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Investment Office ANRS

Project Profile on the Establishment


of Welding Machine PRODUCING
PLANT

Development Studies
Associates (DSA)

October 2008
Addis Ababa
Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary............................................................................................1
2. Product Description and Application..............................................................1
3. Market Study, Plant Capacity and Production program..............................2
3.1 Market Study...................................................................................................................2
3.1.1 Present Demand and Supply....................................................................................2
3.1.2 Projected Demand....................................................................................................3
3.1.3 Pricing and Distribution...........................................................................................4
3.2 Plant Capacity..................................................................................................................4
3.3 Production Program.........................................................................................................5
4. Raw Materials and Utilities..............................................................................5
4.1 Availability and Source of Raw Materials.......................................................................5
4.2 Annual Requirement and Cost of Raw Materials and Utilities.......................................5
5. Location and Site...............................................................................................6
6. Technology and Engineering............................................................................6
6.1 Production Process...........................................................................................................6
6.2 Machinery and Equipment...............................................................................................7
6.3 Civil Engineering Cost....................................................................................................8
7. Human Resource and Training Requirement.................................................8
7.1 Human Resource..............................................................................................................8
7.2 Training Requirement......................................................................................................9
8. Financial Analysis..............................................................................................9
8.1 Underlying Assumption...................................................................................................9
8.2 Investment......................................................................................................................10
8.3 Production Costs............................................................................................................11
8.4 Financial Evaluation......................................................................................................11
9. Economic and Social Benefit and Justification.............................................12
ANNEXES...............................................................................................................14
1. Executive Summary
This project profile is intended to be established in Amhara Region for the production of 30 tons
of welding machines.

The market study shows the existence of sufficient demand for the product. The present demand
for the product is about 40 tons while the projected demand ranges fro 54 tons in 2001 to 127
tons in 2010.

The initial investment required is estimated to reach about Birr 7.0 million of which foreign and
machinery cost constitute about 56% and million or 71.1 %.,respectively

The project creates employment opportunities for 26 persons.

The project is assessed to earn an internal rate of return (IRR) of about 23.3%, and a net present
value of Birr 1.4 million on net cash flows discounted at 18%.

2. Product Description and Application


Joining metals with the help of electric current is known as electric welding. Welding is the most
common and most essential operation in any workshop, engineering and metal fabrication
factory, big construction projects, etc. By its very nature, welding is accomplished using
automatic electric powered machine. Welding machines come in many forms and sizes. Some
are small and portables others are big ones used for industrial welding.

The arc welding method uses low voltage to generate heavy current that will arc between the
welding electrode and the work-piece. The heat generated in the arcing of the heavy current
metals the electrode which is deposited at the joint. The voltage may range from 20 to 40 volts
and the resulting current may vary from 50 Amperes in sheet metal works to 1000 Amperes in
heavy, automated welding.

AC welding machines use step down transformers to reduce line voltage to the required low
voltage level on the secondary side. The air cooled welding transformer has sheet metal casings
and has lapping that select secondary voltage levels.

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3. Market Study, Plant Capacity and Production program

3.1 Market Study

3.1.1 Present Demand and Supply

Welding machines are crucial to the operations of many metal based industries. Every year
thousands of units are imported to the country. The machines were of different capacities and
sizes. As the economic and social development of the country expands, the import of welding
machines will increase. Though the machines are crucial, no attempt has ever been made to
assemble let alone manufacture them in the country. On the other hand, these are machines that
could be assembled/ manufactured using our current level of technical know- how and
technology. Welding machines, pumps, small electrical and diesel motors, small concrete mixers
and the like are products where we could start the machine building industry. This was how
others had started and moved to more sophisticated machinery and equipment producing
industries.

The market for welding machines is assessed based on the application stated earlier. The demand
assessment is analyzed using the trend of supplies which are composed of only imports. The
sources of data are the yearly published External Trade Statistics by the Customs Authority.
Table 1 shows the yearly supplies of machinery and Apparatus for Soldering, Brazing or Welding
machines from imports (excluding parts) during the period 1990 to 2000 1. For various reasons
import of the product is not consistent. In terms of number, the smallest import is observed in
1997 while the largest is in 1995 followed by 2000.

