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UltraPoll - Newfoundland

and Labrador Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
2nd August 2018
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey was conducted between July three levels of government, President and CEO
15th and July 17th, 2018 among a sample of Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
645 adults, 18 years of age or older, living international public affairs.
in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
interviews on both landlines and cellular snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
phones. a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
The sampling frame was derived from both a Liberal majority government in the 2015
a national telephone directory compiled by federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
Mainstreet Research from various sources predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
and random digit dialing. elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet a member of the World Association for Public
Research and was not sponsored by a third Opinion Research and meets international and
party. Canadian publication standards.

The margin of error for the first survey is +/- CONTACT INFORMATION
3.86% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
(full methodology appears at the end of this quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
report)
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
GOVERNING NEWFOUNDLAND LIBERALS WITH A TEN POINT LEAD OVER
THE PCs

The governing Liberals have a wide lead over the Progressive Conservatives
despite the PCs recently electing Chas Crosbie as their new leader.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a
conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 645 Newfoundland
and Labrador residents between July 15th to 17th. The poll has a margin of error
of +/- 3.86% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals led by Dwight Ball are close to 46% support with the PCs far
behind”, said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The
election of Crosbie as leader has not moved support for the PCs.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 45.8% support, while the
PCs come in with 35.6%. The NDP led by Gerry Rogers have 12.5%.

The Liberals lead the PCs by significant margins among both men and women,
as well as respondents of all age groups.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:
Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

Undecided 13.9%

Another Party 4.8%

Liberals 39.3%

NDP 10.6%
All Voters

Progressive Conservatives 31.5%

Decided and Leaning Voters
Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Another Party Undecided

Another Party 6.0%

NDP 12.5%

Liberals 45.8%

Decided and Leaning Voters

Progressive Conservatives 35.6%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 39.3% 39.3% 39.3% 35% 34.3% 41.8% 45.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 31.5% 31.2% 31.8% 29.8% 28.7% 33.5% 33.2%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 10.6% 10.7% 10.5% 8.4% 16.2% 9.9% 7.8%
Another Party 4.8% 3% 6.8% 10% 4.9% 3.6% 1.2%
Undecided 13.9% 15.9% 11.7% 16.8% 15.9% 11.2% 12.3%
Unweighted Frequency 645 364 281 60 105 221 259
Weighted Frequency 645 333 312 145 156 192 152

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)
Total Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 41.4% 41.5% 41.4% 37.9% 35.2% 43.4% 48.9%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 32.2% 32% 32.4% 30.8% 28.7% 34.1% 34.6%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 11.3% 11.4% 11.2% 8.7% 16.2% 11% 8.9%
Another Party 5.4% 3.5% 7.4% 10.4% 5.9% 4.2% 1.7%
Undecided 9.7% 11.7% 7.7% 12.1% 14.1% 7.3% 5.9%
Unweighted Frequency 645 364 281 60 105 221 259
Weighted Frequency 645 333 312 145 156 192 152

(decided and leaning voters)
Total Female Male 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 45.8% 46.9% 44.7% 43.1% 41.1% 46.8% 52.1%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 35.6% 36.2% 35% 35.2% 33.4% 36.8% 36.7%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 12.5% 12.9% 12.2% 9.8% 18.9% 11.9% 9.4%
Another Party 6% 4% 8.1% 11.8% 6.7% 4.5% 1.7%
Unweighted Frequency 576 317 259 51 90 201 234
Weighted Frequency 576 298 278 129 140 172 136
QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and
Labrador led by Dwight Ball What is your age group?
Progressive Conservative Party of 18 to 34 years of age
Newfoundland and Labrador led by 35 to 49 years of age
Ches Crosbie 50 to 64 years of age
Newfoundland and Labrador New 65 years of age or older
Democratic Party led by Gerry Rogers
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning
towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and
Labrador led by Dwight Ball
Progressive Conservative Party of
Newfoundland and Labrador led by
Ches Crosbie
Newfoundland and Labrador New
Democratic Party led by Gerry Rogers
Another Party
Undecided
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between July 15th,
2018 and July 18th, 2018, among a sample of 645 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of Newfoundland and Labrador.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. In both cases, respondents
were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 6.15%, Females: +/- 5.5%,
18-34 age group: +/- 17.6%, 35-49 age group: +/- 9.95%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.69%, 65+
age group: +/- 6.47%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.