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You are on page 1of 34

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8 Hypothesis Testing:

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and Power

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Learning Objectives

After reading this chapter, you should be able to:

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1. Identify the four steps of hypothesis testing. 5. Distinguish between a one-tailed test and a

two-tailed test, and explain why a Type III error

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is possible only with one-tailed tests.

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statistical significance. 6. Elucidate effect size and compute a Cohen’s d

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3. Define Type I error and Type II error, and

identify the type of error that researchers 7. Define power and identify six factors that

control. influence power.

4. Calculate the one-sample z test and interpret 8. Summarize the results of a one-sample z test in

the results. APA format.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 241

edge.sagepub.com/priviterastats3e

We use inferential statistics because it allows us to observe samples to

learn more about the behavior in populations that are often too large or

inaccessible to observe. We use samples because we know how they are

related to populations. For example, suppose the average score on a stan-

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dardized exam in a given population is 150. In Chapter 7, we showed that

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the sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the population mean—if we

select a random sample from a population, then on average the value of

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the sample mean will equal the value of the population mean. In our exam-

ple, if we select a random sample from this population with a mean of 150,

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then, on average, the value of a sample mean will equal 150. On the basis

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of the central limit theorem, we know that the probability of selecting any

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other sample mean value from this population is normally distributed.

In behavioral research, we select samples to learn more about pop-

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ulations of interest to us. In terms of the mean, we measure a sample

mean to learn more about the mean in a population. Therefore, we will use

the sample mean to describe the population mean. We begin by stating a

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hypothesis about the value of a population mean, and then we select a

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A hypothesis is a statement

sample and measure the mean in that sample. On average, the value of

or proposed explanation for an

the sample mean will equal that of the population mean. The larger the observation, a phenomenon, or

difference or discrepancy between the sample mean and population mean, a scientific problem that can be

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the less likely it will be that the value of the population mean we hypothe- tested using the research method.

sized is correct. This type of experimental situation, using the example of A hypothesis is often a statement

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standardized exam scores, is illustrated in Figure 8.1. about the value for a parameter in a

population.

The method of evaluating samples to learn more about characteristics

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really a systematic way to test claims or ideas about a group or population. significance testing is a method

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To illustrate, suppose we read an article stating that children in the United for testing a claim or hypothesis

States watch an average of 3 hours of TV per week. To test whether this about a parameter in a population,

claim is true for preschool children, we record the time (in hours) that using data measured in a sample.

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20 American preschool children (the sample), among all children in the

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United States (the population), watch TV. The mean we measure for these sample statistic would be selected

20 children is a sample mean. We can then compare the sample mean for if the hypothesis regarding the

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our selection to the population mean stated in the article. population parameter were true.

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Chapter Outline

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8.1 Inferential Statistics and Hypothesis Testing 8.7 Measuring the Size of an Effect:

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8.3 Hypothesis Testing and Sampling Distributions 8.8 Effect Size, Power, and Sample Size

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8.4 Making a Decision: Types of Error 8.9 Additional Factors That Increase Power

8.5 Testing for Significance: Examples Using 8.10 SPSS in Focus: A Preview for

the z Test Chapters 9 to 18

8.6 Research in Focus: Directional Versus 8.11 APA in Focus: Reporting the Test Statistic

Nondirectional Tests and Effect Size

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

242 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

describe each of these four steps in greater detail in Section 8.2.

1. To begin, we identify a hypothesis or claim that we feel should be

tested. For example, we might want to test whether the mean number

of hours that preschool children in the United States watch TV is

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3 hours per week.

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2. We select a criterion upon which we decide that the hypothesis being

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tested is true or not. For example, the hypothesis is whether pre-

school children watch 3 hours of TV per week. If preschool children

watch 3 hours of TV per week, then the sample we select should

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have a mean close to or equal to 3 hours. If preschool children watch

more or less than 3 hours of TV per week, then the sample we select

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should have a mean far from 3 hours. However, at what point do we

decide that the discrepancy between the sample mean and 3 is so

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big that we can reject that preschool children watch 3 hours of TV per

week? We answer this question in this step of hypothesis testing.

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3. Select a random sample from the population and measure the sample

mean. For example, we could select a sample of 20 preschool children

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and measure the mean time (in hours) that they watch TV per week.

4. Compare what we observe in the sample to what we expect to

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observe if the claim we are testing—that preschool children watch

3 hours of TV per week—is true. We expect the sample mean to be

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population mean is small, then we will likely decide that preschool

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large, then we will likely decide to reject that claim.

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FIGURE 8.1

Equal to 150

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We expect the

sample mean to be

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equal to the

population mean.

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µ = 150

If 150 is the correct population mean, then the sample mean will equal 150, on average, with outcomes

farther from the population mean being less and less likely to occur.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 243

LEARNING CHECK 1

1. On average, what do we expect the sample mean to be 2. True or false: Researchers select a sample from a population

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equal to? to learn more about characteristics in that sample.

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population from which the sample was selected.

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Answers: 1. The population mean; 2. False. Researchers select a sample from a population to learn more about characteristics in the

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8.2 Four Steps to Hypothesis Testing

The goal of hypothesis testing is to determine the likelihood that a sam-

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ple statistic would be selected if the hypothesis regarding a population

parameter were true. In this section, we describe the four steps of hypoth-

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esis testing that were briefly introduced in Section 8.1:

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Step 1: State the hypotheses.

Step 2: Set the criteria for a decision.

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Step 3: Compute the test statistic.

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Step 4: Make a decision.

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mean in a null hypothesis, which we presume is true. For the example

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of children watching TV, we can state the null hypothesis that preschool

children in the United States watch an average of 3 hours of TV per week

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as follows: Hypothesis testing is a method

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likely to be true.

This is a starting point so that we can decide whether or not the null

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The null hypothesis (H0), stated

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in a courtroom. When a defendant is on trial, the jury starts by assuming as the null, is a statement about a

that the defendant is innocent. The basis of the decision is to determine population parameter, such as the

whether this assumption is true. Likewise, in hypothesis testing, we start population mean, that is assumed

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by assuming that the hypothesis or claim we are testing is true. This is to be true.

stated in the null hypothesis. The basis of the decision is to determine The null hypothesis is a starting

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whether this assumption is likely to be true. point. We will test whether the

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The key reason we are testing the null hypothesis is because we think value stated in the null hypothesis

is likely to be true.

it is wrong. We state what we think is wrong about the null hypothesis in

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be innocent (this is the null hypothesis so to speak), so the burden is on (H1) is a statement that directly

contradicts a null hypothesis by

a prosecutor to conduct a trial to show evidence that the defendant is not

stating that the actual value of a

innocent. In a similar way, we assume the null hypothesis is true, placing population parameter is less than,

the burden on the researcher to conduct a study to show evidence that greater than, or not equal to the

the null hypothesis is unlikely to be true. Regardless, we always make a value stated in the null hypothesis.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

244 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

FYI ecision about the null hypothesis (that it is likely or unlikely to be true).

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The alternative hypothesis is needed for Step 2.

In hypothesis testing, we conduct

a study to test whether the null

The null and alternative hypotheses must encompass all possibilities

hypothesis is likely to be true.

for the population mean. For the example of children watching TV, we can

state that the value in the null hypothesis is not equal to (≠) 3 hours. In this

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way, the null value (µ = 3) and the alternative value (all other outcomes)

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encompass all possible values for the population mean time children

watch TV. If we have reason to believe that children watch more than (>) or

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less than (<) 3 hours of TV per week, then researchers can make “greater

than” or “less than” statements in the alternative hypothesis—this type

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of alternative is described in Example 8.2 (page XXX). Regardless of the

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decision alternative, the null and alternative hypotheses must encompass

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all possibilities for the value of the population mean.

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MAKING SENSE TESTING THE NULL HYPOTHESIS

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A decision made in hypothesis testing relates to the null 2. The bias is to do nothing. Using the courtroom

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hypothesis. This means two things in terms of making a decision: analogy, for the same reason the courts would

rather let the guilty go free than send the

1. Decisions are made about the null hypothesis. Using innocent to prison, researchers would rather do

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the courtroom analogy, a jury decides whether a nothing (accept previous notions of truth stated

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defendant is guilty or not guilty. The jury does not by a null hypothesis) than make statements that

make a decision of guilty or innocent because the are not correct. For this reason, we assume the

defendant is assumed to be innocent. All evidence null hypothesis is correct, thereby placing the

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presented in a trial is to show that a defendant is guilty. burden on the researcher to demonstrate that

The evidence either shows guilt (decision: guilty) or the null hypothesis is not likely to be correct.

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does not (decision: not guilty). In a similar way, the null Keep in mind, however, that when we retain the

hypothesis is assumed to be correct. A researcher null hypothesis, this does not mean that the null

conducts a study showing evidence that this hypothesis is correct. Instead, it means that there

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assumption is unlikely (we reject the null hypothesis) is insufficient evidence to reject it; it is not possible

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or fails to do so (we retain the null hypothesis). to prove the null hypothesis.

