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Probability and Statistics – Prelims Project

BS ECE 4C

FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF COUNTING

MULTIPLICATION

- If there are m ways to do one thing, and n ways to do another, then there are m x n ways
of doing both

Examples:

How many 2 digits numbers can be formed from the numbers (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

a) If repetition is allowed

5 x 6 = 30

1-5 0-5

b) No repetition
5 x 5 = 25

1-5 0-5

c) Odd number with repetition


5 x 3 = 15

1-5 1,3,5

d) Odd number without repetition


4 x 3 = 12

1-5 1,,3,5

e) Even without repetition


4 x 3 = 12

1-5 0,2,4

f) Even without repetition


5 x “0” = 5
1-5 0,2,4 + = 13
4 x 2 = 8
1-5 2,4
ADDITION

- If a task can be done either in one of n1 ways or in one of n2 ways, where none of the set
of n1 ways is the same as any of the set of n2 ways, then there are n1 + n2 ways to do the
task.

Examples:

How many 3 digit odd numbers greater than 421 can be formed from the numbers
(0,1,2,3,4,5,7,8) if repetition is not allowed?

a) 3 digit number with repetition -> 6 x 7 x 7 = 294


b) 3 digit number without repetition > 6 x 6 x 5 = 180
c) 3 digit odd numbers without repetition -> 5 x 5 x 3 = 75
d) 3 digit odd numbers with repetition -> 6 x 7 x 3 = 126

Greater than 421 OR

“42” x 2 = 2 “42” x 2 = 2

“4” x 3 x “1” = 3 “4” x “” x 3 = 3

“4” x 2 x 2 = 4 “4” x “2” x 2 = 4

3+4=7 3+4=7

3 x 5 x “1” = 15 “8” x 5 x 3= 15

2 x 5 x 2 = 20 2 x 5 x 5= 20

15 + 20 = 35 20 + 15 = 35

2 + 7 + 35 = 44 Answer 2 + 7 + 35 = 44 Answer

Less than 421

“42” x 1 = 1

“4” x “0” x 3 = 3

“4” x “1” x 2 = 2

“2” x 5 x 3 = 15

“1” x 5 x 2 = 10

1 + 3 + 2 + 15 + 10 = 31 Answer

3 digit odd numbers without repetition 5 x 5 x 3 = 75


PERMUTATION

- A permutation of a set of objects is an ordering of those objects. Permutations reflect


selections for which an ordering is important.

Example:

Permutation with Repetition:

1. How many 2 digit no. can be formed from the numbers (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) if:

a) Repetition is allowed:

5 x 6 = 30

b) Odd numbers with repetition:

5 x 3 = 15

c) Even numbers with repetition:

5 x 3 = 15

2. How many 3 digit no. can be formed from the numbers (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9) if:

a) Repetition is allowed:

7 x 8 x 8 = 448

b) Odd numbers with repetition:

7 x 8 x 4 = 224

c) Even numbers with repetition:

7 x 8 x 4 = 224

3. How many 4 digit no. can be formed from the numbers (0, 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9) if:

a) Repetition is allowed:

7 x 8 x 8 x 8 = 3584

b) Odd numbers with repetition:

7 x 8 x 8 x 4 = 1792

c) Even numbers with repetition:

7 x 8 x 8 x 4 = 1792
4. Given the numbers (1, 2, 3,) find:

a) Number of 2 digit no. will be formed:

3 x 3 =9

b) Number 3 digit no. will be formed:

3 x 3 x 3 = 27

Permutation without Repetition

The number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time is given by the

𝑑 𝑛!
FORMULA: 𝑛𝑃𝑟 = (𝑛−𝑟)! ;r<n

𝑑
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 𝑛! ;r=n

where n is the number of objects

r is the number of positions

EXAMPLES:

1. How many 2-digit numbers can be formed from the numbers (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)?

a) No repetition of digits

5 x 5______ = 25
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)

