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www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/171/2010/ Natural Hazards

© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under and Earth

the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. System Sciences

T. Wahl, J. Jensen, and T. Frank

Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Germany

Received: 27 July 2009 – Revised: 4 January 2010 – Accepted: 17 January 2010 – Published: 1 February 2010

Abstract. In this paper, a methodology to analyse observed et al., 2009a, b). In contrast, the mean sea level (MSL) and

sea level rise (SLR) in the German Bight, the shallow south- its variability over the last centuries in the German North Sea

eastern part of the North Sea, is presented. The paper fo- area have not been analysed in detail up to now. This is sur-

cuses on the description of the methods used to generate and prising, because many long and continuous sea level time

analyse mean sea level (MSL) time series. Parametric fitting series are available (Wahl et al., 2008). Some studies consid-

approaches as well as non-parametric data adaptive filters, ered time series from a very small number of tide gauges

such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) are applied. For and high resolution data sets have not been used or not

padding non-stationary sea level time series, an advanced ap- been available (e.g. Dietrich, 1954; Jensen and Mudersbach,

proach named Monte-Carlo autoregressive padding (MCAP) 2007). Furthermore, various projects dealing with mean tidal

is introduced. This approach allows the specification of un- conditions, e.g. the mean tidal high waters (MHW) or the

certainties of the behaviour of smoothed time series near the mean tidal ranges (MTR), have been conducted so far (e.g.,

boundaries. As an example, the paper includes the results Führböter and Jensen, 1985; Töppe and Brockmann, 1992;

from analysing the sea level records of the Cuxhaven tide Gönnert et al., 2004). Most of the available sea level records

gauge and the Heligoland tide gauge, both located in the consist of high and low water heights and times (from here

south-eastern North Sea. For comparison, the results from on referred to as high and low waters), which are not directly

analysing a worldwide sea level reconstruction are also pre- applicable for MSL analyses. The simple averaging of high

sented. The results for the North Sea point to a weak negative and low waters leads to the mean tide level (MTL) and not

acceleration of SLR since 1844 with a strong positive accel- to the MSL. The latter can be estimated by averaging high

eration at the end of the 19th century, to a period of almost no resolution sea level data consisting of at least hourly mea-

SLR around the 1970s with subsequent positive acceleration surements. The difference between MSL and MTL is small

and to high recent rates. in most areas (e.g., Pugh, 2004; Wöppelmann et al., 2006),

but up to more than 20 cm along the German North Sea coast-

line due to shallow water effects (Lassen, 1989). This has to

be considered when generating and analysing mean sea level

1 Introduction

time series. In addition, some differences between observa-

Sea Level Rise (SLR) is one of the major consequences we tions and model results, often referred to as “negative sea

are facing in times of a warming climate and it is obvious that level budget” (e.g., Church et al., 2008), have not been com-

a higher sea level influences the heights of occurring storm pletely understood up to now. All the more important is the

surges and thus results in a higher risk of inundation for the proper analysis of available data sets from tide gauges and in

affected coastal areas. Therefore, regional and global sea the recent past also from satellites.

level rise are subjects to many recent scientific publications The present paper has three main objectives. The first one

(e.g., White et al., 2005; Jevrejeva et al., 2006; Wöppelmann is to introduce a method which is easy to apply to combine

et al., 2006; Holgate, 2007; Church et al., 2008; Woodworth MSL and MTL data. The second one is to introduce an ad-

vanced method for padding or extrapolating time series be-

fore applying any smoothing technique to find the optimal

Correspondence to: T. Wahl fit. The third one is to analyse sea level records from two

(thomas.wahl@uni-siegen.de) tide gauges in the German North Sea.

172 T. Wahl et al.: On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844

To address the first objective, a modification of the so narios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

called k-factor method is introduced in Sect. 2 (Lassen, 1989; Change (IPCC) (Meehl et al., 2007) are subject to an exten-

Lentz, 1879; Wahl et al., 2008). This modification allows sive scientific discussion. Some authors find hints from ob-

the consideration of non-stationarities in k-factor time series, servations or semi-empirical models that the scenarios might

where the k-factor is subsequently used to convert MTL to underestimate future SLR (Rahmstorf, 2007; Rahmstorf et