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Step 2: Set the criteria for a decision. To set the criteria for a decision, we

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Level of significance, or

significance level, is a criterion state the level of significance for a hypothesis test. This is similar to the

of judgment upon which a decision criterion that jurors use in a criminal trial. Jurors decide whether the evi-

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is made regarding the value stated dence presented shows guilt beyond a reasonable doubt (this is the criterion).

in a null hypothesis. The criterion

Likewise, in hypothesis testing, we collect data to show that the null

is based on the probability of

hypothesis is not true, based on the likelihood of selecting a sample mean

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from a population (the likelihood is the criterion). The likelihood or level of

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null hypothesis were true. significance is typically set at 5% in behavioral research studies. When the

probability of obtaining a sample mean would be less than 5% if the null

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or level of significance is typically hypothesis were true, then we conclude that the sample we selected is too

set at 5%. When the probability of unlikely, and thus we reject the null hypothesis.

obtaining a sample mean would be

less than 5% if the null hypothesis The alternative hypothesis is identified so that the criterion can be

were true, then we reject the value specifically stated. Remember that the sample mean will equal the pop-

stated in the null hypothesis. ulation mean on average if the null hypothesis is true. All other possible

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 245

values of the sample mean are normally distributed (central limit theorem). FYI

The empirical rule tells us that at least 95% of all sample means fall

The level of significance in hypothesis

within about 2 standard deviations (SD) of the population mean, meaning

testing is the criterion we use to decide

that there is less than a 5% probability of obtaining a sample mean that

whether the value stated in the null

is beyond 2 SD from the population mean. For the example of children

hypothesis is likely to be true.

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watching TV, we can look for the probability of obtaining a sample mean

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beyond 2 SD in the upper tail (greater than 3), the lower tail (less than 3), or

both tails (not equal to 3). Figure 8.2 shows the three decision alternatives

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for a hypothesis test; to conduct a hypothesis test, you choose only one

alternative. How to choose an alternative is described in this chapter. No

matter what test you compute, the null and alternative hypotheses should

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encompass all possibilities for the population mean.

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FIGURE 8.2 The Three Decision Alternatives for a Hypothesis Test

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We expect the

sample mean to be

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H1: Children equal to the H1: Children

watch less than watch more

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population mean.

3 hours of TV than 3 hours of

per week. y, TV per week.

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µ=3

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µ=3

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µ=3

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H1: Children

do not watch

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3 hours of

TV per week.

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Although a decision alternative can be stated in only one tail, the null and alternative hypotheses should encompass

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Step 3: Compute the test statistic. Suppose we measure a sample mean

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equal to 4 hours that preschool children watch TV per week. Of course, we how far or how many standard

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did not observe everyone in the population, so to make a decision, we need deviations a sample outcome is

to evaluate how likely this sample outcome is, if the population mean stated from the value stated in a null

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in the null hypothesis (3 hours per week) is true. To determine this likeli- hypothesis. It allows researchers

hood, we use a test statistic, which tells us how far, or how many standard to determine the likelihood of

obtaining sample outcomes if the

deviations, a sample mean is from the population mean. The larger the value

null hypothesis were true. The

of the test statistic, the farther the distance, or number of standard devia- value of the test statistic is used to

tions, a sample mean outcome is from the population mean stated in the null make a decision regarding a null

hypothesis. The value of the test statistic is used to make a decision in Step 4. hypothesis.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

246 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

FYI Step 4: Make a decision. We use the value of the test statistic to make a

decision about the null hypothesis. The decision is based on the probability

We use the value of the test statistic

of obtaining a sample mean, given that the value stated in the null hypoth-

to make a decision regarding the null

esis is true. If the probability of obtaining a sample mean is less than or

hypothesis.

equal to 5% when the null hypothesis is true, then the decision is to reject

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the null hypothesis. If the probability of obtaining a sample mean is greater

FYI

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than 5% when the null hypothesis is true, then the decision is to retain the

Researchers make decisions

null hypothesis. In sum, there are two decisions a researcher can make:

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regarding the null hypothesis. The

decision can be to retain the null 1. Reject the null hypothesis. The sample mean is associated with a

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(p > .05) or reject the null (p ≤ .05). low probability of occurrence when the null hypothesis is true. For

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this decision, we conclude that the value stated in the null hypoth-

esis is wrong; it is rejected.

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2. Retain the null hypothesis. The sample mean is associated with

a high probability of occurrence when the null hypothesis is true.

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For this decision, we conclude that there is insufficient evidence to

reject the null hypothesis; this does not mean that the null hypoth-

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esis is correct. It is not possible to prove the null hypothesis.

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A p value is the probability of The probability of obtaining a sample mean, given that the value stated

a obtaining a sample outcome, in the null hypothesis is true, is stated by the p value. The p value is a

probability: It varies between 0 and 1 and can never be negative. In Step 2,

given that the value stated in the

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null hypothesis is true. The p value we stated the criterion or probability of obtaining a sample mean at which

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for obtaining a sample outcome point we will decide to reject the value stated in the null hypothesis, which

is compared to the level of

is typically set at 5% in behavioral research. To make a decision, we com-

significance or criterion for making

pare the p value to the criterion we set in Step 2.

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a decision.

When the p value is less than 5% (p < .05), we reject the null hypothesis,

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Significance, or statistical and when p = .05, the decision is also to reject the null hypothesis. When

significance, describes a decision the p value is greater than 5% (p > .05), we retain the null hypothesis. The

made concerning a value stated decision to reject or retain the null hypothesis is called significance. When

in the null hypothesis. When the

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the p value is less than or equal to .05, we reach significance; the decision is

null hypothesis is rejected, we

to reject the null hypothesis. When the p value is greater than .05, we fail to

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hypothesis is retained, we fail to reach significance; the decision is to retain the null hypothesis. Figure 8.3

summarizes the four steps of hypothesis testing.

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reach significance.

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LEARNING CHECK 2

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1. State the four steps of hypothesis testing. 4. A test statistic is associated with a p value less than .05.

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2. The decision in hypothesis testing is to retain or reject

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which hypothesis: null or alternative? 5. If the null hypothesis is rejected, did we reach

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significance?

3. The criterion or level of significance in behavioral

research is typically set at what probability value?

4: Make a decision; 2. Null hypothesis; 3. The level of significance is typically set at .05; 4. Reject the null hypothesis; 5. Yes.

Answers: 1. Step 1: State the hypotheses. Step 2: Set the criteria for a decision. Step 3: Compute the test statistic. Step

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 247

A researcher states a null POPULATION

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hypothesis about a value in the

population (H0) and an

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alternative hypothesis that

contradicts the null hypothesis.

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STEP 2: Set the criteria for a --------------------------------------------------

decision. A criterion is set upon Level of Significance (Criterion)

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--------------------------------------------------

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which a researcher will decide

whether or not to reject the

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value stated in the null

hypothesis. STEP 4: Make a decision.

Conduct a study

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A sample is selected from the If the probability of obtaining a

with a sample

population, and a sample mean sample mean is less than or equal

selected from a

is measured. to 5% when the null is true, then

population.

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reject the null hypothesis.

If the probability of obtaining a

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sample mean is greater than 5%

when the null is true, then

STEP 3: Compute the test retain the null hypothesis.

Measure data

statistic. This will produce a

y,

value that can be compared to and compute

a test statistic.

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the criterion that was set before

the sample was selected.

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no

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sampling distribution of the mean. In Chapter 7, we showed three charac-

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teristics of the mean, two of which are particularly relevant in this section:

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On average, a randomly selected sample will have a mean equal

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the null hypothesis. We expect that, if the null hypothesis is true,

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sample mean equal to the value stated in the null hypothesis.

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the probabilities of all other possible sample means we could select

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state an alternative hypothesis to locate the probability of obtaining

sample means with less than a 5% chance of being selected if the

value stated in the null hypothesis is true. Figure 8.2 shows that we

can identify sample mean outcomes in one or both tails using the

normal distribution.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

248 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

distribution, we must know (1) the population mean and (2) the standard

error of the mean (SEM; introduced in Chapter 7). Each value is entered

in the test statistic formula computed in Step 3, thereby allowing us to

make a decision in Step 4. To review, Table 8.1 displays the notations used

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to describe populations, samples, and sampling distributions. Table 8.2

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summarizes the characteristics of each type of distribution.

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A Review of the Notations Used for the Mean, Variance, and

TABLE 8.1 Standard Deviation in Populations, Samples, and Sampling

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Distributions

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Characteristic Population Sample Sampling Distribution

Mean µ M or X µM = µ

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Variance s2 s2 or SD2 σ

2

σ M2 =

n

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Standard s s or SD σM =

σ

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deviation n

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A Review of the Key Differences Between Population, Sample,

TABLE 8.2

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and Sampling Distributions

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Distribution Distribution Means

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What is it? Scores of all Scores of a select All possible sample means

persons in a portion of persons that can be selected, given

population from the population a certain sample size

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accessible?