Zero cannot be used for the 1st digit. 1 number was already used for
the 1st digit hence you can only use the remaining 5 numbers for the
2nd digit

b) Odd numbers without repetition

4 x 3 __ = 12
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5) (1, 3, 5)

c) Even numbers without repetition

5 x “0” _ = 5
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5) (0, 2, 4)
; objects enclosed in “ “ are fixed and is equal to 1
4 x 2__ = 8
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5) (2, 4)

5+8 = 13

2. How many 3-digit odd numbers greater than 421 can be formed from the numbers (0, 1,
2, 4, 5, 7, 8) if repetition is not allowed?

a) 3-digit numbers without repetition

__6__ x ____ 6____ __ x ______5_______ = 180


(1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8) (0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8) (0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8)

b) 3-digit odd numbers without repetition


__5__ x ____ 5____ __ x ___3__= 75
(1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8) (0, 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8) (1, 5, 7)

c) 3-digit odd numbers greater than 421 without repetition

“42” x 2_ = 2
(5, 7)

“4” x _ 3 __ x __”1”__ = 3 OR “4” x _“8”__ x ___3___ = 3


(5, 7, 8) (1, 5, 7) (5, 7, 8) (1, 5, 7)
+ +
“4” x _ 2 __ x _2_ = 4 “4” x _ 2 __ x _2_ = 4
(5, 7, 8) (5, 7) _____ (5, 7, 8) (5, 7) ______
7 7

___3__ x 5 _ x _”1”__ = 15 OR _”8”__ x _5 _ x __3__ = 15


(5, 7, 8) (1, 5, 7) (5, 7, 8) (1, 5, 7)
+ +
___2__ x 5 _ x __2__ = 20 _2__ x _5 _ x __2__ = 20
(5, 7, 8) (5, 7) _____ (5, 7) (1, 5, 7) ______
35 35

2+7+35 = 44
d) 3-digit odd numbers less than or equal to 421 without repetition

“42” 1 = 1

“4” x _”0”_ x __3___ = 3


(0, 1) (1, 5, 7)
+
“4” x _”1”_ x _2__ = 2
(5, 7) _____
5

_“2”_ x _5_ x __3___ = 15


(1, 2) (1, 5, 7)
+
“1” x _5_ x __2___ = 10
( 5, 7) ______
25

1+25+5 = 31

3. There are 9 runners in a race. In how many ways can 9 runners finish the race?

n=9

r=9

𝑛! 9! 9𝑥8𝑥7𝑥6𝑥5𝑥4𝑥3𝑥2𝑥1
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = = =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! (9 − 9)! 1

= 362,880 ways

4. Automobile license plates consist of a sequence of three letters followed by three digits.
Using the Standard English alphabet, how many license plates are there if no letters and
no digits are repeated?

n1 = 26 n2 = 10

r1 = 3 r2 = 3

26! 10!
𝑛1𝑃𝑟1 𝑥 𝑛2𝑃𝑟2 = 26𝑃3 𝑥 10𝑃3 = 𝑥
(26 − 3)! (10 − 3)!

= 15,600 × 720

= 11,232,000 license plates


Circular Permutation

Permutation in a circle is called circular permutation.

ABC BCA

ACB CAB

BAC CBA

Pn = (n-1)!

The number is (n-1)! instead of the usual factorial n! since all cyclic permutations of objects are
equivalent because the circle can be rotated.

Example:

1. At a dinner party, 9 men and 9 women sit at a round table. In how many ways can they
sit if:
a. There are no restrictions

Solution:

(18-1)! = 17!

b. Men and women alternate


Solution:
(9-1)! x 9! = 8! x 9!

c. Gabriel and Charm must sit together

Solution:

GC and other 16 = 2! x 16!

d. George, Charm, and Gabriel must sit together

Solution:

GCG and other 15 = 3! x 15!

e. Neither Gabriel nor Charm can sit next to George

Solution:

Seat 2 of the other 15 people next to George in (15  14) ways or 15P2

Then sit the remaining 15 people (including Gabriel and Charm) in 15! ways

Ways = (15  14)  15! or 15P


2 15!
2. In how many ways can 8 differently coloured beads be threaded on a string?
Solution :
As necklace can be turned over, clockwise and anti-clockwise arrangements are the same
(8-1)! / 2 = 7! /2 = 2520

Permutations of objects not all distinct

The number of mutually distinguishable permutations of n things, taken all at a time, of which p
are alike of one kind q alike of second such that 𝑝 + 𝑞 = 𝑛, is

𝑛!
𝑝! 𝑞!

