morgan
pipeline expansion are a safer mode
of transportation of oil and building
them provide an economic benefit
for the national interest. Opponents
of pipeline construction say that
they are an environmental risk which
outweigh any short-term benefits.
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between April 16th,
2018 and April 18th, 2018, among a sample of 1071 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Alberta. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Alberta.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in Alberta: Calgary,
Edmonton, and the rest of Alberta. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases,
respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.11% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.83%, Females: +/- 4.8%,
18-34 age group: +/- 5.92%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.45%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.7%, 65+ age
group: +/- 7.32%, Calgary +/- 5.8%, Edmonton, 5.67%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 4.44%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.