MSL. Based upon the resulting MSL time series, long-term al., 2007; Jevrejeva et al., 2008; Grinsted et al., 2009). It has

trend estimations are possible and smoothing techniques can to be noted, that the results from semi-empirical models, us-

be applied without leading to gaps. The latter usually occurs, ing empirical relationships between temperature and SLR to

if time series consisting of MSL and MTL data are analysed estimate future projections, are also lively discussed by the

without applying any methods to combine both variables. In scientific community (e.g. Holgate et al., 2007; von Storch

addition, a shift of up to more than 20 cm somewhere in the et al., 2008). Second, and even more important, it has to be

time series certainly leads to significant errors and misinter- tested whether a significant correlation exists between SLR

pretations when performing long-term trend estimations. It in the German North Sea region and global SLR.

is worth noting that sea level time series from the German

North Sea area show high variability because the major part

of the sea level is influenced by stochastic meteorological

processes (Müller-Navarra and Giese, 1999). Therefore, it is 2 Data and methods

not always possible to detect shifts of ten to twenty centime-

tres just by looking at the time series.

Figure 1 shows the location of the Cuxhaven tide gauge and

As mentioned above, the second objective of the paper is

the Heligoland tide gauge in the south-eastern North Sea.

to introduce an advanced method for padding time series be-

The Cuxhaven station is located at the Elbe estuary and pro-

fore applying any smoothing technique. Whenever smooth-

vides permanent sea level data from 1844 to 2008. From the

ing a time series, one has two opportunities. The first one is

beginning of the record until 1918 only high and low waters

to start and stop the smoothing at a specified time (depend-

are available and afterwards high resolution data with at least

ing on the chosen window length) before reaching the ends of

hourly values. The Heligoland station is installed in the har-

the original time series. For example a moving average with a

bour of the island of Heligoland (Rohde, 1990), which is lo-

window length of 19 years usually starts 9 years later than the

cated about 62 kilometres north-westerly of the Elbe Estuary.

original time series and ends 9 years earlier. The second op-

Due to its exposed location in the deep water, the tide gauge

portunity, which is increasingly applied in combination with

provides almost unaffected sea level measurements and the

the analysis of climate time series, is to find some meaning-

tide curves are less deformed. High resolution data is pro-

ful extrapolation from a physical point of view, before ap-

vided since 1953, with a period from 1990 to 1999 where

plying any smoothing technique. This enables the smoothed

only high and low waters are available.

time series to cover the same period as the original time se-

ries. The method presented in this paper, namely Monte- Both data sets were corrected for local datum shifts and

Carlo autoregressive padding (MCAP), results in a very data for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) by considering a rate of

adaptive smooth and allows the specification of uncertainties land subsidence of 0.34 mm a−1 for the Cuxhaven sea level

near the boundaries due to the padding. Especially the latter time series and of 0.51 mm a−1 for the Heligoland sea level

is not the case with any other common techniques (e.g., Ghil time series (Peltier, 2004). GIA is a global process in re-

et al., 2002; Mann, 2004; Jevrejeva et al., 2006; Jansen et al., sponse to large scale changes in the surface mass load result-

2007; Trenberth et al., 2007; Mann, 2008). But, to under- ing from the last deglaciation. The effect of GIA (rebound

stand recent SLR and to find projections for the near future, or subsidence) is usually assumed to be linear, at least over

especially the behaviour of the time series near the posterior the last couple of hundred years. Other geological effects

boundary is important. may also contribute to land subsidence or rebound (e.g. tec-

The third objective is addressed by presenting the results tonics, volcanic activity, withdraw of natural resources etc.),

from analysing sea level records from two important tide but GIA is the only one assessable through numerical mod-

gauges in the German North Sea. The Cuxhaven tide gauge els. The sum of all the other effects can be measured via

provides the longest record with data since 1844. The He- GPS, whereas the GPS station should be located near the tide

ligoland tide gauge provides high quality data due to its ex- gauge. Such measurements will contribute to the uncertainty

posed location (see Sect. 2). In a further step, the results from reduction in further studies (Schöne et al., 2009) (see also

analysing the North Sea sea level time series are compared to Sect. 4).

global patterns of SLR derived from analysing a global sea To combine the MSL time series resulting from the high

level reconstruction. The results contribute to the verifica- resolution data and the MTL time series resulting from the

tion of regional climate models and provide indications of low resolution data, a monthly k-factor time series k(t) is

SLR for regional and local planning issues. This seems to estimated. The dimensionless k-factor is a reference value

be of special importance. First, the most recent SLR sce- for the difference between MSL and MTL and calculated for

