You are on page 1of 7

BUSINESS ANALYTICS ASSIGNMENT

ON
Time series and Forecasting of Sales
For Indiabulls Ventures

Submitted By:
Pratik Prasad
PRN- 17021141126
Section- A
Indiabulls Ventures

Indiabulls Ventures Limited is one of India’s leading capital market


companies providing securities, commodities and currency broking services.
Commodities services are being provided through Indiabulls Commodities
Ltd. A subsidiary of Indiabullls Ventures Limited. It is listed on the National
Stock Exchange, Bombay Stock Exchange and Luxembourg Stock
Exchange. It was the first Company to be assigned the BQ-1 grading by
CRISIL, which is the highest broker quality grading, and is a reflection of the
financial stability, strong fundamentals, and stringent risk management
controls that the Company possesses. Brickworks Ratings has also assigned
a strong credit rating of BWR A+ and BWR A1+ for its fund and non-fund
based facilities.

Indiabulls Group is one of the country's leading business houses with


interests in housing finance, real estate, securities, construction equipment
leasing and facilities sector. The group had combined revenues of Rs.
15,279.4 Cr. and PAT of 3,355.5 Cr. for the year ended 31st March 2017.
Various companies of Indiabulls Group are listed on Luxemburg Stock
Exchange, Bombay Stock Exchange, and the National Stock Exchange.
The combined market capitalization of these companies as on 30th June
2017 was Rs. 60,986.3 Cr.
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
The study is undertaken for the academic purpose as a part of Business
Analytics course. . Also, by using Time Series Analysis, we are predicting
the Net Sales for the 1st and 2nd quarter of FY 2017-18.

Data Analysis
To start with, the quarterly data of Net Sales is taken from
www.moneycontrol.com for the period of Q1 FY 2008 ended December
2007 to Q4 FY 2017 ended September 2017. After this, we remove the
seasonal trend (if any) from the data by calculating the 4th quarter moving
average and placing it corresponding to the 3rd quarter of every year. This
is because of the fact that the centered moving average for any year falls
on the 3rd quarter results. Centered Moving Average is calculated by taking
the average of 4QMA of the current quarter and the next quarter. Then we
calculate the percentage of Net Sales obtained from CMA to the actual Net
Sales.

The collected data is representing the trend of Net Sales for the past 10
years is shown in the table and graph below:
year Quarter Sales 4QMA CMA %A & CMA
2008 I 8,205.23
2008 II 9,238.48
2008 III 10,576.49 11,431 12,374 85.47020323
2008 IV 17,703.32 13,318 14,213 124.5582222
2009 I 15,754.00 15,108 16,423 95.92545896
2009 II 16,397.00 17,739 18,781 87.30515226
2009 III 21,100.22 19,824 21,477 98.24639006
2009 IV 26,044.25 23,130 24,462 106.4676134
2010 I 28,977.78 25,794 26,755 108.3092106
2010 II 27,055.57 27,715 28,420 95.19898716
2010 III 28,782.00 29,125 29,914 96.21647001
2010 IV 31,685.20 30,702 31,517 100.5334609
2011 I 35,287.06 32,332 33,259 106.0989823
2011 II 33,572.46 34,186 35,882 93.56235014
2011 III 36,197.54 37,579 39,532 91.56531875
2011 IV 45,260.25 41,485 42,703 105.9873848
2012 I 50,907.90 43,922 44,823 113.5754156
2012 II 43,323.61 45,724 45,827 94.53665094
2012 III 43,402.88 45,931 46,568 93.20385014
2012 IV 46,089.50 47,204 47,637 96.75139599
2013 I 56,001.64 48,070 49,755 112.5557147
2013 II 46,784.66 51,440 53,663 87.18244522
2013 III 56,882.28 55,886 57,051 99.70463161
2013 IV 63,876.83 58,215 60,452 105.6644991
2014 I 65,317.14 62,690 63,150 103.4317176
2014 II 64,682.83 63,610 64,372 100.4823911
2014 III 60,564.20 65,134 65,417 92.58214108
2014 IV 69,973.26 65,699 65,303 107.1524959
2015 I 67,576.04 64,906 65,026 103.9217316
2015 II 61,510.18 65,146 65,223 94.30716452
2015 III 61,524.03 65,301 66,792 92.11243666
2015 IV 70,592.09 68,284 68,977 102.3410641
2016 I 79,509.89 69,671 70,218 113.2336008
2016 II 67,056.10 70,765 70,382 95.27446647
2016 III 65,900.42 69,999 69,713 94.53125134
2016 IV 67,531.30 69,426 68,356 98.79365042
2017 I 77,217.19 67,286 67,818 113.8602511
2017 II 58,493.37 68,349 69,178 84.55542144
2017 III 70,155.96 70,006
2017 IV 74,156.07
Sales
100,000.00

80,000.00

60,000.00
Sales
40,000.00

20,000.00

0.00

Sales are increasing overtime with some fluctuations.

Calculation Of Modified Mean


Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008 85.4702 124.5582
2009 95.92546 87.30515 98.24639 106.4676
2010 108.3092 95.19899 96.21647 100.5335
2011 106.099 93.56235 91.56532 105.9874
2012 113.5754 94.53665 93.20385 96.7514
2013 112.5557 87.18245 99.70463 105.6645
2014 103.4317 100.4824 92.58214 107.1525
2015 103.9217 94.30716 92.11244 102.3411
2016 113.2336 95.27447 94.53125 98.79365
2017 113.8603 84.55542

Mean 108.7323 92.48103 94.06541 103.8486


Total 399.1274
AC 1.002186269

Quarterly AC
1.0897 0.9268 0.9427 1.0407
Now we calculate the Average Net Sales as the product of quarterly AC and the Net
Sales. This is then approximated to a time series for predicting the Net Sales for next
quarter:

Net Sales for next quarter:

AS(Y)
100000
80000 y = 1743.3x + 11322
60000
AS(Y)
40000
Linear (AS(Y))
20000
0
-39 -35 -31 -27 -23 -19 -15 -11 -7 -3 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37

By approximating the values to a trend line, we get the equation for


Average Net Sales as under:
Average Net Sales= 1743x+11322
Now, for Q1&Q2 2018, we can predict the Average Net Sales with X=41
as:
 Average Net Sales= 1743*41+11322= 82785
 Average Net Sales = 1743*43+11322= 86271

Predicted Net Sales = Average Net Sales/AC


Similarly, we can calculate Net Sales for future quarters also.
Expected Sales for Next Two
Quarters
Year Quarter Sales(est.)_
2018 I 75970.45
2018 II 93084.81