What is the Could be any Could be any shape Normal distribution

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shape? shape

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LEARNING CHECK 3

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1. For the following statements, write increases or 2. A researcher selects a sample of 49 students to test

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decreases as an answer. The likelihood that we reject the null hypothesis that the average student exercises

the null hypothesis (increases or decreases): 90 minutes per week. What is the mean for the

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(a) The closer the value of a sample mean is to the sampling distribution for this population of interest if the

value stated by the null hypothesis. null hypothesis is true?

value stated in the null hypothesis.

Answers: 1. (a) Decreases, (b) Increases; 2. 90 minutes per week.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 249

In Step 4, we decide whether to retain or reject the null hypothesis.

Because we are observing a sample and not an entire population, it is pos-

sible that our decision about a null hypothesis is wrong. Table 8.3 shows

that there are four decision alternatives regarding the truth and falsity of

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the decision we make about a null hypothesis:

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1. The decision to retain the null hypothesis is correct.

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2. The decision to retain the null hypothesis is incorrect.

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3. The decision to reject the null hypothesis is correct.

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4. The decision to reject the null hypothesis is incorrect.

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We investigate each decision alternative in this section. Because we will

observe a sample, and not a population, it is impossible to know for sure

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the truth in the population. So for the sake of illustration, we will assume

we know this. This assumption is labeled as Truth in the Population in

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Table 8.3. In this section, we introduce each decision alternative.

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TABLE 8.3 Four Outcomes for Making a Decision y,

Decision

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Retain the Null Reject the Null

Hypothesis Hypothesis

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Population 1−α α

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β 1−β

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POWER

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The decision can be either correct (correctly reject or retain the null hypothesis) or wrong (incorrectly

reject or retain the null hypothesis).

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When we decide to retain the null hypothesis, we can be correct or incorrect. A Type II error is the probability

The correct decision is to retain a true null hypothesis. This decision is

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called a null result or null finding. This is usually an uninteresting deci- hypothesis.

sion because the decision is to retain what we already assumed; thus, our

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evidence is inconclusive. For this reason, a null result alone is rarely pub-

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The incorrect decision is to retain a false null hypothesis: a “false neg-

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error. With each test we make, there is always some probability that the

decision is a Type II error. In this decision, we decide not to reject previ-

ous notions of truth that are in fact false. While this type of error is often

regarded as less problematic than a Type I error (defined in the next para- Type II error, or beta (β) error,

graph), it can be problematic in many fields, such as in medicine where is the probability of retaining a null

testing of treatments could mean life or death for patients. hypothesis that is actually false.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

250 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

Researchers directly control for the When we decide to reject the null hypothesis, we can be correct or incorrect.

probability of a Type I error by stating The incorrect decision is to reject a true null hypothesis; a “false positive”

an alpha (α) level. finding. This decision is an example of a Type I error. With each test we

make, there is always some probability that our decision is a Type I error.

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FYI A researcher who makes this error decides to reject previous notions of

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truth that are in fact true. Using the courtroom analogy, making this type

The power in hypothesis testing is

of error is analogous to finding an innocent person guilty. To minimize this

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the probability of correctly rejecting a

error, we therefore place the burden on the researcher to demonstrate

value stated in the null hypothesis.

evidence that the null hypothesis is indeed false.

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Because we assume the null hypothesis is true, we control for Type I

Type I error is the probability of error by stating a level of significance. The level we set, called the alpha

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rejecting a null hypothesis that is

actually true. Researchers directly

level (symbolized as α), is the largest probability of committing a Type I

control for the probability of error that we will allow and still decide to reject the null hypothesis. This

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committing this type of error. criterion is usually set at .05 (α = .05) in behavioral research. To make

a decision, we compare the alpha level (or criterion) to the p value (the

An alpha (α) level is the level

actual likelihood of obtaining a sample mean, if the null were true). When

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of significance or criterion for a

hypothesis test. It is the largest the p value is less than the criterion of α = .05, we decide to reject the null

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probability of committing a Type hypothesis; otherwise, we retain the null hypothesis.

I error that we will allow and still

The correct decision is to reject a false null hypothesis. In other words,

decide to reject the null hypothesis.

we decide that the null hypothesis is false when it is indeed false. This

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The power in hypothesis testing decision is called the power of the decision-making process because it

is the probability of rejecting a false is the decision we aim for. Remember that we are only testing the null

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null hypothesis. Specifically, it is the

hypothesis because we think it is wrong. Deciding to reject a false null

probability that a randomly selected

hypothesis, then, is the power, inasmuch as we learn the most about pop-

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hypothesis is false when the null ulations when we accurately reject false notions of truth about them. This

hypothesis is indeed false. decision is the most published result in behavioral research.

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LEARNING CHECK 4

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1. What type of error do we directly control? 3. What type of error is associated with decisions to reject

the null hypothesis?

2. What type of error is associated with decisions to retain

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the null hypothesis? 4. State the two correct decisions that a researcher can make.

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Answers: 1. Type I error; 2. Type II error; 3. Type I error; 4. Retain a true null hypothesis and reject a false null hypothesis.

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Examples Using the z Test

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The one-sample z test is a

tion. The type of test statistic we use in hypothesis testing depends largely

statistical procedure used to test

hypotheses concerning the mean on what is known in a population. When we know the mean and standard

in a single population with a known deviation in a single population, we can use the one-sample z test, which

variance. we use in this section to illustrate the four steps of hypothesis testing.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 251

Recall that we can state one of three alternative hypotheses: A popu- FYI

lation mean is greater than (>), less than (<), or not equal to (≠) the value

The one-sample z test is used to

stated in a null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis determines which

test hypotheses about a population

tail of a sampling distribution to place the level of significance in, as illus-

mean when the population

trated in Figure 8.2. In this section, we will use an example for a directional

variance is known

e

and a nondirectional hypothesis test.

FYI

ut

Nondirectional Tests (H1: ≠)

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Nondirectional tests are used

In Example 8.1, we use the one-sample z test for a nondirectional, or two- to test hypotheses when

tailed, test, where the alternative hypothesis is stated as not equal to (≠) we are interested in any alter

t

is

the null hypothesis. For this test, we will place the level of significance in native to the null hypothesis.

both tails of the sampling distribution. We are therefore interested in any

rd

alternative to the null hypothesis. This is the most common alternative

hypothesis tested in behavioral science.

,o

Example 8.1

st

po

A common measure of intelligence is the

intelligence quotient (IQ) test (Castles, 2012;

Naglieri, 2015; Spinks et al., 2007) in which scores

in the general healthy population are approximately

y,

normally distributed with 100 ± 15 (µ ± σ). Suppose

op

we select a sample of 100 graduate students to

identify if the IQ of those students is significantly

different from that of the general healthy adult

tc

equal to 103 (M = 103). Compute the one-sample

no

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hypothesis at a .05 level of significance (α = .05).

Step 1: State the hypotheses. The population mean IQ

o

We are testing whether the null hypothesis is (=) or is

D

f-

H0: µ = 100 Mean IQ scores are equal to 100 in the population of graduate students.

Nondirectional tests, or two-

H1: µ ≠ 100 Mean IQ scores are not equal to 100 in the population of graduate

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students. in which the alternative hypothesis

is stated as not equal to (≠) a

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Step 2: Set the criteria for a decision. The level of significance is .05, which makes the alpha value stated in the null hypothesis.

level α = .05. To locate the probability of obtaining a sample mean from a given population, Hence, the researcher is interested

we use the standard normal distribution. We will locate the z scores in a standard normal in any alternative to the null

ft

distribution that are the cutoffs, or critical values, for sample mean values with less than a hypothesis.

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5% probability of occurrence if the value stated in the null hypothesis (µ = 100) is true.

In a nondirectional (two-tailed) hypothesis test, we divide the alpha value in half so that an A critical value is a cutoff value

D

equal proportion of area is placed in the upper and lower tail. Table 8.4 gives the critical that defines the boundaries beyond

values for one- and two-tailed tests at .05, .01, and .001 levels of significance. Figure 8.4 which less than 5% of sample

displays a graph with the critical values for Example 8.1 shown. In this example, α = .05, so means can be obtained if the null

we split this probability in half: hypothesis is true. Sample means

obtained beyond a critical value will

α .05 result in a decision to reject the null

Splitting α in half: = = .0250 in each tail.

2 2 hypothesis.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

252 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

FYI To locate the critical values, we use the unit normal table given in Table C.1 in Appendix C

and look up the proportion .0250 toward the tail in Column C. This value, .0250, is listed for

A critical value marks the cutoff for the a z score equal to z = 1.96. This is the critical value for the upper tail of the standard normal

rejection region. distribution. Because the normal distribution is symmetrical, the critical value in the bottom

tail will be the same distance below the mean, or z = −1.96. The regions beyond the critical

values, displayed in Figure 8.4, are called the rejection regions. If the value of the test

e

FYI statistic falls in these regions, then the decision is to reject the null hypothesis; otherwise,

ut

we retain the null hypothesis.

