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Statistical Methods

Ramón V. León

Introductory Remarks

• Most methods studied so far have been based on

the assumption of normally distributed data

– Frequently this assumption is not valid

– Sample size may be too small to verify it

• Sometimes the data is measured in an ordinal scale

• Nonparametric or distribution-free statistical

methods

– Make very few assumptions about the form of the

population distribution from which the data are sampled

– Based on ranks so they can be used on ordinal data

• Will concentrate on hypothesis tests but will also

mention confidence interval procedures.

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 2

Inference for a Single Sample

Consider a random sample x1 , x2 ,..., xn from a population

with unknown median µ .

(Recall that for nonnormal (especially skewed)

distributions the median is a better measure of the center

than the mean.)

H 0 : µ = µ0 vs. H1 : µ > µ0

Example: Test whether the median household income of a

population exceeds $50,000 based on a random sample of

household incomes from that population

For simplicity we sometimes present methods for one-sided tests.

Modifications for two-sided tests are straightforward and are given in the

textbook Some examples in these notes are two-sided tests.

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 3

Sign Test for a Single Sample

H 0 : µ = µ0 vs. H1 : µ > µ0

Sign test:

1. Count the number of xi 's that exceed µ0 . Denote this

number by s+ , called the number of plus signs. Let

s− = n − s+ , which is the number of minus signs.

2. Reject H 0 if s+ is large or equivalently if s− is small.

Test idea:

Under the null hypothesis s+ has a binomial distribution,

Bin (n, ½). So this test is simply the test for binomial proportions

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 4

Sign Test Example

A thermostat used in an electric device is to be checked for the

accuracy of its design setting of 200ºF. Ten thermostats were

tested to determine their actual settings, resulting in the

following data:

202.2, 203.4, 200.5, 202.5, 206.3, 198.0, 203.7, 200.8, 201.3, 199.0

H 0 : µ = 200 vs H1 : µ ≠ 200

s+ = 8 = number of data values > 200, so

10 10

1

1010 2

1

10

P-value = 2∑ = 2∑ = 0.110

i =8 i 2 i =0 i 2

(The t test based on the mean has P-value = 0.0453. However recall that

the t test assumes a normal population)

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 5

Normal Approximation to Test Statistic

If the sample size is large ( ≥ 20) the common of S+ and S− is

approximated by a normal distribution with

1 n

E ( S + ) = E ( S− ) = np = n = ,

2 2

1 1 n

Var ( S+ ) = Var ( S − ) = np(1 − p) = n =

2 2 4

Therefore can perform a one-sided z - test with

s − n 2 −1 2

z= +

n4

P-values for Sign

Test Using JMP

to the binomial ( = z2 )

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 7

Treatment of Ties

• Theory of the test assumes that the distribution of

the data is continuous so in theory ties are

impossible

• In practice they do occur because of rounding

• A simple solution is to ignore the ties and work

only with the untied observation. This does reduce

the effective sample size of the test and hence its

power, but the loss is not significant if there are

only a few ties

Comfidence Interval for µ

Let x(1) ≤ x(2) ≤ ⋅⋅⋅ ≤ x( n ) be the ordered data values.

Then a (1-α )-level CI for µ is given by

x(b +1) ≤ µ ≤ x( n −b )

where b = bn ,1−α 2 is the lower α 2 critical point

of the Bin ( n,1 2 ) distribution.

of the discreteness of the Binomial distribution

Thermostat Setting: Sign Confidence

Interval for the Median

From Table A.1 we see that for n = 10 and p=0.5,

the lower 0.011 critical point of the binomial

distribution is 1 and by symmetry the upper 0.011

critical point is 9.

Setting α 2 = 0.011 which gives 1-α = 1 − 0.022 = 0.978,

we find that

199.0 = x(2) ≤ µ ≤ x(9) = 203.7

is a 97.8% CI for µ .

