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June 2nd 2018, 2am PST www.tooclosetocall.

ca
Based on the latest polls by Abacus(26), Ipsos(26), Innovative(28), Pollara(28), Angus-Reid(28), HK(29), Forum(30), Research Co.(30), Ekos(30) and Mainstreet(tracker of 30)
OLP PC NDP Green
% 20.6 35.9 36.9 5.0
seats 5 68 51 0
chances of winning* 0.0% 70.9% 27.4% 0.0%
chances of a majority 0.0% 52.9% 15.3% 0.0% Probability to win the riding

OLP PC NDP Green OLP PC NDP Green


Ajax 30.8% 35.0% 30.9% 3.2% 22.20% 53.95% 23.85% 0.00%
Algoma—Manitoulin 6.6% 27.3% 62.9% 3.3% 0.00% 0.04% 99.96% 0.00%
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 26.4% 44.5% 25.2% 3.8% 1.87% 96.91% 1.22% 0.00%
Barrie—Innisfil 20.1% 43.4% 30.5% 6.0% 0.03% 92.63% 7.34% 0.00%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 19.5% 44.3% 29.2% 7.0% 0.16% 94.83% 5.01% 0.00%
Bay of Quinte 18.1% 44.4% 32.2% 5.3% 0.04% 90.39% 9.57% 0.00%
Beaches—East York 22.0% 19.7% 52.6% 5.7% 0.02% 0.01% 99.97% 0.00%
Brampton Centre 20.9% 30.9% 42.1% 6.2% 0.21% 10.60% 89.19% 0.00%
Brampton East 15.4% 18.1% 64.5% 2.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Brampton North 22.0% 29.8% 44.6% 3.6% 0.24% 4.80% 94.96% 0.00%
Brampton South 26.4% 33.0% 37.2% 3.5% 5.90% 29.70% 64.40% 0.00%
Brampton West 27.3% 28.7% 41.4% 2.6% 4.82% 7.11% 88.07% 0.00%
Brantford—Brant 17.3% 37.7% 40.7% 4.3% 0.06% 36.64% 63.30% 0.00%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 9.7% 52.0% 29.5% 8.8% 0.00% 99.31% 0.69% 0.00%
Burlington 24.3% 42.6% 28.8% 4.4% 1.15% 92.71% 6.14% 0.00%
Cambridge 22.5% 38.4% 33.2% 5.9% 0.11% 52.75% 47.14% 0.00%
Carleton 14.2% 54.3% 25.6% 5.9% 0.00% 99.85% 0.15% 0.00%
Chatham-Kent—Leamington 5.6% 41.2% 47.8% 5.3% 0.00% 24.99% 75.01% 0.00%
Davenport 26.2% 13.4% 55.1% 5.4% 0.10% 0.00% 99.90% 0.00%
Don Valley East 35.9% 32.1% 28.2% 3.8% 59.66% 28.21% 12.13% 0.00%
Don Valley North 30.6% 39.5% 26.2% 3.7% 13.77% 81.90% 4.33% 0.00%
Don Valley West 33.7% 39.9% 22.9% 3.5% 23.72% 75.00% 1.28% 0.00%
Dufferin—Caledon 15.4% 43.0% 25.2% 16.4% 0.00% 97.90% 2.10% 0.00%
Durham 16.9% 37.9% 41.1% 4.2% 0.00% 36.73% 63.27% 0.00%
Eglinton—Lawrence 32.3% 41.1% 23.1% 3.4% 15.18% 83.56% 1.26% 0.00%
Elgin—Middlesex—London 1.8% 51.5% 41.5% 5.1% 0.00% 83.97% 16.03% 0.00%
Essex 0.9% 24.7% 71.0% 3.4% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Etobicoke Centre 28.9% 40.5% 27.6% 3.0% 7.63% 86.51% 5.86% 0.00%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 27.2% 40.9% 27.5% 4.4% 4.84% 90.28% 4.88% 0.00%
Etobicoke North 23.0% 39.4% 35.2% 2.4% 0.83% 69.91% 29.26% 0.00%
Flamborough—Glanbrook 17.1% 40.9% 37.1% 4.9% 0.07% 66.17% 33.76% 0.00%
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 30.7% 37.7% 28.0% 3.6% 18.59% 72.26% 9.15% 0.00%
Guelph 16.4% 28.4% 29.0% 26.3% 0.89% 37.94% 41.74% 19.43%
Haldimand—Norfolk 6.3% 55.6% 33.2% 5.0% 0.00% 99.02% 0.98% 0.00%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 17.8% 44.6% 33.1% 4.4% 0.01% 89.76% 10.23% 0.00%
