Mainstreet Ontario June5

POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 5TH JUNE 2018, 8 AM EST
Final Ontario Election Poll

Voter Intentions
5th June 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between June 3rd three levels of government, President and CEO
and June 4th, 2018 among a sample of Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
3320 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Ontario. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Respondents were interviewed on landlines Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
a national telephone directory compiled Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
by Mainstreet Research from various election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
commercially available sources and random the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
digit dialing. The part of the survey that and the Alabama special election in 2017.
dialed from the directory was conducted as a Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
stratified dial of the following regions; Toronto Association for Public Opinion Research and
(also known as the 416 region), the Greater meets international and Canadian publication
Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), standards.
South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario,
Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the CONTACT INFORMATION
case of random digit dials, respondents were In Ottawa:
asked the additional question of what region Quito Maggi, President
of the province they resided in. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet In Toronto:

Research and was not sponsored by a third Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
party. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 1.7% Find us online at:
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
(full methodology appears at the end of this facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
report)
PCs ON COURSE TO FORM GOVERNMENT - IF FORD CAN SURVIVE LATEST SCANDAL
5 June 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario is on course to win a
majority government, a new Mainstreet Research poll has found.
The poll represents the last two days of Mainstreet’s Ontario Daily Tracker and was fielded on June 3rd
and June 4th – just as news that Renata Ford, deceased former mayor Rob Ford’s widow, was suing PC
leader Doug Ford for breach of trust relating to the management of the Ford family business.
The poll surveyed 3320 Ontarians and has a margin of error of +/- 1.7% and is accurate 19 times out of
20.
Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs currently enjoy 39% support, while the NDP led by Andrea
Horwath are at 34.3%. The Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne currently enjoy 20.2% while the Greens
with Mike Schreiner at the helm are at 4.9%.
“Because of the efficiency of the PC vote, the NDP need to gain eight points or so and get a three point
lead over the PCs to win the election,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “If
this lawsuit is going to hurt Doug Ford, it has to do a lot of damage and now.”
“I suspect that time might be running out and this might be a bridge too far for the NDP to cross,” said
Maggi. “We have been doing daily tracking in this campaign and we have yet to see an eight point
swing over two days in this campaign.”
“I would be genuinely surprised if Horwath can make up this much ground in this such short a time. I
expect Ontario to elect a PC majority government on Thursday.”
The PCs have leads in four out of the six regions in Ontario, most notably in the 905 region which has
been won by every winning party in the last six elections. The NDP have a narrow lead over the PCs in
the North as well as Toronto proper.
“While this is our final public release, we will continue tracking Ontarians’ voting intentions right up
until the day of the election and see whether things will change with two days left.”
Mainstreet Research is doing daily tracking of the Ontario election and is available to subscribers for
the entire writ period. More information can be found at https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ontario-
daily-tracker/
-30-
For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters
party would you vote for?
10.5%
17.9%
1.3%
4.2%
All Voters
30.6%
35.4%
Decided and Leaning Voters
1.7%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens
4.9%
20.2%
Another Party Undecided
34.3%
Decided and Leaning Voters
39%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)
26.7%
30.9%
Toronto
37.1%
4.1%
1.3%
18.9%
44.5%
GTA
30.8%
4.4%
1.3%
25.7%
37.2%
East
28.5%
5.9%
2.7%
16%
South Central
35.6%
43.1%
4.3%
1.1%
11.8%
Southwestern
45.1%
35.5%
5.9%
1.7%
23.7%
32.6%
North
35.2%
5.8%
2.7%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Liberals PCs NDP Green Another Party

Which party, if any, would be your second
choice?
Liberals PCs
6.2%
12.9%
26.3%
29.7%
0.7% Liberals
NDPLiberals 54.5%
PCs
8.2%
8.5%
NDP Greens
51.9% 6.6%
19.6%
25.2% 3%
34.8%
16.3%
PCs NDP Greens Another Party No Second Choice Liberals NDP Greens Another Party No Second Choice
22.3% 1.3%
25.8%
1.2%
37.3%
NDP Liberals
12.3%
1.9%
NDP7.8% Greens
21.6%
11.4%
57.3%
20.4%
22.7%
18.2% 34.2%
Liberals PCs
PCs NDP
Greens Greens AnotherNo
Another Party Party No Second Choice
SecondNDP
Choice
Liberals PCs Greens Another Party No Second Choice Liberals PCs Another Party No Second Choice
How likely are you to change your vote from
your first choice to your second choice?
berals PCs
7.5% 7.7% 6.8%

