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14.462 Advanced Maroeconomics
Spring 2004

Problem Set 5
(due April 12)

Problem 1
There is a measure-one continuum of agents, indexed by i ∈ [0, 1]. Each agent can choose
between two actions. The action of agent i is denoted as ki ∈ {0, 1}, where ki = 0 represents
“not invest” and ki = 1 represents “invest”. All agents move simultaneously. The utility
of agent i is given by
ui = U (ki , K, θ) = eθ ki (1 + K γ ) − cki

where θ reflects “fundamentals” and K = ki di denotes the mass of agents investing.

1. Suppose that θ is commonly known by all agents. What is the best response g(K, θ)
(agents are assumed not invest in case of indifference)? Derive the thresholds θ and
θ̄ such that: (i) all agents not investing is the unique equilibrium for θ < θ; (ii) all
agents investing is the unique equilibrium for θ ≥ θ¯ and (iii) for intermediate values
¯ there are multiple equilibria.
θ ∈ [θ, θ)

From now on assume that agent i observes a private signal

xi = θ + ξi

with ξi ∼ N (0, σx2 ). All agents also observes an exogenous public signal

z =θ+ε

where ε ∼ N (0, σz2 ). Let αx = σx−2 and αz = σz−2 . Agents have a common prior about θ,
which is uniform over the entire real line. Equilibrium is defined as follows: a strategy k(·)
and an aggregate investment K(·) constitute an equilibrium if

k(x, z) ∈ arg max E[U (k, K(θ, z), θ|x, z],


k

√ √
K(θ, z) = k(x, z) αx φ( αx [x − θ])dx.

The remainder of the exercise asks you to numerically compute monotone equilibria, that
is, equilibria in which k(x, z) is monotone in x. In a monotone equilibrium, for any real­
ization of z, there is a threshold x∗ (z) such that an agent invests if and only if x ≥ x∗ (z).
Throughout, set γ = 0.8 and c = 2.

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¯ plot
2. Set αx = 10 and αz = 1. Over a range of values for z (somewhat wider than [θ, θ])
the equilibrium thresholds x∗ (z). Are there values of z for which there are multiple
equilibrium thresholds?

3. Repeat part 2. for the values αx = 1 and αz = 10. Compute the range [z, z̄) of values
of z for which there is multiplicity.

4. Fix αx at one. What happens to the range [z, z̄) as αz becomes large?

Problem 2
Consider the following two stage version of Morris-Shin. The utility of agent i is given by

ui = a1,i (Rb − c) + βa2,i (Rb − c)

Here a1,i ∈ {0, 1} is the action of agent i in the first stage and a2,i ∈ {0, 1} is the action of
agent i in the second stage. For both actions, a value of one represents “attack” while a
value of zero represents “not attack”. The regime outcome is denoted as R, where R = 0
represents survival of the status quo and R = 1 represents collapse. The decision to attack

is irreversible: a1,i = 1 implies a2,i = 1. Let A1 = a1,i di be mass of agents attacking in

the first stage. Let A2 = a2,i (1 − a1,i )di be the mass of agents that did not attack in the
first stage but join the attack in the second stage. The timing is as follows. First agent
i observes a private signal xi = θ + ξi where ξi ∼ N (0, σx2 ) and αx = σx−2 . Then agents
simultaneously choose their first stage actions a1,i . Then agents observe the public signal
z = Φ−1 (A1 ) + v where v ∼ N (0, σz2 ) and αz = σz−2 . The status quo collapses (R = 1) if
A1 + A2 ≥ θ. The goal is to characterize the monotone equilibria of this model.

1. First note that agent i will attack in the first period if xi ≤ x∗1 for some threshold x∗1 .
What is the mass of agents choosing to attack in the first period as a function of θ,
denoted as A1 (θ)? Plug the function A1 (θ) into the expression for the public signal
z. What are the properties of z as a signal about θ?

