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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 28th MAY 2018, 5 PM EST

Ontario Election
Voter Intentions
28th May 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between May 26th three levels of government, President and CEO
and May 27th, 2018 among a sample of Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
1682 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Ontario. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Respondents were interviewed on landlines Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
a national telephone directory compiled Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
by Mainstreet Research from various election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
commercially available sources and random the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
digit dialing. The part of the survey that and the Alabama special election in 2017.
dialed from the directory was conducted as a Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
stratified dial of the following regions; Toronto Association for Public Opinion Research and
(also known as the 416 region), the Greater meets international and Canadian publication
Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), standards.
South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario,
Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the CONTACT INFORMATION
case of random digit dials, respondents were In Ottawa:
asked the additional question of what region Quito Maggi, President
of the province they resided in. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet In Toronto:
Research and was not sponsored by a third Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
party. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.39% Find us online at:
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
(full methodology appears at the end of this facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
report)
NDP SURGE PAST PCs INTO THE LEAD

28 May 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The Ontario NDP have a narrow lead over the Progressive Conservatives
and have the momentum in the Ontario election, a new Mainstreet Research poll has found.

“It’s official – Doug Ford has blown the large lead he had in March and the Ontario election is a
competitive affair,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The question facing
Ontarians is whether Ford or Andrea Horwath will get the keys to government for the next four years.”

The poll represents the last two days of Mainstreet’s Ontario Daily Tracker and was fielded on May 26th
and May 27th – entirely before the Ontario Leaders’ Debate. The poll surveyed 1682 Ontarians and has
a margin of error of +/- 2.39% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

Among decided and leaning voters, the NDP currently enjoy 39.3% support (+10% from Mainstreet’s
May 18th poll), while the PCs are currently at 37.3% (-4.6%). The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen
Wynne are at 16% (-6.3%). While the Greens led by Mike Schreiner are at 4.5% (-0.5%).

“Given where the Liberals are at in terms of popular support, it is looking more and more likely that
Ontario will elect a majority government – the only question is whether it’s the PCs or the NDP that will
form it”, continued Maggi. “It is doubtful that the Liberals will win more than a handful of seats which
very much narrows the path for a minority government.”

The NDP lead the PCs in Toronto, South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and the North. The PCs
have significant leads in Eastern Ontario and in the seat-rich GTA.

“What our daily tracker and our riding polls have been showing is that there is a large divide between
urban and rural Ontario where the NDP are leading in urban areas and the PCs dominating in the rural
parts of the province,” continued Maggi. “Because there are more seats in the rural areas, we think that
Ford and the PCs still have the edge over the NDP – just.”

“We think the NDP will need to go up another three points or so to win. Otherwise, Horwath could find
herself winning the popular vote but in opposition,” Maggi continued.

The poll also points to a significant age divide among voters, which could spell trouble for Doug Ford.

“The PCs are well behind the NDP among voters aged 18-34, the largest voting bloc in Ontario but also
the least likely to vote,” concluded Maggi. “But the NDP are very competitive among voters over the
age of 65, who are the most likely to vote, and also lead among voters aged 36 to 49.”

“If these trends continue, the NDP can well win the election without the millennial vote coming out to
vote in droves.”

Mainstreet Research is doing daily tracking of the Ontario election and is available to subscribers for
the entire writ period. More information can be found at https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ontario-
daily-tracker/

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters
party would you vote for?

12.6% 14.1%

2%
3.8%

All Voters

33.5%

34.2%

Decided and Leaning Voters

2.4%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens
4.5% 16%
Another Party Undecided

Decided and Leaning Voters
39.3%

37.9%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)

25.5%
28.7%
Toronto

40.9%
3.2%
1.7%

18.0%
42.1%
GTA

32.4%
5.0%
2.5%

14.6%
43.7%
East

33.2%
5.6%
2.9%

6.9%
South Central

34.6%
50.3%
3.8%
4.4%

8.4%
Southwestern

40.9%
44.4%
4.7%
1.7%

12.5%
36.3%
North

44.5%
4.1%
2.6%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Liberals PCs NDP Green Another Party
Which party, if any, would be your second
choice?
Liberals PCs

6.9%
12.6%

31%

26%

Liberals
NDPLiberals PCs

57.2%

0.5%

6.4%
8.5% 6.8%
49.4%

NDP 19.6% Greens 3.1%
25.2%

34.8%
PCs NDP Greens Another Party No Second Choice Liberals NDP Greens Another Party No Second Choice
20.2%
20.8%
1.3%

