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RESEARCH

WEEKLY

COMMODITY REPORT
Base Metals Uptrend Resumes On Weak Dollar!

27th Sep 2010 to 02nd Oct 2010

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

ECONOMIC DATA

Date
Tue Sep 28

Time

Currency

Economic Data

Forecast

Previous

6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence Richmond Manufacturing Index Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks Unemployment Claims Final GDP q/q Final GDP Price Index q/q Chicago PMI Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Natural Gas Storage

3.1% 52.5 6

4.2% 53.5 11 1.0M

Wed Sep 29

8:00pm 10:45pm

Thu Sep 30

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:15pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

457K 1.6% 1.9% 56.0

465K 1.6% 1.9% 56.7

73B

Fri Oct 1

12:00am 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:25pm 7:25pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm All Day

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Personal Income m/m Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Revised UoM Inflation Expectations ISM Manufacturing PMI Construction Spending m/m ISM Manufacturing Prices Total Vehicle Sales 54.6 -0.4% 59.3 11.6M 0.3% 67.1 0.2% 66.6 2.2% 56.3 -1.0% 61.5 11.5M 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

Fundamental Market Overview
U.S. Gold futures ended higher on Friday, hitting a record above $1,300 an ounce on worries over economic uncertainty after the Federal Reserve raised expectations of new measures to stimulate growth. COMEX December Gold futures settled up $1.80 at $1,298.10 an ounce on the COMEX division of the NYMEX. Trading ranged from $1,290.60 to $1,301.60, a record high. Gold benefited from renewed worries about inflation after. Gold's attraction as a hedge against inflation increased after data showed new orders for a wide range of long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose in August and business spending plans rebounded strongly. Gold has risen more than 4 percent this month and hit record highs in six of the last seven sessions. COMEX estimated final gold volume at 105,351 lots, in line with its 30-day average. Spot Gold fetched $1,295.60 an ounce, up from the previous session's last trade at $1,293.50 an ounce.

“U.S. GOLD HITS RECORD ABOVE $1,300 AN OUNCE”

U.S. Crude oil prices rose on Friday, posting their biggest weekly gain in two months as the dollar slid and investors remained expectant that the Federal Reserve could pump billions of dollars into the U.S. financial “CRUDE ENDS UP AS DOLLAR DROPS, system to support a faltering economic recovery. Also boosting oil was a surprise rise in Germany's Ifo index of business sentiment and rallying U.S. equities markets as investors latched on to a rebound in business EQUITIES RISE” spending and steady August home sales. A move by the Fed to pump more dollars into the economy could depress the greenback's value and a weak dollar can lift dollar-denominated oil prices as it raises the purchasing power of consumers with other currencies and lessens the value of greenbacks paid to producers. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November Crude rose $1.31, or 1.74 percent, to settle at $76.49 a barrel, trading from $74.66 to $76.68, highest intraday price since $77.99 was struck on Sept. 14. For the week, U.S. Crude futures rose $2.83, or 3.84 percent, the biggest percentage rise since jumped $2.97, or 3.91 percent in the week to July 23. More European oil companies are trimming their purchases of Iranian oil, citing the increasing difficulty of financial transactions with the Islamic republic.

U.S. Copper futures charged to a new five-month top above $3.60 per lb on Friday, with the bullish prospect of a cheap dollar and improved demand outlook through the end of the year powering the recent price momentum. Copper for December delivery finished up 2.75 cents at $3.6180 per lb on the COMEX metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Ranged from $3.5655 to $3.6360, a new high for the fourth position futures contract dating back to mid April. COMEX estimated final Copper futures volume at 24,441 lots, in line with Thursday's count of 24,791 lots. Open interest grew by 23 lots to 145,665 contracts as of Sept. 23. Copper rally driven by weak dollar outlook and improved demand prospects after U.S. Federal Reserve this week indicated it may consider further quantitative easing. Dollar fell against basket of currencies to its lowest level since February as stronger-than-expected data in Europe and a drop in U.S. durable goods orders hurt demand for the greenback. Flat new U.S. home sales for August reinforced view that the Fed may provide additional monetary easing to help the economy. Copper buoyed by growing supply tightness reflected in dwindling exchange-monitored warehouse stock levels. London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper warehouse stocks went up by 100 tonnes to 380,225 tonnes, but have dropped by around one third since February, when stocks stood at 555,075 tonnes, the highest level since October 2003. COMEX Copper warehouse stocks fell by 317 short tons to 87,245 short tons as of Thursday. LME Copper ended up $60 at $7,945 a tonne, after hitting a new five-month peak at $7,990 a tonne.