Hamilton Centre 5.3% 16.2% 69.1% 9.4% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 13.4% 21.8% 60.7% 4.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton Mountain 11.5% 21.1% 63.0% 4.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 24.1% 31.0% 39.6% 5.4% 2.50% 16.44% 81.06% 0.00%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington 10.8% 45.3% 37.8% 6.1% 0.00% 78.15% 21.85% 0.00%
Humber River—Black Creek 23.4% 19.0% 55.7% 1.9% 0.01% 0.00% 99.99% 0.00%
Huron—Bruce 13.0% 44.3% 39.0% 3.7% 0.00% 71.30% 28.70% 0.00%
Kanata—Carleton 19.4% 46.6% 26.8% 7.1% 0.01% 98.62% 1.37% 0.00%
Kenora—Rainy River 5.0% 42.8% 49.2% 3.0% 0.00% 28.30% 71.70% 0.00%
Kiiwetinoong 0.7% 21.6% 73.9% 3.8% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Kingston and the Islands 19.9% 26.7% 45.5% 8.0% 0.15% 2.53% 97.32% 0.00%
King—Vaughan 30.7% 39.2% 26.8% 3.3% 14.74% 79.53% 5.73% 0.00%
Kitchener Centre 23.8% 31.4% 38.2% 6.6% 2.33% 21.05% 76.62% 0.00%
Kitchener—Conestoga 20.8% 41.0% 31.6% 6.6% 0.12% 84.99% 14.89% 0.00%
Kitchener South—Hespeler 20.9% 38.0% 34.6% 6.5% 0.30% 64.41% 35.29% 0.00%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 2.1% 50.6% 42.5% 4.8% 0.00% 79.70% 20.30% 0.00%
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 7.3% 52.4% 33.0% 7.3% 0.00% 98.12% 1.88% 0.00%
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
1.6% 61.3% 32.0% 5.2% 0.00% 99.85% 0.15% 0.00%
London—Fanshawe 2.1% 27.5% 66.1% 4.3% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
London North Centre 10.9% 34.8% 48.8% 5.6% 0.00% 8.34% 91.66% 0.00%
London West 5.4% 34.4% 56.0% 4.2% 0.00% 1.83% 98.17% 0.00%
Markham—Stouffville 28.5% 40.6% 26.9% 4.0% 7.70% 87.27% 5.03% 0.00%
Markham—Thornhill 30.5% 41.6% 25.2% 2.6% 10.26% 87.75% 1.99% 0.00%
Markham—Unionville 21.5% 48.5% 26.0% 4.0% 0.04% 99.32% 0.64% 0.00%
Milton 24.1% 43.3% 28.8% 3.8% 0.98% 93.93% 5.09% 0.00%
Mississauga Centre 31.3% 33.4% 32.0% 3.4% 26.85% 41.36% 31.79% 0.00%
Mississauga East—Cooksville 30.1% 35.1% 30.7% 4.1% 20.77% 55.95% 23.28% 0.00%
Mississauga—Erin Mills 29.6% 36.8% 31.0% 2.7% 14.60% 64.78% 20.62% 0.00%
Mississauga—Lakeshore 29.8% 40.4% 26.3% 3.5% 10.81% 84.56% 4.63% 0.00%
Mississauga—Malton 30.5% 31.0% 35.3% 3.2% 21.59% 23.65% 54.76% 0.00%
Mississauga—Streetsville 30.4% 36.2% 29.1% 4.3% 20.55% 63.41% 16.04% 0.00%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 12.2% 17.3% 68.9% 1.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nepean 22.0% 45.2% 27.0% 5.7% 0.23% 97.68% 2.09% 0.00%
Newmarket—Aurora 25.6% 43.3% 26.7% 4.4% 1.75% 95.44% 2.81% 0.00%
Niagara Centre 3.8% 30.1% 62.0% 4.2% 0.00% 0.07% 99.93% 0.00%
Niagara Falls 1.0% 35.4% 60.1% 3.5% 0.00% 0.61% 99.39% 0.00%
Niagara West 8.5% 51.9% 33.4% 6.1% 0.00% 97.46% 2.54% 0.00%
Nickel Belt 3.8% 21.5% 71.0% 3.7% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nipissing 9.6% 47.2% 39.1% 4.0% 0.00% 80.20% 19.80% 0.00%
Northumberland—Peterborough South 21.6% 41.5% 32.4% 4.5% 0.39% 83.32% 16.29% 0.00%
Oakville 28.5% 44.1% 23.3% 4.0% 4.23% 95.13% 0.64% 0.00%
Oakville North—Burlington 26.5% 43.1% 26.8% 3.7% 2.68% 93.96% 3.36% 0.00%
Orléans 33.0% 38.4% 24.6% 4.0% 26.76% 70.00% 3.24% 0.00%
Oshawa 4.3% 35.0% 56.7% 4.0% 0.00% 1.27% 98.73% 0.00%
Ottawa Centre 32.8% 22.6% 36.0% 8.7% 35.40% 2.85% 61.75% 0.00%