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 10

Sign Test for Matched Pairs

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 11

Sign Test for Matched Pairs

Sign Test for Matched Pairs in JMP

Pearson’s p-value is not the same

as the book’s two-sided P-value

because the book uses the

continuity correction in the

normal approximation to the

binomial distribution,

i.e, book uses z = 3.336 (Page

567) rather than z = 3.544745

used by JMP. Note that

(3.544745)2 = 12.5652

book

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 13

Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test

H 0 : µ = µ0 vs. H1 : µ ≠ µ0

More powerful than the sign test, however, it requires the

assumption that the population distribution is symmetric

1. Rank and order the differences in terms of their absolute value

Example 14.1 and 14.4: Thermostat Setting is 200° F

w+ = 6 + 8 + 1 + 7 + 10 + 9 + 2 + 4

3. Reject H0 if w+ is large or small

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 14

Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test in JMP

significant

difference at

α=0.05 while the

sign test did not

at even α=0.1

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 15

Normal Approximation in the Wilcoxon

Signed Rank Test

For large n, the null distribution of W ∼ W+ ∼ W-

can be well-approximated by a normal distribution

with mean and variance given by

n(n + 1) n(n + 1)(2n + 1)

E (W ) = and Var (W ) = .

4 24

For large samples a one-sided (greater than median)

z-test uses the statistic

w+ − n(n + 1) / 4 − 1/ 2

z=

n(n + 1)(2n + 1) 24

Importance of Symmetric Population

Assumption

Here even though H0 is true the long right hand tail makes the positive

differences tend to be larger in magnitude than the negative differences,

resulting in higher ranks. This inflates w+ and hence the test’s type I error

probability.

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 17

Null

Distribution of

the Wilcoxon

Signed Rank

Statistics

Null Distribution of the

Wilcoxon Signed Rank Statistics

Wilcoxon Signed Rank Statistic:

Treatment of Ties

• There are two types of ties

– Some of the data is equal to the median

• Drop these observations

– Some of the differences from the median

may be tied

• Use midrank, that is, the average rank

For example, suppose

d1 = −1, d 2 = +3, d3 = −3, d 4 = +5 With ties Table A.10

Then is only approximate

(2 + 3)

r1 = 1, r2 = r3 = = 2.5, r4 = 4

2

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 20

Wilcoxon Sign Rank Test:

Matched Pair Design Notice that we drop the

three zero differences

Example 14.5: Comparing Two

Methods of Cardiac Output Notice that we average the

tied ranks

Two-Side P-values

Signed test: 0.0008

Signed Rank test: 0.0002

t-test: 0.0000671 (Page 284)

progressively more stringent

assumptions about the

population of differences)

JMP Calculation

Signed Rank Confidence Interval for the Median

Thermostat Setting: Wilcoxon Signed

Rank Confidence Interval for Median

From Table A.10 we see that for n = 10, the upper 2.4%

critical point is 47 and by symmetry the lower 2.4%

10(10 + 1)

critical point is - 47 = 55 - 47 = 8.

2

Setting α 2 = 0.024 and hence 1-α=1-0.048=0.952

we find that

+200.10 = x9 = x8+1 ≤ µ ≤ x47 = 203.55

is a 95.2% CI for µ

Inferences for Two Independent Samples

One wants to show that the observations from one population

tend to be larger than those from another population based on

independent random samples

Examples:

•Treated patients tend to live longer than untreated patients

•An equity fund tends to have a higher yield than a bond fund

Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Test Example:

Time to Failure of Two Capacitor Groups

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 26

Stochastic Ordering of Populations

X is stochastically larger than Y ( X Y )

if for all real numbers u ,

P ( X > u ) ≥ P(Y > u )

equivalently,

P ( X ≤ u ) = F1 (u ) ≤ F2 (u ) = P(Y ≤ u )

with strict inequality for at least some u.

