chapter 2

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chapter 2

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2.1 General

Flood is considered as unusually high stage of the river. It is perhaps better

described as that stage at which the stream channel gets filled and above which it

overflows its bank. An annual peakflow is known as the largest instantaneous

flow in any given year. Flow adopted for the design purposes is defined as desiga

flow. It may be a corresponding to some desired frequency of occurrence

depending upon the standard of security that should be provided against failure of

a structure.

Several methods are currently available for the estimation of peakflow rate,

but many of these have different kind of limitations in practice according to their

nature. In Engineering, the most widely used method for estimating a peak flood

of a certain probability is the rational formula.. But it is not clear whether She imit

hydrograph or whether any variations of regional flood frequency occupies

second place (Linsley, 1986). Other than those methods the Curve Number

method is also common in practice. Statistical methods are applicable where there

are long period of historical flows. Regional flood transposition is a method by

which the estimation of peak floods and design floods can be made in ungauged

watersheds by extrapolation.

of an adjacent basin, or of a similar basin or of the same region are available then

such flow data can be used to estimate the peakflow. In the absence of flow data,

mere are methods to use rainfall as an input to obtain flow records. This also

could be done either statistically or using various types of rainfall - runoff modeSs.

publications presenting different kind of methods for peakflow estimation.

However literature indicating the applicability of such methods to Sri Lankaai

conditions are scarce.

records of events. If stream gauging records of sufficient length are available, an

analysis of the historic flood frequency is a reliable tool for estimating likelihood

of future floods. But in most cases however, records extend over short lengths of

2-1

time and contain relatively few events. The analysis with such data is not

representative of long term behaviour.

records is necessary to predict a 100 year flood and 80 to 90 years of records are

needed to predict a 250 years flood (Sharma & Sharma, 1977).

generally applicable to the annual series. The more useful amongst those w h i c h

have been proposed include the following.

Extreme value Type n distribution

The first two distributions involve only two parameters, and special graph

papers have been derived for them, so that any distribution of that type plots as a

straight line on the graph paper for that distribution.

values in a given interval of a process with an exponential distribution. The log-

gumbel distribution was found to give the best fit to the relatively short stream

flow data available.

Resources Council as the basic method for flood frequency analysis. This

distribution has been found to provide a good fit for many annual flood series.

The two-parameter log-normal distribution is a special case of the log-pearson

type DI distribution (TEA, 1977).

The regional flood frequency analysis is adopted for the catchments where

streamflow data are not available or the length of records is too short. The

regional flood frequency analysis makes use of the available data of streams in

statistical homogeneous regions. In such a region, the point data analyses are

averaged to represent the frequency characteristics of the entire region. In the

Analysis, mean annual flood which corresponds to a recurrence interval of 2.33

years is used for developing basic dimensionless frequency curve. Also tile

variation of mean flood, Q m with drainage area and variation Qr/Qm w&n

recurrence interval T are plotted. The combination of mean annual flood w i t h t h e

2-2

basic frequency curve which is in terms o f the mean annual flood give a

frequency for any section.

When the regional flood frequency curves are employed for assessing flood o f

an ungauged catchment, a correlation is established graphically by plotting mean

annual floods against respective catchment areas o f all gauged stations in the area

o f logarithmic paper. This relation is then used to obtain the mean annual flood

for ungauged catchment. The flood for ungauged catchment for a given frequency

is determined by computing the corresponding flood ratio from the regional

frequency curve for region and multiplying it by the mean annual flood o f the

ungauged catchment (Sharma and Sharma 1976, W M O 1 9 8 9 ) .

2 . 2 . 3 Envelop curves

Envelop curves are based on the theory that ths maximum flood per hectare

experienced in one basin is quite likely to be experienced in a nearby b a s k in the

same region and possessing similar characteristics.

In this method the available flood peak data from a large number o f

catchments which do not significantly differ from each other in terms o f

meteorological and topographical characteristics are collected. The data are then

plotted on a log-log paper as flood peak V s catchment area. This would result in a

plot in which the data would be scattered. If an enveloping curve mat would

encompasses all the plotted data is drawn, it can be used to obtain maximum peak

discharges for any given area. These curves are useful in getting quick but rough

estimations o f peak values (Subramanya 1984). Sharma and Sharma (1976), cites

two different kinds of envelope curves developed by (1) Justin, Creager and

Hinds and ( 2 ) Bird and Mailluraith. Both relate the discharge fo the drainage area

using exponents obtained empirically. The first one is derived for basins with

comparable drainage characteristics, and the second one is called the worid

enveloping flood.

available flood data are meagre, the flood transposition can be used to generate a

series o f annual maximum peakflows using regional gauged catchment The

advantage of using Flood Transposition equation is that the computation o f design

flows could be done by directly using flow records. In other methods rainfall and

other parameters are used to estimate flow records. Also most rainfall - runoff

models require time consuming field data collection. Most o f the flood

transposition formulae assume that the area is the key factor influencing the

n

peakflows. Hence the relationship is o f the type o f Q = C A . Where n is aa

exponent.