For two-tailed tests, the alpha is split

rib

in half and placed in each tail of a

standard normal distribution. Critical Values for One- and Two-Tailed Tests at Three

TABLE 8.4 Commonly Used Levels of Significance

t

is

rd

Type of Test

Level of Significance (α) One-Tailed Two-Tailed

,o

.05 +1.645 or −1.645 ±1.96

st

.01 +2.33 or −2.33 ±2.58

po

.001 +3.09 or −3.09 ±3.30

y,

The Critical Values (±1.96 ) for a Nondirectional (two-tailed)

FIGURE 8.4

op

Test with a .05 Level of Significance

tc

(two-tailed) test with α = .05

no

o

D

α = .0250 α = .0250

f-

oo

region beyond a critical value in a Null

Pr

−1.96 1.96

hypothesis test. When the value

of a test statistic is in the rejection

region, we decide to reject the null

ft

Step 3: Compute the test statistic. Step 2 sets the stage for making a decision because the

ra

null hypothesis.

criterion is set. The probability is less than 5% that we will obtain a sample mean that is at

least 1.96 standard deviations above or below the value of the population mean stated in

D

The z statistic is an inferential the null hypothesis. In this step, we will compute a test statistic to determine whether the

statistic used to determine the

sample mean we selected is beyond or within the critical values we stated in Step 2.

number of standard deviations in

a standard normal distribution that The test statistic for a one-sample z test is called the z statistic. The z statistic converts

a sample mean deviates from the any sampling distribution into a standard normal distribution. The z statistic is therefore a z

population mean stated in the null transformation. The solution of the formula gives the number of standard deviations, or z scores,

hypothesis. that a sample mean falls above or below the population mean stated in the null hypothesis.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 253

We can then compare the value of the z statistic, called the obtained value, to the critical

values we determined in Step 2. The z statistic formula is the sample mean minus the population

mean stated in the null hypothesis, divided by the standard error of the mean:

.

obt M n

e

To calculate the z statistic, first compute the standard error (σM), which is the denominator

ut

for the z statistic:

rib

σ 15

σM = = =1.50.

n 100

t

is

Then compute the z statistic by substituting the values of the sample mean, M = 103; the

population mean stated by the null hypothesis, µ = 100; and the standard error we just

rd

calculated, σM = 1.5:

,o

M −µ 103 − 100

zobt = = = 2.00.

σM 1.5

st

Step 4: Make a decision. To make a decision, we compare the obtained value to the

critical values. We reject the null hypothesis if the obtained value exceeds a critical value.

FYI

po

Figure 8.5 shows that the obtained value (zobt = 2.00) is greater than the critical value; it falls The z statistic measures the number

in the rejection region. The decision for this test is to reject the null hypothesis. of standard deviations, or z scores,

that a sample mean falls above

y,

or below the population mean

FIGURE 8.5 Making a Decision for Example 8.1 stated in the null hypothesis.

op

tc

which falls in the rejection region;

reject the null hypothesis.

no

o

α = .0250 α = .0250

D

hypothesis

f-

oo

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Null

−1.96

Pr

2.00 1.96

Because the obtained value falls in the rejection region (it is beyond the critical value in the upper tail), we

ft

ra

of a test statistic. This value is

D

The probability of obtaining zobt = 2.00 is stated by the p value. To locate the p value or compared to the critical value(s)

probability of obtaining the z statistic, we refer to the unit normal table in Table C.1 in of a hypothesis test to make a

Appendix C. Look for a z score equal to 2.00 in Column A, then locate the probability decision. When the obtained

toward the tail in Column C. The value is .0228. Finally, multiply the value given in Column C value exceeds a critical value, we

by the number of tails for alpha. Because this is a two-tailed test, we multiply .0228 by 2: decide to reject the null hypothesis;

p = (.0228) × 2 tails = .0456. Table 8.5 summarizes how to determine the p value for one- otherwise, we retain the null

and two-tailed tests. hypothesis.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

254 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

Number of tails 1 2

e

Probability p p

ut

p value calculation 1p 2p

rib

To find the p value for the z statistic, find its probability (toward the tail) in the unit normal table and

multiply this probability by the number of tails for alpha.

t

is

We found in Example 8.1 that if the null hypothesis were true, then p = .0456 that we

FYI would have selected this sample mean from this population. The criterion we set in Step 2

rd

A nondirectional test is conducted was that the probability must be less than 5% or p = .0500 that we would obtain a sample

mean if the null hypothesis were true. Because p is less than 5%, we decide to reject the

when it is impossible or highly unlikely

,o

null hypothesis. We conclude that the mean IQ score among graduate students in this

that a sample mean will fall in the

population is not 100 (the value stated in the null hypothesis). Instead, we found that the

direction opposite to that stated in the

mean was significantly larger than 100.

st

alternative hypothesis.

po

Directional Tests (H1: > or H1: <)

An alternative to the nondirectional test is a directional, or one-tailed,

test, where the alternative hypothesis is stated as greater than (>) the null

y,

hypothesis or less than (<) the null hypothesis. For an upper-tail critical

Directional tests, or one-tailed

op

test, or a “greater than” statement, we place the level of significance in the

tests, are hypothesis tests in upper tail of the sampling distribution. So we are interested in any alter-

which the alternative hypothesis is

native greater than the value stated in the null hypothesis. This test can be

tc

than (<) a value stated in the null used when it is impossible or highly unlikely that a sample mean will fall

hypothesis. Hence, the researcher below the population mean stated in the null hypothesis.

no

is interested in a specific alternative For a lower-tail critical test, or a “less than” statement, we place the level

to the null hypothesis.

of significance or critical value in the lower tail of the sampling distribution.

To illustrate how to make a decision So we are interested in any alternative less than the value stated in the null

o

using the one-tailed test, we work hypothesis. This test can be used when it is impossible or highly unlikely that a

D

sample mean will fall above the population mean stated in the null hypothesis.

which such a test could be used.

f-

Example 8.2

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reading proficiency among elementary school students following

Pr

anything, improve reading skills, so if any outcome were possible,

it would be to see improvement. For this reason, we could use

ft

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increases of 12 ± 4 (µ ± σ) points on a given standardized

©iStockphoto.com/ Mari

D

in the reading program and record a sample mean improvement in

reading proficiency equal to 14 (M = 14) points, then compute the

one-sample z test at a .05 level of significance to determine if the

reading program was effective.

Step 1: State the hypotheses. The population mean is 12, and we

are testing whether the alternative is greater than (>) this value:

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 255

the population.

H1: µ > 12 With the reading program, mean improvement is greater than 12

points in the population.

Notice a key change for one-tailed tests: The null hypothesis encompasses outcomes in

e

all directions that are opposite the alternative hypothesis. In other words, the directional

ut

statement is incorporated into the statement of both hypotheses. In this example, the reading

program is intended to improve reading proficiency. Therefore, a one-tailed test is used

rib

because there is a specific, expected, logical direction for the effect if the reading program

were effective. The null hypothesis therefore states that the expected effect will not occur

(that mean improvement will be at most 12 points), and the alternative hypothesis states that

t

is

the expected effect will occur (that mean improvement will be greater than 12 points).

Step 2: Set the criteria for a decision. The level of significance is .05, which makes the

rd

alpha level α = .05. To determine the critical value for an upper-tail critical test, we locate

the probability .0500 toward the tail in Column C in the unit normal table in Table C.1 in

,o

Appendix C. The z score associated with this probability is between z = 1.64 and z = 1.65.

The average of these z scores is z = 1.645, which is the critical value or cutoff for the

rejection region. Figure 8.6 shows that, for this test, we place the entire rejection region, or

st

alpha level, in the upper tail of the standard normal distribution.

po

The Critical Value (1.645) for a Directional (upper-tail critical)

FIGURE 8.6

Hypothesis Test at a .05 Level of Significance

y,

op

tail critical test with α = .05

tc

no

Rejection region

α = .05

o

D

f-

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Null

z = 1.645

oo

When the test statistic exceeds 1.645, we reject the null hypothesis; otherwise, we retain the null

Pr

hypothesis.

ft

Step 3: Compute the test statistic. Step 2 sets the stage for making a decision because the

criterion is set. The probability is less than 5% that we will obtain a sample mean that is at

FYI

ra

least 1.645 standard deviations above the value of the population mean stated in the null For one-tailed tests, the alpha

hypothesis. In this step, we compute a test statistic to determine whether or not the sample level is placed in a single tail of a

D

To calculate the z statistic, first compute the standard error (σM), which is the denominator

for the z statistic:

σ

σM = = 4

= 0.80.

n 25

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

256 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

Then compute the z statistic by substituting the values of the sample mean, M = 14; the

population mean stated by the null hypothesis, µ = 12; and the standard error we just

calculated, σM = 0.80:

M − µ 14 −12

zobt = = = 2.50.