491 Figures 494 Fig. 1. Locations of the tide gauges Cuxhaven and Heligol

492 T. Wahl et al.: On analysing sea level rise in the German 495

Bight since 1844 173

60oN

(a) (b)

100 100

SLR [mm]

0 0

5 8oN

-100 -100

Observation AR1 model result

5 6oN (c) (d)

100 400

SLR [mm]

0 200

54oN

-100 0

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

52 oN

496 Time [a] Time [a]

50 oN

497 Fig.

Fig. 2. Steps

2. Steps of MCAP:of MCAP: (a)annual

(a) detrended detrended

Cuxhaven annual

MSL timeCuxhaven

series, (b) result of the AR1 Model, two times the chosen embed-

498 AR1

ding Model,longer

dimension twothan

timesthe the chosen

observed time embedding dimension l

series, (c) padded

detrended annual Cuxhaven MSL time series, using the ends of the

48 N o

499

o

12 E

(c) padded

result of the AR1detrended annual

model, (d) padded Cuxhaven

annual MSLtime

Cuxhaven MSL time series

493 4 oW

0o 4oE

o

8E series with long term-trend of the observed time series re-included.

500 AR1(b) model,

Steps (d) padded

to (d) are repeated annual

10 000 times throughCuxhaven MSL time

Monte Carlo Sim-

Fig. 1. Locations of the tide gauges Cuxhaven and Heligoland in ulations.

494 Fig.

the 1. Locations

south-eastern of the tide gauges Cuxhaven501

North Sea. and observed in

Heligoland time

theseries re-included.

south-eastern NorthSteps

Sea. (b) to (d) are rep

502 Carlo

ing MTLSimulations.

values. Equation (3) considers a time dependent

495 the time period providing high resolution data using Eq. (1) k-factor:

(Lassen, 1989): 503

(a) (b) MSL(t) = MTR(t) · (0.5 − k(t)) + MTL(t), (3)

(MHW(t) − MSL(t))

100 100

SLR [mm]

k(t) = , (1) where the variables are the same as in Eq. (2) and k(t) is the

MTR(t)

0 0

time dependent k-factor.

where

-100 MHW(t) is the monthly-100 mean high water, MSL(t) is Once a consistent MSL time series has been generated,

the monthly mean sea level and MTR(t)

Observation AR1 is theresult

model monthly mean different methods can be used to analyse the long-term

tidal range. For the German North Sea coastline, k-factors and recent linear and non-linear behaviour. Parametric ap-

(c) (d)

are100

found to vary between 0.43400 and 0.49. A k-factor of 0.5 proaches provide the advantage of allowing extrapolation

SLR [mm]

means that the tide curve has a perfect sinusoidal form and into the future, whereas data adaptive non-linear methods are

0 200

that MSL equals MTL. valuable to detect inflection points and periods of remarkably

Before combining MSL and MTL

-100 0 time series, it has to be high or low rates of SLR.

tested whether the k-factor is a stationary parameter for the To analyse MSL time series, the following computational

1850gauge

investigated 1900 1950 2000

station or2050

whether1850 1900 non-stationary

it shows 1950 2000 2050

496 Time [a] Time [a] steps are conducted: a first order polynomial function, a sec-

behaviour. Therefore, two tests on stationarity are applied to ond order polynomial function and an exponential function

the monthly k-factor time series. The first one is a sliding-

497 Fig. 2. Steps of MCAP: (a) detrended annual Cuxhaven are fittedMSL

to the time series,The

time series. (b)fitresult of the

providing thesmallest

window test with a window length of one year to account mean-squared error (MSE) is selected and its 95% confi-

498 AR1

for Model,

possible two times

seasonality the chosen

(Mudersbach embedding

and Jensen, dimension

2008; van longerare

dence bounds than the observed

specified. timedecadal

Overlapping series,rates and

Gelder, 2008). The second test is a two-dimensional non- relating 95% confidence bounds are estimated. To determine

499 (c) padded

parametric detrended annual

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test Cuxhaven

(Chen and Rao, MSL

2002;time the

series, usingbehaviour

non-linear the ends of time

of the the series,

resulta moving

of the average

Mudersbach and Jensen, 2008). If the k-factor is found to (MA) and Singular System Analysis (SSA) (Golyandina et

500 AR1

be model,

stationary, (d) padded

a monthly MSL time annual Cuxhaven

series can MSL time series with long term-trend of the

be easily esti- al., 2001) are applied. The window length of the MA and the

mated with Eq. (2):