Using the data given in Table 1, the present demand for welding machines is estimated to be the
average supply of welding machines for the period 1990 to 2000 which is about 1,666 units
(49,033 kg) with CIF value of Birr 2.6 million.

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Years in this Document are in Ethiopian Calendar.

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Table 1
Imports of Machinery and Apparatus for Soldering, Brazing or Welding

Year Unit Quantity (KG) CIF Value in ‘ooo’ Birr

1990 1,286 28,700 1,853


1991 134 22,690 1,511
1992 1,181 69,147 4,258
1993 361 92,398 950
1994 2,556 41,674 648
1995 8,592 39,301 2,132
1996 474 34,256 1,107
1997 61 2,649 519
1998 757 81,924 9,068
1999 225 61,702 2,985
2000 2,696 64,925 3,766
Total 18,323 539,,366 28,797
average 1,666 49,033 2,618
Source:-Customs Authority, 1990-2000.

3.1.2 Projected Demand

As indicated in the above table during the last eleven years the average import of machinery and
apparatus for soldering, brazing or welding, with different capacities and sizes, was about 1,666
units (49,033 kg).

Demand for welding machine is mainly influenced by the economic growth especially by the
growth of the construction sector.

Considering the growth in the economy by an average of 7 % in general and the growth of the
construction sector by 14.9 % in particular, the future demand for welding machine can
conservatively be assumed by taking into account only 10% of the construction sector growth.

In this regard, based on the average import of past years (1,666 units or 49,033 kg) and applying
the growth rate in construction (10%) the projected demand of welding machine for the next ten
years is given in table 2. The projected demand ranges from 1,833 units (53,936 kg) in 2001 to
4,321 units (127,179 kg) in 2010.

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Table 2
DEMAND PROJECTION FOR WELDING MACHINES

Year Unit Projected Demand (kg)


2001 1833 53936
2002 2016 59330
2003 2217 65263
2004 2439 71789
2005 2683 78968
2006 2951 86865
2007 3246 95552
2008 3571 105107
2009 3928 115617
2010 4321 127179

3.1.3 Pricing and Distribution

Although selling prices vary from time to time as a result of fluctuations in supplies, general
market levels currently indicate a selling price of Birr 3,500 per piece of welding machine on the
average.

There are three possible sales and distribution modalities. Producer – wholesaler -retailer-
consumer; producer-retailer-consumer and producer-consumer. The market area or size, the
production capacity and the type of product, among others, dictate the choice of the sales and
distribution channel. In this particular case, it is suggested that producer-retailer – consumer
chain be used.

3.2 Plant Capacity

The plant will be capable of producing 30 tons, which is equivalent to about 1,100 pieces, of
small and medium size welding transformers per annum.
Welding transformers of the following ratings will be manufactured in the plant.

 Small welding transformer ... ........................50 to 135 Amps.


 Medium size welding transformer.................135 to 300 Amps

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3.3 Production Program

The annual production of 30 tons welding transformers is to be achieved in one shift of 8 hours
per day, and 275 working days per annum. To gain experience in processing and marketing the
items, it is recommended to start production at capacity utilization of 80%, 90% and 100% in the
first, second and third year, respectively.

4. Raw Materials and Utilities


4.1 Availability and Source of Raw Materials

The main raw materials are steel sheet, steel profiles, transformers, strip, round-wires and
streamlined wires, insulating materials, etc. These raw materials will be imported.

4.2 Annual Requirement and Cost of Raw Materials and Utilities

As estimated by the Industrial Projects Studies (IPS) in 1990, the annual raw material
requirement for the production of 30 tons of welding machines is presented in Table 3. The
estimated total cost of raw materials at full capacity utilization is Birr 550,000 of which about 75
% is in foreign currency.

The annual utility cost of the plant will be about Birr 219,2300 i.e. electric power (264,800
kwhrs) Birr 145,640.00, fuel oil (9 tons) Birr 72,000.00 and water (600 m3) Birr 1,590.