Denoted by X Y or equivalently by F1 < F2 )

Stochastic Ordering Especial Case:

Location Difference

Notice that X 2 ≺ X 1 iff θ 2 < θ1

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 28

Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Test

H 0 : F1 = F2 ( X ∼ Y )

Alternatives :

One sided: H1 : F1 < F2 ( X Y)

Two sided: H1 : F1 < F2 or F2 < F1 ( X Y or Y X)

(Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test can handle this alternative)

Wilcoxon Version of the Test

H 0 : F1 = F2 ( X ∼ Y ) vs. H1 : F1 < F2 ( X Y)

1. Rank all N = n1 + n2 observations,

x1 , x2 ,..., xn1 and y1 , y2 ,..., yn2

in ascending order

2. Sum the ranks of the x's and y's separately.

Denote these sums by w1 and w2

3. Reject H 0 if w1 is large or equivalently w2 is small

Mann-Whitney Test Version

the same distribution applies whether we use u1 or u2

Null Distribution of the Wilcoxon-

Mann-Whitney Test Statistic

equal chance of occurring, namely, 1/10

5

= 10

2

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 32

Null Distribution of the Wilcoxon-

Mann-Whitney Test Statistic

( H1 : X Y)

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 33

Normal Approximation of Mann-

Whitney Statistic

For large n1 and n2 , the null distribution of U can be

well approximated by a normal distribution with

mean and variance given by

n1n2 n1n2 ( N + 1)

E (U ) = and Var (U ) =

2 12

A large sample one-sided z - test can be based on the statistic

u1 − n1n2 2 − 1 2

z=

n1n2 ( N + 1) ( H1 : X Y)

12

Treatment of Ties

A tie occurs when some x equal a y.

– A contribution of ½ is counted towards both u1

and u2 for each tied pair

– Equivalent to using the midrank method in

computing the Wilcoxon rank sum statistic

Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Confidence Interval

for the difference of the two medians of the failure times of capacitors.

This example is in the book errata since Table A.11 is not detailed enough.

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 36

Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Test in JMP

With

continuity

correction.

Used in

the book

which gets

a one-

sided p-

value of

0.0502

Without

continuity

correction

7/26/2004 z2=1.6882 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 37

Inference for Several Independent Samples:

Kruskal-Wallis Test

is a completely

randomized

design

Kruskal-Wallis Test

H 0 : F1 = F2 = ⋅⋅⋅ = Fa vs. H1 : Fi < Fj for some i ≠ j

Reject H 0 if kw > χ 2

a −1,α average rank

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 39

Chi-Square Approximation

• For large samples the distribution of KW under the

null hypothesis can be approximated by the chi-

square distribution with a-1 degrees of freedom

• So reject H0 if

kw > χ a −1,α

Kruskal-Wallis Test Example

Reject if

kw is large.

χ 3,.005

2

= 12.837

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 41

Kruskal-Wallis Test in JMP

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 43

•Case method is different from Unitary method

•Formula method is different from Unitary method

Pairwise Comparisons:

Is Any Pair of Treatments Different?

• One can use the Tukey Method on the average ranks to make

approximate pairwise comparisons.

substituted for the observations in the normal theory methods.

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 46

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 47

Tukey’s Test Applied to the Ranks Averaged

Lack of

agreement

with the more

precise method

of Example

14.10. Here

Equation

method also

seems to be

different from

Formula and

Case method

Example of Friedman’s Test

χ 7,.025

2

= 16.012 - P-value =.0040 vs. .0003 for ANOVA table

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 49

Inference for Several Matched Samples

Randomized Block Design:

i a ≥ 2 treatment groups

i b ≥ 2 blocks

i yij = observation on the i-th treatment in the j-th block

i Fij = c.d.f of r.v. Yij corresponding to the observed value yij

For simplicity assume Fij ( y ) = F ( y − θ i − β j )

iθ i is the "treatment effect"

i β j is the "block effect"

i.e., we assume that there is no

treatment by block interaction

Friedman Test

H 0 : θ1 = θ 2 = ⋅⋅⋅ = θ a vs. H1 : θ i > θ j for some i ≠ j

Reject if fr > χ 2

a −1,α of the ranks from their

expected value when

there is no agreement

between the blocks

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 51

Pairwise Comparisons

Rank Correlation Methods

• The Pearson correlation coefficient

– measures only the degree of linear association between

two variables

– Inferences use the assumption of bivariate normality of

the two variables

• We present two correlation coefficients that

– Take into account only the ranks of the observations

– Measure the degree of monotonic (increasing or

decreasing) association between two variables

Motivating Example

( x, y ) = (1, e1 ), (2, e 2 ), (3, e3 ), (4, e 4 ), (5, e5 )

x and y with y = ex.