501 observed time series re-included. Steps (b) to (d) are repeated

embedding 10,000of times

dimension the SSAthrough Monte

are set equal (hereinafter

MSL(t) = MTR(t) · (0.5 − k) + MTL(t), (2) embedding dimension is used to describe both). The default

502 Carlo Simulations. value is N/5, which is the lower boundary value proposed for

where MSL(t) is the monthly mean sea level, MTR(t) is the embedding dimension by Golyandina et al. (2001) and N

503 the monthly mean tidal range, k is the mean k-factor esti- is the number of years of observation.

mated from the time period providing high resolution data For padding the time series a novel approach named

and MTL(t) is the monthly mean tide level. If the k-factor Monte-Carlo autoregressive padding (MCAP) is introduced.

shows non-stationary behaviour, a first or higher order poly- MCAP leads to a data adaptive smooth and additionally

nomial fit has to be applied and extrapolated before correct- provides uncertainty assessment for the behaviour of the

17

www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/171/2010/ Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 171–179, 2010

174 T. Wahl et al.: On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844

smoothed time series near the boundaries. The first step of (a) (b)

MCAP includes the detrending of the original time series 150

(see Fig. 2a) using the first order polynomial fit 100

50

y(t) = α · t + β, (4) 0

where α represents the linear trend of the time series. In a -50

SLR [mm]

second step a specified number (default value is 10 000) of 1960 1970 1980 1940 1950 1960

surrogate data sets is generated (see Fig. 2b) using an AR1 (c) (d)

model of the form 80

zt = θ · zt−1 + εt , (5) 40

noise process (Box and Jenkins, 1976). The surrogates are

-40

two times the chosen embedding dimension longer than the 1925 1930 1935 1940 1905 1910 1915 1920

original time series. The first and the last parts (always one Time [a]

sets are used for padding the detrended original time series

(see Fig. 2c). Note, that the ends of the surrogates display

more or less strong positive or negative trends. In the last

504

step, the long-term linear trend of the observed time series

(see Eq. 4) is re-included (see Fig. 2d). The trend of the Fig. 3. Comparison of different methods for padding time series.

505

padded time series differs slightly from the trend of the orig- Results3.areComparison

Fig. of different

shown for the posterior boundarymethods

of truncatedfor padding tim

inter-

inal time series. This implies that the long-term trend of the vals of the annual MSL time series of the Cuxhaven gauge station:

investigated sea level time series will not change dramati-506 posterior

(a) the 1844 toboundary

1980 interval,of

(b)truncated intervals

the 1844 to 1960 ofthethe annual

interval, (c)

1844 to 1940 interval and (d) the 1844 to 1920 interval.

cally within the next few decades. Figure 2 shows the results

507 gauge station: (a) the 1844 to 1980 interval, (b) the 18

of the different steps of MCAP for the Cuxhaven time series.

The steps shown in Fig. 2b to Fig. 2d are repeated 10508 000 1940 interval

The tide gauge and (d)from

records theCuxhaven

1844 toand

1920 interval.

Heligoland are

times through Monte Carlo Simulations. The result is a set used here to represent patterns of SLR in the German North

of 10 000 surrogates. The latter are two times the chosen em-

bedding dimension (or as default: two times N /5) longer 509

Sea area. This seems to be justified, because both stations

than play an important role for sea level observation in the Ger-

the original time series and show varying long-term trends man North Sea and different authors proved that a very small

due to the padding. number of long andrate

high-quality tide isgauge records capture

Exceedance < 0.6. Time series stationary. Exceedan

For SSA reconstruction, those empirical orthogonal func- the0.48

variability found from a considerably larger number of

tions (EOFs) providing trend information have to be identi- stations (e.g., Holgate, 2007). To compare the estimated pat-

k(t) [-]

fied. Therefore, Kendalls τ (Mann, 1945) is estimated and 0.47of SLR for the North Sea area to global patterns of SLR,

terns

the same tests on stationarity as mentioned above (sliding- a worldwide sea level reconstruction published by Church

window test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) are applied. and0.46

MEAN | 1-a sliding window

White 95%(2006) is analysed using the presented methods. MEAN

confidence bound of first window 95% co

Once the EOFs providing trend information are isolated, they A recently updated version of the reconstruction, providing

are used for reconstruction. To measure the misfit of the re- data from 1870500to 2007,400 300 from the

is available 200homepage

100 of 1000

constructions, the MSE is estimated again. When analysing 510 Month [number]

the Permanent Service of Mean Sea Level (PSMSL).