2-3

There are vast numbers of formulae of this kind proposed for various parts of

the world; Several types of empirical relationships have been established based on

the catchment properties mainly the basin area but in some cases rainfall

characteristics, basin characteristics and flood frequency. Since these formulae

refer invariably to particular physical and climatic conditions these are safely

applicable to the areas or regions where the same were developed. A summary o f

various empirical formulae in literature is as follows. The most widely used

formulae in South India are the R y v e ' s formula and the Dicken's formula.

273 3/4

i. Ryve's Formulae, Q = C A and Dicken's formula, Q = C A , when Q is

the maximum flood discharge in cumecs, A is the catchment area in km2

and C is a coefficient varying from place to place depending upon the

rainfall pattern of the zones in which the catchment is situated (Murthi,

1977)

5 2

Q = 123A / (A + 10.4) , Q in cumecs and A in k m

( 8 9 ( 1 / I 5 1 0 8A ) 2

Q = 2000A • > , Q in cumecs and A in k m

( 0 9 2 ( 1 / 1 4 ) , o 8 A 2

Q = cA - ' , Q in cumecs and A in k m

Value o f C taken from 48 to 60. This formula has been developed mainly

for catchments of Deccan River in India.

3 / 6 , 2

Q = CA Q in cumecs and C in k m

Where value o f C is taken as 2.54

There are some other formulae which are involving not only basin area but

also the other basin characteristics. The Rational formula, discussed

earlier, is one such formula dealing with intensity o f rainfall, slope o f the

catchment and land use etc. T w o other formulae found in literature

involving some other catchment characteristics with drainage area are as

follows, the first one is involved with the length of the catchment and the

next is related to the altitude of the catchment and percentage area o f the

reservoirs.

( 2 / 3 )

vi. Q = CA / L (Sharma and Sharma, 1976)

Where C: Constant, L: Average length o f the area and A: Drainage area

124 0 9 5 1 7

.vii. Q = ( . 0 0 0 0 3 6 h + 124) A / r (Subramanya, 1984)

Where h: median altitude o f the basin in ft above the outlet, r: percentage

of lake, pond and reservoir area

2-4

2.2/5 Unit H y d r o g r a p h M e t h o d s

Sharmen in 1932, which can be used t o derive the hydrograph resulting from any

amount o f excess rainfall. This is a hypothetical hydrograph o f a basin due to a

flood o f unit surface runoff in a given time. Three types o f different approaches

for peakflow estimation using unit hydrograph principles are the Snyders unit

hydrograph, SCS dimensionless hydrographs, and instantaneous hydrograph.

Among the different key parameters used in hydrograph analysis the time o f

concentration is considered as the most important one.

One o f the most common formulae often used in the world was derived by

Kirpich based on data from rural agricultural drainage basins (Maidment, 1993).

Ponrajah recommended the use o f velocity estimates for determining the time o f

concentration for the Sri Lankan catchments (ID, 1984).

size. However, in practice, to meet the basic assumptions it is essential to use

storms uniformly distributed over the basin and producing rainfall excess (direct

runoff) at a uniform rate. Such storms rarely occur on large areas. The method is

said to be less accurate for small areas below 25 square kilometres (Sharma and

Sharma, 1976).

estimation o f coefficients expressing various physical features o f a catchment.

Synthetic unit hydrograph is developed based on known physical characteristics

o f the basin, where adequate rainfall data are lacking. Snyder in 1938 has found

various relationships between catchment parameters to derive a standard

hydrograph (Sharma and Sharma, 1976).

2.2.5.2 S C S Dimensionless H y d r o g r a p h

was developed by Mackus (1957). It was derived from a large number o f natural

unit hydrographs from drainage basins varying widely in size and geographical

locations. The shape o f this dimensionless unit hydrograph predetermines the time

distribution o f the runoff; time expressed in units o f time to peak, and runoff rates

are expressed in units of peak runoff rate (Ritzema, 1994).

