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economie

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You are on page 1of 8

1. Consider the following selected regression output for predicting Y based on Age:

Intercept -1.1759 2.063543871 -0.5699 0.581

Age 0.6120 0.139124099 4.3992 0.001

a. -26.35

b. -22.90

c. 11.06

d. 10.08

e. none of the above

2. Below is the output report for a regression analysis that relates a company’s Sales to

Innovation Spending.

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

R Square ?

Adjusted R 0.831

Square

Standard Error 2.50

Observations 14

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 424.450 424.450 67.885 0.00001

Residual 12 75.030 6.253

Total 13

Error

Intercept 67.684 2.230 15.908 0.003

Innovation 3.174 0.362 5.006 0.001

a. 0.603

b. 0.874

c. 0.761

d. 0.850

e. 0.803

1

2) Which of the following statements is correct?

$67.684.

b. If the company spends additional $1 on innovation, innovation increases on average by

$67.684.

c. If the company spends additional $1 on innovation, sales decrease on average by $3.174.

d. If the company spends additional $1 on innovation, sales increase on average by $3.174.

3. Answer the following questions pertaining to the attached regression output below. The

regression was performed to predict the Sales based on the Income.

2) Interpret the value of the coefficient for Income (X).

3) How much of the variability in Sales is explained by the model?

4) How is R-Squared computed?

5) Is the overall regression model significant?

6) Is there a significant trend?

7) Predict the Sales for income equal to 17 and 18, respectively.

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.8808

R Square 0.7758

Adjusted R Square 0.7598

Standard Error 48.8155

Observations 16

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 115424.56 115424.56 48.44 0.00

Residual 14 33361.38 2382.96

Total 15 148785.94

Error

Intercept -15.7863 44.0015 -0.3588 0.7251 -110.1603 78.5877

Income 4.1920 0.6023 6.9597 0.0000 2.9001 5.4838

4. Consider the regression output to predict Sales ($ thousands) based on Ad Expenses, Bonus,

and Sales Force.

2

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.997263

R Square

Adjusted R Square 0.992712

Standard Error 16.97083

Observations 13

ANOVA

Significance

df SS MS F F

Regression 3 157212.9 545.8608 1.7E-10

Residual 9 2592.082 288.0091

Total 12 474230.8

Coefficients Error t Stat P-value 95% 95%

Intercept -119.706 53.41416 -2.24109 0.051751 -240.537 1.125297

Ad Expense ($000) 22.38734 9.269338 2.415203 0.038916 1.418637 43.35604

Bonus ($) 0.572689 0.228156 2.510083 0.033306 0.056566 1.088813

Sales Force 66.85939 12.28413 5.442745 0.00041 39.07076 94.64803

1) Based on the above sales multiple regression model, write the regression equation.

2) Compute Regression SS.

3) Compute R square.

4) Predict Sales when Ad Expense is $ 15000, Bonus is $200, and there are 35 people in the

sales force.

5. For the following set of forecasts (17, 20, 25, 31, 39) and actual values (19, 24, 28, 32, 38),

calculate the MAD.

a. 2.2

b. 2.5

c. 2.8

d. 3.1

e. 3.4

6. Three forecasting models, all using the same data set, are being compared using their MAD

values. The MAD value for Model X is 25.6; Model Y is 20.4; Model Z is 15.2. Which

forecasting model is considered the best?

a. Model X

b. Model Y

c. Model Z

d. Additional information is needed.

e. The MAD cannot be used to determine which model is best.

7. Increasing the number of periods in a moving average does not necessarily increase the

accuracy of the forecast. (True/False)

3

8. Forecast using the following methods: Naïve, 2-period MA (moving average),

3-period MA, and Exponential Smoothing with alpha = 0.35

Find BIAS, MAD, MAPE, and MSE for each forecasting method.

1) Naïve Method

Period Sales Forecast Error Abs Error % Error Squared Error

1 7 N/A

2 6

3 8

4 6

5 8

6

BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

Period Sales Forecast Error Abs Error % Error Squared Error

1 7 N/A

2 6 N/A

3 8

4 6

5 8

6

BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

Period Sales Forecast Error Abs Error % Error Squared Error

1 7 N/A

2 6 N/A

3 8 N/A

4 6

5 8

6

BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

4) Exponential smoothing

alpha = 0.35

Period Sales Forecast Error Abs Error % Error Squared Error

1 7 N/A

2 6

3 8

4 6

5 8

6

BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

4

9. If actual sales for a time period are 2400 units and the seasonal index for this time period is

1.2, find the deseasonalized sales for this period.

a. 2880

b. 1021.2

c. 1080.3

d. 1108.8

e. 2000

10. The seasonal factors (also known as indices) for the first three quarters for the demand of

snow blowers are 2.5, 0.1, 0.1. What is the seasonal factor for quarter 4?

a. 3

b. 1.3

c. 1

d. -1.3

e. 3.1

11. The Sales trend has been modeled as: Sales = 3t + 100, where t = time in quarters, beginning

in Q1 2005. Seasonality for the four quarterly periods is given in the table below. Find the

seasonalized forecast for Q4 of 2007.