Table 3
ANNUAL REQUIREMENT OF RAW MATERIALS

Item Quantity (tons)


5. Transformer strip (steel core) 12.00 Lo
Steel sheet 1.00 ca
Steel profiles 0.26
Round wire and stream lined wire (copper) 9.60 tio
Pints 0.60 n
Connectors 3.00
Other components (bolts, nuts, insulators, wheel, 3.75
Screws and meters)
and Site

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The location of the plant should be in towns where small and large metal works plants are
established and to be expanded. In this respect, Bahir Dar is most suitable site.

6. Technology and Engineering


6.1 Production Process

A series of activities are involved in the manufacture of welding machines. The main ones
include: cutting of metal sheets; winding coil; turning, milling, drilling & grinding; metal
working & welding; mechanical and electrical assembly'

The transformer core is produced with steel cutting equipment. The steel cores will be stored
according to their sizes and will be packed in boxes. The coils will then be wound on the cores
using coil winding machine.

In parallel, the machine processing of the mechanical parts, such as turning milling, drilling, or
grinding will be carried out for the metallic parts. The steel sheet covers and support structures
will also be manufactured and painted.

On another line, the manufacturing of plastic parts is done with a high pressure injection molding
machine.

The electrical parts, as well as the mechanical parts, are assembled according to the design.
Finally, the assembled machine is tested and inspected to ensure its proper functioning.

Alternatively the producer can increase the annual production of the project by increasing the
number of certain machineries such as metal shears, electric press, monitor lathes, winder and
milling machines

(The technology and machinery for the envisaged plant could be secured from India.)

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6.2 Machinery and Equipment

The list of machinery and equipment required for the plant is shown in Table 4. The total
estimated cost of the proposed machinery and equipment is about Birr 5,000,000.00, of which
75% is in foreign currency.
Table 4
MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT

Item Quantity
Th Transformer strip shear 1 e
Metal plate shears 1
Profile shear 1
Corner cutting device 1
Exocentric press 2
Saw 1
Plastic injection machine 1
Monitor lathe 1
Milling machine 1
Grinding device 1
Column drill machine 2
Impregnating unit 1
Drying kiln 1
Winder 2
Insulation manufacturing machine 1
Coloring equipment (spacing unit with compressor) 1
promoter has the opportunity to contact a supplier through the following address.

Company Name: Allmax Industry (HK) Limited


Contact Person: Mr. Eddie Wang
Block 17, South Hi-Tech Industrial Park, Shenzhen City,
Street Address:
Guangdong Province, China
City: Shenzhen
Province/State: Guangdong
Country/Region: China
Zip: 518000
Telephone: 86-755-89800740
Fax: 86-755-89800745
Http://www.allmaxwelding.com
Website:
http://allmax.en.alibaba.com

Alternative machinery could be supplied from India, Italy or Germany.

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6.3 Civil Engineering Cost

A total area of about 2,000m2 will be required for the plant. Of which 500m 2 will be required for
storage, fabrication and assembly of the welding machines. An additional area of 100 m 2 for
office building will also be required. The total construction cost will be 1,200,000 Birr. The
extra space will be used for loading and unloading and for further expansion purposes.

7. Human Resource and Training Requirement

7.1 Human Resource

With the plant operating a single shift of 8 hours per days, the staffs required is about 26 with
annual salary of Birr as presented on Table 5.
Table 5
HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENT

Numb Monthly Salary


7.2 I/N Manpower
er per head
Annual Salary Tra
1 Manger 1 4,500 54,000 ini
2 Typist 1 800 9,600 ng
3 Accountant 1 800 9,600
4 Store Keeper 1 750 9,000
5 Engineer 1 3,500 42,000
6 Sin Mechanic 1 3,000 36,000
7 “ Machinist 1 3,000 36,000
Machinist 1 1,200 14,400
8 Mechanics 3 1,200 43,200
9 Electricians 1 1,200 14,400
10 Helpers 10 500 60,000
11 Guards 3 400 144,400
12 Cleaner 1 400 4,800
Sub total 26 477,400
Benefits (20%) 95,480
Total 572,880
Requirement

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The technical employees need to have experience and skill. In addition a one month's on-the-job
training will be sufficient to familiarize the plant personnel on the techniques of manufacturing
the welding machine.

8. Financial Analysis
8.1 Underlying Assumption

The financial analysis of welding machine producing plant is based on the data provided in the
preceding sections and the following assumptions.

