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Summer 2018 US Weather Outlook

Focus: Albuquerque
Overview: US & NM

Subplot: The Cold AMO Returns?


Weather Bingo
El Nino Below The Surface?
• Subsurface Ocean temperatures are very warm, despite a slow to fade La
Nina at the surface. El Nino is forecast to form in July by most weather
models.
Summer Analog Selection Process
Summer Analogs
• For this outlook, analogs will be filtered by Summers that were preceded
by Nina winter and then followed by an El Nino winter.
• That method produces 14 years since 1930: 1939, 1945, 1951, 1957,
1963, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2006, 2009, and 2014.

• These years were then weighted by six other factors:


– Was the transition from an East-Central La Nina to a Modoki El
Nino?
– Was Nov-Apr very dry before the Summer?
– Was the PDO somewhat positive Nov-Apr before Summer?
– Was the AMO positive Nov-Apr before Summer?
– Was Solar activity low before in July-June before the Summer?
– Were there two La Ninas before a developing El Nino like this year?

• The Canadian Model was then used to guide the “overall” ocean
temperature outlook

• The best Summer matches across the seven variables are: 1963, 1968 (x2),
1972 (x2), 1994, 2006, 2009 (x2), 2014
Summer 2018 Analogs Visually
Albuquerque Mean High Outlook

Analogs favor a near average high each month.

When weighted and incorporating solar effects, the analogs imply 3-4 days hitting
100F or more, down from five last year, mostly due to a wetter June.
Albuquerque 90F Days
• Fewer 90F degree days expected than the long-term mean. However, the
analogs have been adjusted up, in light of our warm May. The first 90F day
was recorded on May 8th, similar to the 2009 analog. A wet period in June is
expected to help hold down the numbers later in the Summer. Long-term,
the city has 64 days that are 90F or above.
• Keep in mind 2011 had 91(!) 90F days, while 1999 had only 23(!) 90F days!
Albuquerque Precipitation Outlook

Several independent signals exist for a wet June this year. July and August both look
wetter than last year, while September looks drier, and this is why September was
adjusted warmer on the earlier temperature slide. Low-solar activity favors a wetter
monsoon, with the wettest month in August.
Maps: June 2018
Maps: July 2018
Maps: August 2018
Maps: September 2018
Maps: June-September 2018
Summary
• El Nino is expected to develop mid-Summer.
• Fairly cold Summer for the US, outside of the coastal Northwest. June will
start off warm, like May, before rains begin in the Southwest.
• The analogs show two windows for precipitation in June: 6/10-6/13, and
6/21-6/29. The hottest week of the year is usually 6/22-6/28, so this should
hold down June temperatures and 100F readings as well. July & August
should see fairly consistent rains after brief hot periods.
• July & August are expected to be near average for temperatures with above
normal rainfall in New Mexico, particularly in August, when solar effects are
strongest for the wet-season precipitation.
• A rainy pattern will develop, ending the long dry spell since October 2017.
• A massive monsoon, like 2006, or even 2013 is not expected.
• September is expected to be much drier than last year.
• Although the monsoon will end up only slightly wetter than last year, it will
be spread out more evenly over the Summer.