2. Given a first period threshold x∗1 , characterize the second stage equilibrium thresholds
x∗2 (z). Under what condition on αz and αx is their multiplicity?

3. Now move back to the first stage and analyze the monotone equilibria of the model.
Discuss multiplicity and how it is related to the precision parameters αz and αx and
the discount rate β.

14.462 Advanced Macroeconomics


Spring 2004

Problem Set 5 Solution

Problem 1

1. The best response function is



1 θ ≥ log(c) − log(1 + K γ )
g(K, θ) =
0 θ < log(c) − log(1 + K γ )
� �
We have θ = log 2c and θ¯ = log(c). If θ < θ, then it is best not to invest even if
¯ then it is optimal to invest even if nobody else does.
everybody else does. If θ ≥ θ,

In a monotone equilibrium for each value of z there is a threshold x∗ (z) such that an
agent invests if and only if x ≥ x∗ (z). For a given value of θ and z, the fraction of
agents investing is then given by

K(θ, z) = Φ ( αx (θ − x∗ (z))) .

Let
� √ γ �
H(x∗ , x, z) = E eθ (1 + Φ ( αx (θ − x∗ )) ) − c|x, z
be the expected utility from investing conditional on having observed signals x and z
if the threshold of other agents for investing is x∗ . To be an equilibrium, x∗ (z) must
satisfy H(x∗ (z), x∗ (z), z) = 0. Since

θ|x, z ∼ N (δx + (1 − δ)z, α−1 )


αx
where δ = αx +αz
and α = αx + αz we can write this condition as
� ∞

θ √ ∗ γ α − 1 α(θ−δx∗ (z)−(1−δ)z)2
e (1 + Φ ( αx (θ − x (z))) ) e 2 dθ = c
−∞ 2π

This condition can be used to solve numerically for equilibrium values of x∗ (z). With
αx = 10 and αz = 1 the equilibrium is unique. The function x∗ (z) is plotted in Figure
1.

In the case αx = 1 and αz = 10 we have multiplicity for a range of values (z , z̄). The
solid line in Figure 2 plots the correspondence x∗ (z) for this case.

1
Figure 1: x∗ (z) for αx = 10 and αz = 1
0.2

0.18

0.16

0.14
x*(z)

0.12

0.1

0.08

0.06
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
_
z
2. θ
_ θ

Figure 2: x∗ (z) for αx = 1 and αz = 10 (and αz = 100)


80

60

40

20
x*(z)

−20

−40

−60

−80
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
_
z
3. θ
_ θ

4. The dotted line in Figure 2 is for the case αx = 1 and αz = 100. One can see that
¯ as αz increases.
the multiplicity region (z, z̄) approaches (θ, θ)

Problem 2

1. In the first stage agents will attack if x ≤ x∗1 . Thus



A1 (θ) = Φ[ αx (x∗1 − θ)].

Thus the public signal takes the form



z = Φ−1 (A1 (θ)) + v = αx (x∗1 − θ) + v.

It is convenient to consider the linear transformation


1 v
z̃ = − √ z + x∗1 = θ − √ = θ + ṽ
αx αx
� �
where v˜ = − √vαx 1
is distributed N 0, αzαx . Thus the signal z˜ has precision αz̃ =
αz αx .

2. Now we’re looking for monotone equilibria of the second stage. This problem is almost
the problem considered in class with one complication: agents that have decided to
attack in the first stage cannot reverse their decision. There are now two situations
that can occur in the second stage. Either some agents joint the attack, in which case
all agents with private signal below some threshold x∗I (z̃) participate in the attack and
the agent with signal x∗I (z̃) is indifferent. Or nobody joins the attack, so everybody
below x∗1 participates in the attack but an agent with signal x∗1 is not indifferent but
would rather not attack but cannot reverse his decision. In either case there is a
threshold x∗p (˜

z) below which agents participate in the attack. Then the overall size
of the attack is given by


A(θ, z̃) = Φ( αx (x∗p (z) − θ)).