13.4%
10.6%
17.3%
Greens
Liberals PCs 17.7%
43.4%
57.2%
15.6% 15.5%
DP 18.4% Greens
5.7% 5.3% 10.2%

13.8%
Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely
14.1%
Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure
Greens
24%
25.4%
28%
NDP Greens
29.4%
50.1%
24.8%
15.6%
22.5%
Very Likely Very

Somewhat Likely Likely
Somewhat Somewhat
Unlikely Likely Somewhat
Very Likely Unlikely
Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure Very Unlikely Not Sure
Breakouts
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- South
All Male Female 65+ Toronto GTA East Southwestern North
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 17.9% 15.5% 20.2% 13.6% 15.1% 20.1% 24.7% 24% 17.3% 23.1% 13.6% 9.8% 20.1%
Progressive Conservatives led by
35.4% 41.6% 29.4% 31.5% 36.9% 38% 35.3% 28.4% 40.2% 34.6% 31% 41.1% 29.1%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 30.6% 29% 32.2% 38.1% 30.8% 26.4% 25.5% 34.3% 27.5% 25.5% 36.3% 31.9% 29.5%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% 4% 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 5% 3.9% 5.3% 4.9%
Another Party 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.8% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 2.6% 0.8% 1.4% 2.2%
Undecided 10.5% 8.2% 12.7% 10.6% 11.2% 10.5% 9.4% 8.4% 10.8% 9.2% 14.5% 10.5% 14.2%
Unweighted Frequency 3320 1731 1589 619 820 1003 878 698 884 398 326 723 291
Weighted Frequency 3320 1632 1688 932 836 912 640 772 913 444 296 693 203
(leaning and undecided voters)

18- 35- 50- South
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 19% 16.1% 21.9% 14.7% 15.9% 22% 25.3% 25.2% 17.8% 24.5% 14.7% 11.2% 22.4%
36.8% 42.8% 31% 33% 38.5% 39.5% 36.4% 29.1% 41.9% 35.5% 32.9% 42.9% 30.8%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 32.3% 30.4% 34.2% 39.8% 32.7% 28.2% 26.7% 35% 29% 27.1% 39.7% 33.6% 33.4%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 4.6% 4.4% 4.9% 5% 4.7% 4.3% 4.4% 3.9% 4.2% 5.6% 3.9% 5.6% 5.5%
Another Party 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 2.6% 1% 1.7% 2.6%
Undecided 5.6% 4.7% 6.6% 5.7% 6.2% 4.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.9% 4.7% 7.7% 5.1% 5.3%
(decided and leaning voters)

18- 35- 50- South
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 20.2% 16.9% 23.4% 15.6% 17% 23.1% 26.9% 26.7% 18.9% 25.7% 16% 11.8% 23.7%
39% 44.9% 33.2% 34.9% 41% 41.5% 38.5% 30.9% 44.5% 37.2% 35.6% 45.1% 32.6%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 34.3% 31.9% 36.6% 42.3% 34.9% 29.7% 28.4% 37.1% 30.8% 28.5% 43.1% 35.5% 35.2%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 4.9% 4.6% 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.7% 4.1% 4.4% 5.9% 4.3% 5.9% 5.8%
Another Party 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% 2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 2.7% 1.1% 1.7% 2.7%
Which party, if any, would be your second choice?