A. Construction and Finance

Construction period 2 years


Source of finance 40% equity and 60% loan
Tax holidays 2 years
Bank interest rate 12%
Discount for cash flow 18%
Value of land Based on lease rate of ANRS
Spare Parts, Repair & Maintenance 3% of fixed investment

B. Depreciation

Building 5%
Machinery and equipment 10%
Office furniture 10%
Vehicles 20%
Pre-production (amortization) 20%

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C. Working Capital (Minimum Days of Coverage)
Raw Material-Local 30 days
Raw Material-Foreign 120 days
Factory Supplies in Stock 30 days
Spare Parts in Stock and Maintenance 30 days
Work in Progress 10 days
Finished Products 15 days
Accounts Receivable 30 days
Cash in Hand 30 days

8.2 Investment
The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 7.0 million
as shown in table 6 below. The Owner shall contribute 40% of the finance in the form of equity
while the remaining 60% is to be financed by bank loan.
The foreign component of the project accounts for Birr 4.1 million or 58.7% of the total
investment cost.
Table 6: Total initial investment

LC FC Total
Land
6,000 6,000
Building
1,200,000 1,200,000
Office equipment
15,000 15,000
Vehicles
0 0
machinery & equipment
1,250,000 3,750,000 5,000,000
Total Fixed Investment
2,471,000 3,750,000 6,221,000
Pre production
311,050 311,050
Total Initial Investment
2,782,050 3,750,000 6,532,050
Working capital
300,229 180,000 480,229
Total 3,082,279 3,930,000 7,012,279
*Pre-production capital expenditure includes - all expenses for pre-investment studies,
consultancy fee during construction and expenses for company‘s establishment, project
administration expenses, commission expenses, preproduction marketing and interest expenses
during construction.

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8.3 Production Costs

The total production cost at full capacity operation is estimated at Birr 2.6 million. Raw materials
account for 21.3%. See Table 7.

Table 7
Total Production Cost at full Capacity
Items Cost
1. Raw materials 550,000
2. Utilities 219,230
3. Wages and Salaries 572,880
4. Spares and Maintenance 186,630
Factory costs 1,528,740
5. Depreciation 623,710
6. Financial costs
420,737
Total Production Cost 2,573,187

8.4 Financial Evaluation


I. Profitability
According to the projected income statement, the project will generate profit beginning from first
year of operation. An important ratio such as net profit to equity (Return on equity) in the first
year operation is 6% and gradually grows to 46% in the tenth year. The net profit and interests on
total investment (return on total investment) is 19.42% in the first year and gradually rising. The
income statement and other profitability indicators show that the project is viable.

II. Breakeven Analysis


The breakeven point of the project is estimated by using income statement projection.
Accordingly the project will breakeven at 32.8% of capacity utilization.

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III. Payback Period
Investment cost and income statement projection are used in estimating the project payback
period. The project wills payback fully the initial investment less working capital in four year
time.

IV. Simple Rate of Return


It is a ratio of net profit and interest to the total capital invested for a single year at full capacity
operation. Thus the SRR of the project is calculated to be 19.0%

V. Internal Rate of Return and Net Present Value


Based on the projected cash flow statement, the calculated IRR of the project is 23.3% and the
net present value (NPV) is Birr 1.4 million.

VI. Sensitivity Analysis


The financial viability of the processing plant will not be much affected if prices of raw materials
are increased by 10%.

9. Economic and Social Benefit and Justification


Based on the foregoing presentation and analysis, we can learn that the proposed project
possesses wide range of benefits that complement the financial feasibility obtained earlier. In
general the envisaged project promotes the socio-economic goals and objectives stated in the
strategic plan of the Amhara National Regional State. These benefits are listed as follows:

A. Profit Generation

The project is found to be financially viable and earns on average a profit of birr 1.1 million per
year and birr 11.0 million within the project life. Such result induces the project promoters to
reinvest the profit which, therefore, increases the investment magnitude in the region.