σM 0.80

e

ut

Step 4: Make a decision. To make a decision, we compare the obtained value to the critical

value. We reject the null hypothesis if the obtained value exceeds the critical value. Figure 8.7

rib

shows that the obtained value (zobt = 2.50) is greater than the critical value; it falls in the

rejection region. The decision is to reject the null hypothesis. To locate the p value or

probability of obtaining the z statistic, we refer to the unit normal table in Table C.1 in Appendix

t

C. Look for a z score equal to 2.50 in Column A, then locate the probability toward the tail in

is

Column C. The p value is .0062 (p = .0062). We do not double the p value for one-tailed tests.

rd

We found in Example 8.2 that if the null hypothesis were true, then

p = .0062 that we would have selected a sample mean of 14 from this

,o

population. The criterion we set in Step 2 was that the probability must be

less than 5% that we would obtain a sample mean if the null hypothesis

st

were true. Because p is less than 5%, we decide to reject the null hypoth-

esis that mean improvement in this population is equal to 12. Instead, we

po

found that the reading program significantly improved reading proficiency

scores more than 12 points. y,

FIGURE 8.7 Making a Decision for Example 8.2

op

FYI

The test statistic reaches

tc

conservative and eliminate the

the rejection region; reject

the null hypothesis.

no

error. One-tailed tests are associated

with greater power, assuming the

Rejection region

α = .05

o

Retain the null

false.

D

hypothesis

f-

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

oo

Null 2.50

Pr

Because the obtained value falls in the rejection region (it is beyond the critical value of 1.645), we

A Type III error is a type of error decide to reject the null hypothesis.

possible with one-tailed tests in

ft

which a decision would have been The decision in Example 8.2 was to reject the null hypothesis using a

ra

one-tailed test. One problem that can arise, however, is if scores go in the

the researcher decides to retain

the null hypothesis because the

opposite direction than what was predicted. In other words, for one-tailed

D

rejection region was located in the tests, it is possible in some cases to place the rejection region in the wrong

wrong tail. tail. Thus, we predict that scores will increase, and instead they decrease,

and vice versa. When we fail to reject a null hypothesis because we placed

The “wrong tail” refers to the

opposite tail from where a the rejection region in the wrong tail, we commit a type of error called a

difference was observed and would Type III error (Kaiser, 1960). We make a closer comparison of one-tailed

have otherwise been significant. and two-tailed hypothesis tests in the next section.

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Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 257

VERSUS NONDIRECTIONAL TESTS

e

Kruger and Savitsky (2006) conducted a study in which they performed two tests on the same data. They completed an upper-tail

ut

critical test at α = .05 and a two-tailed test at α = .10. As shown in Figure 8.8, these are similar tests, except in the upper-tail test,

all the alpha level is placed in the upper tail, and in the two-tailed test, the alpha level is split so that .05 is placed in each tail. When

rib

the researchers showed these results to a group of participants, they found that participants were more persuaded by a significant

result when it was described as a one-tailed test, p < .05, than when it was described as a two-tailed test, p < .10. This was interesting

t

because the two results were identical—both tests were associated with the same critical value in the upper tail.

is

rd

FIGURE 8.8 Placing the Rejection Region in One or Both Tails

,o

Upper tail critical test at a Two-tailed test at a .10

.05 level of significance level of significance

st

po

y,

op

tc

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

Null z = 1.645 z = −1.645 Null z = 1.645

no

o

for both tests

D

f-

When α = .05, all of that value is placed in the upper tail for an upper-tail critical test. The two-tailed equivalent would

require a test with α = .10, such that .05 is placed in each tail. Note that the normal distribution is symmetrical, so the cutoff

in the lower tail is the same distance below the mean (−1.645; the upper tail is +1.645).

oo

Pr

Most editors of peer-reviewed journals in behavioral research will not publish the results of a study where the level of significance

is greater than .05. Although the two-tailed test, p < .10, was significant, it is unlikely that the results would be published in a

peer-reviewed scientific journal. Reporting the same results as a one-tailed test, p < .05, makes it more likely that the data will be

ft

published.

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The two-tailed test is more conservative; it makes it more difficult to reject the null hypothesis. It also eliminates the possibility of

D

committing a Type III error. The one-tailed test, though, is associated with greater power. If the value stated in the null hypothesis is

false, then a one-tailed test will make it easier to detect this (i.e., lead to a decision to reject the null hypothesis). Because the one-

tailed test makes it easier to reject the null hypothesis, it is important that we justify that an outcome can occur in only one direction.

Justifying that an outcome can occur in only one direction is difficult for much of the data that behavioral researchers measure. For

this reason, most studies in behavioral research are two-tailed tests.

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258 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

LEARNING CHECK 5

1. Is the following set of hypotheses appropriate for a 3. A researcher conducts a hypothesis test and finds that

e

directional or a nondirectional hypothesis test? p = .0689. What is the decision for a hypothesis test at

ut

a .05 level of significance?

H0: µ = 35

4. Which type of test, one-tailed or two-tailed, is

rib

H1: µ ≠ 35

susceptible to the possibility of committing a Type III

2. A researcher conducts a one-sample z test. The z statistic error?

t

is

for the upper-tail critical test at a .05 level of significance is

zobt = 1.84. What is the decision for this test?

rd

Answers: 1. A nondirectional (two-tailed) test; 2. Reject the null hypothesis; 3. Retain the null hypothesis; 4. One-tailed tests.

,o

st

8.7 Measuring the Size of an Effect: Cohen’s d

po

A decision to reject the null hypothesis means that an effect is significant.

For a one-sample test, an effect is the difference between a sample mean

y,

and the population mean stated in the null hypothesis. In Examples 8.1

op

and 8.2 we found a significant effect, meaning that the sample mean was

significantly larger than the value stated in the null hypothesis. Hypothesis

testing identifies whether or not an effect exists in a population. When

tc

For a single sample, an effect is a sample mean would be likely to occur if the null hypothesis were true

the difference between a sample (p > .05), we decide that an effect does not exist in a population; the effect

no

mean and the population mean is not significant. When a sample mean would be unlikely to occur if the

stated in the null hypothesis. In

hypothesis testing, an effect is not

null hypothesis were true (typically less than a 5% likelihood, p < .05), we

decide that an effect does exist in a population; the effect is significant.

o

hypothesis; an effect is significant Hypothesis testing does not, however, inform us of how big the effect is.

D

when we reject the null hypothesis. To determine the size of an effect, we compute effect size. There are

two ways to calculate the size of an effect. We can determine

f-

measure of the size of an effect

1. how far scores shifted in the population, and

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researchers to describe how far 2. the percent of variance that can be explained by a given variable.

scores shifted in the population, or

Pr

explained by a given variable. Effect size is most meaningfully reported with significant effects when

the decision was to reject the null hypothesis. If an effect is not significant,

ft

Cohen’s d is a measure of effect as in instances when we retain the null hypothesis, then we are concluding

ra

size in terms of the number of that an effect does not exist in a population. It makes little sense to com-

standard deviations that mean pute the size of an effect that we just concluded does not exist. In this sec-

D

scores shifted above or below the tion, we describe how far scores shifted in the population using a measure

population mean stated by the null of effect size called Cohen’s d.

hypothesis. The larger the value

of d, the larger the effect in the Cohen’s d measures the number of standard deviations an effect is

population. shifted above or below the population mean stated by the null hypothesis.

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Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 259

The formula for Cohen’s d replaces the standard error in the denomina- FYI

tor of the test statistic with the population standard deviation (J. Cohen,

Hypothesis testing determines

1988):

whether or not an effect exists in a

M −µ population. Effect size measures the

Cohen’s d = .

σ size of an observed effect from small

e

to large.

ut

The value of Cohen’s d is zero when there is no difference between

two means, and it gets farther from zero as the difference gets larger. To

rib

interpret values of d, we refer to Cohen’s effect size conventions outlined

in Table 8.6. The sign of d indicates the direction of the shift. When values

t

of d are positive, an effect shifted above the population mean; when values

is

of d are negative, an effect shifted below the population mean.

rd

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TABLE 8.6 Cohen’s Effect Size Conventions

st

Description of Effect Effect Size (d)

d < 0.2

po

Small

y,

Large d > 0.8

op

In Example 8.3, we will determine the effect size for the research study in

tc

Example 8.2 to illustrate how significance and effect size can be interpreted

for the same set of data.

no

Example 8.3

o

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In Example 8.2, we tested if a reading program could effectively improve reading proficiency

scores in a group of elementary school children. Scores in the general population show

f-

our sample of children who took the reading program, mean proficiency scores improved by

oo

14 points. What is the effect size for this test using Cohen’s d?