sea level time series, especially in times of climate change,

511

the behaviour of the time series near the posterior boundary Fig. 4. Results of the sliding-window test on stationarity

is of special importance. Hence, the reconstruction providing 3 Results

the smallest MSE for the last part of the time series (one 512

time series of the Heligoland tide gauge (a) and the Cuxhaven

the chosen embedding dimension) is assumed to be the best Before the results from both, the selected sea level time se-

fit and clearly marked in the resulting plot. All the other513

re- ries from the North Sea and the worldwide sea level recon-

constructions are represented by a shaded band and provide struction are presented in detail, the efficiency of the MCAP

uncertainty assessment for the smoothed time series near the approach is demonstrated. Figure 3 shows the results for

boundaries. This information seems valuable, because the a truncated intervals of the Cuxhaven annual MSL time series.

priori assumption that future sea level will provide a small The estimated smooth providing the smallest MSE, the re-

MSE is weak. The “true” smooth near the posterior bound- sults from 10 000 MCAP simulations and the “true” smooth

ary can be estimated in the future, when longer data sets are are calculated and compared in the figure. In addition, two

available. For example, using SSA with an embedding di- simpler approaches for padding climate time series intro-

mension of 33 years means that the “true” smooth for the duced by Mann (2004), namely the “minimum slope” and

period from 1844 to 2008 can be estimated at first in 2040. the “mean padding” approach are included for comparison

508 1940 interval and (d) the 1844 to 1920 interval.

509 T. Wahl et al.: On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844 175

Exceedance rate < 0.6. Time series is stationary. Exceedance rate < 0.6. Time series is stationary

0.48

k(t) [-]

0.47

95% confidence bound of first window 95% confidence bounds of first window

500 400 300 200 100 1000 800 600 400 200

510 Month [number] Month [number]

Fig. 4. Results of the sliding-window test on stationarity applied to the monthly k-factor time series of the Heligoland tide gauge (a) and the

511 Fig. 4. Results of the sliding-window test on stationarity applied to the monthly k-factor time

Cuxhaven tide gauge (b).

512 series of the Heligoland tide gauge (a) and the Cuxhaven tide gauge (b).

purposes. The “minimum slope” approach used in the most Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The k-factor time series of the

513 recent IPCC assessment (Trenberth et al., 2007) is included Cuxhaven station (Fig. 4b) shows some irregularities at the

in Fig. 3a and b. The “mean padding” approach, also used in end of the 1930s and in the 1940s (month numbers 250 to

the IPCC assessment by Jansen et al. (2007) is included in 400), which is probably an effect of the interruption of mea-

Fig. 3c and d. Mann (2008) argues that both approaches are sures (first of all dredging) in the estuary during and after

tending to artificially suppressing the trends near the bound- the Second World War. Former studies suggest that the accu-

aries. racy of the k-factor improves in proportion to the resolution

The results show that there is always a difference be- in time (Wahl et al., 2008). After the k-factor was found to

tween the estimated and the “true” smoothes. Especially be stationary for both stations, the mean is calculated for the

for the 1844 to 1920 interval the “true” smooth clearly sug- period of 2000 to 2008 for the Heligoland station and for the

gests a stronger SLR than the estimated smoothes. In ad- period of 1998 to 2008 for the Cuxhaven station. Those pe-

dition, a positive acceleration of SLR is indicated by the riods provide sea level data with a resolution in time of one

“true” smooth. The latter is displayed by the MCAP results, minute. The estimated mean is 0.4783 for the Heligoland

whereas the results from using the “mean padding” approach station, which equals a difference between MSL and MTL of

indicate a negative acceleration. The SSA reconstructions about 5 cm. The mean k-factor for the Cuxhaven station is es-

using MCAP show better results than the reconstructions us- timated to 0.4685, which equals a difference between MSL

ing the padding approaches applied in the most recent IPCC and MTL of about 9 cm. The lower k-factor for the Cux-

haven station clearly illustrates that the tide curve is subject

assessment in all cases. Only the reconstruction using “mini-

to stronger deformations near the coastline due to shallow 18

mum slope” for the 1844 to 1980 interval slightly exceeds the

shaded band resulting from 10 000 MCAP simulations. All water effects.

the other reconstructions and the “true” smoothes proceed The mean k-factor is used to correct the available MTL

inside the band, which indicates the benefit of the approach. data from 1990 to 1999 for the Heligoland station and from

