Currency Insight

A Da ily Compre hen sive Repo rt on Cur ren cy
PIVOT TABLE Exchange USDINR- MCX-Sx USDINR-NSE EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Contract June June June June June Support 2 46.8600 46.8600 55.8900 67.9700 50.8600 Support 1 47.0100 47.0100 56.2800 68.2100 51.1300 Close 47.2325 47.2325 56.5200 68.4400 51.3525 Resistance 1 47.4600 47.4600 56.8300 68.7000 51.6200

8 June 2010
Resistance 2 47.6400 47.6400 57.1000 69.1000 51.9400

Pair USDINR- Futures EURINR- Futures GBPINR- Futures JPYINR- Futures

Contract June June June June

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATION Buy/Sell Range Sell at 47.30 Sideways --Sideways Sell at --51.58

Target 47 ----51

Stop loss 47.52 ----51.74

Market Recap: The Indi an rupee marked ran on a depreciation mode as the speculative fund outflows from the stock market are expected to withdraw the inv estors from the risky assets of emerging economies. The global economy is poised for a delayed recovery ahead, as the Euro-zone officials plan to cut the budget deficit. The Spot rupee hi t an intra day hi gh at 47.4300 and registered the day's low at 47.0244, to settle nearing day’s low of 47.095, losing close to 0.53% as compares to Friday’s close of 46.845. The off-shore (NDF) dollar premium eas ed slightly for the day as compared to the onshore premium s tabilizing at the prior day’s lev els. Lowering of difference in premiums helped the rupee to recoup some of the opening loses of around 1.24%. Rupee also regained some momentum as the exporters and corporate sold their dollar holdings to benefit from the early fall. The 30-share stock market struggl ed hard to maintain above the crucial 17,000 levels but failed. The index moved in range of 16,686 through 17,069, to settle at 16,781, low by 1.96% or around 340 points. Forei gn fund inflows are the main drivers of the Indi an rupee, and further flows (i n/out) in the stocks affects the rupee as well. The FII are liquidating thei r holdings due to global factors and this is weighing sentiments towards the rupee. The overseas inv estors sold US $2 billion more Indi an shares than they bought in M ay, the mos t since October 2008, bringing down net inflows in 2010 to US $ 4.6 billion. This is against the US $17.5 billion inflows in year 2009. Moreover, the dollar i ndex, a performance track agains t the basket majors, was up 0.3% during the day and pressurized the rupee to wade low.

Important Pairs to Watch for CROSS USDINR Spot MCX-SX Futures NSE Futures EURO Futures GBP Futures JPY (100) Futures ICE Dollar Index LAST 47.10 47.21 47.21 56.06 67.94 0.52 88.41 1 Day ago 46.85 46.93 46.94 56.36 68.05 0.51 88.23 % Change 0.53 0.60 0.59 -0.53 -0.16 0.64 0.19

Reference Rates as on 6/7/2010 Pair USDINR GBPINR JPYINR 100 EURINR LAST 47.28 68.24 51.87 56.38 1 Day ago 46.67 68.72 50.36 56.85 % Change 1.31 -0.70 3.00 -0.83

Fundamental Outlook: The Asian market opened modest low despite the lower closing in the Wall Street. This could ins till a flat opening in the Indi an Stock market. Moreov er, the dollar index openi ng at 88.433 now low by 0.18% could also weigh on the rupee. Overall, we expect rupee to trade sideways for the day.

