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Autofacts®

2010 Automotive Review


Global Automotive Outlook

1 G
 lobal summary 7 Regional overview 61 Pure electric vehicles

75 L
 eading alliance 259 Summary powertrain data
group data
Contents

Global summary 1

Regional overview 7
North America – market overview with sales and assembly

European Union+EFTA – market overview with sales and assembly

East Europe – market overview with sales and assembly

Asia Pacific developed – market overview with sales and assembly

Asia Pacific developing – market overview with sales and assembly

South America – market overview with sales and assembly

Additional content 61

Pure electric vehicles: a long-term solution to sustainable transportation?

Leading alliance group data 75

Assembly

Capacity

Summary powertrain data 259

© 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. “PricewaterhouseCoopers” and “PwC” refer to the network of member firms
of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent
of PwCIL or any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the acts
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member firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another
member firm’s professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way. DT-10-0069
Market Summary
East Europe

East Europe the economies that constitute the In Russia, the market had
Despite a recent history of strong region. To some extent, all the benefitted from economic growth
growth, East Europe has proved no major assembling countries of East driven by access to easy credit
more resilient to the global decline Europe (Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) and the booming revenues from
in vehicle demand than any other had enjoyed the fruits of economic Russia’s raw materials and energy
region. The region, which had stability, low interest rates, access exports. These fed into a rising
posted an average annual assembly to credit and the benefits of economy: GDP grew 8.1% in 2007.
growth rate of 10% between 2000 global trade (e.g. exports of both However, during 2008 the economy
and 2008 (peaking at 25% in 2004), consumer goods and raw materials began to contract and grew only
saw a decline in assembly of more and energy). All this changed during 5.6%, then fell by 7.9% in 2009.
than 46% in 2008. the latter half of 2008, as the effects New car sales, which began to
of the global slowdown began decline from May 2008 and fell
This development came against to affect the economies of East dramatically throughout 2009,
a background of rapid change in European countries: Credit began to reflected the economic contraction.
dry up, and exports declined. Indeed 2009 sales, at fewer than

East Europe light vehicle assembly


2008 vs. 2009 by quarter
1,000 100%

800 80%

600 60%

400 40%

200 20%

0 0%

-200 -20%

-400 -40%

-600 -60%

-800 -80%

-1,000 -100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 2009 % Change (R-axis)

Source: PwC Autofacts 2010 Q2

PricewaterhouseCoopers I 27
Market Performance
EU+EFTA

EU+EFTA car sales were slightly Taking WE first (EU15+EFTA), the


2009’s gain will be ahead of initial expectations in Q1 second half of 2009 was extremely
2010’s loss. 2010, increasing by 9.5%, because strong, with the SAAR recovering
of a number of factors. Those to near-normal levels, because of
markets where scrappage schemes the rush to benefit from the German
The extent of 2009’s were in place but ending, such as scrappage scheme before funds ran
volatility is clearly seen by Italy and the United Kingdom, saw out combined with the increasing
the SAAR range of over strong growth as people rushed impact from the UK and Spanish
4m units compared to a to benefit from the incentives. schemes, which did not start
normal range of 1–1.5m Germany saw a smaller-than- until midyear. Following a drop in
units. Whilst 2010 is expected contraction following January 2010, primarily because of
unlikely to see a repeat, the ending of its scheme last year, the removal of the scrappage boost
suggesting the overall market from Germany, the SAAR recovered
volatility is still likely to contraction in 2010 may be less strongly in February and especially
be higher than normal as than initially feared. Finally, many March. However, we do not
scrappge schemes end. markets which were not distorted anticipate this level of demand to
Overall, we expect EU LV by scrappage schemes in 2009 be sustained, currently forecasting
registrations of 14.98m got off to a strong start, illustrated new car sales of about 12.7m units
units in 2010. by Belgium (+12.1%), Denmark in WE.
(+12.8%), Sweden (+34.6%) and
Norway (+57.4%).

WE (EU15+EFTA) annual and SAAR forecast


2003–2010 (Millions)
17

16

15

14

13

At present the upside potential appears


12 to be outweighing the downside risk,
with post scrappage scheme falls appearing
11 less severe than anticipated and other WE
market growth starting strongly.

10
Jan 03
May 03
Sep 03
Jan 04
May 04
Sep 04
Jan 05
May 05
Sep 05
Jan 06
May 06
Sep 06
Jan 07
May 07
Sep 07
Jan 08
May 08
Sep 08
Jan 09
May 09
Sep 09
Jan 10
May 10

SAAR Annual Sales


Sales Forecast

Source: ACEA, Autofacts 2010 Q2

PricewaterhouseCoopers I 19
Pure Electric Vehicles:
The long-term solution to
sustainable transportation?

Introduction Twizy and Zoe, as well as Daimler’s


Pure electric vehicles (PEVs) have Blue Zero vehicles including plug-
received plenty of public attention in hybrid (PHEV), PEV and fuel cell
lately. The 2009 Frankfurt Motor variants. Furthermore, the 2010
Show hosted many electric vehicles, North American International Auto
such as Renault’s zero emission fleet Show had its own “Electric Avenue”
consisting of the Fluence, Kangoo, to showcase PEV developments by
various suppliers and automakers.