It should be noted, that the application of other methods for 1844 to 1917 for the Cuxhaven station. Figure 5 shows

padding time series (e.g. Jevrejeva et al., 2006; Rahmstorf the resulting monthly and annual MSL time series together

et al., 2007; Mann, 2008) lead to better results than the two with a fitted second order polynomial function providing

methods used here for comparison purposes. Especially the the smallest MSE of the considered parametric approaches

“adaptive” approach introduced by Mann (2008) results in a mentioned in Sect. 2. The Heligoland station shows a

very data adaptive smooth as the name indicates. But neither significant positive acceleration of 0.18±0.05 mm a−2 (two

this one, nor any of the other methods allows the quantifica- times the quadratic coefficient of the second order polyno-

tion of uncertainties near the boundaries due to the padding. mial fit), a linear long-term trend of 1.85±0.42 mm a−1 for

In the following, the results from analysing the entire the entire period and a linear trend of 8.50±2.32 mm a−1

record sets of the Cuxhaven tide gauge and the Heligoland for the reduced period since 1993 (all quoted errors are

tide gauge are presented. Figure 4 shows the results of the one σ standard errors). The Cuxhaven MSL time series

sliding-window test on stationarity applied to the monthly k- shows a weak negative acceleration for the entire period,

factor time series. The latter were estimated for the periods which is consistent with the results found for most of the

providing high resolution data (see Sect. 2). From 20 000 European gauges providing long records by Woodworth et

Monte-Carlo simulations it was found that exceedance rates al. (2009a). The estimated linear trend is 2.03±0.08 mm a−1

of the 95% confidence bounds of up to 60% are possible with for the entire period, 1.75±0.17 mm a−1 for the twentieth

stationary time series. Thus, both time series are found to be century, 1.81±0.44 mm a−1 for the period since 1953 and

stationary from the sliding-window test as well as from the 6.44±3.05 mm a−1 for the reduced period from 1993 to

176 T. Wahl et al.: On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844

800 (a)

300

600

400

SLR [mm]

200

SLR [mm]

200

100

0

0

-200

-400

SLR [mm/a]

6 (b)

Rates of

4

-600 2

0

-2

800 (c)

300

600

400

SLR [mm]

200

200

SLR [mm]

100

0

0

-200

-400

SLR [mm/a]

6 (d)

Rates of

4

-600 2

0

-2

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Time [a] 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

514 517 Time [a]

Fig. 5. Monthly and annual MSL time series for the Heligoland

515 Fig.

tide Monthly

5. (a)

gauge and annual

and the Cuxhaven MSL

tide gauge time

(b) and 518 forFig.

series

results from Fig. Results

the6. Heligoland

6.Results from

tide non-linear

gauge (a)smoothing

and the using

from non-linear smoothing using SSA in combi-

SSA in c

nation with MCAP and annual rates of SLR estimated as the first

parametric fitting.

516 519 rates

Cuxhaven tide gauge (b) and results from parametric of SLR estimated as the first deviation of the reconst

fitting. deviation of the reconstruction providing the smallest MSE for the

Heligoland MSL time series (a and b) and the Cuxhaven MSL time

520 for the

series (c andHeligoland

d). MSL time series ((a) and (b)) and the C

2008. The linear trends for the period covered by both tide

gauge records (1953 to 2008) are almost equal, which indi-521 (d)).

cates the quality of the data. Furthermore, conspicuous high d) point to a period of strong positive acceleration of SLR at

or low annual MSL values in general occur at both gauges 522 the end of the 19th century, to a negative acceleration in sub-

at the same time. For example the low value for the year sequent years and to a period of almost no SLR around the

1996, due to offshore winds and very little precipitation and 1970s with subsequent positive acceleration. High rates are

(a)

runoff, or the high value for the year 1967, a year with many observed for the period around 1900 and the highest rates of

200

storm surges. The trend found for the twentieth century from about 5 mm a−1 are estimated for the year 2000. The inflec-

the Cuxhaven time series differs slightly from that found tion150

point at the end of the 19th century is remarkably close

SLR [mm]

by Woodworth et al. (2009b). He derived a linear trend of to observed inflection points around 1880 at the Liverpool

1.4±0.2 mm a−1 from investigating a large number of tide tide100

gauge (Woodworth, 1999) and around 1890 at the Brest

gauges around the UK. The trends estimated for the short pe- tide gauge

50

(Wöppelmann et al., 2006).

riod from 1993 to 2008 are more than two times the trend The post 1970 acceleration is approved by the results from