2-5

2.2.5.3 Instantaneous Unit H y d r o g r a p h

from instantaneous application o f rainfall e x c e s s ' volume o f 1 c m spread

uniformly in the drainage area and is expressed u (0, t) or U (t). The merit o f f U H

over a unit hydrograph is that the former is independent o f duration o f rainfall

excess, thereby resulting in elimination o f one variable in the hydrograph analysis

(Sharma and Sharma, 1976).

2.2.4* Curve N u m b e r M e t h o d ( S C S M e t h o d )

For a drainage basin where no runoff has been measured, the curve number

method can be used to estimate the depth o f direct runoff from the rainfall depth,

given an index describing runoff response characteristics. Runoff (Q)

computations are carried out by using SCS formulae and a curve number. Curve

number depends on the antecedent wetness o f the watershed, soil, land cover and

the hydrologic conditions. The antecedent moisture condition refers to three

classes o f antecedent moisture conditions ( A M C ) namely dry, average, and w e t

Hydrologic conditions are related to whether vegetation is dense and in good

condition, and also whether soil is rich in organic matter and has a well

aggregated structure. The hydrologic condition identifies the watershed capacity

to result in high infiltration and l o w runoff.

The Curve Number method was originally developed by the Soil Conservation

Service in 1 9 6 4 for conditions prevailing in the United States. Since then it has

been adopted to conditions in other parts o f the world. Although some regional

research centres have developed additional criteria, the basic concept is still

widely used all over the world.

2.2.7 Rational F o r m u l a

The relationship between rainfall and peak runoff has been represented b y

many empirical or semi-empirical formulae. The Rational formula is one such

formula, which is considered as one o f the most common hydrologic methods for

computing peak discharge. Although this formula is based o n a number o f

assumptions, which cannot be readily satisfied under actual circumstances, it is

very popular because o f its simplicity. Generally the formula can be written as Q

= RCIA. The parameter relates the peak flow to the Rainfall Intensity, Return

period, Runoff coefficient o f the watershed and the watershed area (JEA, 1977).

The coefficient o f runoff has been related to the catchment slope and coefficient

of runoff o f Sri Lankan catchments are in Table 2.1 (Ponrajah, 1984).

2-6

Table 2 . 1 : Catchment Slopes and Corresponding R u n o f f Coefficients in

Rational M e t h o d

0to2 0.3

2to4 0.4

= >4 0.5

Time o f concentration for small watersheds and irrigation works are given by

Ponrajah (1984). In his work he has computed time o f concentration as a factor o f

travel length, average velocity and inlet time. Table 2.2 shows some typical

values (ID, 1984).

in Rational Method

Otol 1.5

lto2 2.0

2to4 3.0

4 to 6 4.0

>6 5.0

watersheds up to 1000 acres. Rational formula gives too high estimates o f peak

flow values for large watersheds (Batuwitage et al., 1985).

ungauged watersheds. In this method the key factors influencing peakflows are

combined to an equation to find the regression coefficients. If a lengthy data set o f

annual peak flows are available then the annual average peakflow or return period

flow for specified return period is regressed to obtain an equation. Usually these

are done for regions and the regression equations are o f the following type; Q = c

a b C

Xi X 2 X . Q could be either the mean annul peak or a return period peak and

3

All such formulae include basin area as a factor and most contain some index

o f rainfall intensity and frequency, in addition to differing measures o f several

morphometric characteristics. Chorley (1985) cited following examples for

regression equations.

Q* 10

-_ a„ Aj

A 0 . 1 7 TT-0.55 T> 0 9 3 o 0.45

T P S

(Region: Allegheny-Cumberland Plateau)

7 2 4 2 0 2 9

qV^bV-'V ? - ^- -

(Region: Appalachian Plateau)

0 7 7 2 9 2 0 8 1

Q . =dA ' R ' D '

2 3 3

Where

Q 10 = peak discharge (cusec/acre) for a ten year recurrence interval

Q2.33 = peak discharge (cusec) m the mean annual Hood

Ai ~ basin area (acres)

P = rainfall intensity factor

T = topography factor

S - rainfall frequency factor

t - topography factor

A = basin area

S = main channel slope (ft/mile)

R = mean annual daily maximum rainfall (in)

D = drainage density (miles/ square mile)

University College, Gaiway (1985) cited a case study done for 57 catchments and

computed regressions for the region and also for urban watersheds. ( C u r a r e ,

1985). Regression equations cited is

0 94 0 28 0 1 6 1 2 1 103 0 6 0 4 7

Qmean - c A ' STEMFEQ ' SI Soil R LAKE" '* URBAN

Where

2

A = area in k m

STKMFQ = stream frequency

SI - overland slope

Soil = index for Soil/ Geology

R ='- average annual rainfall

LAKE = i&dex for catchment storage

1.23, 1.03 a i d -0.85 respectively.

