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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 30TH JULY 2018, 6 AM PST

UltraPoll - British
Columbia Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
30th July 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on a survey With 20 years of political experience in all
conducted between July 15th to 17th, 2018 three levels of government, President and CEO
among a sample of 933 adults, 18 years of age Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
or older, living in British Columbia. The survey international public affairs.
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
interviews on both landlines and cellular Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict
Research and was not sponsored by a third a Liberal majority government in the 2015
party. federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
The sampling frame was derived from both elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
a national telephone directory compiled by special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
Mainstreet Research from various sources and a member of the World Association for Public
random digit dialing. The part of the survey Opinion Research and meets international and
that dialed from the directory was conducted Canadian publication standards.
as a stratified dial of three regions in British
Columbia; Greater Vancouver, Vancouver CONTACT INFORMATION
Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the In Ottawa:
case of random digit dials, respondents were Quito Maggi, President
asked the additional question of what region quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
of the country they resided in.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
3.21% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:
report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NDP AND BC LIBERALS IN A DEAD HEAT, BCERS DO NOT LIKE ANY OF THE PARTY LEADERS

30 July 2018 (Vancouver, BC) – The governing NDP and the opposition BC Liberals are in statistically
tied regarding who has the most support among British Columbians.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 933 British Columbians between July 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of
error of +/- 3.21% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Only .7% separate the Horgan NDP and the Wilkinson BC Liberals among decided and leaning
voters”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This might be the narrowest
gap between two parties that we have ever reported.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Andrew Wilkinson lead with 33.9%, but the
governing NDP led by John Horgan follow closely with 33.2% of support. The BC Green Party with
Andrew Weaver at the helm have 16%”.

“Besides how close the two parties are, what is interesting about these numbers is that the BC
Liberals take the lead over the NDP thanks to those who are currently undecided but are leaning
towards voting Liberal if an election were held today,” said Maggi. “This means that NDP vote is
firmer than the Liberals, but the Liberals have a wider base to build from.”

The Liberals have a slight lead in Greater Vancouver and hold a substantial lead in the interior of BC
over the NDP. However, the NDP hold a 13 point lead over the Liberals on Vancouver Island.

The poll also asked favourability ratings for four party leaders and found that British Columbians
have an overall negative opinion of all four party leaders.

“It is unusual that Horgan, Wilkinson, and Weaver have net negative favourability ratings, but it is
even more unusual that over 30% of British Columbians either are not sure or are not familiar with all
of these leaders, especially with a sitting premier.”

“British Columbians are either not paying attention to provincial politics these days or they are not
being inspired to support any of these parties at this stage.”

Wilkinson enjoys the best rating with -4.2% net favourability rating, followed by Weaver with -6.7%,
and then Horgan with -9.5%.

The poll also found that 43.2% do not think that there will be a provincial election within the next
twelve months, while 34.1% think that British Columbians will go to the polls by then. Nearly 23% said
that they were not sure.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

11.1%

2.2%
30.7%

12.1%

All Voters

13.9%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
29.9%

8.2%
1.3% 2.3%
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
14.6%
10.2%
Another Party Undecided 31.5%

33.2%

All Voters
16.0%
14.6% Decided and Leaning Voters

34.2%
33.9%

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
Another Party Undecided
Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

33.2%
33.9%
16.0%
All

14.6%
2.3%

35.2%
Greater Vancouver

36.8%
12.5%
13.0%
2.5%

37.3%
Vancouver Island

24.3%
24.7%
12.5%
1.2%

28.5%
37.1%
Rest of BC

14.1%
17.5%
2.8%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?

John Horgan Andrew Wilkinson

9.3%
18.5%
25.5%
29.1%

23.0%

John Horgan Andrew Wilkinson

22.7%

33.2%
38.6%
Andrew Weaver Scott Anderson
Favourable Unfavourable
John Horgan
Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
7.1%
17.1%
24.0% 9.3%
12.4%

29.1%

43.0%
23.0%
Andrew Weaver Scott Anderson
John Horgan
28.2%

37.5%
30.7%

38.6%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
Do you think that there will be an election within the next
twelve months?