B. Tax Revenue

In the project life under consideration, the region will collect about birr 3.60 million from
corporate tax payment alone (i.e. excluding income tax, sales tax and VAT). Such result creates
additional fund for the regional government that will be used in expanding social and other basic
services in the region

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C. Import Substitution and Foreign Exchange Saving

The commencement of this project relieves a portion of the import burden. That is, based on the
projected figure we learn that in the project life an estimated amount of US Dollar 4.1 million
will be saved as a result of the proposed project. This will create room for the saved hard
currency to be allocated to other vital and strategic sectors.

D. Employment and Income Generation

The proposed project is expected to create employment opportunity to 26 professionals as well as


support staff. Consequently the project creates income of birr 573 thousand per year. This would
be one of the commendable accomplishments of the project.

E. Pro Environment Project

The proposed production process is environment friendly.

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ANNEXES

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Annex 1: Total Net Working Capital Requirements (in Birr)
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION
Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 4

Capacity Utilization (%) 0.00 0.00 80% 90% 100% 100%

1. Total Inventory 0.00 0.00 471053.85 529935.58 588817.31 588817.31

Raw Materials in Stock- Total 0.00 0.00 156000.00 175500.00 195000.00 195000.00

Raw Material-Local 0.00 0.00 12000.00 13500.00 15000.00 15000.00

Raw Material-Foreign 0.00 0.00 144000.00 162000.00 180000.00 180000.00

Factory Supplies in Stock 0.00 0.00 1878.50 2113.31 2348.13 2348.13

Spare Parts in Stock and Maintenance 0.00 0.00 16287.71 18323.67 20359.64 20359.64

Work in Progress 0.00 0.00 46962.55 52832.86 58703.18 58703.18

Finished Products 0.00 0.00 93925.09 105665.73 117406.36 117406.36

2. Accounts Receivable 0.00 0.00 336000.00 378000.00 420000.00 420000.00

3. Cash in Hand 0.00 0.00 69129.60 77770.80 86412.00 86412.00

CURRENT ASSETS 0.00 0.00 720183.45 810206.38 900229.31 900229.31

4. Current Liabilities 0.00 0.00 336000.00 378000.00 420000.00 420000.00

Accounts Payable 0.00 0.00 336000.00 378000.00 420000.00 420000.00

TOTAL NET WORKING CAPITAL REQUIRMENTS 0.00 0.00 384183.45 432206.38 480229.31 480229.31

INCREASE IN NET WORKING CAPITAL 0.00 0.00 384183.45 48022.93 48022.93 0.00

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Annex 1: Total Net Working Capital Requirements (in Birr) (continued)
PRODUCTION
5 6 7 8 9 10

Capacity Utilization (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

1. Total Inventory 588817.31 588817.31 588817.31 588817.31 588817.31 588817.31

Raw Materials in Stock-Total 195000.00 195000.00 195000.00 195000.00 195000.00 195000.00

Raw Material-Local 15000.00 15000.00 15000.00 15000.00 15000.00 15000.00

Raw Material-Foreign 180000.00 180000.00 180000.00 180000.00 180000.00 180000.00

Factory Supplies in Stock 2348.13 2348.13 2348.13 2348.13 2348.13 2348.13

Spare Parts in Stock and Maintenance 20359.64 20359.64 20359.64 20359.64 20359.64 20359.64