Since these multiple regressions are done usually for return period based floods or

rnei». annual peak floods this method may s o t be &at advantageous to transpose

peak floods to obtain return period floods for design purposes.

2-8

2.3 Accuracy of Peakflow Estimation Using Different Methods

When hydrologists are asked about the accuracy of their estimated flood

peaks, the most frequent response is that they lie within 20%. However a few

optimists will say that the accuracy is 10% and the pessimists may say 30%.

Almost all responses indicate that such errors are "acceptable" (Linsley, 1986).

Lankan catchments by considering 16 catchments in Sri Lanka, the accuracy of

those methods is concluded as follows (Batuwitage et al, 1986).

i. The method chosen for the determination of the time of concentration is vital,

and has considerable effects on the design flood.

ii. Estimated design floods from Snyder's techniques tends to give higher values

than those obtained by statistical methods.

iii. US Soil Conservation Service method usually gives higher or the highest

values for the design floods as the catchment area increases. Even for small

catchments generally the estimated floods are considerably higher than the

values obtain by statistical methods.

This study provides the peak flow estimates from different methods for

comparison.

that four of the models used for peak flow estimation show consistency in the case

of small watersheds but estimates made using Snyder's Unit Hydrograph Method

appear to deviate in case of larger watersheds. Snyder's method, Rational formula,

HEC 1 flood model and SCS hydrograph method were the methods used for this

study (Wijesekera, 2000).

The peak flow of a basin is affected by many factors. All these factors are

mostly related to one another. There are difficulties in quantifying some of the

factors such as vegetation and land use, while in many cases measurement of

others such as infiltration rates, rain fall intensities are simply not available.

Often only other materials that can be obtained, other than river flow records are

those such as slopes, area etc that can be derived from maps. The factors affecting

flood peaks can be grouped mainly in two categories as climatic factors and

catchment characteristics.

2.4.1 Climatic Factors

The main effect o f climate on peak flow is in rainfall intensity and duration.

Rainfall intensity has a direct bearing on runoff because when the infiltration

capacity is exceeded all the excess rain flows to the surface watercourses. Since

intensity represents rainfall over a particular time, it cannot be considered

separately from duration.

Rainfall intensity influences both the rate and the volume o f runoff. An

intense storm exceeds the infiltration capacity by a greater margin man a gentle

rain, thus the total volume o f runoff is greater for the intense storm than a gentle

storm even though total precipitation for the two rains is the same. Rainfall

intensity is one o f the major considerations when calculating peak flow using

rational formula and unit hydrograph method. Estimation o f rainfall intensity is

usually done using rainfall intensity-frequency-duration curves for specified

recurrence interval and duration.

Total runoff from a storm is clearly related to the duration for a given

intensity. A storm o f short duration may produce lower runoff, whereas a storm o f

the same intensity but o f long duration will result in higher runoff. Uniform -

intensity storm causes the hydrograph of stream rise. Such storms may be defined

as covering the whole catchment area, over which the depth o f rainfall is

reasonably constant and delivered at a constant rate. After a certain time, T c (time

o f concentration), the rate o f runoff becomes constant. The runoff at this point is

the peak flow and to obtain the peak for a particular basin the duration o f rainfall

should not be less than the time o f concentration.

Rate and volume o f runoff are influenced by the distribution o f rainfall and its

intensity over the watershed. Generally maximum rate and volume o f runoff

occurs when the entire watershed contributes. However, an intense storm on one

portion o f the catchment may result in greater runoff than a moderate storm over

the entire watershed. Therefore the distribution of rainfall would also influence

the peak flow from a watershed.

2-10

2.4.1.4 Direction of Storm M o v e m e n t

The prevailing winds and storm movement usually have a particular seasonal

pattern. The direction in which the storm centre moves across a basin with

respect to the direction o f flow o f the drainage system has pronounced effect on

the peak flow and the period of surface runoff. A storm moving in the direction o f

a stream produces higer peaks in a shorter period than a storm moving upstream.

affect the rate and quantity of discharge from i t B y 'catchment' is meant the

whole of the land and water surfaces area contributing to the discharge at a

particular stream or river cross section, from which it is clear that every point on a

stream channel has a unique catchment o f its own, the size o f the catchment

increasing as the control point moves down stream, reaching its maximum size

when the control is at the sea cost. At this point the catchment is called as river

basin.

the drainage area. The characteristics are generally related to the physical

drainage basin or to the channel. The physical characteristics o f a catchment are

the drainage area, its shape, slope, drainage density, mean elevation and land use

etc.

