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August 31, 2018

To: Interested Parties
From: Ben Tulchin and Ben Krompak; Tulchin Research
Re: Poll Finds Tied Race in California’s 50th Congressional District Following
Criminal Indictment of Duncan Hunter

A Tulchin Research poll conducted from August 27-30, 2018 finds a dead heat in the race in
California’s 50th Congressional District, in the aftermath of incumbent Republican Duncan
Hunter’s criminal indictment on charges of fraudulently spending $250,000 in campaign funds on
personal expenses. That the race is now tied in this historically Republican district suggests that
Hunter is paying a significant political price for his alleged corruption, even as he denies personal
culpability and asserts that his wife is solely responsible for any misspending.

Our polling finds that Hunter and his challenger, local business owner Ammar Campa-Najjar, are
each attracting 46 percent of the vote, while 8 percent of voters remain undecided.

California’s 50th Congressional District
“If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you
vote if the candidates were…?”

Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)
46%
Local business owner
Duncan Hunter (R)
46%
U.S. Representative

Undecided 8%

The poll additionally finds that news of the Hunter indictment has broken through with the
electorate and that Hunter is now viewed negatively by a plurality of voters. Nearly 9 in 10 voters
(87%) report that they have heard, read, or seen information about the indictment, with a majority
(55%) stating they have heard “a lot” about the indictment. Hunter is viewed unfavorably by 45
percent of voters while just over one-third of voters (36 percent) view him favorably. This reflects
a net 16-point negative shift for Hunter since our poll conducted July 17-23, 2018, which found
Hunter viewed favorably by a 7-point margin (47% favorable to 40% unfavorable).

In conclusion, our poll finds Ammar Campa-Najjar has closed the gap with Duncan Hunter and is
in a strong position to win the election. In a relatively favorable political environment for
Democrats, Hunter’s indictment has already put this seat into play, presenting Democrats with a
once-in-a-generation opportunity to turn the district from red-to-blue.

Survey Methodology: From August 27-30, 2018, Tulchin Research conducted a survey among
400 likely November 2018 voters in California’s 50th Congressional District. The margin of error
for the survey is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

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