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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 30TH JULY 2018, 6 AM MST

UltraPoll - Alberta Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
30th July 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all
a survey conducted between July 15th to 17th, three levels of government, President and CEO
2018 among a sample of 936 adults, 18 years Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
of age or older, living in Alberta. The survey international public affairs.
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
interviews on both landlines and cellular Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a national telephone directory compiled by a Liberal majority government in the 2015
Mainstreet Research from various sources and federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
random digit dialing. The part of the survey predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
that dialed from the directory was conducted elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
as a stratified dial of the following regions; special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
Calgary, Edmonton, and the rest of Alberta. a member of the World Association for Public
In the case of random digit dials, respondents Opinion Research and meets international and
were asked the additional question of what Canadian publication standards.
region of the province they resided in.
CONTACT INFORMATION
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet In Ottawa:
Research and was not sponsored by a third Quito Maggi, President
party. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

The margin of error for the first survey is +/- In Toronto:
3.26% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
THE UCP HAVE WIDE LEAD OVER THE NDP

30 July 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The United Conservative Party holds a substantial
lead over the governing NDP, nearly returning to the same levels of support
that the UCP had in January.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a
conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 936 Albertans between
July 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.26% and is accurate 19
times out of 20.

“The UCP have rebounded from their numbers in April and have again crossed
the 50% mark among decided and leaning voters,” said Quito Maggi, President
and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “That said, the NDP have over 30% support
and are best poised to mount a challenge to the UCP next year.”

“As it stands now, next year’s election will be a battle between the UCP and the
NDP.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP led by Jason Kenney currently
enjoy just over 52% support while the NDP led by Rachel Notley have 32.5%
support. The Alberta Party with Stephen Mandel at the helm have 5.4%. The
Liberals led by David Khan are at 4.8%, and the Greens have 3.1% support.

The poll also found that Albertans have a positive view of Kenney compared to
Notley. While respondents have +9.8% net rating of Kenney, Notley has a -12.7%
rating.

Khan, Mendel, and interim Green party leader Coral Bliss Taylor also have a net
negative favourability rating. However these numbers must be viewed in light
of the fact that over 50% of respondents either were not sure or not familiar
with these three leaders.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

7.8%
2.0%
2.9%

5.0%

4.4%

47.5%
All Voters

All Voters
30.4%

Decided and Leaning Voters
8.1%
1.8%
1.3% 2.1%
3.1%
5.1% 5.4%
United Conservatives NDP Alberta Liberals Alberta Party
31.5%
4.8% Greens Another Party Undecided
5.3%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters 52.1%

32.5%

46.9%

NDP United Conservatives Alberta Liberals Alberta Party
United Conservatives NDP Alberta Liberals Alberta Party
Greens Another Party Undecided
Greens Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

2.8%
9.4%

16.7%

33.9%
19.1%
40.7%

Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

46.6% David Khan 30.9%

8.5%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar

19.1%

41.7%

David Khan

Rachel Notley
Stephen Mandel Coral Bliss
30.6% Taylor

2.8%

5.6%
Favourable
16.7%
15.4% Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar

27.3% 14.8%
33.9%

Rachel Notley
49.6%
Stephen Mandel Coral Bliss Taylor
22.8%

30.0%
46.6%

34.5%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 30.4% 28.6% 32.1% 29% 34.4% 29.5% 27.4% 31.7% 36.3% 22.8%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 47.5% 52.6% 42.6% 43.9% 45.7% 48.9% 55.9% 44.4% 46.3% 53.1%
Liberals led by David Khan 4.4% 3.3% 5.5% 8.1% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 7.6% 2.2% 2.1%
Alberta Party led Stephen Mandel 5% 3.7% 6.2% 7.2% 2.7% 6% 2.9% 3.4% 6% 6.2%
Alberta Green Party led by Coral Bliss-Taylor 2.9% 2.8% 3% 2.8% 4.1% 2% 2.6% 3.3% 0.9% 4.3%
Another Party 2% 2.5% 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 3.2%
Undecided 7.8% 6.5% 9% 6.9% 7.1% 9.1% 8.8% 8% 6.7% 8.4%
Unweighted Frequency 936 544 392 151 225 263 297 233 302 401
Weighted Frequency 936 496 504 317 276 250 158 419 282 300

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 31.6% 28.9% 34.4% 30.7% 35.3% 30.3% 29.2% 33.4% 37% 24.1%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 50.7% 54.9% 46.6% 47.3% 49.3% 51.9% 57.9% 48.2% 48.2% 56.5%
Liberals led by David Khan 4.7% 3.6% 5.8% 8.1% 4.3% 2.9% 1.6% 7.6% 2.6% 2.7%
Alberta Party led Stephen Mandel 5.2% 4.1% 6.4% 7.2% 3% 6.4% 3.2% 3.4% 6.7% 6.4%
Alberta Green Party 3% 2.9% 3% 2.8% 4.1% 2.2% 2.6% 3.3% 1.1% 4.3%
Another Party 2.1% 2.7% 1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 3.2%
Undecided 2. 7% 2.9% 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 4.1% 4.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9%
Unweighted Frequency 936 544 392 151 225 263 297 233 302 401
Weighted Frequency 936 496 504 317 276 250 158 419 282 300