Work in Progress 58703.18 58703.18 58703.18 58703.18 58703.18 58703.18

Finished Products 117406.36 117406.36 117406.36 117406.36 117406.36 117406.36

2. Accounts Receivable 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00

3. Cash in Hand 86412.00 86412.00 86412.00 86412.00 86412.00 86412.00

CURRENT ASSETS 900229.31 900229.31 900229.31 900229.31 900229.31 900229.31

4. Current Liabilities 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00

Accounts Payable 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00

TOTAL NET WORKING CAPITAL REQUIRMENTS 480229.31 480229.31 480229.31 480229.31 480229.31 480229.31

INCREASE IN NET WORKING CAPITAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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Annex 2: Cash Flow Statement (in Birr)
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION
Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 4
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 3266025.00 3746254.31 3416000.00 3507000.00 3892000.00 3850000.00
1. Inflow Funds 3266025.00 3746254.31 336000.00 42000.00 42000.00 0.00
Total Equity 1306410.00 1498501.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Long Term Loan 1959615.00 2247752.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Short Term Finances 0.00 0.00 336000.00 42000.00 42000.00 0.00
2. Inflow Operation 0.00 0.00 3080000.00 3465000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00
Sales Revenue 0.00 0.00 3080000.00 3465000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00
Interest on Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3. Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 3266025.00 3266025.00 3007436.28 2588466.02 2640682.12 2904813.67
4. Increase In Fixed Assets 3266025.00 3266025.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fixed Investments 3110500.00 3110500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pre-production Expenditures 155525.00 155525.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5. Increase in Current Assets 0.00 0.00 720183.45 90022.93 90022.93 0.00
6. Operating Costs 0.00 0.00 1155967.60 1292331.05 1428694.50 1428694.50
7. Corporate Tax Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 438301.83
8. Interest Paid 0.00 0.00 1131285.23 504884.11 420736.76 336589.41
9. Loan Repayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 701227.93 701227.93 701227.93
10. Dividends Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Surplus(Deficit) 0.00 480229.31 408563.72 918533.98 1251317.88 945186.33
Cumulative Cash Balance 0.00 480229.31 888793.03 1807327.01 3058644.89 4003831.22

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Annex 2: Cash Flow Statement (in Birr): Continued
PRODUCTION
5 6 7 8 9 10
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00
1. Inflow Funds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Long Term Loan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Short Term Finances 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Inflow Operation 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00
Sales Revenue 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00
Interest on Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3. Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 2845910.52 2805670.37 2746767.23 1986636.15 1986636.15 1986636.15
4. Increase In Fixed Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fixed Investments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pre-production Expenditures 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5. Increase in Current Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6. Operating Costs 1428694.50 1428694.50 1428694.50 1428694.50 1428694.50 1428694.50
7. Corporate Tax Paid 463546.03 507453.24 532697.44 557941.65 557941.65 557941.65
8. Interest Paid 252442.06 168294.70 84147.35 0.00 0.00 0.00
9. Loan Repayments 701227.93 701227.93 701227.93 0.00 0.00 0.00
10. Dividends Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Surplus(Deficit) 1004089.48 1044329.63 1103232.77 1863363.85 1863363.85 1863363.85
Cumulative Cash Balance 5007920.70 6052250.33 7155483.10 9018846.95 10882210.80 12745574.65

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Annex 3: DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW-TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTED
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION
Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 4
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 0.00 0.00 3080000.00 3465000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00

1. Inflow Operation 0.00 0.00 3080000.00 3465000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00

Sales Revenue 0.00 0.00 3080000.00 3465000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00

Interest on Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2. Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 3266025.00 3266025.00 1540151.05 1340353.98 1476717.43 1866996.33

3. Increase in Fixed Assets 3266025.00 3266025.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fixed Investments 3110500.00 3110500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pre-production Expenditures 155525.00 155525.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4. Increase in Net Working Capital 0.00 0.00 384183.45 48022.93 48022.93 0.00

5. Operating Costs 0.00 0.00 1155967.60 1292331.05 1428694.50 1428694.50

6. Corporate Tax Paid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 438301.83

NET CASH FLOW -3266025.00 -3266025.00 1539848.95 2124646.02 2373282.57 1983003.67

CUMMULATIVE NET CASH FLOW -3266025.00 -6532050.00 -4992201.05 -2867555.03 -494272.46 1488731.21

Net Present Value (at 18%) -3266025.00 -2767817.80 1105895.54 1293125.16 1224112.75 866789.18

Cumulative Net present Value -3266025.00 -6033842.80 -4927947.25 -3634822.09 -2410709.35 -1543920.17

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Annex 3: DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW-TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTED (Continued)
PRODUCTION
5 6 7 8 9 10
TOTAL CASH INFLOW 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00

1. Inflow Operation 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00

Sales Revenue 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00

Interest on Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2. Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW 1892240.53 1936147.74 1961391.94 1986636.15 1986636.15 1986636.15

3. Increase in Fixed Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fixed Investments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pre-production Expenditures 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4. Increase in Net Working Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5. Operating Costs 1428694.50 1428694.50 1428694.50 1428694.50 1428694.50 1428694.50

