Statistics problems

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1. A game of chance consists of rolling three ordinary six-sided dice. The player

bets $1 per game, and wins $1 for each occurrence of the number 6 on any of the

dice, retaining the original bet in that case. How much is the expected amount to

win in this game?

Solution:

We define the random variable

𝑋 = dollars gained on the game

and the event

𝐴𝑖 = dice 𝑖 shows 6 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3

with probability

1

𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) = 6

i. No 6 is gotten on any dice. Gambler loses his bet. (𝑥 = −1)

ii. 1-3 dice get 6. Gambler recovers his bet and gains the same amount as 6s

obtained on dice. (𝑥 = 1, 2, 3)

Hence, we know variable’s range:

𝑅𝑋 = {−1,1,2,3}

Now, we must get all probabilities:

5 3 125

𝑃(𝑥 = −1) = 𝑃(𝐴1𝐶 ∩ 𝐴𝐶2 ∩ 𝐴𝐶3 ) = (6) = 216

𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 𝑃((𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴𝐶2 ∩ 𝐴𝐶3 ) ∪ (𝐴1𝐶 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴𝐶3 ) ∪ (𝐴1𝐶 ∩ 𝐴𝐶2 ∩ 𝐴3 ))

1 5 2 75

𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 3 (6) (6) = 216

5 1 2 15

𝑃(𝑥 = 2) = 3 (6) (6) = 216

1 3 1

𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = (6) = 216

National University of Engineering

Faculty of Civil Engineering

Academic Department of Basic Sciences

x -1 1 2 3

125 75 15 1

P(X = x)

216 216 216 216

𝐸(𝑋) = ∑ 𝑥 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)

125 75 15 1

𝐸(𝑋) = −1 (216) + 1 (216) + 2 (216) + 3 (216)

17

𝐸(𝑋) = − 216

2. The number of male mates of a queen bee was found to have a Poisson

distribution with parameter λ = 2.7.

probabilities until they are zero to 4 decimal places. (Use Excel)

b) Draw a histogram of the probabilities in part (a). (Use Excel)

Solution:

𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑥

a) Using Poisson’s formula: 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = , we generate the table.

𝑥!

x P(x)

0 0.0672

1 0.1815

2 0.2450

3 0.2205

4 0.1488

5 0.0804

6 0.0362

7 0.0139

8 0.0047

9 0.0014

10 0.0004

11 0.0001

12 0.0000

National University of Engineering

Faculty of Civil Engineering

Academic Department of Basic Sciences

Poisson distribution

0.3000

0.2500

0.2000

P(X=x)

0.1500

0.1000

0.0500

0.0000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

x

3. A survey found that the traffic flowing through an intersection with an average

of 3 cars per 30 seconds. Assume the traffic flow can be modeled as a Poisson

distribution.

a) Find the minimum number of cars through the intersection so that the

probability of this number or fewer cars in 30 seconds is at least 90%.

b) If the variance of the number of cars through the intersection per minute is

20, is the Poisson distribution appropriate?

Solution:

a) For t = 30s we find λ = 3.

We are asked for a number of cars 𝑥0 , which can be obtained from the

expression:

𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥0 ) ≥ 0.9

Using a Poisson table, we find the first cumulative probability that surpasses

0.9 given λ = 3. This is first achieved on 0.9161, and so we get 𝑥0 = 5.

National University of Engineering

Faculty of Civil Engineering

Academic Department of Basic Sciences

For t = 60s, we now find λ = 6.

We know that, for a Poisson distribution, variance is equal to parameter.

Then

𝑉(𝑋) = 𝜆

𝑉(𝑋) = 6

In the condition, we find 𝑉(𝑋) = 20, which is not even near to the Poisson

value. Therefore, a Poisson distribution cannot be assumed.

experiment. If the random experiment is not a binomial experiment, indicate

why. [Hint: Review the characteristics of a binomial experiment.]

the number of individuals responding favorably recorded.

b) A random sample of 100 registered democrats is chosen and the respondents

are asked if they favor gun control.

c) Three cards are randomly selected from a deck of 52 playing cards with

replacement. The number of kings chosen is recorded.

d) A random sample of 20 vehicles is taken from a state motor pool parking lot

and the mileage is noted.

e) A field-goal kicker has a 20% chance of making a successful kick from 50

yards away. He is asked to keep kicking from that distance until he makes

his first field goal.

National University of Engineering

Faculty of Civil Engineering

Academic Department of Basic Sciences

Solution:

We remember a binomial experiment must satisfy four conditions:

The number of trials is fixed.

Trials must have only two outcomes: success or failure.

Each trial is independent from all others.

Success probability is the same for all trials.

a) There are 50 trials to be performed on patients, hence, this number is fixed.

We do have two opposite outcomes: favorable and unfavorable.

One patient’s result doesn’t modify any of the others. Trials are independent.

Probability is constant across trials.

a) is a binomial experiment.

chosen and its ideas are mostly related. In addition, one’s opinion may affect

someone else’s, e.g., leader’s opinion.

We have success: getting a king, and failure.

Since this is a finite experiment with replacement, each trial is independent.

Success probability is the same for all trials: 1 / 13.

c) is a binomial experiment.

two opposite outcomes. We instead have a range of infinite continuous

results.

cannot be determined firsthand, it depends on each trial’s results.

National University of Engineering

Faculty of Civil Engineering

Academic Department of Basic Sciences

For a continuous random variable 𝑋, 𝑋 ~ 𝐸𝑋𝑃(𝜃) if and only if

𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡/𝑋 > 𝑎] = 𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑡]

for all 𝑎 > 0 and 𝑡 > 0

Solution:

We develop left’s expression.

𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡 ∧ 𝑋 > 𝑎] 𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡]

𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡/𝑋 > 𝑎] = =

𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎] 𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎]

Then

𝑒 −𝜆(𝑎+𝑡)

𝑃[𝑋 > 𝑎 + 𝑡/𝑋 > 𝑎] =

𝑒 −𝜆𝑎

6. If 𝑄~𝑈(0,3), find the probability that the roots of the equation 𝑔(𝑡) = 0 are

real. Where 𝑔(𝑡) = 4𝑡 2 + 4𝑄𝑡 + 𝑄 + 2

Solution:

We first get the probability density function of the random variable 𝑄

1

; 0≤𝑥≤3

𝑓(𝑥) = {3

0; 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

since it is a uniform distribution.

Now, we must find the values that make the equation roots real.

National University of Engineering

Faculty of Civil Engineering

Academic Department of Basic Sciences

∆𝑔(𝑡) ≥ 0

(4𝑄)2 − 4(4)(𝑄 + 2) ≥ 0

𝑄2 − 𝑄 − 2 ≥ 0

(𝑄 − 2)(𝑄 + 1) ≥ 0

Namely:

−1 ∞ −1 3 ∞

1

𝑃(𝐴) = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = ∫ 0 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 𝑑𝑥 + ∫ 0 𝑑𝑥

−∞ 2 −∞ 2 3 3

3

1 𝑥3

𝑃(𝐴) = ∫ 𝑑𝑥 = [ ]

2 3 32

2 1

𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − =

3 3

1

Answer: 3 is the probability for roots being real.

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