18- 35- 50- South
34 49 64 Central
Liberals led by Kathleen
25.6% 24.5% 26.7% 28.9% 24.5% 24.9% 23.2% 31.3% 25.7% 23.2% 29.2% 19.6% 24.4%
Wynne
PCs led by Doug Ford 14.3% 15.8% 12.9% 14.6% 13.8% 14.3% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 12.2% 11% 15.8% 15%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 19.9% 18.4% 21.4% 17.8% 20.1% 20.9% 21.4% 19% 20.3% 24.1% 16.9% 17.2% 26.7%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 12.4% 10.8% 13.8% 14.3% 14.3% 10.4% 9.9% 10% 12.1% 13.5% 9.2% 16.5% 10.5%
Another Party 2.8% 3.4% 2.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.6% 2% 1.5% 2.9% 5.7% 1.7% 3.1% 1.4%
No Second Choice 25% 27.1% 23% 21.1% 24.4% 26.9% 28.8% 23.4% 24.4% 21.4% 31.9% 27.8% 22.0%
Which party, if any, would be your second choice? (continued)
All Liberals PCs NDP Greens
Liberals led by Kathleen Wynne 25.6% - 10.9% 49.7% 16.6%
PCs led by Doug Ford 14.3% 13.5% - 13.3% 12.2%
NDP led by Andrea Horwath 19.9% 44.1% 17.6% - 40.6%
Greens led by Mike Schreiner 12.4% 9.3% 10.1% 18.3% -
Another Party 2.8% 1.2% 3.5% 1.2% 8.2%
No Second Choice 25% 32% 57.9% 17.5% 22.4%
Unweighted Frequency 3136 645 1255 1033 152
Weighted Frequency 3136 633 1222 1076 154
How likely are you to change your vote from your first choice to your second choice?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Toronto GTA East South Central Southwestern North
Very Likely 7.9% 9% 7% 7.7% 7.2% 9.3% 7.4% 9.8% 10% 8.1% 4.8% 4% 9.4%
Somewhat Likely 14.4% 13.1% 15.7% 14.1% 17% 13.8% 12.3% 13.3% 14.8% 14.1% 15.4% 15% 14.5%
Somewhat Unlikely 21% 20.3% 21.7% 23.7% 22.1% 18.5% 19.3% 20.3% 20.1% 22.1% 22.6% 22.1% 19.6%
Very Unlikely 49.4% 50.9% 47.9% 46.4% 48.3% 51.9% 51.5% 49% 47.8% 49.2% 49.7% 52.4% 47.5%
Not Sure 7.2% 6.7% 7.8% 8% 5.4% 6.6% 9.4% 7.6% 7.3% 6.5% 7.6% 6.6% 9%
All Liberals PCs NDP Greens

Very Likely 7.9% 13.4% 6.8% 5.3% 10.2%
Somewhat Likely 14.4% 17.3% 10.6% 14.1% 24%
Somewhat Unlikely 21% 18.4% 17.7% 24.8% 22.5%
Very Unlikely 49.4% 43.4% 57.2% 50.1% 29.4%
Not Sure 7.2% 7.5% 7.7% 5.7% 13.8%
Unweighted Frequency 2319 545 709 901 126
Weighted Frequency 2319 529 695 931 126
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(first four responses randomized)
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another Party
Undecided
Which party are you leaning towards?

(only asked to respondents who said they were undecided in the previous question)
Another Party
Undecided
Which party, if any, would be your second choice?

(only asked to respondents who indicated a party preference in the first question)
Another Party
No Second Choice
How likely are you to change your vote from your first choice to your second choice?
(only asked to respondents who indicated a second choice in the previous question)
Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely
Not Sure
What is your gender?

Male
Female
What is your age group?

Under 18 years of age
18 to 34 years of age
65 years of age or older
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our
breakouts.
Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville
Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and
Greater Toronto Area Rideau Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between June 3rd,
2018 and June 4th, 2018 among a sample of 3320 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Ontario. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Ontario.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following
regions: Toronto (also known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as
the 905 region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern
Ontario. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at
random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.7% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 2.35%, Females: +/-
2.46%, 18-34 age group: +/- 3.94%, 35-49 age group: +/- 3.42%, 50-64 age group: +/- 3.09%,
65+ age group: +/- 3.31%, Toronto: +/- 3.71%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 3.3%, South Central
Ontario: +/- 5.43%, Southwestern Ontario: +/- 3.64%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 4.91%, Northern
Ontario: +/- 5.74%
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls.

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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 5TH JUNE 2018, 8 AM EST

Final Ontario Election Poll

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet In Toronto:

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Decided and Leaning Voters

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Greens

Liberals PCs NDP Green Another Party

7.5% 7.7% 6.8%

5.7% 5.3% 10.2%

Very Likely Very

(leaning and undecided voters)

(decided and leaning voters)

Which party, if any, would be your second choice?

All Liberals PCs NDP Greens

Which party are you leaning towards?

Which party, if any, would be your second choice?

What is your gender?

What is your age group?

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