The numerator for Cohen’s d is the difference between the sample mean (M = 14)

and the population mean (µ = 12). The denominator is the population standard

Pr

deviation (σ = 4):

M −µ 14 −12

d= = = 0.50.

ft

σ 4

ra

We conclude that the observed effect shifted 0.50 standard deviations above the mean in

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the population. This way of interpreting effect size is illustrated in Figure 8.9. For our example, Cohen’s effect size

we are stating that students in the reading program scored 0.50 standard deviations higher, conventions are standard rules

on average, than students in the general population. This interpretation is most meaningfully for identifying small, medium, and

reported when the decision was to reject the null hypothesis, as we did in Example 8.2. large effects based on typical

Table 8.7 compares the basic characteristics of hypothesis testing and effect size. findings in behavioral research.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

260 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

d = 0.50

e

Population distribution

ut

assuming the null is true

rib

µ = 12

σ=4

t

is

rd

,o

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

st

Population distribution

po

assuming the null is false—

with a 2-point effect

µ = 14

y,

σ=4

op

tc

2 6 10 14 18 22 26

no

Cohen’s d estimates the size of an effect in the population. A 2-point effect (14 − 12 = 2) shifted the

distribution of scores in the population by 0.50 standard deviations.

o

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TABLE 8.7

Effect Size

f-

Hypothesis

oo

Pr

ft

ra

What does the test The probability of obtaining The size of a measured

measure? a measured sample mean effect in the population

D

What can be inferred Whether an effect exists The size of an effect from

from the test? in a population small to large

Can this test stand alone Yes, the test statistic can No, effect size is almost

in research reports? be reported without an always reported with a

effect size test statistic

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Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 261

LEARNING CHECK 6

1. ________ measures the size of an effect in a population, researcher selects a sample of 36 students

e

whereas ______________ measures whether an effect and measures a sample mean equal to 23. For this

ut

exists in a population. example,

(a) What is the value of Cohen’s d?

rib

2. The scores for a population are normally distributed with

a mean equal to 25 and standard deviation equal to 6. A (b) Is this effect size small, medium, or large?

t

is

6

= −0.33 , (b) Medium effect size. Answers: 1. Effect size, hypothesis testing; 2. (a) d =

23 − 25

rd

,o

8.8 Effect Size, Power, and Sample Size

st

One advantage of knowing effect size, d, is that its value can be used to

po

determine the power of detecting an effect in hypothesis testing. The

likelihood of detecting an effect, called power, is critical in behavioral

research because it lets the researcher know the probability that a ran-

y,

domly selected sample will lead to a decision to reject the null hypothesis,

if the null hypothesis is false. In this section, we describe how effect size

op

tc

no

dom sample of quiz scores in two statistics classes shown in Table 8.8.

Notice that only the standard deviation differs between these populations.

o

Using the values given in Table 8.8, we already have enough information to

D

M −µ 40−38

f-

σ 10

oo

M −µ 40−38

Effect size for Class 2: d = = = 1.00.

σ 2

Pr

ft

ra

D

Class 1 Class 2

M1 = 40 M2 = 40

m1 = 38 m2 = 38

s1 = 10 s2 = 2

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

262 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

The numerator for each effect size estimate is the same. The mean dif-

ference between the sample mean and the population mean is 2 points.

Although there is a 2-point effect in both Class 1 and Class 2, Class 2 is

associated with a much larger effect size in the population because the

standard deviation is smaller. Because a larger effect size is associated

e

with greater power, we should find that it is easier to detect the 2-point

ut

effect in Class 2. To determine whether this is true, suppose we select a

sample of 30 students (n = 30) from each class and measure the same

rib

sample mean value that is listed in Table 8.8. Let us determine the power

of each test when we conduct an upper-tail critical test at a .05 level of

significance.

t

is

To determine the power, we will first construct the sampling distribu-

rd

tion for each class, with a mean equal to the population mean and stan-

s

dard error equal to :

n

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Sampling distribution for Class 1: Mean: µM = 38

st

σ 10

Standard error: = = 1.82

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n 30

y,

σ 2

Standard error: = = 0.37

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n 30

If the null hypothesis is true, then the sampling distribution of the mean

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for alpha (α), the type of error associated with a true null hypothesis, will

have a mean equal to 38. We can now determine the smallest value of the

no

sample mean that is the cutoff for the rejection region, where we decide

to reject that the true population mean is 38. For an upper-tail critical

test using a .05 level of significance, the critical value is 1.645. We can use

o

value is 1.645 standard deviations above 38 in a sampling distribution for

D

f-

M −38

Cutoff for α (Class 1): 1.645 =

1.82

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M = 40.99

M −38

Pr

0.37

M = 38.61

ft

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will reject the null hypothesis. If we obtain a sample mean equal to 38.61

or higher in Class 2, then we will reject the null hypothesis. To determine

D

the power for this test, we assume that the sample mean we selected

(M = 40) is the true population mean—we are therefore assuming that the

null hypothesis is false. We are asking the following question: If we are

correct and there is a 2-point effect, then what is the probability that we

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Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 263

will detect the effect? In other words, what is the probability that a sample

randomly selected from this population will lead to a decision to reject the

null hypothesis?

If the null hypothesis is false, then the sampling distribution of the mean

for β, the type of error associated with a false null hypothesis, will have

e

a mean equal to 40. This is what we believe is the true population mean,

ut

and this is the only change; we do not change the standard error. Figure

8.10 shows the sampling distribution for Class 1, and Figure 8.11 shows the

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sampling distribution for Class 2, assuming the null hypothesis is correct

(top graph) and assuming the 2-point effect exists (bottom graph).

t

If we are correct, and the 2-point effect exists, then we are much more

FYI

is

likely to detect the effect in Class 2 for n = 30. Class 1 has a small effect

rd

size (d = .20). Even if we are correct, and a 2-point effect does exist in this As the size of an effect increases,

population, then of all the samples of size 30 we could select from this the power to detect the effect also

population, only about 29% (power = .2946) will show the effect (i.e., lead increases.

,o

to a decision to reject the null). The probability of correctly rejecting the

null hypothesis (power) is low.

st

Class 2 has a large effect size (d = 1.00). If we are correct, and a 2-point

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effect does exist in this population, then of all the samples of size 30 we

could select from this population, nearly 100% (power = .9999) will show

the effect (i.e., lead to a decision to reject the null). The probability of cor-

y,

rectly rejecting the null hypothesis (power) is high.

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FIGURE 8.10 Small Effect Size and Low Power for Class 1

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no

µ = 38 occurrence, if the null is true.

SEM = 1.82 Probability of a Type I error = .05

n = 30

o

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f-

Sampling distribution

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assuming the null is false—

selected from this population will

with a 2-point effect

result in a decision to reject the

Pr

SEM = 1.82 Power = .2946

n = 30

ft

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40.99

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In this example, when alpha is .05, the critical value or cutoff for alpha is 40.99. When α = .05, notice that

only about 29% of samples will detect this effect (the power). So even if the researcher is correct, and

the null is false (with a 2-point effect), only about 29% of the samples he or she selects at random will

result in a decision to reject the null hypothesis.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

264 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

FIGURE 8.11 Large Effect Size and High Power for Class 2

Sampling distribution less than a 5% chance of

assuming the null is true occurrence, if the null is true.

e

µ = 38 Probability of a Type I error = .05

SEM = 0.37

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n = 30 Almost 100% of sample means

selected from this population

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will result in a decision to reject

36.89 37.26 37.63 38 38.37 38.74 39.11 the null, if the null is false.

Power = .9999

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Sampling distribution

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assuming the null is false—

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with a 2-point effect

µ = 40

SEM = 0.37

n = 30

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38.89 39.26 39.63 40 40.37 40.74 41.11

38.61

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In this example, when alpha is .05, the critical value or cutoff for alpha is 38.61. When α = .05, notice that practically any

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sample will detect this effect (the power). So if the researcher is correct, and the null is false (with a 2-point effect), nearly

100% of the samples he or she selects at random will result in a decision to reject the null hypothesis.

y,

The Relationship Between Sample Size and Power

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One common solution to overcome low effect size is to increase the sample

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power. To illustrate, we can compute the test statistic for the one-tailed

significance test for Class 1, which had a small effect size. The data for

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Class 1 are given in Table 8.8 for a sample of 30 participants. The test statistic

for Class 1 when n = 30 is

o

M −µ 40−38

zobt = = = 1.10.

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σ 10

FYI n 30

f-

Increasing sample size increases For a one-tailed test that is upper-tail critical, the critical value is

oo

power by reducing standard error, 1.645. The value of the test statistic (+1.10) does not exceed the critical

thereby increasing the value of the test value (+1.645), so we retain the null hypothesis.

statistic in hypothesis testing.

Pr

sample mean of M = 40. The test statistic for Class 1 when n = 100 is

ft

M −µ 40−38

zobt = σ

= 10

= 2.00.

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n 100

D

The critical value is still 1.645. The value of the test statistic (+2.00),

however, now exceeds the critical value (+1.645), so we reject the null

hypothesis.

Notice that increasing the sample size alone led to a decision to reject

the null hypothesis, despite testing for a small effect size in the population.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 265

that we will detect an effect, assuming that an effect exists in a given

population.