“US COPPER ENDS AT 5-MTH TOP ON DOLLAR, DEMAND VIEW ”

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

Technical Analysis

GOLD
Weekly Pivots
SCRIPT GOLD R4 1380 R3 1350 R2 1320 R1 1309 P 1290 S1 1279 S2 1260 S3 1231 S4 1201

Weekly Chart

Market Overview
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold sustained above level of 1270$ and made a high of 1301$ an ounce. In the coming week 1260$ will act as a good support in COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustain above 1260$ an ounce then above 1305$ an ounce it can touch the level of 1320$ an ounce and below 1260$ if COMEX Gold sustains then it can slightly correct and test the level of 1240$ an ounce.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1260$ an ounce, above 1305$ it can further go upward and can test the level of 1320$ an ounce. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be 1260$ and 1210$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be 1310$ and 1335$ Major support in MCX Gold is 18500 and 17900 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 19300 and 19550

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

SILVER
Weekly Pivots
SCRIPT SILVER R4 2405 R3 2308 R2 2210 R1 2175 P 2113 S1 2077 S2 2015 S3 1918 S4 1820

Weekly Chart

Market Overview
COMEX Silver is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Silver made a new lifetime high and made a close near to its high of 2149$ an ounce. For the upcoming week 2100$ and 1940$ are the crucial supports and 2180 $ is a crucial resistance in COMEX Silver.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 2100$ an ounce, and above 2150$ an ounce it can further go upward. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

CRUDE OIL
Weekly Pivots
SCRIPT CRUDE R4 85.57 R3 82.21 R2 78.85 R1 77.67 P 75.49 S1 74.31 S2 72.13 S3 68.77 S4 65.41

Weekly Chart

Market Overview
NYMEX Crude is consolidating on charts. Last week Crude Oil sustained on its week high and made a close near to its high. For the coming week 70$ will act as major support and 80$ a barrel will be a major resistance.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if NYMEX Crude does not break the level of 78$ a barrel then below the level of 70$ a barrel then it might test the level of 67$ a barrel. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

COPPER
Weekly Pivots
SCRIPT COPPER R4 406.60 R3 390.25 R2 373.90 R1 367.85 P 357.55 S1 351.50 S2 341.20 S3 324.85 S4 308.50

Weekly Chart

Market Overview
Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on lower levels. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 355 then above the level of 368 Copper can test the level of 380. In MCX Copper above 372 Copper can test the level of 383 if it does not break the level of 347 on the downside.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 368 and 391 will act as major resistance and 334 and 316 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 372 and 388 and supports would be found at 347 and 328.

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

NATURAL GAS
Weekly Pivots
SCRIPT NG R4 4.921 R3 4.594 R2 4.267 R1 4.074 P 3.940 S1 3.747 S2 3.613 S3 3.286 S4 2.959

Weekly Chart

Market Overview
Natural Gas is in downward phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If next week Natural Gas sustains below the level of 3.690$ then below the level of 3.650$ Natural Gas can test the level of 3.500 and above 4.150$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the level of 4.375$ and 4.540$. In MCX Natural Gas below 170 Natural Gas can test the level of 160 if it does not break the level of 206 on the upside.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.500$ will act as major supports and 4.375$ and 5.022$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 206 and 233 and supports would be found at 170 and 150.

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 19603.33 34314.33 383.95 3749.67 204.27 114.38 110.22 1169.30 114.17 R2 19366.33 33379.33 371.65 3607.67 191.57 107.83 105.17 1107.10 108.07 R1 19250.67 33063.67 367.35 3543.33 183.13 105.52 103.18 1076.00 105.93 PP 19129.33 32444.33 359.35 3465.67 178.87 101.28 100.12 1044.90 101.97 S1 19013.67 32128.67 355.05 3401.33 170.43 98.97 98.13 1013.80 99.83 S2 18892.33 31509.33 347.05 3323.67 166.17 94.73 95.07 982.70 95.87 S3 18655.33 30574.33 334.75 3181.67 153.47 88.18 90.02 920.50 89.77

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

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Weekly Report Commodity 27th Sep Weekly Oct 2010 to 02nd Commodity Report
RESEARCH RESEARCH

1st March to 6th Mar 2010

Disclaimer

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken. Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved.

remialcsiD
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