30.2%

1.2% NDP Liberals
1.3% 43.9%

NDP7.8% Greens
21.6% 15%

16%

57.3%
8.5%

22.7%
18% 26.1%

Liberals PCs
PCs NDP
Greens Greens AnotherNo
Another Party Party No Second Choice
SecondNDP
Choice
Liberals PCs Greens Another Party No Second Choice Liberals PCs Another Party No Second Choice
How likely are you to change your vote from
your first choice to your second choice?
berals PCs

10% 9.5% 9%
15.8%

12%

29.8%
Greens
Liberals 20.9% PCs

21.2%
48.3%

15.6% 15.5%
DP Greens
23.6%

7.9% 6.3%
12.3%
Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely 19.2%
Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely

Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure
20%

Greens
25.4%
28% 24.7%
NDP Greens
41.4%

28.6%

24.4%
15.6%
15.2%

Very Likely Very
Somewhat Likely Likely
Somewhat Somewhat
Unlikely Likely Somewhat
Very Likely Unlikely
Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely

Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure
Breakouts
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 12.7% 12.5% 14.3% 17.8% 22.6% 15.5% 12.7% 6.7% 7.6% 10.9%
Progressive Conservatives led by
33.5% 37.3% 29.8% 28.1% 32.4% 39% 34.9% 26.2% 36.3% 39.3% 31% 35.6% 32%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 34.2% 30.1% 38.1% 40.7% 37% 28.3% 29.3% 36.1% 27.7% 30.1% 44% 38.4% 36.2%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 3.8% 4.1% 3.4% 4.2% 3.4% 4.3% 2.8% 2.9% 4.3% 3.7% 2.8% 4.5% 3.8%
Another Party 2% 2.8% 1.2% 1.5% 2.1% 1.8% 2.7% 1.1% 2.1% 2.3% 4.2% 1.6% 1.9%
Undecided 12.6% 11.7% 13.4% 12.8% 12.5% 12.4% 12.6% 11.1% 14.1% 12.0% 11.2% 12.3% 15.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1682 891 791 329 416 469 468 466 383 264 93 315 161
Weighted Frequency 1682 827 855 472 423 462 324 391 462 225 150 351 103

(leaning and undecided voters)
18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 15% 14.8% 15.1% 13.9% 13.3% 15.1% 18.6% 24% 16.7% 13.8% 6.7% 7.9% 11.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by
35.6% 39.6% 31.8% 30.2% 36.1% 39.8% 36.9% 27% 39% 41.4% 33.6% 38.6% 33.4%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 37.1% 32.5% 41.5% 44.5% 39.3% 31% 32% 38.6% 30% 31.6% 48.9% 42% 40.8%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 4.2% 4.5% 3.9% 4.5% 3.8% 5.1% 2.9% 3% 4.6% 5.4% 3.7% 4.5% 3.8%
Another Party 2.2% 3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.8% 1.6% 2.3% 2.8% 4.2% 1.6% 2.4%
Undecided 6% 5.6% 6.3% 5.2% 5.2% 6.8% 6.8% 5.9% 7.3% 5.1% 2.8% 5.5% 8.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1682 891 791 329 416 469 468 466 383 264 93 315 161
Weighted Frequency 1682 827 855 472 423 462 324 391 462 225 150 351 103

(decided and leaning voters)
18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 16% 15.8% 16.1% 14.7% 14.1% 16.2% 19.9% 25.5% 18% 14.6% 6.9% 8.4% 12.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by
37.9% 42% 34% 31.9% 38.1% 42.6% 39.7% 28.7% 42.1% 43.7% 34.6% 40.9% 36.3%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 39.3% 34.3% 44.2% 46.9% 41.4% 33.3% 34.3% 40.9% 32.4% 33.2% 50.3% 44.4% 44.5%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 4.5% 4.8% 4.1% 4.7% 4% 5.5% 3.1% 3.2% 5% 5.6% 3.8% 4.7% 4.1%
Another Party 2.4% 3.2% 1.6% 1.8% 2.5% 2.3% 3.1% 1.7% 2.5% 2.9% 4.4% 1.7% 2.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1579 840 739 312 395 435 437 438 354 251 91 297 148
Weighted Frequency 1579 776 803 443 398 434 304 367 434 211 141 330 96

