To: Missouri Rising Action

From: Jim McLaughlin & Stuart Polk

Re: Missouri U.S. Senate Race – Recent Public Polls
Date: May 1, 2018

Like Missouri Rising Action’s poll, all of the recent Independent polls confirm the U.S. Senate
race between Claire McCaskill and Josh Hawley will be one of the most hotly contested races in
the country in 2018. Missouri Rising Action’s poll in December 2017 had a very tight race within
the margin of error (46% McCaskill to 43% Hawley). The average of the recent independent
polls has the race in a statistical tie. The most recent poll by Emerson College has the race
deadlocked at 45%. Besides being too close to call, the one thing each poll has in common is
Claire McCaskill is under the 50% ballot threshold, which is a sign of vulnerability for an
incumbent. Clearly, Josh Hawley has an opportunity to pick up a seat for the Republicans in the
U.S. Senate in a state that Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 19-points (57% to 38%).

Latest Independent Public Polls

Source Date McCaskill (D) Hawley (R) Net
Average 46.0 44.3 McCaskill +2.3
Emerson College Apr. 26-29 45 45 Tie
Missouri Scout Apr. 19-20 48 44 McCaskill +4
Mason Dixon Apr. 4-6 45 44 McCaskill +1

OnMessageInc, the firm conducting Josh Hawley’s polling, released a recent poll showing the
race in a statistical tie with Josh Hawley up 1-point on Claire McCaskill (47% to 46%).

Source Date McCaskill (D) Hawley (R) Net

OnMessageInc Apr.16-18 46 47 Hawley +1

 “Missouri’s U.S. Senate race will be one of the most watched elections during the 2018 cycle
and the hype appears to be justified.” (Independent polling firm Mason-Dixon April Poll
Release)

 CNN listed Missouri as the top U.S. Senate seat to flip from Democrat to Republican. (“The
10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2018” by CNN’s Eric Bradner)

 Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales (Nonpartisan Analysis) lists the Missouri U.S. Senate
race as a “Toss-Up”.