Regime change occurs if and only if



θ ≤ Φ( αx (x∗p (z) − θ))

⇐⇒ Φ−1 (θ) ≤ αx (x∗p (z) − θ)
1
⇐⇒ θ + √ Φ−1 (θ) ≤ x∗p (z)
αx
⇐⇒ X(θ) ≤ x∗p (z)

3
where
1
X(θ) ≡ θ + √ Φ−1 (θ).
αx
The function X is strictly increasing. Let θp∗ (˜
z) be the level of fundamentals at which
the inequality above holds with equality, that is X(θp∗ (˜ z)) = x∗p (˜
z). Then regime
∗ −1
change occurs if and only if θ ≤ θp (˜ z). Let’s write Θ = X , then we can write
∗ ∗
θp (˜ z)). That is, for a given participation threshold x∗p (˜
z) = Θ(xp (˜ z), the function Θ
will give us the threshold of fundamentals below which regime change occurs.
Now let H(x∗p (˜
z), x, z̃) be the expected utility from attacking of an agent conditional
on having observed a private signal x and a public signal z̃ if all other agents below
the participation threshold x∗p (˜z) participate in the attack. So

H(x∗p (˜
z), x, z̃) ≡ bP [θ ≤ Θ(x∗p (˜
z))|x, z̃] − c.

In the standard Morris-Shin model the set of equilibria is given by the solutions to
the equation
H(x, x, z̃) = 0
Here things are a bit more involved due to irreversibility. First suppose there is a
unique solution to this equation. Here the condition that insures uniqueness for all
√ √ √
values of z˜ is √ααz˜x ≤ 2π, which can be written as αz αx ≤ 2π. Notice that a more
precise private signal now also helps to generate multiplicity, because this means that
the public signal is more precise. If this condition fails there is a range of values [z, z̄]
for z̃ over which there is multiplicity. For now we have assumed that we’re outside of
this multiplicity range. Denote the unique solution as x∗U (˜ z) . If x∗U (˜
z ) ≥ x∗1 we have

found an equilibrium. It will be useful to describe the equilibrium by two thresholds,


which turn out to be the the same in this case. First there is the threshold below
which agents participate in the attack, denoted as x∗p (˜ z) which is equal to x∗U (˜ z) in
this case. Second there is the threshold at which an agent is indifferent, denoted as
x∗I (˜
z) and also equal to x∗U (˜
z) in this case. The two thresholds are no longer the same

if xU (˜ z ) = x∗1 : nobody joins the attack

z ) < x1 . Now the participation threshold is x∗p (˜


but those with signal below x∗1 are stuck with their earlier decision. Notice that due to

uniqueness and the fact that x∗U (˜ z ) < x∗1 we must have H(x∗1 , x∗1 , z̃) < 0, so an agent

with private signal x∗1 would like to reverse his decision but cannot due so. Thus the

indifference threshold which is determined by the condition H(x∗1 , x∗I (z̃), z̃) = 0 must
satisfy x∗I (˜z ) < x∗1 .1 Why is it important to determine the indifference threshold?
After all, in equilibrium everybody below x∗1 has already decided to attack. The
answer is that when deciding on whether to attack in the first stage, agents must
1
One can easily solve for this number explicitly, the condition is

bP [θ ≤ Θ(x∗1 )|x∗I (˜
z), z̃] − c = 0.

contemplate in what situations they would like to attack in the second stage given

that everybody else below x∗1 attacks in the first stage.


Now suppose we are in the case of multiplicity. We will focus on the typical case with
three solutions to the equation H(x, x, z̃) = 0, the extension to the borderline cases

with two equilibria is straightforward. Denote the three solutions as x∗L (z̃) < x∗M (z̃) <
x
∗H (z̃). We have several cases to consider:

(a) x∗1 ≤ x∗L (z̃): all three values x∗L (z̃), x∗M (z̃) and x∗H (z̃) are equilibria (with identical
participation and indifference threshold). Of course as usual the intermediate
equilibrium is unstable and thus of little interest.
(b) x
∗L (z̃) < x∗1 < x
∗M (z̃): now the value x∗L (z̃) no longer constitutes an equilibrium.
Since x∗1 is larger than x∗L (z̃) but still below x∗M (z̃) we have H(x∗1 , x∗1 , z̃) < 0,

so we get an equilibrium with participation threshold


x
∗P (z̃) = x∗1 and indif­
ference threshold x∗I (z̃) < x∗1 solving H(x
∗1 , x
∗I (z̃), z̃) = 0. The other two values
x∗M (z̃) and x∗H (z̃) still give equilibria with identical participation and indifference
threshold.

(c) x∗M (z̃) < x∗1 < x∗H (z̃): now the intermediate value no longer gives an equilibrium.
Moreover, since x∗1 is now between the intermediate and the large value, we have
H(x∗1 , x
∗1 , z̃) > 0. This means that given a participation threshold x∗1 , agents with
signal x∗1 are happy to attack in the second stage. So there is no equilibrium
with participation threshold x∗1 and indifference threshold x
∗I (z̃) < x∗1 . We are
only left with the equilibrium x∗H (z̃) with identical participation and indifference
threshold.
(d) x
∗H (z̃) < x∗1 : now even the large value no longer gives an equilibrium. Once
again we have H(x∗1 , x
∗1 , z̃) < 0, so we have an equilibrium with participation
threshold x∗P (z̃) = x∗1 and indifference threshold x
∗I (z̃) < x∗1

3. Suppose from solving the second stage we have the equilibrium participation threshold

x
∗P (z̃, x∗1 ) and indifference threshold x∗I (z̃, x∗1 ). Here we have made the dependence of
the second stage equilibrium on x∗1 explicit. Of course in the case of multiplicity
we can choose among the different second stage equilibria, which will translate into
multiplicity in the overall game.
First let’s figure out the posterior distribution that an agent has over the public signal
z̃ after observing his private signal x. As θ = x − ξ we have z˜ = θ + v˜ = x − ξ + v˜ we
αx 1
As usual let α = αx + αz˜ = αx (1 + αz ) and δ = αx +αz˜ = 1+αz Then we get the condition
� �
� √ ∗
� ∗ 1 1 −1 � c� ∗
b 1 − Φ( α(δx + (1 − δ)˜
z − Θ(x1 )) = c ⇐⇒ xI (˜
z) = √ Φ 1− − (1 − δ)˜
z + Θ(x1 )
δ α b

have

E[z̃ |x] = x − E[ξ |x] + E[˜


v |x] = x
1 1 1 + αz
Var[˜
z |x] = Var[ξ |x] + Var[˜
v |x] = + = .
αx αx αz αx αz
� �
1 + αz
z̃ |x ∼ N x, ,
αx αz
so the density is �
αx αz 1 αx αz 2
f (˜|x)
z = e− 2 1+αz (˜z−x)
(1 + αz )2π
As usual we have

P [θ ≤ Θ(x∗P (˜
z, x∗1 ))|x, z̃] = 1 − Φ( α(δx + (1 − δ)˜
z − Θ(x∗P (˜
z, x∗1 ))))

Investing in the first stage yields expected utility



(1 + β)[bP [θ ≤ Θ(x∗P (˜
z, x∗1 ))|x, z̃] − c]f (˜
z |x)dz̃

while waiting gives expected utility



β[bP [θ ≤ Θ(x∗P (˜
z, x∗1 ))|x, z̃] − c]I[x ≤ x∗I (˜
z, x∗1 )]f (˜
z |x)d˜
z.

Notice that to compute the value of waiting we need to know the indifference threshold
x∗I (˜
z, x∗1 ): in the first agent can choose a value different from x∗1 . In order to compute
the utility of choosing a value below x∗1 we need to know when the agent would be
willing to invest in the second stage.
The equilibrium thresholds x∗1 must satisfy the condition

[(1 + β) − βI[x∗1 ≤ x∗I (˜
z, x∗1 )]] [bP [θ ≤ θp∗ (˜
z, x∗1 )|x∗1 , z̃] − c]f (˜
z |x∗1 )dz̃ = 0

We have determined all the pieces in this equation and can now compute equilibria
Never attempted to prove whether the solution for x∗1 is unique for a
numerically. I haven’t
given selection of second stage equilibria, but in my numerical examples it is.
First ,I compute some equilibria for the parameter values αx = 1, αz = 3 (so the
condition for multiplicity is satisfied), β = 0.8, b = 1 and c = 0.5. I Ccompute two
equilibria. In the first, I select the lowest second stage equilibrium for all values of z̃,
in the second, I always select the highest second stage equilibrium. Figures 3 and 4
show the functions x∗I (˜
z) and x∗P (˜
z) for the first equilibrium. Let’s first discuss figure
3. The two vertical dashed lines are z and z̄, the values of the public signal z̃ for

6
Figure 3: Low second stage equilibrium, function x∗I (˜
z)

2.5

1.5
xI*(z)

0.5

0
0.47 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.52 0.53
z

Figure 4: Low second stage equilibrium, function x∗P (˜


z)

2.5

1.5
xP*(z)

0.5

0
0.47 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.52 0.53
z

which we would have multiplicity in the standard Morris-Shin model. The horizontal

dashed line is the equilibrium first stage threshold x


∗1 . The solid discontinuous line

is x
∗I (z̃). The dotted continuation of the left part of x∗I (z̃) indicates the not selected
high second stage equilibrium. Notice that we do not have multiplicity over the entire

range [z, z̄]. Over that range we are in case (c): the lowest solution of H(x, x, z̃) = 0

is below x∗1 ; at the same time H(x


∗1 , x
∗1 , z̃) > 0, so with a participation threshold x
∗1
more agents would like to joint the attack; as a consequence, only the high equilibrium

survives. As we increase z̃, H(x∗1 , x


∗1 , z̃) falls and the discontinuity occurs at the point

when H(x∗1 , x∗1 , z̃) = 0. From now on we have a low equilibrium with participation
threshold x∗1 (this is shown in figure 4) and a indifference threshold x∗I (z̃) (which is
shown in figure 3).
Figures 5 and 6 shows the same graphs when the high second stage equilibrium
is selected. Selecting the high second stage equilibrium is associated with a slightly
higher (imperceptible in the figures) value of the first stage threshold x
∗1 .

Figures 7 and 8 show the effect on the functions x∗I (z̃) and x∗P (z̃) of a reduction in β to
0.5. Consider the more interesting case in which the low second stage equilibrium is
selected. A lower discount rate makes it more attractive to attack in the first stage,

so x
∗1 increases (the old value is given by the dashed horizontal line, the new one

by the dash-dotted line). Figure 7 shows the effect on the x∗I (z̃) schedule. The old
schedule is solid, the new one dotted. The increase in β has of course no effect on the
location of the high solution to H(x, x, z̃) = 0. But the point of discontinuity shifts
to the right and the indifference threshold shifts up: since now in the low second
stage equilibrium more people are stuck with having attacked (as shown in figure 8),
people would be more willing to join the attack in the second stage.

Figure 5: High second stage equilibrium, function x∗I (˜


z)

2.5

1.5
xI*(z)

0.5

0
0.47 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.52 0.53
z

Figure 6: High second stage equilibrium, function x∗P (˜


z)

2.5

1.5
xP*(z)

0.5

0
0.47 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.52 0.53
z

Figure 7: Reduction in β , function x∗I (˜


z)

2.5

1.5
xI*(z)

0.5

0
0.47 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.52 0.53
z

Figure 8: Reduction in β , function x∗P (˜


z)

2.5

1.5
xP*(z)

0.5

0
0.47 0.48 0.49 0.5 0.51 0.52 0.53
z

10