Total 34.1% 43.2% 22.7%

Male 34.5% 45.3% 20.2%

Female 33.8% 41.1% 25.1%

18-34 36% 34.5% 29.5%

35-49 35.8% 38.6% 25.6%

50-64 34.7% 50.4% 14.9%

65+ 29% 50% 21%

Greater Vancouver 34.3% 45.7% 20%

Vancouver Island 39.6% 35.1% 25.3%

Rest of BC 30.5% 45.6% 23.9%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Yes No Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
BC NDP led by John Horgan 30.7% 29.2% 32.2% 28.8% 29.8% 32.6% 31.9% 32.9% 35.3% 25.7%
BC Liberal led by Andrew Wilkinson 29.9% 34.5% 25.5% 19.3% 29.5% 35.1% 37.3% 32.6% 21.2% 32.8%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 13.9% 12.6% 15.3% 16.4% 20% 10.5% 8.3% 10.3% 22.9% 11.9%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 12.1% 12.8% 11.4% 18.9% 9.7% 8.4% 11.1% 9.5% 11.1% 15.3%
Another Party 2.2% 3.3% 1.1% 1.4% 3.4% 2.7% 1.1% 2.4% 1.2% 2.6%
Undecided 11.1% 7.6% 14. 5% 15.2% 7.7% 10.6% 10.3% 12.3% 8.3% 11.6%
Unweighted Frequency 933 518 415 122 184 252 375 350 223 360
Weighted Frequency 933 459 474 251 227 258 197 355 223 356

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
BC NDP led by John Horgan 31.6% 29.4% 33.8% 30.8% 30.1% 33.3% 32.3% 33.8% 35.8% 26.8%
BC Liberal led by Andrew Wilkinson 32.6% 35.7% 29.4% 22.5% 30.5% 38% 40.1% 35.6% 23.5% 35.4%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 15.2% 13.2% 17.2% 19.4% 20.9% 11.5% 8.4% 11.9% 23.6% 13.2%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 13.8% 14.1% 13.5% 20.9% 11.9% 9.6% 12.9% 12.2% 12.1% 16.5%
Another Party 2.3% 3.3% 1.2% 1.5% 3.4% 2.8% 1.1% 2.4% 1.2% 2.7%
Undecided 4.5% 4.2% 4. 9% 5% 3.2% 4.8% 5.2% 4% 3.8% 5.5%
Unweighted Frequency 933 518 415 122 184 252 375 350 223 360
Weighted Frequency 933 459 474 251 227 258 197 355 223 356

(decided and leaning voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
BC NDP led by John Horgan 33.2% 30.7% 35.6% 32.5% 31% 35.1% 34.1% 35.2% 37.3% 28.5%
BC Liberal led by Andrew Wilkinson 33.9% 37.1% 30.8% 23.5% 31.6% 39.7% 42.1% 36.8% 24.3% 37.1%
BC Green Party led by Andrew Weaver 16% 13.9% 18.1% 20.4% 21.8% 12.2% 8.9% 12.5% 24.7% 14.1%
BC Conservatives led by Scott Anderson 14.6% 14.9% 14.3% 22% 12.2% 10% 13.7% 13% 12.5% 17.5%
Another Party 2.3% 3.5% 1.2% 1.6% 3.5% 2.9% 1.1% 2.5% 1.2% 2.8%
Unweighted Frequency 875 495 380 110 176 236 353 332 210 333
Weighted Frequency 875 431 444 236 213 242 185 334 214 327
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
Favourable 29.1% 28.6% 29.6% 28.5% 29.7% 31.8% 25.7% 31% 36% 23%
Unfavourable 38.6% 41.1% 36.1% 31.6% 36.3% 44.5% 42.3% 36.6% 31.4% 45.1%
Not Sure 23% 21.9% 24% 22.1% 28.6% 18.2% 24% 24.7% 22.9% 21.4%
Not Familiar with John Horgan 9.3% 8.3% 10.2% 17.8% 5.4% 5.5% 8% 7.8% 9.8% 10.5%
Unweighted Frequency 933 518 415 122 184 252 375 350 223 360
Weighted Frequency 933 459 474 251 227 258 197 355 223 356

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Wilkinson?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
Favourable 18.5% 22.2% 15% 17.5% 16% 19.7% 21.3% 18.7% 14.6% 20.8%
Unfavourable 22.7% 25.6% 19.9% 20% 22.3% 26.8% 21.2% 23.4% 29.2% 17.9%
Not Sure 33.2% 28% 38.3% 33.4% 33.7% 32% 34.1% 32.5% 34.7% 33%
Not Familiar with Andrew Wilkinson 25.5% 24.3% 26.7% 29.2% 27.9% 21.5% 23.5% 25.3% 21.5% 28.3%
Unweighted Frequency 933 518 415 122 184 252 375 350 223 360
Weighted Frequency 933 459 474 251 227 258 197 355 223 356