The number of all permutations of n things of which 𝑝1 are alike of one kind; 𝑝2 are alike of
second kind; 𝑝3 are alike of third kind; …. ; 𝑝𝑟 are alike of 𝑟 𝑡ℎ kind such that kind such that 𝑝1 +
𝑝2 + 𝑝3 + …. + 𝑝𝑟 = n is

𝑛!
𝑝1 ! 𝑝2 ! … . 𝑝𝑟 !

The number of permutations of n things, of which p are alike of one kind, q alike of second, rest
all are distinct is

𝑛!
𝑝! 𝑞!

Suppose there are r things to be arranged, allowing repetitions. Let further 𝑝1, 𝑝2 , 𝑝3 , . . . . , 𝑝𝑟 be
integers such that the first object occurs exactly 𝑝1, times, the second occurs exactly 𝑝1, times,
etc. then the total number of permutations of these r objects to the above condition is,

Example:

1. Rohan wants to form different words starting and ending with P and S respectively from the
letters of the words PERMUTATIONS, in how many ways he can do this?
Solution

There are 12 letters in the given word with 2 T’s and as P and S have their position fixed,

So that,

(12 − 2)! 10!


= = 1814400 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
2! 2!
2. How many arrangements can be made out of the letters of the word ‘MATHEMATICS” be
arranged so that the vowels always come together?

Let us treat all 4 vowels as 1 total digits are 11

We take 11 – 4 + 1 = 8 digits
4!
Vowels can be arranged among themselves = 2!

There are 2 M’s and 2 T’s in the word

𝑛! 8!
= = 120960 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑝1 !, 𝑝2 !, … , 𝑝𝑟 ! 2! 2! (4!)
2!

3. How many can be made from the letter of the word ABRACADABRA?
Solution

There are 11 letters in the given word with 5 A’s, 2 B’s and 2 R’s

So that

𝑛! 11!
= = 83160 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑝1 ! 𝑝2 ! … , 𝑝𝑟 5! 2! 2!

4. Find the number of rearrangements of the letters in the word DISTINCT.

There are 8 letters. Both I and T are repeated 2 times.

Substitute n = 8, p1 {I] = 2 and p2 [T] = 2 into the formula

8! . = 10 080 arrangements

2! 2!

5. How many arrangements can be made in the position by the colour of circles?
Pink = 2; Yellow = 4; Blue = 1; Green = 1; Red = 1 Number of colours = 5; Number of Circles = 9

Number of colours doesn’t affect the position of the circles.

9! . = 7 560 arrangements

4! 2! 1! 1! 1!

6. How many arrangements can be made in the position by the shape of the objects?

Polygon = 1; Triangle = 2; Circle = 3; Square = 3; Star 1 Number of Object = 10

Number of colours and shapes doesn’t affect the position of the circles.

10! . = 50 400 arrangements

3! 3! 2! 1! 1!

Permutation of objects placed in a cell

Formula:
𝑛!
𝑃=𝑐
1 2 ! 𝑐3 !…
!𝑐

Where

n! = total number of ways

𝑐𝑛 = the number of object in each cell if position doesn’t matter

Example:

1. In how many ways can 7 students sleep in a hotel if it has one 3-bed room and the two 2-bed
room?
Solution:

First get the total number of ways

7! = 5040

If you don’t care about the order and you just need to fill the rooms

Divide the number in which the students will interchange in the room

3! * 2! * 2! = 24

5040 / 24 = 210 ways

Other solution
𝑛!
𝑃=𝑐
1 !𝑐2 ! 𝑐3 !…

7!
𝑃=
3!∗2!∗2!