= Annual MSL time series

found from global altimetry data for almost the same period 0

analysing the shorter =MSL time series

Reconstruction from SSAof the Heligoland

providing the smallest MSEsta-

= Reconstructions from 10,000 MCAP simulations

(Beckley et al., 2007). This is an interesting result, but 16 tion (Fig. 6a and b). The observed rates around 2000 from the

SLR [mm/a]

(b)

years are a very short period to analyse high variability sea Heligoland sea level time series are even higher than those

Rates of

3

level time series as found in the German North Sea region. 2

found from the Cuxhaven time series, but clearly decrease

1

The results for the non-linear data adaptive smoothing us- in the recent years. Note that the annual rates were estimated

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

ing SSA with an embedding dimension of 11 years for 523 the from the SSA reconstruction providing

Time [a] the smallest MSE2020 and

Heligoland time series and of 33 years for the Cuxhaven time that the uncertainties increase near the boundaries.

series and the resulting annual rates of SLR are shown524 in The 7.

Fig. Results

results from non-linear

from analysing the recentlysmoothing

updated global using

sea SSA in c

Fig. 6. The results from the Cuxhaven station (Fig. 6c and level reconstruction of Church and White (2006) are shown

525 rates of SLR estimated as the first deviation of the reconst

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 171–179, 2010 526 for a worldwide sea level reconstruction from 1870 to 200

www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/171/2010/

19

521 (d)).

522 T. Wahl et al.: On analysing sea level rise in the German 527

Bight since 1844 177

4

(a)

200 3

[mm/a]

150

1

SLR [mm]

100 0

-1

50

-2

= Annual MSL time series

0 = Reconstruction from SSA providing the smallest MSE

= Reconstructions from 10,000 MCAP simulations 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

528 Time [a]

SLR [mm/a]

(b)

Rates of

3

2

529 Fig. 8. Difference Δ for the period of 1870 to 2007 betwee

Fig. 8. Difference 1 for the period of 1870 to 2007 between the

1 annual rates of SLR estimated from the Cuxhaven MSL time se-

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 530

2020 from

ries and the Cuxhaven

the annual rates of MSL time series

SLR estimated and the

from a global annual rates

sea level

523 Time [a]

reconstruction.

531 level reconstruction.

524 Fig. Results

Fig.7. 7.Results from from non-linear

non-linear smoothing smoothing using SSA in combination with MCAP and annual

using SSA in combi-

nation with MCAP and annual rates of SLR estimated as the first

532 4 Conclusions and outline

525 rates ofofSLR

deviation estimatedproviding

the reconstruction as the first deviation

the smallest of athe reconstruction providing the smallest MSE

MSE for

worldwide sea level reconstruction from 1870 to 2007.

526 In 2007.

for a worldwide sea level reconstruction from 1870 to this paper, advanced methods to generate and analyse

mean sea level time series are introduced. The presented

in Fig. 7. The time series provides data from 1870 to 2007. modification of the k-factor method and the MCAP approach

Thus, an embedding dimension of 28 years has been used for 20

for padding non stationary sea level time series including un-

the SSA analysis. The smoothed time series shows remark- certainty assessment contribute to overcome an existing lack

ably different patterns of SLR than the sea level time series of knowledge in analysing mean sea level time series, espe-

from the German North Sea area. A positive acceleration oc- cially in shallow seas. The results from analysing the avail-

curred at the end of the 1930s, leading to high rates of SLR able data sets from two relevant tide gauges in the German

around 1940. A following negative acceleration led to low North Sea highlight a post 1970 acceleration of SLR, which

rates for the period after 1960 and rates are increasing again has not been reported before and which has obviously de-

in the recent years. clined in recent years. The comparison between the Ger-

Figure 8 clearly approves the existence of different pat- man North Sea sea level time series and a global sea level

terns of SLR. It shows the difference 1 between the esti- reconstruction clearly reveals the existence of different pat-

mated annual rates of SLR for the Cuxhaven station (Fig. 6d) terns of SLR. A stronger SLR in the German North Sea area

and the annual rates of SLR estimated from the global re- is detected for a period covering some decades starting at the

construction (Fig. 7b). The resulting time series highlights end of the 19th century and for another period covering the

a stronger SLR in the German North Sea area for a period last ten to fifteen years. However, coastal structures along

covering some decades at the end of the 19th century and the the German North Sea coastline are well-conditioned and to

beginning of the 20th century and for another period cover- some extend prepared for an expected SLR. In addition, the

ing the last ten to fifteen years. For both periods the annual sea level is part of a complex system undergoing natural vari-

rates of SLR in the German North Sea area are found be up ability and there are still considerable uncertainties in the re-

to 3 mm a−1 higher than those estimated from a global sea sults.