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrew Weaver?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
Favourable 24% 24.8% 23.3% 23.8% 26.1% 27% 18% 23.2% 31.8% 19.9%
Unfavourable 30.7% 34.7% 26.9% 27.4% 25.7% 34% 36.4% 29.6% 33.2% 30.3%
Not Sure 28.2% 24.4% 31.9% 30.2% 30% 25.5% 27.2% 29.9% 23.9% 29.2%
Not Familiar with Andrew Weaver 17.1% 16.2% 17.9% 18.5% 18.2% 13.6% 18.4% 17.2% 11.1% 20.6%
Unweighted Frequency 933 518 415 122 184 252 375 350 223 360
Weighted Frequency 933 459 474 251 227 258 197 355 223 356

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Scott Anderson?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
Favourable 7.1% 8.4% 5.8% 11.4% 5.4% 6.6% 4.1% 6.7% 4.2% 9.3%
Unfavourable 12.4% 13.8% 10.9% 13.2% 10.6% 16.6% 7.8% 10.2% 19.6% 10.1%
Not Sure 37.5% 35.6% 39.4% 38.4% 41.9% 33.4% 36.7% 39.9% 33.4% 37.7%
Not Familiar with Scott Anderson 43% 42.1% 43.9% 37% 42.1% 43.3% 51.4% 43.3% 42.8% 43%
Unweighted Frequency 933 518 415 122 184 252 375 350 223 360
Weighted Frequency 933 459 474 251 227 258 197 355 223 356

Do you think there will be an election next month?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Greater Vancouver Vancouver Island Rest of BC
Yes 34.1% 34.5% 33.8% 36% 35.8% 34.7% 29% 34.3% 39.6% 30.5%
No 43.2% 45.3% 41.1% 34.5% 38.6% 50.4% 50% 45.7% 35.1% 45.6%
Not Sure 22.7% 20.2% 25.1% 29.5% 25.6% 14.9% 21% 20% 25.3% 23.9%
Unweighted Frequency 933 518 415 122 184 252 375 350 223 360
Weighted Frequency 933 459 474 251 227 258 197 355 223 356
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held Do you have a favourable or
today, which party would you vote unfavourable opinion of Andrew
for? Wilkinson?
British Columbia New Democratic Favourable opinion
Party led by John Horgan Unfavourable opinion
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Not sure
Andrew Wilkinson Not familiar with Andrew Wilkinson
Green Party of British Columbia led by
Andrew Weaver Do you have a favourable or
British Columbia Conservative Party unfavourable opinion of Andrew
led by Scott Anderson Weaver?
Another Party Favourable opinion
Undecided Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
And which party are you leaning Not familiar with Andrew Weaver
towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous Do you have a favourable or
question) unfavourable opinion of Scott
British Columbia New Democratic Anderson?
Party led by John Horgan Favourable opinion
British Columbia Liberal Party led by Unfavourable opinion
Andrew Wilkinson Not sure
Green Party of British Columbia led by Not familiar with Scott Anderson
Andrew Weaver
British Columbia Conservative Party Do you think that there will be an
led by Scott Anderson election within the next twelve
Another Party months?
Undecided Yes
No
(the order of the next four questions
were randomized) What is your gender?
Do you have a favourable or Male
unfavourable opinion of John Horgan? Female
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion What is your age group?
Not sure 18 to 34 years of age
Not familiar with John Horgan 35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between July 15th,
2018 and July 17th 2018, among a sample of 933 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in the
province of British Columbia. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of British Columbia.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and have not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame for the survey was derived from both a national telephone directory
compiled by Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of Greater Vancouver,
Vancouver Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case of random digit dials,
respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the country they resided
in. In each case, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. The previous statement also applies to the
second survey except the survey was conducted over one day. Interviewing was also spread
as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016
Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for
weighting are age, gender, and region.

The margin of error is +/- 3.21% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in
each subsamples.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.33%, Females: +/-
4.97%, 18-34 age group: +/- 10.89%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.04%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.61%,
65+ age group: +/- 5.48%, Greater Vancouver: +/- 4.78%, Vancouver Island: +/- 7.32%, Rest
of British Columbia: +/- 5.65%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.