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 32.5% 29.8% 35.1% 31.2% 35.8% 31.7% 30.5% 34.3% 37.9% 24.9%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 52.1% 56.5% 47.8% 48.2% 50.1% 54.1% 60.5% 49.6% 49.5% 58.2%
Liberals led by David Khan 4.8% 3.7% 5.9% 8.2% 4.3% 3.1% 1.7% 7.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Alberta Party led Stephen Mandel 5.4% 4.2% 6.5% 7.3% 3% 6.7% 3.4% 3.5% 6.9% 6.5%
Alberta Green Party 3.1% 3% 3.1% 2.9% 4.2% 2.3% 2.7% 3.4% 1.2% 4.3%
Another Party 2.1% 2.8% 1.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 3.3%
Unweighted Frequency 905 525 380 147 222 251 285 224 294 387
Weighted Frequency 905 481 488 307 267 243 153 406 273 290
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 33.9% 33.3% 34.5% 30.6% 37.0% 34.0% 35.1% 36.1% 40.9% 24.1%
Unfavourable 46.6% 51.7% 41.6% 48.7% 46.1% 46.5% 43.7% 44.5% 39.2% 56.8%
Not Sure 16.7% 12% 21.2% 16.1% 15.3% 18.1% 17.8% 18.1% 16.7% 14.6%
Not Familiar with Rachel Notley 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 4.6% 1.5% 1.5% 3.4% 1.2% 3.3% 4.5%
Unweighted Frequency 936 544 392 151 225 263 297 233 302 401
Weighted Frequency 936 496 504 317 276 250 158 419 282 300

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 40.7% 46.6% 34.8% 37.1% 39.6% 41.6% 48.3% 40.6% 34% 47.2%
Unfavourable 30.9% 30.1% 31.6% 30% 33.9% 30.5% 28% 31.2% 38% 23.4%
Not Sure 19.1% 17.9% 20.3% 17.5% 20.9% 19.6% 18.5% 17.1% 20.8% 20.2%
Not Familiar with Jason Kenney 9.4% 5.3% 13.4% 15.5% 5.6% 8.3% 5.2% 11% 7.2% 9.2%
Unweighted Frequency 936 544 392 151 225 263 297 233 302 401
Weighted Frequency 936 496 504 317 276 250 158 419 282 300

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of David Khan?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 8.5% 9% 8% 12% 10% 6% 2.8% 10% 9.7% 5.4%
Unfavourable 19.1% 24.8% 13.5% 16.7% 22.2% 18.4% 19.9% 17.7% 17.2% 23%
Not Sure 30.6% 28.8% 32.4% 24.5% 34.8% 32.8% 32.3% 29.3% 34.1% 29%
Not Familiar with David Khan 41.7% 37.3% 46.1% 46.7% 33% 42.8% 45% 43% 39% 42.6%
Unweighted Frequency 936 544 392 151 225 263 297 233 302 401
Weighted Frequency 936 496 504 317 276 250 158 419 282 300

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Stephen Mandel?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 15.4% 16.9% 13.8% 11.1% 17.6% 19.3% 14.1% 8.4% 29.9% 10.7%
Unfavourable 22.8% 26.3% 19.4% 18.7% 24.3% 25% 25.1% 13.9% 30.7% 27.4%
Not Sure 34.5% 31.5% 37.5% 34.8% 35.8% 31.3% 37.1% 41.2% 28.9% 31%
Not Familiar with Stephen Mandel 27.3% 25.2% 29.3% 35.3% 22.4% 24.5% 23.7% 36.5% 10.4% 30.9%
Unweighted Frequency 936 544 392 151 225 263 297 233 302 401
Weighted Frequency 936 496 504 317 276 250 158 419 282 300

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Coral Bliss Taylor?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 5.6% 6% 5.3% 7.9% 6.2% 4.1% 2.5% 7.4% 5% 3.8%
Unfavourable 14.8% 18.6% 10.9% 13% 16.3% 15.2% 14.8% 14.6% 12.8% 16.9%
Not Sure 30% 30.8% 29.2% 29.5% 34.3% 28.3% 26.3% 29.3% 32.6% 28.3%
Not Familiar with Coral Bliss Taylor 49.6% 44.5% 54.7% 49.6% 43.2% 52.4% 56.3% 48.7% 49.6% 50.9%
Unweighted Frequency 936 544 392 151 225 263 297 233 302 401
Weighted Frequency 936 496 504 317 276 250 158 419 282 300
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held unfavourable opinion of Jason
today, which party would you vote Kenney?
for? Favourable opinion
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Unfavourable opinion
Rachel Notley Not sure
United Conservative Party led by Not familiar with Jason Kenney
Jason Kenney
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Do you have a favourable or
Khan unfavourable opinion of David Khan?
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel Favourable opinion
Green Party of Alberta Unfavourable opinion
Another Party Not sure
Undecided Not familiar with David Khan

And which party are you leaning Do you have a favourable or
towards? (only asked of respondents unfavourable opinion of Stephen
who were undecided in previous Mandel?
question) Favourable opinion
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Unfavourable opinion
Rachel Notley Not sure
United Conservative Party led by Not familiar with Stephen Mandel
Jason Kenney
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Do you have a favourable or
Khan unfavourable opinion of Coral Bliss
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel Taylor?
Green Party of Alberta Favourable opinion
Another Party Unfavourable opinion
Undecided Not sure
Not familiar with Coral Bliss Taylor
(the order of the next five questions
were randomized) What is your gender?
Do you have a favourable or Male
unfavourable opinion of Rachel Female
Notley?
Favourable opinion What is your age group?
Unfavourable opinion 18 to 34 years of age
Not sure 35 to 49 years of age
Not familiar with Rachel Notley 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Do you have a favourable or
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between July 15th,
2018, and July 17th, 2018 among a sample of 936 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Alberta. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Alberta.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of three regions in Alberta: Calgary,
Edmonton, and the rest of Alberta. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases,
respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.26% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.2%, Females: +/- 4.95%,
18-34 age group: +/- 7.97%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.53%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.04%, 65+
age group: +/- 5.69%, Calgary +/- 6.42%, Edmonton, 5.64%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 4.89%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.