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LEARNING CHECK 7

ut

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1. As effect size increases, what happens to 4. True or false: The effect size, power, and sample size of

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the power? a study can affect the decisions we make in hypothesis

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testing.

2. As effect size decreases, what happens to

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the power?

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what can a researcher do to increase the power of the

study?

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Answers: 1. Power increases; 2. Power decreases; 3. Increase the sample size (n); 4. True.

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y,

8.9 Additional Factors That Increase Power

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often requires a great deal of time and money to select, observe, measure,

and analyze data. For this reason, the institutions that offer substantial

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funding for research studies want to know that they are spending their

money wisely and that researchers conduct studies that will show results.

Consequently, to receive a research grant, researchers are often required

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to state the likelihood that they will detect an effect they are studying,

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assuming they are correct. In other words, researchers must disclose the

power of their studies.

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The typical standard for power is .80. Researchers try to make sure

that at least 80% of the samples they select will show an effect when an

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effect size and sample size increases power. In this section, we introduce

Pr

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Increasing effect size, sample size, and the alpha level will increase power.

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Section 8.8 showed that increasing effect size and sample size increases

power; here we discuss increasing alpha. The alpha level is the probability

of a Type I error, and it is the rejection region for a hypothesis test. The

larger the rejection region, the greater the likelihood of rejecting the null

hypothesis, and the greater the power will be. Hence, increasing the size

of the rejection region in the upper tail in Example 8.2 (by placing all of the

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

266 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

FYI rejection region in one tail) increased the power of that hypothesis test.

Similarly, increasing alpha will increase the size of the rejection region,

To increase power, increase

thereby increasing power. That being said, it is widely accepted that alpha

effect size, sample size, and alpha;

can never be stated at a value larger than .05. Simply increasing alpha

decrease beta, population standard

is not a practical solution to increase power. Instead, the more practical

deviation, and standard error.

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solutions are to increase sample size, or structure your study to observe a

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large effect between groups.

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Increasing Power: Decrease Beta,

Standard Deviation (σ), and Standard Error

t

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Decreasing beta error (β) increases power. In Table 8.3, β is given as the

probability of a Type II error, and 1 − β is given as the power. So the lower

rd

β is, the greater the solution will be for 1 − β. For example, say β = .20. In

this case, 1 − β = (1 − .20) = .80. If we decrease β, say, to β = .10, the power

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will increase: 1 − β = (1 − .10) = .90. Hence, decreasing beta error increases

power.

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Decreasing the population standard deviation (σ) and standard error

(σM) will also increase power. The population standard deviation is the

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numerator for computing standard error. Decreasing the population stan-

dard deviation will decrease the standard error, thereby increasing the

value of the test statistic. To illustrate, suppose that we select a sample

y,

from a population of students with quiz scores equal to 10 ± 8 (µ ± σ). We

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select a sample of 16 students from this population and measure a sample

mean equal to 12. In this example, the standard error is

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σ 8

σM = = = 2.00.

n 16

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To compute the z statistic, we subtract the sample mean from the pop-

ulation mean and divide by the standard error:

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M −µ 12−10

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zobt = = = 1.00.

σM 2

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An obtained value equal to 1.00 does not exceed the critical value for a one-

tailed test (critical value = 1.645) or a two-tailed test (critical values = ±1.96).

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If the population standard deviation is smaller, the standard error will

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be smaller, thereby making the value of the test statistic larger. Suppose,

for example, that we reduce the population standard deviation to 4. The

ft

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σ 4

σM = = = 1.0.

n 16

D

To compute the z statistic, we subtract the sample mean from the pop-

ulation mean and divide by this smaller standard error:

M −µ 12−10

zobt = = = 2.00.

σM 1

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 267

An obtained value equal to 2.00 does exceed the critical value for

a one-tailed test (critical value = 1.645) and a two-tailed test (critical

values = ±1.96). Now the decision is to reject the null hypothesis. Assuming

that an effect exists in the population, decreasing the population standard

deviation decreases standard error and increases the power to detect an

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effect. Table 8.9 lists each factor that increases power.

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A Summary of Factors That Increase Power (the probability of

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TABLE 8.9 rejecting a false null hypothesis)

t

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To Increase Power:

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Increase Decrease

d (Effect size) β (Type II error)

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n (Sample size) σ (Standard deviation)

α (Type I error) σM (Standard error)

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8.10 SPSS in Focus: A Preview

for Chapters 9 to 18

y,

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As discussed in Section 8.5, it is rare that we know the value of the popula-

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mon that there is no (direct) way to compute a z test in SPSS, although

SPSS can be used to compute all other test statistics described in this

no

book. For each analysis, SPSS provides output analyses that indicate the

significance of a hypothesis test and the information needed to compute

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tical software that can be used to compute nearly any statistic or measure

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used in behavioral research. For this reason, many researchers use SPSS

software to analyze their data.

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To report the results of a z test, we report the test statistic, p value (stated to no more than the thousandths place), and effect size of a

hypothesis test. Here is how we could report the significant result for the z statistic in Example 8.2:

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Children in the reading program showed significantly greater improvement (M = 14) in reading proficiency

scores compared to expected improvement in the general population (µ = 12), z = 2.50, p = .006 (d = 0.50).

(Continued)

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

268 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

(Continued)

Notice that when we report a result, we do not state that we reject or retain the null hypothesis. Instead, we report whether

a result is significant (the decision was to reject the null hypothesis) or not significant (the decision was to retain the null

hypothesis). Also, you are not required to report the exact p value, although it is recommended. An alternative is to report it in

e

terms of p < .05, p < .01, or p < .001. In our example, we could state p < .01 for a p value actually equal to .0062.

ut

Finally, notice that the means are also listed in the summary of the data. Often we can also report standard deviations, which is

rib

recommended by the APA. An alternative would be to report the means in a figure or table to illustrate a significant effect, with

error bars given in a figure to indicate the standard error of the mean (an example of displaying standard error in a figure is given in

t

Chapter 7, Section 7.8). In this way, we can report the value of the test statistic, p value, effect size, means, standard deviations, and

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standard error all in one sentence and a figure or table.

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Chapter Summary

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LO 1: Identify the four steps of hypothesis actual value of a population param-

testing. eter, such as the mean, is less than,

y, greater than, or not equal to the

• Hypothesis testing, or significance

testing, is a method of testing a claim value stated in the null hypothesis.

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a population, using data measured in judgment upon which a decision is

tc

hypothesis by determining the likeli- null hypothesis. The criterion is based

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selected if the hypothesis regarding tic measured in a sample if the value

the population parameter were true. stated in the null hypothesis were true.

o

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Step 1: State the hypotheses. determine the likelihood or proba-

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Step 2: Set the criteria for a decision. bility of obtaining sample outcomes

if the null hypothesis were true. The

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value of a test statistic can be used

Step 4: Make a decision. to make inferences concerning the

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hypothesis, level of significance, stated in the null hypothesis.

test statistic, p value, and statistical • A p value is the probability of obtaining

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• The null hypothesis (H0) is a state- stated in the null hypothesis is true.

The p value of a sample outcome is

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such as the population mean, that is compared to the level of significance.

assumed to be true. • Significance, or statistical signifi-

• The alternative hypothesis (H1) is a cance, describes a decision made

statement that directly contradicts concerning a value stated in the null

a null hypothesis by stating that the hypothesis. When a null hypothesis

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Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 269

When a null hypothesis is retained, a hypothesis. So we are interested in

result is not significant. any alternative to the null hypothesis.

LO 3: Define Type I error and Type II error, • Directional (one-tailed) tests are

and identify the type of error that hypothesis tests in which the alter-

e

researchers control. native hypothesis is stated as greater

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than (>) or less than (<) a value stated

• We can decide to retain or reject a

in the null hypothesis. So we are

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null hypothesis, and this decision

interested in a specific alternative to

can be correct or incorrect. Two

the null hypothesis.

types of errors in hypothesis testing

t

• A Type III error is a type of error pos-

is

are called Type I and Type II errors.

sible with one-tailed tests in which

• A Type I error is the probability of

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a result would have been signifi-

rejecting a null hypothesis that is actu-

cant in one tail, but the researcher

ally true. The probability of this type of

retains the null hypothesis because

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error is determined by the researcher

the rejection region was placed in the

and stated as the level of significance

wrong or opposite tail.

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or alpha level for a hypothesis test.

• A Type II error is the probability of LO 6: Elucidate effect size and compute

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retaining a null hypothesis that is a Cohen’s d for the one-sample z

actually false. y, test.

• Effect size is a statistical measure

LO 4: Calculate the one-sample z test and

of the size of an observed effect in a

interpret the results.

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population, which allows research-

• The one-sample z test is a statistical ers to describe how far scores shifted

procedure used to test hypotheses

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concerning the mean in a single pop- variance that can be explained by a

ulation with a known variance. The given variable.

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• Cohen’s d is used to measure how

M −µ σ far scores shifted in a population

zobt = , where σM = .