level reconstruction. Nevertheless, the study also indicates the necessity of fur-

The correlation coefficient between the annual rates of ther research in the field of sea level analysis and observa-

SLR from the Cuxhaven station and the Heligoland station is tion. Uncertainties might be reduced by applying the re-

found to be r=0.71 for the overlapping period from 1953 to sults of GPS measurements to improve the rates of vertical

2008. The correlation between the annual rates of SLR from land movements considered in the sea level analyses (e.g.

the Cuxhaven station and the annual rates estimated from the Wöppelmann et al., 2007, 2009). Furthermore, a reduction

global sea level reconstruction is comparably weak. The cor- of variability of the time series will result in an error reduc-

relation coefficient for the overlapping period from 1870 to tion. This might be done by considering more high qual-

2007 is found to be r=0.33. ity MSL time series from German North Sea tide gauges or

by quantifying the impacts of stochastic meteorological pro-

cesses such as wind setup or air pressure. All of the men-

tioned work areas are subject to actual scientific efforts in

Germany. More and more tide gauges are equipped with

GPS by the Federal Agency of Hydrology (BfG, Koblenz).

178 T. Wahl et al.: On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844

A time consuming digitisation exercise is going on and par- Führböter, A. and Jensen, J.: Säkularänderungen der mittleren Tide-

tially fulfilled at the University of Siegen. This is to allow wasserstände in der Deutschen Bucht, Die Küste, 42, 78–100,

the consideration of more high quality MSL time series to 1985.

improve the results presented in this paper, e.g. by estimating Ghil, M., Allen, M. R., Dettinger, M. D., Ide, K., Kondrashov, D.,

a synthetic time series for the entire German North Sea area. Mann, M. E., Robertson, A. W., Saunders, A., Tian, Y., Varadi,

F., and Yiou, P.: Advanced spectral methods for climatic time

The impact of wind set up and air pressure will be quantified

series, Rev. Geophys., 40(1), 1003, doi:10.1029/2000RG000092,

in close cooperation with oceanographers from the Federal 2002.

Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH, Hamburg). Gönnert, G., Isert, K., Giese, H., and Plüß, A.: Charakterisierung

Finally, the presented results highlight the need for fur- der Tidekurve, Die Küste, 68, 101–141, 2004.

ther research to improve regional climate models or regional Golyandina, N., Nekrutkin, K., and Zhiglëiı̀avskiæi, A. A.: Anal-

sea level projections respectively. It is shown that regional ysis of time series structure, SSA and related techniques, Chap-

patterns of SLR in the German North Sea area are not con- man & Hall/CRC (Monographs on statistics and applied proba-

sistent with global patterns of SLR. Thus, the consideration bility, 90), Boca Raton, Florida, 2001.

of global SLR scenarios, as published for example by the Grinsted, A., Moore, J. C., and Jevrejeva, S.: Reconstructing sea

IPCC, for regional planning purposes must be denoted as an level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD,

Clim. Dynam., published online first, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-

interim solution. The results presented in this paper and the

0507-2, 2009.

results expected after finishing the digitisation exercise will Holgate, S. J.: On the decadal rates of sea level change dur-

contribute to the verification of models for the German North ing the twentieth century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01602,

Sea area. doi:10.1029/2006GL028492, 2007.

Holgate, S. J., Jevrejeva, S., Woodworth, P. L., and Brewer, S.

Acknowledgements. We highly acknowledge the German Coastal C.: Comment on: “A Semi-Emprical Approach to Projecting

Engineering Research Council (KFKI) and the German Federal Future Sea-Level Rise”, Empirical, Science, 317(5846), 1866–

Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) for providing the 1867, doi:10.1126/science.1140942, 2007.

opportunity to overcome an existing lack of knowledge in the field Jansen, E., Overpeck, J., Briffa, K. R., Duplessy, J.-C., Joos, F.,

of mean sea level research in Germany by funding the research Masson-Delmotte, V., Olago, D., Otto-Bliesner, B., Peltier, W.

project “AMSeL – Mean Sea Level and Tidal Analysis at the R., Rahmstorf, S., Ramesh, R., Raynaud, D., Rind, D., Solom-

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