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To: Interested Parties

From: Celinda Lake, Joshua Ulibarri, and Meryl O'Bryan, Lake Research Partners
Re: Polling Data Regarding the Democratic Primary in New Mexico’s 1st
Congressional Districti
Date: May 15, 2018

A recent survey among likely June 2018 Democratic primary voters in New Mexico’s 1st
Congressional District shows that the race is now dead even within the margin of error with
as many voters undecided as supporting any candidate. Former U.S. Attorney Damon
Martinez shows a lot of momentum, pulling even after being farther behind in early
released polling. If Martinez is able to raise the resources to help communicate his
message and for GOVT efforts, he will be in strong position to win the Democratic
nomination.

Initial Ballot
25 27
23 20

5
Martinez Haaland Sedillo-Lopez Undecided Someone Else

Here are the key findings:


Lake Research Partners
1101 17th Street NW, • This is a competitive primary, and the Democratic primary candidates are
Suite 301
Washington, DC 20036
currently tied within the margin of error. Twenty-three percent of voters vote for
Damon Martinez, 20% vote for Deb Haaland, 25% vote for Antoinette Sedillo-Lopez,
Tel: 202.776.9066 and 5% vote for someone else. The race is dead even, and with 27% of voters
Fax: 202.776.9074
currently undecided, there are plenty of votes available for any candidate to take
Partners
and win the nomination.
Celinda Lake
Alysia Snell • Martinez is showing a lot of momentum. Fifty-nine percent have recently seen,
David Mermin heard, or read something recently about Martinez, and 66% of these voters say
Dr. Robert G. Meadow
that whatever they saw, heard, or read has made them more favorable towards
Daniel Gotoff
Joshua Ulibarri
Martinez. This demonstrates that Martinez’s ads, including the ads released by
VoteVets, have really broken through to voters.
NM-01/Democratic Primary – May 2018 2

In summary, this is currently a tie race, but given Martinez’s strong momentum, he is in
strong position to win this race. Voters are seeing his ads, and they are reacting positively
to them.

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To discuss these findings more, please contact Lake Research Partners’ Celinda Lake or
Joshua Ulibarri at (202) 776-9066.

i
Methodology: Lake Research Partners designed and administered this IVR and live calling survey. It
was conducted May 13 - 14, 2018. The survey reached a total of 390 registered voters (103 were
reached by cell phone) in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District. Telephone numbers for the sample
were generated from a list of registered voters in New Mexico. The data were weighted slightly by
gender, region, age, race, turnout score, and partisan score. The margin of error for the total sample
is +/- 5% and larger for sub-groups.