2.4.2.1 Basin A r e a

Larger the size o f the basin, the greater the amount o f rain it intercepts and

higher the peak discharge it results. This rather obvious conclusion has been the

basis for a large number o f flood formula in general form:

n

Q = CA

Where

Q = peak discharge;

A = basin area,

C = a constant that varies according to the land use or topography of the basin;

n = a constant that has a range from 0.2 to 0.9, depending on climate to some

extent (Chorley et al, 1969).

It should be noted that the effects o f other factors are considered insignificant in

these types of equations.

2-11

2 . 4 . 2 . 2 B a s i n Shape

The shape o f the catchment influences the runoff pattern o f the stream. Thus

for a semicircular catchment, the hydrograph is high and narrow, and for a long

narrow rectangular catchment it is broad and shallow. Long narrow watersheds

are likely to have lower runoff rates than compact watersheds o f the same size.

Because the runoff from the former does not concentrate as quickly as it does

from the compact areas and long watersheds are less likely to be covered

uniformly by intense storm.

of shape indices are cited in literature. The best known being the form factor and

compactness coefficient. The former is the ratio o f average width to axial length

o f the basin, while the latter demonstrates the compactness o f the basin.

The form factor is an index expressing the relation o f average width to the axial

length o f the basin, to measure shape characteristics. Axial length is the length

from outlet to the remotest point in the basin and the average width is the average

width obtained perpendicular to the axial length. (Sharma and Sharma, 1977)

circumference o f a circle whose area is equal to that o f the catchment. This

coefficient is independent o f the size o f the catchment and is dependent only on

the shape (Sharma and Sharma, 1977).

2 . 4 . 2 . 3 Basin Elevation

The altitudinal extent of the basin above the gauging station exercise direct

and indirect control over the magnitude of the flood peak. With the slope and

several additional factors, it determines the proportion o f runoff, and indirectly it

influences a number o f other important controls, such as precipitation,

temperature, vegetation, and soil type. Though it is difficult to compute a single

term which gives a meaningful measure of basin elevation, several studies have

shown it has no significant relation to the size o f the flood peak (Chorley et al,

1973).

2 . 4 . 2 . 4 Drainage Density

the drainage system of a basin. A quick rise to a high peak is the mark o f a well

2-12

developed net work of short steep streams. Conversely, a minimal response to

intense rain usually reflects an incipient channel system.

Linear aspects of the channel system are expressed in terms o f stream order,

bifurcation ratio and stream length, other than the longest length o f the stream

channel, none o f these measures, by m e m selves have been shown to exercise

control over the flood peak. On the other hand their inclusion with other factors

has reduced the error o f estimate o f peak flow, and this also applies to areal

relationships and channel gradients (Chorley et al, 1973). According to the

literature cited, for a study o f England floods ninety-three slope factors were

computed and main channel slope was found as the most significant variable, hi

this study peak flow showed no relation to drainage density, once channel slope

has been taken in to account.

intermittent, per unit area o f the basin. It is an index o f the areal channel

development in the catchment (Sharma and Sharma; 1977).

difficult to interpret meaningfully. Generally it is taken as total fall between the

points divided by the stream length. Watersheds having extensive fiat areas or

depressed areas without surface outlets have lower runoff than areas with steep,

well-defined drainage patterns. In short and steep slopes, discharge is usually

rapid. Runoff from long slopes is generally slower but lasts longer after the

rainfall ceases.

The factor slope is used in different formula for peak flow estimation. In

rational formula Irrigation Department guidelines recommended to select the

coefficient ' C according to the catchment slope (ID, 1988). Slope is a factor

determining time o f concentration in Kirpich equation and Bransby William

equation. There are five classes o f slopes introduced to determine Curve Number

in SCS method for peak flow estimation.

Vegetation and forests increase the infiltration and storage capacities o f the

soils, they cause considerable retardant to overland flow. Thus the vegetal cover

reduces the peak flow..This effect is usually very pronounced in small catchments

2

o f area less man 150km . Further, the effect o f the vegetal cover is prominent in

small storms (Chorely et al, 1969).

2-13

This is a factor for selecting the Curve Number in the SCS method o f peak

flow estimation. In some instances the land use cover is employed as a factor

determining the coefficient o f runoff in rational formula (IE A. 1977).

2-14

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