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Paper Of Probability Theory

Lecturer : Prihatin Ningsih Sagala,S.Pd.,M.Si

MINI RESEARCH
“ APPLICATION OF OPPORTUNITIES IN HELS HANDS SUITES
STONE - PAPER – SCISSORS ”

Compiled By :

PUTRI INDAH LESTARI ( 4163312022 )

WINONI CHARIZA ( 4163312031 )

MATHEMATICS DEPARTEMENT

FACULTY OF MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCES

STATE UNIVERSITY OF MEDAN

2017
PREFACE
Praise and thanks to the presence of God Almighty because with His grace was, so
that this task can be completed. The preparation of this paper carried out as one of the
requirements to fulfill the task subjects the value of Concepts in Solvents and
Bioorganic

Finally, as befits a human being who has a lot of limitations, if there are errors
authors expect criticism and constructive suggestions that can then be better.
Expectations and my goal in completing the paper is to be useful and can add knowledge
to those who read it. For all the attention, prayers and support of all colleagues, I’m so
thankful.

Medan, 30th November 2017

Authors
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE ................................................................................................................................. 2
PART I : PRELIMINARY ...................................................................................................... 4
A. BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................ 4
B. FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM ..................................................................................... 4
C. PURPOSE ................................................................................................................................... 4
PART II : LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................... 5
A. DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY ............................................................................................ 5
B. APPLICATION PROBABILITY IN DAILY LIFE ................................................................... 5
C. STONE-PAPER-SCISSORS’ GAME ........................................................................................ 7
PART III : RESEARCH METHOD ...................................................................................... 8
A. RESEARCH DESIGN ................................................................................................................ 8
B. RESEARCH SUBJECT .............................................................................................................. 8
C. METHOD OF COLLECTING DATA ....................................................................................... 8
D. DATA ANALYSIS METHOD ................................................................................................... 8
PART IV : DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................... 9
A. PREPARATION RESEARCH ................................................................................................... 9
B. MATERIALIZATION OF RESEARCH .................................................................................... 9
C. RESEARCH RESULT ................................................................................................................ 9
PART V : FINALTY ............................................................................................................. 11
A. CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................................... 11
B. SUGGESTION ......................................................................................................................... 11
PART I

PRELIMINARY
A. BACKGROUND
Stone-Scissors-Paper is a two-man game. This game is often used for random selection, as
well as throwing coins, dice, and others. Some games and sports use it to determine which
participants are playing first. Sometimes it is also used to determine roles in role playing, as
well as used as a means of gambling. This game is played in different parts of the world. Among
the children of Indonesia, this game is also known as "Suwit Japan". In Indonesia is also known
as a similar game called suwit.

There are three hand signals in this game. The stone is depicted by the clenched hands, the
scissors portrayed by the index finger and center, the paper is represented by open arms. The
goal of the game is to beat the opponent to play. The standard rules are rock beat scissors,
scissors beat paper, and paper beat rocks. If both players issue the same gesture, then the game
is repeated. Sometimes players use the system repeatedly means once the victory is not enough
to stop the game. For example a player who wins 5 times in advance becomes a winner.

B. FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM


What the Application of the game of scissors paper stone ?

C. PURPOSE
This research is conducted in order to fulfill the final task of “Probability Theory” Course,
and to make the writer to conduct mini research. Mini research is expected to provide an
overview of qualitative research.
PART II

LITERATURE REVIEW

A. DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY
Opportunity theory is a branch of mathematics concerned with opportunities, analysis of
random phenomena. The main objects of opportunity theory are random variables, stochastic
processes, and events: a non-deterministic mathematical abstraction of measurable events or
quantities that can be either single events or develop over time in seemingly random modes. If
individual coins throw or dice rolls are considered random events, then if repeated sequences
of random events will show certain patterns, which can be learned and predicted. Two
representative mathematical results illustrate the pattern is the law of large numbers and the
central limit theorem.

As the basis of mathematics for statistics, probability theory is important for many human
activities which involves quantitative analysis of large sets of data. The method of opportunity
theory also applies to complex system descriptions given only partial knowledge of their state,
as in statistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth-century physics is the nature of the
odds of physical phenomena on the atomic scale, described in quantum mechanics.