P= 210 ways

2. There are 10 prisoners. There are 5 available cells and each cell contains 2 bed. How many
ways will the guards put the prisoners in the cell?
Solution:

The total number of ways

10! = 3628800

Divide by number of ways that 2 people will share the same cell since the order doesn’t matter

Since there are 5 cells

2! * 2! * 2! * 2! * 2! = 25 = 32

3628800 / 32 = 113400 ways

Other solution
𝑛!
𝑃=𝑐
1 !𝑐2 ! 𝑐3 !…

10!
P = 2!∗2!∗2!∗2!∗2!

P = 113400 ways
Combination

- A combination of a set of objects is the arrangement where order is not important.

Combination without repetition

A combination without repetition of k objects from n is a way of selecting k objects from a list of
n. The selection rules are:

 the order of selection does not matter (the same objects selected in different orders are
regarded as the same combination);
 each object can be selected only once.

A combination without repetition is also called a simple combination or, simply, a combination.

Examples:

1. In how many ways can we form a committee of ten consisting of four Engineers and six
Nurses from a group of twelve Engineers and fifteen Nurses.

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

12! 15!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = ( )( )
(12 − 4)! (4)! (15 − 6)! (6)!

𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝟐, 𝟒𝟕𝟕, 𝟒𝟕𝟓

E1 and N1 together and they are both members:

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

11! 14!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = ( )( )
(11 − 3)! (3)! (14 − 5)! (5)!

𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝟑𝟑𝟎, 𝟑𝟑𝟎

E1 is a member while N1 is not a member:

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

11! 14!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = ( )( )
(11 − 3)! (3)! (14 − 6)! (6)!

𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝟒𝟗𝟓, 𝟒𝟗𝟓

E1 is not a member while N1 is a member:


𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

11! 14!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = ( )( )
(11 − 4)! (4)! (14 − 5)! (5)!

𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝟔𝟔𝟎, 𝟔𝟔𝟎

Both E1 and N1 are not members:

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

11! 14!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = ( )( )
(11 − 4)! (4)! (14 − 6)! (6)!

𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝟗𝟗𝟎, 𝟗𝟗𝟎

2. In a class with 30 pupils, 5 volunteers have to go out to do an activity. How many groups of 5
different volunteers can there be?

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

30!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = ( )
(30 − 5)! (5)!

𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝟏𝟒𝟐, 𝟓𝟎𝟔

3. On a circle there are 9 points selected. How many triangles with edges in these points exist?

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

9!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = ( )
(9 − 3)! (3)!

𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝟖𝟒

Combination with repetition

A combination with repetition of r objects from n is a way of selecting r objects from a list of r .
The selection rules are:

1. the order of selection does not matter (the same objects selected in different orders are
regarded as the same combination);

2. each object can be selected more than once.


Thus, the difference between simple combinations and combinations with repetition is that
objects can be selected only once in the former, while they can be selected more than once in the
latter.

Formula:

(𝑛 + 𝑟 − 1)𝐶𝑟 ;

n = total number of object to chose from

r = number of object your actually choosing

Example:

1. How many ways can we choose 3 donuts form 10 flavors?


(𝑛 + 𝑟 − 1)𝐶𝑟 = (10 + 3 − 1)𝐶3 = 𝟐𝟐𝟎

or

3 flavor : 10𝐶3 × 2𝐶0 = 120

2 flavor: 10𝐶2 × 2𝐶1 = 10

1 flavor: 10𝐶1 × 2𝐶2 = 90

Total: 220

4 donut, 10 flavors (𝑛 + 𝑟 − 1)𝐶𝑟 = (10 + 4 − 1)𝐶4 = 𝟕𝟏𝟓

4 flavors: 10𝐶4 × 3𝐶0 = 210

3 flavors: 10𝐶3 × 3𝐶1 = 360

2 flavors: 10𝐶2 × 3𝐶2 = 135

1 flavor: 10𝐶1 × 3𝐶3 = 10

Total: 715

5 donuts, 10 flavors (𝑛 + 𝑟 − 1)𝐶𝑟 = (10 + 5 − 1)𝐶5 = 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟐

5 flavor: 10𝐶5 × 4𝐶0 = 252

4 flavors: 10𝐶4 × 4𝐶1 = 840

3 flavors: 10𝐶3 × 4𝐶2 = 720

2 flavors: 10𝐶2 × 4𝐶3 = 180


1 flavor: 10𝐶1 × 3𝐶4 = 10

Total: 2002

2. There are fiv e differ ent types of bottles in a wine cellar. How many ways can
four bottles b e chosen from th e cellar?

