You are on page 1of 3

SEPTEMBER ALASKA SURVEY RESULTS Conducted by Ivan Moore Research, Anchorage, Alaska Fielding dates – September 23-27, 2010 Statewide

Alaska Adults 18+ 750 sample - 450 landline, 300 cellphone MOE: +3.7% Subsample: Registered and likely General voters 573 sample MOE: +4.1%

For interviews, please contact Ivan Moore at... ivan@ivanmooreresearch.com

CONGRESS:
Q: If the 2010 General Election for U.S. Congress was held today and the candidates were... for whom would you vote for U.S. Congress? Don Young, Republican Harry Crawford, Democrat Undecided 64.5% 31.7% 3.8%

GOVERNOR:
Q: If the 2010 General Election for Alaska Governor was held today and the candidates were... for whom would you vote for Governor? Sean Parnell, Republican Ethan Berkowitz, Democrat Other Undecided 53.1% 34.8% 6.3% 5.8%

U.S. SENATE:
Q: If the 2010 General Election for U.S. Senate was held today and the candidates were... for whom would you vote for U.S. Senate? (NOTE: No mention is made of Lisa Murkowski as a candidate in this question.) Joe Miller, Republican Scott McAdams, Democrat Frederick Haase, Libertarian Lisa Murkowski (volunteered) Undecided 43.2% 27.8% 1.8% 18.0% 9.2%

Follow-up question asked of the 82% who did not volunteer Lisa Murkowski: Q: As you may know, Lisa Murkowski is running a write-in campaign for U.S. Senate. Knowing this, would your vote for U.S. Senate stay the same or would you write in Lisa Murkowski? Stay the same Write in Lisa Murkowski Not sure 55.1% 31.1% 13.8%

COMPUTED RESULT – Initial vote question revised with prompted Lisa Murkowski votes... Joe Miller, Republican Scott McAdams, Democrat Frederick Haase, Libertarian Lisa Murkowski (volunteered) Undecided 35.8% 13.7% 1.5% 43.5% 5.5%

PUBLISHED COMMENTARY – Anchorage Press, September 30, 2010
“If the Lisa voters in this second question have their first vote changed to reflect their subsequent choice, we see this: Joe Miller goes down from 43 percent to 36; Scott McAdams goes down from 28 percent to 14; and Lisa Murkowski goes up from 18 percent to 43. A nearly 8 point lead. She takes twice as many votes from McAdams, whose chances of winning frankly disappear. Now, the reality of the situation is that neither of these results is going to be correct. The first should be perceived as a minimum for Lisa, the latter a maximum. The reality lies somewhere in between… the question is where? Personally, I think the second measure is what will happen in an ideal, impediment-less world, and should be adjusted downwards by what we’d reasonably expect the attritional effects of the write-in to be. I have always maintained these will be relatively minimal, maybe not much more than a few percent of people who somehow remain unaware come election day that Lisa is an option, or get her name wrong, or don’t fill in the oval, or decide they can’t be bothered to write a name.” Ivan Moore – www.anchoragepress.com