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THE TARRANCE GROUP

To: Interested Parties

From: Ed Goeas
Brian Nienaber

Re: Key findings from a statewide survey of likely Republican primary run-off voters in
Oklahoma CD 1

Ø This survey finds Kevin Hern with a 16-point lead (50%-34%) over Tim Harris in the
upcoming Republican primary run-off election. In addition, Hern holds a 9-point lead (29%-
20%) among voters who have made a definite choice on the ballot.

Ø Hern enjoys majority support from several key voting blocs for this election, including
seniors, extremely and very conservative voters, weekly church attendees, Evangelicals, and
voters who self-identify as being extremely likely to vote.

Ø On name identifications, Hern has a majority favorable image (55%), an increase of 13-
points in his favorable image since an earlier poll in July. In a key indicator of Hern’s
success at making a positive impression with voters, Hern is winning by 15-points (53%-
38%) among voters who have an impression of both Hern and Harris.

Ø In a further sign of the positive image Hern has with GOP run-off voters, fully 61% of voters
who have an impression of Hern think of him as a conservative. In contrast, just 43% of
voters with an impression of Harris think of him as a conservative.

Ø This survey also finds that two-thirds (67%) of GOP run-off voters have seen, read, or heard
something about the Hern campaign. Among those voters aware of the campaign, a majority
(51%) said this contact made them more likely to vote for Hern. In contrast, just 42% of
GOP run-off voters were aware of the Harris campaign and just 34% of these aware voters
indicated this contact made them more likely to vote for Harris.

Ø A plurality (49%) of Republican run-off voters think that Kevin Hern will be the strongest
supporter for President Trump and his agenda. Just 13% of voters select Tim Harris on this
question.

Ø As the campaign enters this final stretch, Kevin Hern is well positioned to win this GOP
primary run-off election. He has a double-digit lead on the ballot. This impressive lead is
driven by his strongly favorable image with voters that includes being well defined as a
conservative who will be a strong ally for President Trump.

Methodology
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present these key findings from a survey of likely Republican primary run-off
voters in Oklahoma CD 1. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample of
N=301 registered likely Republican primary run-off voters. Responses to this survey were gathered August 7-9,
2018. The confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is ±5.8% in 19 of 20 cases.