6. Corporate Tax Paid 463546.03 507453.24 532697.44 557941.65 557941.65 557941.65

NET CASH FLOW 1957759.47 1913852.26 1888608.06 1863363.85 1863363.85 1863363.85

CUMMULATIVE NET CASH FLOW 3446490.68 5360342.94 7248951.00 9112314.85 10975678.70 12839042.55

Net Present Value (at 18%) 725215.85 600806.13 502441.82 420106.69 356022.62 301714.09

Cumulative Net present Value -818704.31 -217898.18 284543.64 704650.33 1060672.95 1362387.04

Net Present Value (at 18%) 1,362,387.04

Internal Rate of Return 23.3%

6
Annex 4: NET INCOME STATEMENT ( in Birr)
PRODUCTION
1 2 3 4 5
Capacity Utilization (%) 80% 90% 100% 100% 100%

1. Total Income 3080000.00 3465000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00


Sales Revenue 3080000.00 3465000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00
Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Less Variable Cost 907586.00 1021034.25 1134482.50 1134482.50 1134482.50
VARIABLE MARGIN 2172414.00 2443965.75 2715517.50 2715517.50 2715517.50
(In % of Total Income) 70.53 70.53 70.53 70.53 70.53
3. Less Fixed Costs 872091.60 895006.80 917922.00 917922.00 917922.00
OPERATIONAL MARGIN 1300322.40 1548958.95 1797595.50 1797595.50 1797595.50
(In % of Total Income) 42 45 47 47 47
4. Less Cost of Finance 1131285.23 504884.11 420736.76 336589.41 252442.06
5. GROSS PROFIT 169037.17 1044074.84 1376858.74 1461006.09 1545153.44
6. Income (Corporate) Tax 0.00 0.00 0.00 438301.83 463546.03
7. NET PROFIT 169037.17 1044074.84 1376858.74 1022704.27 1081607.41
RATIOS (%)
Gross Profit/Sales 5% 30% 36% 38% 40%
Net Profit After Tax/Sales 5% 30% 36% 27% 28%
Return on Investment 19% 22% 26% 19% 19%
Return on Equity 6% 37% 49% 36% 39%

7
Annex 4: NET INCOME STATEMENT (in Birr):Continued
PRODUCTION
6 7 8 9 10
Capacity Utilization (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

1. Total Income 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00


Sales Revenue 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00 3850000.00
Other Income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Less Variable Cost 1134482.50 1134482.50 1134482.50 1134482.50 1134482.50
VARIABLE MARGIN 2715517.50 2715517.50 2715517.50 2715517.50 2715517.50
(In % of Total Income) 71 71 71 71 71
3. Less Fixed Costs 855712.00 855712.00 855712.00 855712.00 855712.00
OPERATIONAL MARGIN 1859805.50 1859805.50 1859805.50 1859805.50 1859805.50
(In % of Total Income) 48 48 48 48 48
4. Less Cost of Finance 168294.70 84147.35 0.00 0.00 0.00
5. GROSS PROFIT 1691510.80 1775658.15 1859805.50 1859805.50 1859805.50
6. Income (Corporate) Tax 507453.24 532697.44 557941.65 557941.65 557941.65
7. NET PROFIT 1184057.56 1242960.70 1301863.85 1301863.85 1301863.85
RATIOS (%)
Gross Profit/Sales 44% 46% 48% 48% 48%
Net Profit After Tax/Sales 31% 32% 34% 34% 34%
Return on Investment 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
Return on Equity 42% 44% 46% 46% 46%