Ottawa South 30.7% 36.9% 27.6% 4.7% 21.36% 68.98% 9.66% 0.00%
Ottawa—Vanier 36.7% 27.0% 30.6% 5.7% 66.70% 9.81% 23.49% 0.00%
Ottawa West—Nepean 26.7% 37.9% 28.9% 6.6% 7.35% 79.19% 13.46% 0.00%
Oxford 8.1% 50.7% 36.2% 5.0% 0.00% 93.41% 6.59% 0.00%
Parkdale—High Park 22.6% 17.9% 54.0% 5.5% 0.01% 0.00% 99.99% 0.00%
Parry Sound—Muskoka 8.8% 45.0% 26.8% 19.4% 0.00% 97.57% 2.42% 0.01%
Perth—Wellington 20.1% 44.1% 30.6% 5.1% 0.11% 92.94% 6.95% 0.00%
Peterborough—Kawartha 24.9% 37.6% 32.9% 4.6% 3.32% 67.44% 29.24% 0.00%
Pickering—Uxbridge 27.4% 38.8% 29.2% 4.6% 7.16% 81.24% 11.60% 0.00%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 1.5% 65.9% 29.1% 3.4% 0.00% 99.99% 0.01% 0.00%
Richmond Hill 28.2% 42.2% 26.0% 3.6% 4.96% 92.25% 2.79% 0.00%
Sarnia—Lambton 1.0% 44.4% 49.9% 4.7% 0.00% 29.00% 71.00% 0.00%
Sault Ste. Marie 20.8% 40.5% 36.1% 2.6% 0.27% 68.17% 31.56% 0.00%
Scarborough—Agincourt 28.7% 41.5% 26.9% 2.9% 6.28% 89.93% 3.79% 0.00%
Scarborough Centre 29.4% 29.9% 37.3% 3.4% 14.36% 14.70% 70.94% 0.00%
Scarborough—Guildwood 29.6% 35.2% 32.2% 3.1% 16.65% 54.47% 28.88% 0.00%
Scarborough North 21.9% 37.1% 39.3% 1.8% 0.38% 39.41% 60.21% 0.00%
Scarborough—Rouge Park 27.8% 31.4% 38.3% 2.5% 8.29% 18.54% 73.17% 0.00%
Scarborough Southwest 29.4% 27.9% 38.3% 4.5% 13.73% 8.07% 78.20% 0.00%
Simcoe—Grey 12.9% 51.3% 27.9% 7.9% 0.00% 99.20% 0.80% 0.00%
Simcoe North 17.0% 42.8% 32.0% 8.2% 0.03% 88.25% 11.72% 0.00%
Spadina—Fort York 28.3% 24.2% 41.6% 5.9% 6.51% 1.33% 92.16% 0.00%
St. Catharines 22.5% 34.4% 38.9% 4.2% 0.82% 30.59% 68.59% 0.00%
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 2.3% 58.5% 36.2% 3.0% 0.00% 98.78% 1.22% 0.00%
Sudbury 21.3% 29.1% 45.9% 3.7% 0.19% 4.51% 95.30% 0.00%
Thornhill 25.9% 49.3% 22.3% 2.6% 0.28% 99.58% 0.14% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 31.1% 25.5% 39.6% 3.9% 17.37% 4.04% 78.59% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Superior North 34.2% 19.3% 42.2% 4.3% 22.04% 0.25% 77.71% 0.00%
Timiskaming—Cochrane 5.3% 27.3% 65.5% 2.0% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
Timmins 2.5% 40.9% 54.6% 2.1% 0.00% 9.58% 90.42% 0.00%
Toronto Centre 38.4% 19.6% 36.5% 5.5% 56.59% 0.18% 43.23% 0.00%
Toronto—Danforth 21.2% 15.2% 58.1% 5.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Toronto—St. Paul's 36.1% 31.6% 26.6% 5.7% 62.96% 28.09% 8.95% 0.00%
University—Rosedale 28.2% 25.2% 39.0% 7.6% 9.78% 3.62% 86.60% 0.00%
Vaughan—Woodbridge 36.1% 34.5% 26.8% 2.6% 52.76% 40.06% 7.18% 0.00%
Waterloo 16.3% 31.5% 47.2% 5.0% 0.00% 5.50% 94.50% 0.00%
Wellington—Halton Hills 15.9% 50.8% 25.8% 7.5% 0.00% 99.53% 0.47% 0.00%
Whitby 17.6% 44.8% 33.1% 4.4% 0.01% 91.10% 8.89% 0.00%
Willowdale 30.7% 38.8% 26.3% 4.2% 16.42% 78.41% 5.17% 0.00%
Windsor—Tecumseh 0.9% 18.9% 74.6% 5.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Windsor West 20.1% 19.2% 57.4% 3.3% 0.01% 0.01% 99.98% 0.00%
York Centre 24.3% 39.5% 32.7% 3.5% 1.55% 78.02% 20.43% 0.00%
York South—Weston 27.7% 17.4% 52.2% 2.7% 0.34% 0.00% 99.66% 0.00%
York—Simcoe 20.3% 39.6% 33.6% 6.5% 0.20% 75.06% 24.74% 0.00%

*Winning=winning the most seats, excluding ties


treet(tracker of 30)