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1799 0.16 47.0000 0.49 MCX-SX PVO Analysis CLOSE % CHANGE 47.71 47.959 1708.15 131.51 0.com and Visit Us as www.923 0.49 0.0000 Mail Us at currency@karvy.49 47.1100 0.80 LOW 47.75 47.0000 USDINR Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 NSE Spread Sheet Jun-10 Jul-10 0.60 47.511 % CHANGE 5.1125 0.Currency Insight A Da ily Compre hen sive Repo rt on Cur ren cy Technical Update USD/INR-June futures: Currency pair USD/INR June futures initially traded higher and after making a high of 47.5975 it settl ed lower at 47.com .0000 -0. Market is likely to see a lower correction.235.38 47. We recommend s elling near 47.93 10.06 26.21 123.0273 0.59 47.0000 0.393 13.3 lev els targeting 47 levels.0000 0.196 954 % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST 58.83 USDINR Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 MCX-SX Spread Sheet Jun-10 Jul-10 0.60 47.80 LOW 47.54 47.41 0.41 16.53 589. on the lower side crucial support is at 47 levels if market fails to breach the same likely to bounce back.40 47.67 VOLUME 3.48 47.66 USDINR Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 OPEN 47. However.0000 0.51 VOLUME 3.2975 0.16 47.0875 0.karvyforex.299 22.38 47.362 % CHANGE 10.66 3.1875 Aug-10 Sep-10 0. USDINR Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 OPEN 47.992.09 -0. Closing of the previous day candle renders sideways to lower movements for the day.141 59.77 HIGH 47.62 47.35 35.50 47.29 47.32 0.0000 0.71 47.59 519.744 12.30 47.1700 Aug-10 Sep-10 0.21 0.2150 0. 2325 levels.98 5.78 47.2725 0.05 11.434 442.1025 0.323 41.21 0.78 HIGH 47.1975 0.33 8.60 47.43 0.357 -5.28 47.47 NSE PVO Analysis CLOSE % CHANGE 47.71 47.811 651 % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST 29.972 -4.38 47.32 0.71 2.78 47.

that they undertake.21 -0.4519 1.19 19780.3720 7.0140 47.11 Forwards Market (Onshore & Offshore) FORWARDS 1-Mth Forward 3-Mth Forward 6-Mth Forward 12-Mth Forward 1-Mth NDF 3-Mth NDF 6-Mth NDF 12-Mth NDF LAST 47.23 0.06 Asian Currency Pairs ASIAN/INR Chinese Yuan Hongkong Dollar Indonesian Rupiah Myanmar Ringgit Philipinnes Peso Singapore Dollar S Korean Won Taiwan Dollar Thailand Baht LAST 6.5372 0.38 -1.64 -3.4431 1 Day ago 6.69 2219.04 -1.00 16781. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report.4825 47.15 -0.59 9901.7100 1. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.5080 14.S.1422 7.5366 0.com and Visit Us as www.9645 47. 5Yr Bond Yield U. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades.com .5097 14.1459 0.4700 47.08 -2.8600 6.4553 1.20 -0.61 INDICATORS LIBOR 1Mth LIBOR 3Mth MIBOR 1Mth MIBOR 3Mth U.17 9931.73 9520.53 0.4000 7.36 -0. however.4343 % Change 0.2023 7.0100 0.80 19378.13 -0.00 0.2800 % Change 0.51 0. if any.97 -2.8930 6. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors.6700 47.3700 47.48 0.1299 1.2157 0.46 Disclaimer The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited.33 -1.88 -0.4500 % Change 0.3500 0.4850 5. investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned in this document. 10Yr Bond Yield India 5Yr Bond Yield India 10Yr Bond Yield Call Rate Debt Market Information LAST 0.07 2173.S.7100 1.22 -0.7300 48. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. Mail Us at currency@karvy.15 5069.49 2511.2725 47.9298 3.06 1 Day ago 5135.0100 48.karvyforex.3812 1.4300 0.40 -0.1358 47.5670 5.3038 1. We.66 -1.03 -1.9826 3.1500 1 Day ago 0.3500 0.0118 33.07 5126. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.0056 33.61 0.2300 47.4300 0. directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time.21 -2.12 0.55 0.Currency Insight A Da ily Compre hen sive Repo rt on Cur ren cy Major World Indices INDICES NIFTY SENSEX NASDAQ DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL SHANGHAI COMPOSITE NIKKIE 225 HANGSENG FTSE Index LAST 5034.00 0.90 9816. do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof.97 2553.4875 47.50 17117.00 -2.4200 1 Day ago 47.84 -2. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and us ing such independent advice. as they believe necessary.0340 0.98 -1.3898 1.7275 48.00 % Change -1.9400 48. The author.16 -1.

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