because the relationship is not linear

for these data

Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient

association and rs = +1 when there is a perfect positive association

Example 14.12 (Wine Consumption and

Heart Disease Deaths per 100,000

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 57

Calculation of Spearman’s Rho

Test for Association Based on Spearman’s Rank

Correlation Coefficient

Hypothesis Testing Example

H 0 : X = Wine Consumption and

Y = Heart Disease Deaths are independent.

vs.

H1 : X and Y are (negatively or positively) associated

z = rS n − 1 = −0.826 19 − 1 = −3.504

Two-Sided P − value = 0.0004

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 60

JMP Calculations:

Pearson Correlation

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0 2 4 6 8 10

Alcohol from Wine

Pearson correlation

JMP Calculations: Spearman Rank Correlation

Kendall’s Rank Correlation Coefficient:

Key Concept Examples

Concordant pairs:

(1,2), (4,9) (1 - 4)(2 - 9)>0 Kendall’s

(4,2), (3,1) (4 - 3)(2 - 1)>0 idea is to

compare the

Discordant pairs: number of

(1,2), (9,1) (1 - 9)(2 - 1)<0 concordant

(2,4), (3,1) (2 - 3)(4 - 1)<0 pairs to the

number of

Tied pairs: discordant

(1,3), (1,5) (1 – 1)(3 – 5)=0 pairs in

(1,4), (2,4) (1 – 2)(4 – 4)=0 bivariate data

(1,2), (1,2) (1 – 1)(2 – 2)=0

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 63

(X, Y)

(1, 2) Kendall’s Tau

(3, 4) Example

(2, 1)

n 3

Number of pairwise comparisons = = = 3 = N

2 2

Concordant pairs: Discordant pairs: Nc − Nd

τˆ =

(1,2) (3,4) (1,2) (2,1) N

(3,4) (2,1) 2 −1

=

3

Nc = 2 Nd=1 1

=

3

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 64

Kendall’s Rank Correlation Coefficient:

Population Version

Kendall’s Rank Correlation Coefficient:

Sample Estimate

Let N c = Number of concordant pairs in the data

Let N d = Number of disconcordant pairs in the data

n

Let N = be the number of pairwise comparisons among

2

the observations ( xi , yi ), i = 1, 2,..., n. Then

Nc − Nd

τˆ = and N c + N d = N if no ties

N

Nc − Nd

τ=

ˆ if ties

( N − Tx )( N − Ty )

where Tx and Ty are corrections for the number of tied pairs.

Hypothesis of Independence Versus Positive Association

Wine data:

-.696 -4.164

JMP

Calculations:

Kendall’s

Rank

Correlation

Coefficient

Kendall’s Coefficient of Concordance

• Measure of association between several matched samples

• Closely related to Friedman’s test statistic

– Consider a candidates (treatments) and b judges (blocks) with each

judge ranking the a candidates

• If there is perfect agreement between the judges, then each

candidate gets the same rank. Assuming the candidates are

labeled in the order of their ranking, the rank sum for the ith

candidate would be ri= ib

• If the judges rank the candidates completely at random

(“perfect disagreement”) then the expected rank of each

candidate would be [1+2+…+a]/a =[a(a+1)/2]/a=(a+1)/2,

and the expected value of all the rank sums would equal to

b(a+1)/2

Kendall’s Coefficient of Concordance

Kendall’s Coefficient of Concordance

and Friedman’s Test

24.667

w= = 0.881

4(8 − 1)

Do You Need to Know More

“Nonparametric Statistical Methods, Second Edition”

by Myles Hollander and Douglas A. Wolfe. (1999)

Wiley-Interscience

Resampling Methods

• Conventional methods are based on the sampling

distribution of a statistic computed for the

observed sample. The sampling distribution is

derived by considering all possible samples of size

n from the underlying population.