Which party, if any, would be your second choice?
18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen
23.8% 23.7% 23.8% 28.5% 25.8% 17.9% 22.6% 30.2% 25.8% 19.7% 21.3% 18.3% 21.2%
Wynne
PCs led by Doug Ford 17.6% 17.7% 17.5% 19.1% 17.4% 17.7% 15.6% 17% 20.1% 14.8% 10.4% 19% 20.5%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 21.2% 21.5% 20.8% 17% 20% 24.5% 24.2% 25.1% 20.3% 21.2% 14.3% 21.4% 19%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 11% 10.1% 11.8% 17.5% 9.6% 8.6% 6.6% 6.9% 7.9% 12.8% 18.8% 15% 11.1%
Another Party 2.9% 4.1% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 2.2% 3.9% 1.6% 3% 4.6% 2.9% 2.8% 4.4%
No Second Choice 23.6% 22.9% 24.2% 15.4% 24% 29.1% 27.1% 19.1% 22.8% 26.9% 32.4% 23.4% 23.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1577 839 738 310 395 435 437 438 354 251 91 297 146
Weighted Frequency 1577 775 802 443 397 433 304 367 434 211 141 329 96
Which party, if any, would be your second choice? (continued)
All Liberals PCs NDP Greens
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 23.8% - 6.9% 43.9% 20.2%
PCs led by Doug Ford 17.6% 12.6% - 18% 15%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 21.2% 49.4% 26% - 26.1%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 11% 6.4% 6.8% 16% -
Another Party 2.9% 0.5% 3.1% 1.3% 8.5%
No Second Choice 23.6% 31% 57.2% 20.8% 30.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1577 267 609 595 68
Weighted Frequency 1577 252 598 620 70

How likely are you to change your vote from your first choice to your second choice?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto GTA East South Central Southwestern North
Very Likely 9.4% 10.5% 8.4% 13.5% 7.7% 8.4% 7.1% 7.2% 14.5% 8.6% 9.5% 6.5% 6.8%
Somewhat Likely 18.1% 18.2% 18% 16.7% 24% 15.4% 16.1% 19.5% 20% 16% 17.6% 16.1% 15.8%
Somewhat Unlikely 22.6% 20.2% 24.8% 22.7% 20.2% 25.5% 21.3% 26.1% 17% 23.5% 17.5% 27.7% 21.8%
Very Unlikely 40.6% 42.6% 38.6% 38.1% 37.8% 40.5% 47.8% 38.8% 37.4% 45% 44.2% 39.7% 49.6%
Not Sure 9.4% 8.5% 10.2% 8.9% 10.2% 10.3% 7.7% 8.4% 11.1% 6.9% 11.1% 10% 6.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1196 642 554 260 301 315 320 351 272 181 59 225 108
Weighted Frequency 1196 588 608 336 301 328 231 278 329 160 107 250 73

All Liberals PCs NDP Greens
Very Likely 9.4% 15.8% 9% 6.3% 12.3%
Somewhat Likely 18.1% 20.9% 12% 20% 24.7%
Somewhat Unlikely 22.6% 23.6% 21.2% 24.4% 15.2%
Very Unlikely 40.6% 29.8% 48.3% 41.4% 28.6%
Not Sure 9.4% 10% 9.5% 7.9% 19.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1196 232 380 498 56
Weighted Frequency 1196 216 375 518 58
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(first four responses randomized)
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
Undecided

Which party are you leaning towards?
(only asked to respondents who said they were undecided in the previous question)
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
Undecided

Which party, if any, would be your second choice?
(only asked to respondents who indicated a party preference in the first question)
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
No Second Choice

How likely are you to change your vote from your first choice to your second choice?
(only asked to respondents who indicated a second choice in the previous question)
Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely
Not Sure

What is your gender?
Male
Female

What is your age group?
Under 18 years of age
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our
breakouts.
Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville
Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and
Greater Toronto Area Rideau Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between May 26th,
2018 and May 27th, 2018 among a sample of 1682 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Ontario. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following
regions: Toronto (also known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as
the 905 region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern
Ontario. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.39% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.28%, Females: +/- 3.48%,
18-34 age group: +/- 5.4%, 35-49 age group: +/- 4.8%, 50-64 age group: +/- 4.53%, 65+
age group: +/- 4.53%, Toronto: +/- 4.54%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 5.01%, South Central
Ontario: +/- 10.16%, Southwestern Ontario: +/- 5.52%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 6.03%, Northern
Ontario: +/- 7.72%

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls.