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The TOD Dividend v Opportunities and Findings Town of Chapel Hill City of Durham Durham
The TOD Dividend
v
Opportunities and Findings
Town of Chapel Hill
City of Durham
Durham County
Orange County
June 2018

Tonight’s Agenda

• Welcome

• Goals of FTA Grant & Why TOD

• Report on Key Findings

– Economic

– Community Benefits

– Affordable Housing

– Catalytic Infrastructure

• Station Opportunity Case Study

– Gateway + Patterson Place

• Next Steps

Housing – Catalytic Infrastructure • Station Opportunity Case Study – Gateway + Patterson Place • Next
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Light Rail Project Update

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Goals of FTA Grant

Coordinate neighborhood planning w/ D-O LRT Design

Assess and plan for economic development

Optimize community benefits

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Outcomes of FTA Grant

Prioritize complementary infrastructure

Recommend strategies to support equitable neighborhoods

Deliver TOD Guidebook coordinating outcomes

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Our Opportunity & Our Challenge

Our Opportunity & Our Challenge • 20 new people move to Durham / Chapel Hill metro

• 20 new people move to Durham / Chapel Hill metro area every day

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Connecting to Opportunity

This growth means there are new jobs here – can we get people who need them to those jobs?

Connecting to Opportunity This growth means there are new jobs here – can we get people
Connecting to Opportunity This growth means there are new jobs here – can we get people
Connecting to Opportunity This growth means there are new jobs here – can we get people
Connecting to Opportunity This growth means there are new jobs here – can we get people
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Personal Mobility Supports Social Mobility

“In a large, continuing study of upward mobility based at Harvard, commuting time has emerged as the single strongest factor in the odds of escaping poverty. The longer an average commute in a given county, the worse the chances of low-income families there moving up the ladder.” – “Transportation Emerges as Crucial to Escaping Poverty,” New York Times, May 7, 2015

moving up the ladder.” – “ Transportation Emerges as Crucial to Escaping Poverty,” New York Times,
moving up the ladder.” – “ Transportation Emerges as Crucial to Escaping Poverty,” New York Times,
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But Growth Strains Mobility

We are adding 1 minute of travel time per year between Durham and Chapel Hill.

All of our buses sit in this traffic.

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Cameron Blvd to Manning Drive using US 15 / US 501 at 5 pm 10
Cameron Blvd to
Manning Drive
using US 15 / US
501
at 5 pm
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Travel time

Speed

Manning Dr to Cameron Blvd using US 15/US 501

Average trip travel time and speed

25.0

12.5

0.0

40

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501 Average trip travel time and speed 25.0 12.5 0.0 40 20 20 18 17 16
501 Average trip travel time and speed 25.0 12.5 0.0 40 20 20 18 17 16
20 18 17 16
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travel time and speed 25.0 12.5 0.0 40 20 20 18 17 16 15 30 20
travel time and speed 25.0 12.5 0.0 40 20 20 18 17 16 15 30 20
travel time and speed 25.0 12.5 0.0 40 20 20 18 17 16 15 30 20
travel time and speed 25.0 12.5 0.0 40 20 20 18 17 16 15 30 20
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travel time and speed 25.0 12.5 0.0 40 20 20 18 17 16 15 30 20

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20

10

0

April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 April 2016 April 2017 11
April 2012
April 2013
April 2014
April 2015
April 2016
April 2017
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Transit That Sits in Traffic is a Recipe for Reduced Access to Jobs

The light rail and other major investments in Wake, Durham and Orange counties will create a network of transit services that will not be influenced by congestion in the way that buses in regular traffic are.

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#ConnectingToOpportunity

#ConnectingToOpportunity 14
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Light Rail: Focused on Job Centers

• Durham-Orange Light Rail Corridor ~ 106,000 jobs TODAY

• Jobs in corridor projected to be over 150,000 in 20 years

UNC Hospital Duke/VA Medical Center
UNC Hospital
Duke/VA Medical
Center
• Jobs in corridor projected to be over 150,000 in 20 years UNC Hospital Duke/VA Medical

Downtown Durham

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Jobs a worker can reach by transit in 45 minutes: 66,000 16 East Lakewood at
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
66,000
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East Lakewood at Memphis St.
2016 transit network
Jobs a worker can reach by transit in 45 minutes: 66,000 Jobs a worker can
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
66,000
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
81,000
23%
Increase
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East Lakewood at Memphis St.
Future transit network with LRT
Jobs a worker can reach by transit in 45 minutes: 66,000 Jobs a worker can
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
66,000
Jobs a worker can
reach by transit
in 45 minutes:
81,000
These numbers are
based on the jobs and
housing we have today.
If we plan well for station
area development, even
23%
more jobs will be
Increase
accessible in 45 minutes
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East Lakewood at Memphis St.
Future transit network with LRT

Video

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Attributes of Successful TOD

Attributes of Successful TOD 1. Sustainable Density (Accommodate Growth + Preserve Rural Land) 2. Mix of

1. Sustainable Density

(Accommodate Growth + Preserve Rural Land)

2. Mix of Uses

3. Compact pedestrian-oriented

4. Active defined center

5. Limited, managed parking

6. Public leadership

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Key Findings

Key Findings 21
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Economic Benefits

• Broader tax base to support community priorities

• Attracting and retaining jobs (competiveness)

• More people accessing more jobs = More Opportunity

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Economic Benefits

DOLRT Corridor Total

2018 – 2057

Station Areas (basis for all financial estimates below)

7,026 acres

Potential Redevelopment Areas Within Station Areas

1,361 acres

Net New Property Value

$3.3 billion

Net New Annual Tax Revenue

$44.6 million

$3.3 billion Net New Annual Tax Revenue $44.6 million Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue (through 2057)

Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue (through 2057)

$1.4 billion

Financial estimates are reported as discounted present value based on an inflationadjusted discount rate of 2.5%

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Economic Benefits

Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue by Jurisdiction

2018 – 2057

Chapel Hill / Carrboro Schools

$26M

Town of Chapel Hill

$100M

Orange County

$110M

City of Durham

$480M

Durham County

$680M

City of Durham $480M Durham County $680M Total $1.4 billion Financial estimates are reported as

Total

$1.4 billion

Financial estimates are reported as discounted present value based on an inflationadjusted discount rate of 2.5%

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More revenues for: o o o Dedicated Housing Fund Durham Belt Line Athletic facilities 25

More revenues for:

o

o

o

Dedicated Housing Fund

Durham Belt Line

Athletic facilities

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Affordable Housing #HousingForAll

Affordability = Housing + Transportation

Growing population + limited supply

+ Transportation • Growing population + limited supply • Gentrification/Displacement Concerns 2013: $168,000
+ Transportation • Growing population + limited supply • Gentrification/Displacement Concerns 2013: $168,000
+ Transportation • Growing population + limited supply • Gentrification/Displacement Concerns 2013: $168,000
+ Transportation • Growing population + limited supply • Gentrification/Displacement Concerns 2013: $168,000

Gentrification/Displacement Concerns

2013: $168,000

2018: $258,000

Durham median asking price, Redfin

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Realizing Opportunities #HousingForAll

Harness growth along D-O LRT

Equitable neighborhood change

Walkable urbanism

Partnerships

Encourage meaningful private involvement

New partners (e.g., Impact Investing)

urbanism • Partnerships – Encourage meaningful private involvement – New partners (e.g., Impact Investing) 27
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Strategies

#HousingForAll

Addressing Affordable & Attainable

Subsidized & Naturally Occurring

Calibrate for range of incomes

Naturally Occurring – Calibrate for range of incomes • Missing Middle – Housing type diversity –

Missing Middle

Housing type diversity

Incremental development (e.g., ADUs)

Preservation

e.g., converting market rate multifamily

diversity – Incremental development (e.g., ADUs) • Preservation – e.g., converting market rate multifamily 28
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Just Do It #HousingForAll

Clear and predictable approval process

Exactions alone will not suffice—Need Private & Public $$$

Expand experimentation with every tool possible

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Catalytic Infrastructure Needs

Pre-RailPre-Rail

Rail +10 Rail +10 years years
Rail +10
Rail +10
years
years
Rail +20 Rail +20 years years
Rail +20
Rail +20
years
years

Each station area has its own needs and catalytic opportunity

Timing matters: e.g., affordable housing can’t happen until utilities exist

Harnessing partnership potential is key (e.g., OWASA reimbursement for oversizing utilities)

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Gateway + Eastowne + Patterson Place Middle-of-the-Line

Gateway + Eastowne + Patterson Place Middle-of-the-Line 31
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Gateway + Patterson Place

• Maximize benefits

– Geography & Proximity

– Opportunity for active uses

• Economic Development

– Class “A” office / HQ

– Hospitality & Entertainment

– Retail & Residential

office / HQ – Hospitality & Entertainment – Retail & Residential • Mobility: Walk, Bike, Bus,

• Mobility: Walk, Bike, Bus, Drive, Rail

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Gateway + Eastowne + Patterson Place

DOLRT Corridor Total

2018 – 2057

Station Areas (basis for all financial estimates below)

1071 acres

Potential Redevelopment Areas Within Station Areas

297 acres

Net New Property Value

$484 million

Net New Annual Tax Revenue

$6.56 million

$484 million Net New Annual Tax Revenue $6.56 million Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue (through 2057)

Net New Accumulated Tax Revenue (through 2057)

$200 million

Financial estimates are reported as discounted present value based on an inflation adjusted discount rate of 2.5%

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Connectivity

Connectivity 34
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Gateway + Patterson Place

Pre-RailPre-Rail

Rail +10 Rail +10 years years
Rail +10
Rail +10
years
years
Rail +20 Rail +20 years years
Rail +20
Rail +20
years
years

Gateway

Patterson Place

15/501 Connections

> District Parking

Sewer Pump Station > I-40 Bike/Hike Bridge

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Public-Led District Parking

Shared, Managed, Unbundled & Priced

Mix of on-street, surface and structured

Coordination among Chapel Hill, Durham, and private sector

Near Term
Near Term
Long Term
Long Term
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Zoning

Town of Chapel Hill

• Presently a Future Focus Area

• Adopt Framework Plan as part of Future Land Use Map

• Formulate a TOD District Ordinance

• Incorporate into the LUMO (Town-wide Land Use Management Ordinance) rewrite

City/County of Durham

• Compact Neighborhood Tier Boundary has been adopted

• Design District requirements are being crafted, including the establishment of sub-districts, future street network maps, environmental regulations, heights and densities, an affordable housing bonus, and parking regulations

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Competitive Advantages

World – Class Universities

A Global Brand

Middle of the Line

Competitive Advantages • World – Class Universities • A Global Brand • Middle of the Line
Competitive Advantages • World – Class Universities • A Global Brand • Middle of the Line
v DISCUSSION
v
DISCUSSION