(𝑛 + 𝑟 − 1)𝐶𝑟 = (5 + 4 − 1)𝐶4 = 𝟕𝟎

3. In the confectioners 5 different icecreams are sold. A father would like to buy 15 caps of
icecream for his family. In how many ways can he buy the icecream?
(𝑛 + 𝑟 − 1)𝐶𝑟 = (5 + 15 − 1)𝐶15 = 𝟑𝟖𝟕𝟔

Combination taken from 1, 2, 3,..n.

Formula: 𝟐𝒏 − 𝟏

Explanation of the formula:


The binomial theorem states that
𝑛
𝑛
∑ ( ) 𝑥 𝑘 = (1 + 𝑥)𝑛
𝑘
𝑘=0

Putting 𝑥 = 1 gives
𝑛
𝑛
∑ ( ) 𝑥 𝑘 = 2𝑛
𝑘
𝑘=0

𝑛
𝑛
∑ ( ) 𝑥 𝑘 = 𝟐𝒏 − 𝟏
𝑘
𝑘=0
1. How many ways can Rue paint a canvass if there are 6 colors of paint available?
Solution:
(a) 6𝐶1 = 6
6𝐶2 = 15
6𝐶3 = 20
6𝐶4 = 15
6𝐶5 = 6
6𝐶6 = 1
63
(b) Using the formula:
𝟐𝒏 − 𝟏
26 − 1 = 63
2. How many ways can you invite 1 or more of your 8 friends?
Solution:
(a) 8𝐶1 = 8
8𝐶2 = 28
8𝐶3 = 56
8𝐶4 = 70
8𝐶5 = 56
8𝐶6 = 28
8𝐶7 = 8
8𝐶8 = 1
255

(b) Using the formula:


𝟐𝒏 − 𝟏
28 − 1 = 255

Venn Diagram

- is a pictorial representation of events and sets


- Sample Space - set of all possible outcomes

UNION

A B

𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝐴 + 1 = 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵

INTERSECTION
A B

𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝐴 × 𝐵 = 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵

COMPLEMENT

𝐴 + 𝐴̅ = 𝑆

Example:
Given that S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) if A is the event that all odd numbers appear, and B is the event
that all even numbers appear. Find the intersection of A and B

S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)

A = (1, 3, 5)

B = (2, 4, 6)

A B

1, 3, 5 2, 4, 6

𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 0 , because the events are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE – Events that cannot happen at the same time.

Example

Given that S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), If A = (1, 3, 5) and B = (1, 2, 4)Find the following:

 𝐴∩𝐵
 𝐴∪𝐵
 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅
 𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵
 𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅
 𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅
A B
3 2
1
5 4

6
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = (1)

𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5)

𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ = (3, 5)

𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵 = (2, 4)

𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ = ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = (6) , by using De Morgan’s Law

𝐴̅ ∪ 𝐵̅ = ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = (2, 3, 4, 5, 6), by using De Morgan’s Law

De Morgan’s Law - The complement of the union of two sets is the same as the intersection of
their complements; and the complement of the intersection of two sets is the same as the union
of their complements.

Example

In a total of 50 smokers, If 40 smokes marlboro and 35 smokes hope. How many smokers
smokes both marlboro and hope?

𝑀 ∪ 𝐻 = 50 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑠

Marlboro = 40

Hope = 35
Marlboro Hope
40 - x x 35 - x

𝑀 ∪ 𝐻 = (40 − 𝑥) + 𝑥 + (35 − 𝑥)

50 = 75 − 𝑥

𝑥 = 25 𝑠𝑚𝑜𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑠

Example

Find the total number of students if the students taking up Mathematics is 40, Elex is 48,
Comms is 45, Math and Elex is 20, Math and Comms is 15, Comms and Elex is 10 and the
students taking all subjects is 2.