B. APPLICATION PROBABILITY IN DAILY LIFE


Opportunity is a field of mathematics that studies the possibility of the emergence of
something by way of calculation and experiment. Opportunities in everyday life are also often
used to help human activity. Here are some of the benefits and usefulness of opportunities in
everyday life:

1. Helping in the Right Decision Making

Better decision-making is meant that no decision is certain because the next life no one can
predict its certainty from now, because the information obtained is not perfect. Therefore, by
using opportunities we can seek out the possibilities that might occur so that we can make the
right decisions.

2. To predict what will happen

Indeed, we can not fully predict what will happen next because it is God's secret. However,
if we have predictions about the future, surely we can face the possibility that has been
predicted well and not panicked. Consider the following example:
In everyday life we often hear the prediction of rainfall in the form of qualitative opportunities
such as "the possibility of a little tomorrow rain", or in the form of quantitative such as "the
possibility of tomorrow rain about 30%". It is clear here that talking about our chances of being
confronted in an uncertain condition, but we are given only a hint or a picture of how much we
believe that an event can happen. The greater the value of the opportunity resulting from a
calculation the greater our belief that the event will occur. An example is when doni wants to
go to his friend's house, he sees the sky in a cloudy state, the clouds change color to dark, the
wind is firmer than usual and the sun is not as bright as usual. How should Doni's actions be?

When Doni saw the situation like that, then for a moment he thought to cancel his intention to
go to his friend's house. This is because he hypothesizes that it will be rainy soon and it is
unlikely that today will not rain, given the apparent natural phenomena. The probability in the
story is the probability of rain fall and the chance of rain fall.

3. To Minimize Losses

With opportunities, we can minimize losses. This is by predicting what will happen next
and taking precautions for what we have predicted. Consider the following example:

As a specific example, it was taken the wholesale problem of fruit selling strawbarry fruit. This
fruit has a limited selling time, in the sense that if it is not sold on the day of delivery, it will
not be sold the next day. If it is assumed that the price of taking a strawberry basket is $ 20,
and the wholesaler will sell it for $ 50 a basket. How much inventory do everyday wholesalers
need to take in order to risk minimum losses, or to maximize profits? This can be solved by the
concept of opportunity.

4. Used in Economics

The actuary act is a combination of science of opportunity, mathematics, statistics, finance,


and computer programming. Actuarial is a formal discipline that studies about long term
insurance, such as life insurance and health insurance. Without intending to oppose the god,
the actuary seeks to describe well the formulas whenever a person must make a claim against
his insurance, so the actuary can describe formulas for calculating the value of the premium
and the value of claims analytically, not intuition. So that insurance companies achieve profits
without harming customers.
Recent research shows that actuarial measures can not only be applied to insurance, but
on criminology analysis. Actuarial models are able to better describe the chance of the
perpetrator by the type of crime, age, education and ethnicity of the perpetrator.

5. Used in Psychology

Psychology is social science but it does not mean in psychology does not use mathematics.
Usually the mathematical model that is often used is statistics. But that does not mean other
mathematical models are not used. Here I want to describe the mathematical model of
opportunity. In junior high and high school, of course we have studied opportunities.

C. STONE-PAPER-SCISSORS’ GAME
In an experiment, experts from Zhejiang University said players who won the first round in
the 'paper scissors' game would remain in their winning strategy. While the losers tend to move
on to other strategies with the sequence of rock-paper-scissors. This is what he later called
"persistent cyclic flows", the key to this theory.

Zhijian also explained how this theory works. Such as there are three innings in this game.
In the first half player A and player B will use the strategy at random. When player A uses
stone and player B uses paper, then player A will lose in the first round.

In the next round, player A will assume that player B uses the same strategy, paper. And
therefore, player A will use scissors to win. It happens too, so player A wins in the second
round. Furthermore, since player B is defeated, player A can assume that his opponent will
replace the strategy with a rock-paper-scissors sequence. Because previously player B uses
paper, then he will use scissors. So player A must use a stone to win. To prove his theory,
Zhijian used 72 students to play this game. From field experiments, Zhijian found that some
students have their own strategies, thus forming their own patterns.