Global EV assembly scenario forecast


1.000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Scenario range
Baseline

Source: PwC Autofacts 2010 Q2

PricewaterhouseCoopers I 61
Renault-Nissan: Assembly (000s) East Europe

Platform Brand Nameplate Code Plant Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013

1111 Lada Oka 1111 Serpukhov Russia 4.9 1.3


1117 Lada Kalina 1117 Togliatti #1 Russia 93.1 136.2 41.2
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Argun Russia 0.1 0.8
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Izhevsk Russia 21.9 20.9 4.3
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Kremenchug Ukraine 5.4 0.6
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Lutsk Ukraine 12.3 17.4
124 Lada Nova/Zhiguli 124 Togliatti #1 Russia 212.1 203.2 53.0
2108 Lada 110 110 Cherkasy Ukraine 5.4 5.4
2108 Lada 110 110 Kremenchug Ukraine 8.0 2.2 1.6
2108 Lada 110 110 Lutsk Ukraine 3.8 4.5
2108 Lada 110 110 Togliatti #1 Russia 121 38.4 0.9
2108 Lada Priora 2170 Togliatti #1 Russia 72.9 172.3 94.1
2108 Lada Samara 2108 Ilichevsk Ukraine 32.7 22.8 3.5
2108 Lada Samara 2108 Togliatti #1 Russia 193.9 207.3 75.7
2108 Lada Samara 2108 Ust-Kamenogorsk Kazakhstan 1.6 0.9 1.0
2121 Lada Niva 2121 Lutsk Ukraine 0.8 0.8
2121 Lada Niva 2121 Togliatti #1 Russia 42.9 44.2 32.1
2121 Lada Niva 2121 Ust-Kamenogorsk Kazakhstan 3.4 1.0 0.9
D Nissan Teana J32 Vyborg Russia 1.5
F-ALPHA Nissan Pathfinder P61B Astana Kazakhstan 0.8
X65 Renault Clio Symbol L65 Bursa Turkey 75.4 46.0
X65 Renault Symbol L35 Bursa Turkey 23.9 60.7
X84/C Nissan X-Trail X84/C Astana Kazakhstan 0.4
X84/C Nissan X-Trail X84/C Vyborg Russia 1.3
X84/C Renault Fluence L38 Bursa Turkey 9.6
X84/C Renault Megane X84 Bursa Turkey 85.3 65.4 22.0
X84/C Renault Megane LC B32 Bursa Turkey 0.4
X85/B Renault Clio X85 Bursa Turkey 102.9 151.4 170.8
X85/B Renault Logan X90 Moscow Russia 72.8 72.6 52.9
Total 1,167.0 1,238.8 635.0 857.6 874.6 1,200.4

PricewaterhouseCoopers
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115
Autofacts® I 2010 Automotive Review
Engine fuel type
Consumption of engines by fuel type is subject to regional variation. The share of diesel engines has been and will
be the highest in the EU, accounting for more than 50% of the total consumption volume. Moreover, the share of
alternative fuels will be comparatively low even in 2013.

Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa

100% 40 100% 10

75% 30 75%

50% 20 50%

25% 10 25%

0% 0 0% 0
2009 2013 2009 2013

East Europe European Union

100% 10 100% 20

75% 75%

50% 50%

25% 25%

0% 0 0% 10
2009 2013 2009 2013

North America South America

100% 20 100% 10

75% 75%

50% 10 50%

25% 25%

0% 0 0% 0
2009 2013 2009 2013

Diesel Gasoline Hybrid Total volume (R-axis in millions of units) Source: PwC Autofacts 2010 Q2

PricewaterhouseCoopers I 259
Regional Automotive Practice Lead Partners

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International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of PwCIL or
any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the
acts or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind
them in any way. No member firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor
can it control the exercise of another member firm's professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL
in any way.'

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Regional Automotive Practice Lead Partners


Global Europe Central & Eastern Europe
Richard Hanna Harald Kayser Matthew Pottle
richard.hanna@us.pwc.com harald.kayser@de.pwc.com matthew.pottle@cz.pwc.com
North America South America Asia Pacific
David Breen Marcelo Cioffi Alan Yam
david.j.breen@us.pwc.com marcelo.cioffi@br.pwc.com alan.yam@cn.pwc.com
Assurance Services Tax and Legal Services Global
Global Automotive Global Automotive Pricewaterhousecoopers
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richard.hanna@us.pwc.com horst.raettig@de.pwc.com calum.j.macrae@uk.pwc.com

Visit our website at www.pwc.com/auto

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© 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. “PricewaterhouseCoopers” and “PwC” refer to the network of member firms
of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL). Each member firm is a separate legal entity and does not act as agent of
PwCIL or any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not responsible or liable for the acts or
omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind them in any way. No member
firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another member firm’s
professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way. DT-10-0069