𝑀𝐸̅ 𝐶̅ 𝑀𝐸𝐶̅

M E ഥ 𝐸𝐶̅
𝑀

17 18 20 𝑀𝐸𝐶
2
𝑀𝐶𝐸̅ 13 8 ഥ 𝐸𝐶
𝑀

22 ഥ 𝐸̅ 𝐶
𝑀
ഥ 𝐸̅ 𝐶̅
𝑀 C
𝑀 ∪ 𝐸 ∪ 𝐶 = 17 + 18 + 20 + 13 + 2 + 8 + 22

𝑀 ∪ 𝐸 ∪ 𝐶 = 100 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

Probability

- the chance of an event occurring.


Probability Experiment

- Is a chance process that leads to a well-defined results called “outcome”.

Outcome

- the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.

Sample Space

- the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Event

- consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment.

The probability of any event E is:

Number of outcomes in E
𝑃=
Total number of outcomes in the sample space

Probability Rules:

1. The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or decimal) between and
including 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0≤P≤1.

2. If an event E cannot occur(i.e. the event contains no members in the sample space), its
probability is 0.

3. If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.

4. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

Example:

If a family has a three children, find the probability that two of the three children are girls.

No. of possible outcomes = 8

No. of sample space= 3

Therefore:
3
p=8

Probability of Coins

P(head) = 0.5

P(tail) = 0.5

Odd Ratio = Success : Fail

Example:

1. The probability of getting 2 head with 1 coin tossed thrice.


No. of possible outcomes = 8

No. of outcomes: 3 𝐶2 = 3

Therefore:
3
P= 8

2. A coin is tossed 20 times. What is the probability of getting:

a. At least 1 head

P(at least 1 head) = 1 – P(no head)


1
= 1 - (2)20 = 0.9999 𝑜𝑟 99.99%

b. At least 8 heads

= ∑20 𝑥
𝑥=8( 20 𝐶𝑥 )(0.5) (0.5)
20 −𝑥

= 0.8684 or 86.84%

Binomial Distribution

Binomial distribution

A binomial distribution can be thought of as simply the probability of a success or failure


outcome in an experiment or survey that is repeated multiple times. The binomial is a type of
distribution that has two possible outcomes.

P = nCr pr qn−r

Where:
n = number of trials

r = rate of success

p = probability of success

q = probability of failure

Examples:

1. A test is conducted which is consisting of 20 MCQs (multiple choices questions) with every
MCQ having its four options out of which only one is correct. Determine the probability that
a person undertaking that test has answered exactly 5 questions wrong.

Solution:

n = 20, n - r = 5, r = 20 - 5 = 15

p = probability of giving a right answer = 1/4

q = probability of giving a wrong answer = 1 - p = 1 – ¼ = ¾

1 15 3
So, P (exactly 5 out of 20 answers incorrect) = 20C15 ∗ (4) ∗ (4)5

P (5 out of 20) = 0.0000034 (approximately)

2. 60% of people who purchases sports cars are men. If 10 sports car owners are randomly
selected, fin the probability that exactly 7 are men.
Solution:

n = 10, r = 7

p = 60% = 0.6

q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4

Substitute to the formula,

P = 10C7 (0.6)7 (0.4)10−7

P = 0.215
Probability of Dice:

2 Dice

Sum of Outcomes Number of Ways


2 1
3 2
4 3
5 4
6 5
7 6
8 5
9 4
10 3
11 2
12 1

3 Dice

Sum of Outcomes Number of Ways


3 1
4 3
5 6
6 10
7 15
8 21
9 25
10 27
11 27
12 25
13 21
14 15
15 10
16 6
17 3
18 1

Example:

1. If 10 dice are tossed, what is the probability that the sum is at least twelve?

Solution:
PS≥12 = 1 – PS<12

If sum is 10, there are 1 way (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1) = 1

If sum is 11, there are 10 ways (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2) = 10


11
PS≥12 = 1 - 610

Ps≥12 = 99.99%

2. If 5 dice are tossed, what is the probability that the sum is at least seven?

Solution:

Ps≥7 = 1 – Ps<7

If sum is 5, there are 1 way (1,1,1,1,1) = 1

If sum is 6, there are 5 ways (1,1,1,1,2) = 5


6
Ps≥7 = 1 –
65

Ps≥7 = 99.92%

3. If 5 dice are tossed, what is the probability that 6 will appear twice?

P = (nCr)(pr)(qn-r)
1 5
P = (5C2)(6)2(6)3

P = 16.08%

4. If 7 dice are tossed, what is the probability that even numbers will appear 7 times?

P = (nCr)(pr)(qn-r)
3 3
P = (7C7)(6)7(6)0

P = 0.78125%

5. If 10 dice are tossed, what is the probability that odd numbers will appear 5 times?

P = (nCr)(pr)(qn-r)
3 3
P = (10C5)(6)5(6)5

P = 24.61%

6. If 5 dice are tossed, what is the probability that the sum is at least 7?

PS≥7 = 1 – PS<7

If sum is 5, there are 1 way (1,1,1,1,1) = 1

If sum is 6, there are 10 ways (1,1,1,1,2) = 5


6
PS≥7 = 1 - 65

Ps≥7 = 99.92%

Probability of Cards:

A standard deck of cards has four suites: hearts, clubs, spades, diamonds. Each suite has
thirteen cards: ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen and king. Thus the entire deck has 52
cards total.

Example:

1. The probability of choosing a heart from a deck of cards is given by:


𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠
𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠

13 1
𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 = = = 0.25
52 4
2. What is the probability of getting a card that is a king or a heart?
Solution:

There are 13 hearts.

There are 4 kings.

There is 1 king of hearts.


12 1 3

16 4
=
52 13

The total number of cards is 52. The total number of cards that is either a king or heart and both
is 16.

3. What is the probability of getting atleast 1 Ace in 5 cards drawn?


SOLUTION:

There is a total of 4 aces in a deck cards, a deck has 52 cards.

𝑃 = 𝑃1 + 𝑃2 + 𝑃3 + 𝑃4

In P1, is the probability of getting exactly 1 ace in 5 cards drawn.

In P2, is the probability of getting 2 aces in 5 cards drawn.

In P3, is the probability of getting 3 aces in 5 cards drawn.

In P4, is the probability of getting all 4 aces in 5 cards drawn.

(4𝐶1)(48𝐶4) (4𝐶2)(48𝐶3) (4𝐶3)(48𝐶2) (4𝐶4)(48𝐶1)


𝑃= + + +
52𝐶5 52𝐶5 52𝐶5 52𝐶5
3243 2162 94 1
𝑃= + + +
10829 54145 54145 54145

𝑃 = 0.341158

ANOTHER SOLUTION:
𝑃 = 1 − 𝑃𝑛𝑜 𝑎𝑐𝑒

48𝐶5
𝑃 =1−
52𝐶5

𝑃 = 0.341158

A perfect probability of 1 getting all the 4 aces, subtracted by the probability of getting no aces in
5 cards drawn in a deck of 52 cards.

In 5 cards drawn, what is the probability of getting 1 pair, 2 pairs, a trio, a quadro, a full house
and all random cards?

[(𝟏𝟑𝑪𝟏)(𝟒𝑪𝟐)][(𝟏𝟐𝑪𝟏)(𝟒𝑪𝟏)𝟑 ]
𝑷=
1 pair 𝟓𝟐𝑪𝟓
𝑷 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟑

[(13𝐶2)(4𝐶2)2 ][(11𝐶1)(4𝐶1)]
𝑃=
2 pairs 52𝐶5
𝑃 = 0.047

[(13𝐶1)(4𝐶3)][(12𝐶2)(4𝐶1)2 ]
𝑃=
Trio 52𝐶5
𝑃 = 0.021

[(13𝐶1)(4𝐶4)][(12𝐶2)(4𝐶1)]
𝑃=
52𝐶5
Quadro
𝑃 = 9.603𝑥10−4

[(13𝐶1)(4𝐶3)][(12𝐶1)(4𝐶2)]
𝑃=
52𝐶5
Full house
𝑃 = 1.441𝑥10−3

[(13𝐶5)(4𝐶1)5 ]
𝑃=
5 Random 52𝐶5
𝑃 = 0.507