However, it turns out that few can prove the truth of this Zhijian theory. Two-thirds of the
students remain consistent in their theories. So until now, the theory found Zhijian is what gets
more wins from the game 'rock paper scissors'.
PART III

RESEARCH METHOD

A. RESEARCH DESIGN
This study was conducted to reveal the strategy of the game of paper scissors rock. This
research uses qualitative method which is a research design that is natural, in the sense that the
researcher does not try to manipulate the research setting, but to study the object / to human.

The reason for using qualitative research methods is based on the opinion of Alsa (2003) that
qualitative research is generally used if researchers are interested to explore and understand a
central phenomenon, such as a process or event. The data that emerges in this qualitative
research are in the form of words, and a series of numbers. The ways that researchers use to
obtain data is to play the game directly

B. RESEARCH SUBJECT
The subject of research is 2 bilingual students of mathematics education named Putri Indah
Lestari and Winoni Chariza.

C. METHOD OF COLLECTING DATA


Method of data collection using video to be documented in attachment (Listed on CD-R)

D. DATA ANALYSIS METHOD


Qualitative data analysis techniques performed in accordance with the case study approach,
so that the analysis of data used by reviewing the answers collected that can be obtained from
research subjects. The answers are organized by identifying and categorizing according to the
research objectives. This is in accordance with the basic steps of case study research disclosed
by Sudjarwo (2001).
PART IV

DISCUSSION
A. PREPARATION RESEARCH
The first step of this research is to collect and study a number of literature from books,
journals and articles related to the topic of Opportunity. Before researchers do research then
first prepare the instruments used are, recording devices and other instruments to support the
smooth running of the research. Then the researchers searched for subjects who met the criteria
for playing a Rock-paper-scissors game.

B. MATERIALIZATION OF RESEARCH
Researchers establish good communication to facilitate the research process. Then the
researchers chose the appropriate place to carry out the game so participants can play smoothly.
The study took place on Thursday, November 23, 2017 In the building 05. Bilingual
Mathematics Education class. Before playing the game, make a suggestion for the game Stone-
Paper-Scissors

C. RESEARCH RESULT
Participants perform a hand-held game with the word rock-paper-scissors. The results can
be seen in the following table.

PLAYER B
PAPER SCISSORS STONE
PLAYER A PAPER SERIES/SAME B WINNER A WINNER
SCISSORS A WINNER SERIES/SAME B WINNER
STONE B WINNER A WINNER SERIES/SAME

1.1 RESEARCHERS WILL DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY OF :

1. Player A as Winner
2. Player B as Winner
3. Game Ended as Series ( Player A same with Player B)

1.2 BASED ON THE GAME RESEARCH TABLE ABOVE, THE RESEARCHER FOUND THAT :

1. Much of the sample space is n ( S ) = 9


2. Much of instances of player A wins are n ( A ) = 3
3. many instances of player B wins are n ( B ) = 3
4. many game events ending the series are n ( C ) = 3

THEREFORE, IN THE OPPORTUNITY OF HANDS SUIT WORDS WITH STONE – PAPER -


SCISSORS ARE :

PLAYER A WINNER OPPURTUNITY IS :

𝒏 (𝑨 )
P(A) = So, the Oppurtunity Winner of player A is 1/3
𝒏(𝑺)

𝟑
=
𝟗
𝟏
=
𝟑
PLAYER B WINNER OPPURTUNITY IS :

𝒏(𝑩)
P(B) = So, the Oppurtunity Winner of player B is 1/3
𝒏(𝑺)

𝟑
=
𝟗
𝟏
=
𝟑

GAME ENDED AS SERIES ( PLAYER A SAME WITH PLAYER B ) IS :

𝒏(𝑪)
P(C) = So, the Oppurtunity winner of A same with B (series) is 1/3
𝒏(𝑺)

𝟑
=
𝟗
𝟏
=
𝟑
PART V

FINALTY
A. CONCLUSIONS
So many applications in everyday life such as in the field of work, health, finance, business,
and even the opportunity is also found in simple game as done in this mini research is game
hand suit stone-paper-scissors. Implementation of this game can be done by all circles
especially done by children.

B. SUGGESTION
This mini research is expected to add our insight into the application of the application of
opportunities in everyday life. Especially applying this game is mostly done by the children
while playing, so they know the purpose and goal of the game.