• Resampling methods generate the sampling

distribution of the statistic by drawing repeated

samples from the observed sample itself. This

eliminates the need to assume a specific functional

form for the population distribution (e.g. normal).

Challenger Shuttle O-Ring Data

more O-ring incidents?

•Notice that assumptions of two sample t test do not hold.

•Original analysis omitted the zeros? Was this justified?

•What do we do?

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 75

Wrong t-test Analysis

Difference of Low

mean to High mean

independent sample t-test do not hold,

i.e., data is not normal for each group.

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 76

Permutation Distribution of t Statistic

size 20 from the 24 data points, labeling these High and the rest Low

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 77

Comments

• A randomization test is a permutation test applied

to data from a randomized experiment.

Randomization tests are the gold standard for

establishing causality.

• A permutation test considers all possible simple

random samples without replacement from the set

of observed data values

• The bootstrap method considers a large number of

simple random samples with replacement from

the set of observed data values.

Calculation of t Statistics from 10,000

Bootstrap Samples

Think that we are placing the 24

Challenger data values in a hat.

And that we are randomly selecting

24 values with replacement from

the hat, labeling the first 20 values

High and the remaining 4 values

Low. We repeat these process

10,000 times. For each of these

10,000 bootstrap samples we

calculate the t-statistic. 35 t-

statistics values were greater than

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

or equal to 3.888 out of 10000 (if sp

= 0, t is defined to be 0). This gives

a bootstrap P-value of 35/10000 =

0.0035

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 79

Bootstrap Distribution of Difference

Between the Means

67 of the 10,000 differences

of the Low mean and the

High mean were greater than

or equal to 1.3. This gives a

bootstrap P-value of

67/10000 = .0067

Conclusion: Cold

weather increases the

-1 0 1 2 chance of O-ring

problems

Bootstrap Final Remarks

• The JMP files - that we used to generate the

bootstrap samples and to calculate the statistics -

are available at the course web site.

• There are bootstrap procedures for most types of

statistical problems. All are based on resampling

from the data.

• These methods do not assume specific functional

forms for the distribution of the data, e.g. normal

• The accuracy of bootstrap procedures depend on

the sample size and the number of bootstrap

samples generated

How Were

the

Bootstrap

Samples

Generated?

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 83

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 84

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 85

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 86

Calculated Columns in JMP Samples File

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 88

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 89

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 90

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 91

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 92

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 93

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 94

Bootstrap Estimate of the Standard Error of the Mean

bootstrap estimates of the mean

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 95

BSE for Arbitrary Statistic

drawing a large number N, e.g. 10000, of bootstrap samples from the

data. For each bootstrap sample we calculated the sample median.

Then we calculate the standard deviation of the N bootstrap medians.

Estimated Bootstrap Standard Error for t-

statistics Using JMP

Note N =10,000

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 97

Bootstrap Standard Error Interpretation

approximate normal distribution

• Confidence interval interpretation

– 68% of the time the bootstrap estimate (the

average of the bootstrap estimates) will be within

one standard error of true parameter value

– 95% of the time the bootstrap estimate (the

average of the bootstrap estimates) will be within

two standard error of true parameter value

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals –

Percentile Method: Median Example

1. Draw N (= 10000) bootstrap samples from the data and for

each calculate the (bootstrap) sample median.

2. The 2.5 percentile of the N bootstrap sample medians will

be the LCL for a 95% confidence interval

3. The 97.5 percentile of the N bootstrap sample medians will

be the UCL for a 95% confidence interval

0.025 0.025

LCL UCL

7/26/2004 Unit 14 - Stat 571 - Ramón V. León 99

Do You Need to Know More?

by Bradley Efrom and Robert J. Tibshirani.

(1993) Chapman & Hall/CRC

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