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ing formula:

• Critical values, which mark the cut-

f-

Cohen’s d = .

σ

identified for any level of signifi-

oo

is compared to the critical values. • To interpret the size of an effect, we

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When the value of a test statistic refer to Cohen’s effect size conven-

exceeds a critical value, we reject the tions, which are standard rules for

null hypothesis; otherwise, we retain identifying small, medium, and large

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LO 5: Distinguish between a one-tailed test tions are given in Table 8.6.

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Type III error is possible only with one- LO 7: Define power and identify six factors

tailed tests. that influence power.

• Nondirectional (two-tailed) tests are • In hypothesis testing, power is the

hypothesis tests in which the alter- probability that a sample selected

native hypothesis is stated as not at random will show that the null

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

270 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

hypothesis is indeed false. z test in APA format.

• To increase the power of detecting an • To report the results of a z test, we

effect in a given population: report the test statistic, p value,

a. Increase effect size (d), sample and effect size of a hypothesis test.

e

size (n), and alpha (α). In addition, a figure or table can be

ut

b. Decrease beta error (β), popula- used to summarize the means and

standard error or standard deviation

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tion standard deviation (σ), and

standard error (σM). measured in a study.

t

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Key Terms

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alpha (α) level hypothesis testing significance

alternative hypothesis (H1) level of significance significance level

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beta (β) error nondirectional tests significance testing

Cohen’s d null hypothesis (H0) statistical significance

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Cohen’s effect size conventions obtained value test statistic

critical value one-sample z test two-tailed tests

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directional tests one-tailed tests Type I error

effect p value Type II error

effect size power Type III error

y,

hypothesis rejection region z statistic

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End-of-Chapter Problems

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Factual Problems

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1. State the four steps of hypothesis testing. 8. How are the rejection regions, the probability

of a Type I error, the level of significance, and

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the alpha level related?

makes in hypothesis testing?

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3. What is a Type I error (α)?

sions concerning true null hypotheses. What is

f-

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5. What is the power in hypothesis testing? 10. What three factors can be increased to increase

power?

6. What are the critical values for a one-sample

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nondirectional (two-tailed) z test at a .05 level 11. What three factors can be decreased to

of significance? increase power?

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7. Explain why a one-tailed test is associated 12. Distinguish between the significance and the

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D

13. Explain why the following statement is true: 14. A researcher conducts a hypothesis test and

The population standard deviation is always concludes that his hypothesis is correct.

larger than the standard error when the sam- Explain why this conclusion is never an appro-

ple size is greater than one (n > 1). priate decision in hypothesis testing.

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Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 271

15. The weight (in pounds) for a population of 20. For each obtained value stated below, (1) what

school-aged children is normally distributed is the decision for each if α = .05 (one-tailed

with a mean equal to 135 ± 20 pounds (µ ± σ). test, upper-tail critical), and (2) what is the

Suppose we select a sample of 100 children decision for each if α = .01 (two-tailed test)?

(n = 100) to test whether children in this pop- (a) zobt = 2.10

e

ulation are gaining weight at a .05 level of

(b) zobt = 1.70

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significance.

(c) zobt = 2.75

(a) What is the null hypothesis? What is the

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alternative hypothesis? (d) zobt = −3.30

(b) What is the critical value for this test? 21. Will each of the following increase, decrease,

t

or have no effect on the value of a test statistic

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(c) What is the mean of the sampling

distribution? for the one-sample z test?

rd

(d) What is the standard error of the mean for (a) The sample size is increased.

the sampling distribution? (b) The population variance is decreased.

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16. A researcher selects a sample of 30 partici (c) The sample variance is doubled.

pants and makes the decision to retain the (d) The difference between the sample mean

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null hypothesis. She conducts the same study and population mean is decreased.

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testing the same hypothesis with a sample of

22. The physical fitness score for a population of

300 participants and makes the decision to

police officers at a local police station is 72,

reject the null hypothesis. Give a likely expla-

with a standard deviation of 7 on a 100-point

nation for why the two samples led to different

y,

physical endurance scale. Suppose the police

decisions.

chief selects a sample of 49 local police offi-

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17. A researcher conducts a one-sample z test and cers from this population and records a mean

makes the decision to reject the null hypothesis. physical fitness rating on this scale equal to

tc

Another researcher selects a larger sample 74. He conducts a one-sample z test to deter-

from the same population, obtains the same mine whether physical endurance increased at

no

sample mean, and makes the decision to retain a .05 level of significance.

the null hypothesis using the same hypothesis (a) State the value of the test statistic and

test. Is this possible? Explain. whether to retain or reject the null

o

D

hypothesis test in each of the following popu- (b) Compute effect size using Cohen’s d.

lations given the specified standard error and

f-

critical values. Hint: Refer to the values given

(out of 100 possible points) of 75 ± 12 (µ ± σ) in

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in Table 8.4:

competitions over the previous three seasons.

(a) µ = 100, σM = 8, critical values: 84.32 and The same cheerleading squad performed in

115.68

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(b) µ = 100, σM = 6, critical value: 113.98 rating equal to 78 in competitions. Suppose

(c) µ = 100, σM = 4, critical value: 86.8 we conduct a one-sample z test to determine

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19. For each p value stated below, (1) what is the (compared to the previous three seasons) at a

decision for each if α = .05, and (2) what is the .05 level of significance.

D

(a) State the value of the test statistic and

(a) p = .1000 whether to retain or reject the null

(b) p = .0250 hypothesis.

(c) p = .0050 (b) Compute effect size using Cohen’s d and

(d) p = .0001 state whether it is small, medium, or large.

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

272 Part III: Making Inferences About One or Two Means

24. A local school reports that the average GPA 26. Compute effect size and state whether it is

in the entire school is a mean score of 2.66, small, medium, or large for a 1-point effect

with a standard deviation of 0.40. The school (M − µ = 1) given the following population stan-

announces that it will be introducing a new dard deviations:

program designed to improve GPA scores at (a) σ = 1

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the school. What is the effect size (d) for this

(b) σ = 2

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program if it is expected to improve GPA by:

(c) σ = 4

(a) 0 .05 points?

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(d) σ = 6

(b) 0.10 points?

(c) 0.40 points? 27. As α increases, so does the power to detect an

t

effect. Why, then, do we restrict α from being

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25. Will each of the following increase, decrease, larger than .05?

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or have no effect on the value of Cohen’s d?

28. Will increasing sample size (n) increase or

(a) The sample size is decreased.

decrease the value of standard error? Will this

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(b) The population variance is increased. increase or decrease power?

(c) The sample variance is reduced.

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(d) The difference between the sample and

population mean is increased.

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Problems in Research y,

29. Directional versus nondirectional hypothesis you had examined the data” (p. 347). Why do

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testing. Cho and Abe (2013) provided a com- the authors state this as a concern for one-

mentary on the appropriate use of one-tailed tailed tests?

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31. The value of a p value. In a critical commen-

their discussion, they outlined the following

tary on the use of significance testing, Charles

hypothetical null and alternative hypotheses

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to test a research hypothesis that males self-

‘significant,’ then a p = .067 result is not ‘mar-

disclose more than females:

ginally significant’” (p. 76). Explain what the

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H1: mmales − mfemales > 0

32. Describing the z test. In an article describing

f-

(a) What type of test is set up with these hypothesis testing with small sample sizes,

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hypotheses, a directional test or a nondi- Collins and Morris (2008) provided the follow-

rectional test? ing description for a z test: “Z is considered sig-

nificant if the difference is more than roughly

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bilities for the population mean? Explain. two standard deviations above or below zero

(or more precisely, |Z| > 1.96)” (p. 464). Based

30. The one-tailed tests. In their book, Common

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on this description,

Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them),

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Good and Hardin (2003) wrote, “No one will

for a one-tailed z test or a two-tailed z test?

know whether your [one-tailed] hypothesis

D

was conceived before you started or only after (b) What alpha level are the authors referring to?

This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing 273

33. Sample size and power. Collins and Morris hypothesis regarding real math difficulties

(2008) simulated selecting thousands of among children. In their study, the authors

samples and analyzed the results using many concluded: “Our hypothesis [regarding

different test statistics. With regard to the math difficulties] was confirmed” (p. 429).

power for these samples, they reported that In this example, what decision did the

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“generally speaking, all tests became more authors make: Retain or reject the null

ut

powerful as sample size increased” (Collins & hypothesis?

Morris, 2008, p. 468). How did increasing the

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sample size in this study increase power?

Answers for even numbers are in Appendix D.

34. Making decisions in hypothesis testing. Toll,

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Kroesbergen, and Van Luit (2016) tested their

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SAGE edge for Students provides a personalized approach to help you accomplish

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your coursework goals in an easy-to-use learning environment. Visit edge.sagepub

.com/priviterastats3e to access study tools including eFlashcards, web quizzes, video

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resources, web resources, SAGE journal articles, and more.

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tc

no

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D

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This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher.

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