8
Annex 5: Projected Balance Sheet (in Birr)
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION
Year 1 Year 2 1 2 3 4
TOTAL ASSETS 3266025.00 7012279.31 7517316.48 7902163.39 8619794.20 8941270.53
1. Total Current Assets 0.00 480229.31 1608976.48 2617533.39 3958874.20 4904060.53
Inventory on Materials and Supplies 0.00 0.00 174166.21 195936.99 217707.76 217707.76
Work in Progress 0.00 0.00 46962.55 52832.86 58703.18 58703.18
Finished Products in Stock 0.00 0.00 93925.09 105665.73 117406.36 117406.36
Accounts Receivable 0.00 0.00 336000.00 378000.00 420000.00 420000.00
Cash in Hand 0.00 0.00 69129.60 77770.80 86412.00 86412.00
Cash Surplus, Finance Available 0.00 480229.31 888793.03 1807327.01 3058644.89 4003831.22
Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Total Fixed Assets, Net of Depreciation 3266025.00 6532050.00 5908340.00 5284630.00 4660920.00 4037210.00
Fixed Investment 0.00 3110500.00 6221000.00 6221000.00 6221000.00 6221000.00
Construction in Progress 3110500.00 3110500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pre-Production Expenditure 155525.00 311050.00 311050.00 311050.00 311050.00 311050.00
Less Accumulated Depreciation 0.00 0.00 623710.00 1247420.00 1871130.00 2494840.00
3. Accumulated Losses Brought Forward 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4. Loss in Current Year 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL LIABILITIES 3266025.00 7012279.31 7517316.48 7902163.39 8619794.20 8941270.53
5. Total Current Liabilities 0.00 0.00 336000.00 378000.00 420000.00 420000.00
Accounts Payable 0.00 0.00 336000.00 378000.00 420000.00 420000.00
Bank Overdraft 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6. Total Long-term Debt 1959615.00 4207367.59 4207367.59 3506139.65 2804911.72 2103683.79
Loan A 1959615.00 4207367.59 4207367.59 3506139.65 2804911.72 2103683.79
Loan B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7. Total Equity Capital 1306410.00 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72
Ordinary Capital 1306410.00 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72
Preference Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Subsidies 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
8. Reserves, Retained Profits Brought Forward 0.00 0.00 0.00 169037.17 1213112.01 2589970.75
9. Net Profit After Tax 0.00 0.00 169037.17 1044074.84 1376858.74 1022704.27
Dividends Payable 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Retained Profits 0.00 0.00 169037.17 1044074.84 1376858.74 1022704.27

9
Annex 5: Projected Balance Sheet (in Birr): Continued
PRODUCTION
5 6 7 8 9 10
TOTAL ASSETS 9321650.01 9804479.64 10346212.41 11648076.26 12949940.11 14251803.96
1. Total Current Assets 5908150.01 6952479.64 8055712.41 9919076.26 11782440.11 13645803.96
Inventory on Materials and Supplies 217707.76 217707.76 217707.76 217707.76 217707.76 217707.76
Work in Progress 58703.18 58703.18 58703.18 58703.18 58703.18 58703.18
Finished Products in Stock 117406.36 117406.36 117406.36 117406.36 117406.36 117406.36
Accounts Receivable 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00
Cash in Hand 86412.00 86412.00 86412.00 86412.00 86412.00 86412.00
Cash Surplus, Finance Available 5007920.70 6052250.33 7155483.10 9018846.95 10882210.80 12745574.65
Securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2. Total Fixed Assets, Net of Depreciation 3413500.00 2852000.00 2290500.00 1729000.00 1167500.00 606000.00
Fixed Investment 6221000.00 6221000.00 6221000.00 6221000.00 6221000.00 6221000.00
Construction in Progress 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pre-Production Expenditure 311050.00 311050.00 311050.00 311050.00 311050.00 311050.00
Less Accumulated Depreciation 3118550.00 3680050.00 4241550.00 4803050.00 5364550.00 5926050.00
3. Accumulated Losses Brought Forward 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4. Loss in Current Year 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TOTAL LIABILITIES 9321650.01 9804479.64 10346212.41 11648076.26 12949940.11 14251803.96
5. Total Current Liabilities 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00
Accounts Payable 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00 420000.00
Bank Overdraft 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
6. Total Long-term Debt 1402455.86 701227.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loan A 1402455.86 701227.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loan B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7. Total Equity Capital 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72
Ordinary Capital 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72 2804911.72
Preference Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Subsidies 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
8. Reserves, Retained Profits Brought Forward 3612675.02 4694282.43 5878339.99 7121300.69 8423164.54 9725028.39
9. Net Profit After Tax 1081607.41 1184057.56 1242960.70 1301863.85 1301863.85 1301863.85
Dividends Payable 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Retained Profits 1081607.41 1184057.56 1242960.70 1301863.85 1301863.85 1301863.85

10