Quarter #1 0.9522

Quarter #2 1.0000

Quarter #3 0.9888

Quarter#4

a. 136.00

b. 113.18

c. 126.95

d. 139.04

e. 144.02

5

Solutions

1. c). The prediction equation is Ŷ = -1.1759 + 0.6120 * Age. By plugging Age = 20 into the

equation, the answer is Ŷ = -1.1759 + 0.6120 * 20 = 11.06.

2. 1) d). R Square = RSS/TSS. By using RSS = 424.450 and TSS = 424.450 + 75.030 = 499.48,

2) R Square = 424.450 / 499.48 = 0.8497.

3) d.

2) Coefficient of X is the average change in Y for a unit change in X. Here it means that for

every unit income increase, sales will increase by 4.192.

3) 77.58%, which is the R-squared value.

4) It is computed by RSS/TSS=115424.56/148785.94.

5) Yes, because significance of F is 0.000, which is lower than an alpha of 0.05.

6) Yes, because the p-value for income is 0.0000.

7) At x=17, y = 17*4.19 -15.78 = 55.45 , and at x=18, y = 59.67

2) 471638.7. RSS = TSS – ESS = 474230.8 – 2592.1 = 471638.7.

3) 0.9945. R square = RSS/ TSS = 471638.7 / 474230.8 = 0.9945.

4) Predicted Sales = -119.706 + (22.39 * 15) + (0.57 * 200) + (66.86 * 35) = $ 2,670.24

thousands, or $ 2,670,240.

5. a.

Actual Forecast Error Abs Error

19 17 2 2

24 20 4 4

28 25 3 3

32 31 1 1

38 39 -1 1

7. True.

6

8.

= 6 - 7 = -1

Error = Yt − Ft

1) Naïve Method

Period Sales Forecast Error Abs Error % Error Error^2

1 7 N/A =1/6=0.1667

2 6 7 -1 1 16.67% 1

3 8 6 2 2 25.00% 4

Ft = Yt −1

4 6 8 -2 2 33.33% 4

5 8 6 2 2 25.00% 4

0.25 1.75 25.00% 3.25

BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

= Average of Errors

= (-1 + 2 + (-2) + 2) / 4

=1/4

2) 2-period moving average = 0.25

1 7 N/A

2 6 N/A

Yt −1 + Yt − 2

3 8 6.5 1.5 1.5 18.75% 2.25 Ft =

4 6 7 -1 1 16.67% 1 2

5 8 7 1 1 12.50% 1

0.50 1.17 15.97% 1.417

BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

= (7+ 6) / 2

= 13 / 2

= 6.5

Period Sales Forecast Error Abs Error % Error S. Error

1 7 N/A

2 6 N/A Yt −1 + Yt − 2 + Yt −3

3 8 N/A Ft =

3

4 6 7 -1.00 1.00 16.67% 1

5 8 6.66667 1.33 1.33 16.67% 1.78

0.167 1.167 16.67% 1.389

BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

= (7 + 6 + 8) / 3

= 21 / 3

=7

4) Exponential smoothing

alpha = 0.35

Period Sales Forecast Error Abs Error % Error S. Error

1 7 N/A

2 6 7 -1 1 16.67% 1.00

3 8 6.65 1.35 1.35 16.88% 1.82 Ft = αYt −1 + (1 − α ) Ft −1

4 6 7.12 -1.12 1.12 18.71% 1.26

5 8 6.73 1.27 1.27 15.88% 1.61

0.124 1.186 17.03% 1.424

BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

= 2.8 + 4.3225 = 2.1 + 4.55

= 7.12 = 6.65

7

9. e. 2400/1.2 = 2000.

11. e. S.I. for Q4 = 4 – (0.9522 + 1 + 0.9888) = 1.059. De-seasonalized forecast for Q4, 2007 is

found by plugging t = 12 in sales trend equation, sales = 3*12 + 100 = 136. Reseasonalized

forecast for the same quarter is = 136*S.I. for Q4 = 136*1.059 = 144.02.

8

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